Ken Pomeroy's most unlikely comeback wins 2011-includes Presbyterian College

[Darrell KSR]

Thought elicat might enjoy reliving this moment. It was the 2nd most unlikely comeback of the 2011 season, according to Pomeroy.


2) Presbyterian at Cincinnati, 11/19/11
The situation: Cincinnati 47-32, with possession, 9:41 left. (0.37%)
The result: Presbyterian, 56-54.
Comments: The Blue Hose would eventually go 8-10 in the Big South and were given a 5% shot to win at the outset. Facing a 15-point deficit with less than ten minutes to go, their chances were considerably worse. After going 13-of-33 from the field to this point, they’d hit 8 of their last 11. The decisive points came on a Khalid Mutakabbir three-pointer with eight seconds left. History supports that the chances of punches being thrown in the Crosstown Shootout were higher than Presbyterian pulling this off.

Here is his full list of the 17 games last season where the winning team had less than a one-percent chance of being victorious at some point in the game.

Love this kind of stuff.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...iest_comebacks

[dan_bgblue]

If you made it this far, congratulations. Personally, I’ve only had one rule-of-thumb about when a lead is safe. (So this is quite a bit less sophisticated than Bill James’ formula, but it’s way easier to remember.) If the margin is a least 15 points with 5 minutes to go, you can leave the game. Only one contest violated this principle last season and it wasn’t on the above list. It was the 18th least-likely victory and like the Duke/Carolina game, it was broadcast to a national audience in prime time. I’ll discuss that game in the next post and use it to peek under the win-probability hood.

That is an interesting comment.

[blueboss]

Miami of Ohio comes to mind three years ago at Rupp I think they came back twice from being 15 down including one comeback from being down late in the second half. My wife wanted to leave at one point and I told her we were going to stay and take the bad with the good.

I just realized it references 2011, oh well it was still a good comeback game to be at.

[Darrell KSR]

I want to ask Pomeroy about two games myself--

a) Kentucky v Duke, 1998 NCAA tournament, and
b) Kentucky's 31-point comeback in the 2nd half vs LSU.

[Krank]

I want to ask Pomeroy about two games myself--

a) Kentucky v Duke, 1998 NCAA tournament, and
b) Kentucky's 31-point comeback in the 2nd half vs LSU.

Excellent choices, Darrell.

That also reminds me that I was looking for a DVD of that Duke regional final and could not find one by doing a search online. I saw DVD's of various NCAA Title wins, as one would expect, but I gotta tell ya, that game, the Stanford OT game in the Final Four semifinal that year, AND the title win over Utah, should be packaged together.

I have a friend who has NEVER seen the '98 Duke game and I have been telling him that it is one of the Top 5 UK games EVER, which is not an exaggeration IMO.

Sorry about the detour from topic... carry on everyone.