Gorsuch strategy: do NOT go nuclear
The GOP can use this filibuster obstruction insanity to their advantage.
I have no problem with obstruction, when done in normal opposition that's called "politics". But things like boycotting a committee meeting to try and hold up a vote is unprecedented, as is being this insane about holding up cabinet picks. If someone were way out there OK, but in general the senate on both sides has respected that a President is picking HIS cabinet, and gets a certain presumption.
so with that going on, I have no doubt the Dems will filibuster the SCOTUS pick until the cows come home.
That's not necessarily bad. First as was mentioned elsewhere there are 10 Dem Senators up in 2018 that are in states where Trump won big majorities. I don't go nuclear, I let the Dems choke on the filibuster. I do require them to stand there and physically read the phone book, and I let them do it for weeks and weeks till it becomes white noise to the middle of the road voter, and starts just looking stupid.
If necessary come April or so then OK maybe we do the insane, but I'd rather let those at risk Senators sweat, let the GOP and their supporters spend the money in those states to canvass and rabble rouse for a couple of months, see if they hold up.
Going nuclear gets you long term problems and you don't break their back, and the GOP will be seen as bending the "rules" even though Reid did it first thanks to the media spin.
Better to let them hang themselves over time b/c if it does work then you've broken their backs politically. Do the hearings, let it play out, let them bluster. see how it goes for a while, a LONG while before doing anything. This is a long term pick, a couple of months isn't as important as clearing the road overall on this stuff.
Re: Gorsuch strategy: do NOT go nuclear
Mitch McConnell isn't that smart. And President Trump is a novice politician who will most likely accept the first reasonable suggestion he receives in this circumstance. AND........he is already on record as saying that he is okay with using the nuclear option.
Re: Gorsuch strategy: do NOT go nuclear
If the other side of the aisle has any sense left in them they do not want to see the nuclear option. They will relent on this appointment, so as to keep their options open for the next one or two. This appointment should just take the court back to the same place it was before the untimely passing of Scalia and they can live with that. What they really fear is the next appointment that could move the balance away from their favor.
Re: Gorsuch strategy: do NOT go nuclear
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dan_bgblue
If the other side of the aisle has any sense left in them they do not want to see the nuclear option. They will relent on this appointment, so as to keep their options open for the next one or two. This appointment should just take the court back to the same place it was before the untimely passing of Scalia and they can live with that. What they really fear is the next appointment that could move the balance away from their favor.
Exactly. And the odd thing is that this appointment seems reasonable. Its not like he nominated "Judge" Rienhold. Do they think he is going to put forward a liberal? Do you think if they object he will recant and put forth somebody else...maybe Obama? Do they think they are going to stall for 4 years?
Re: Gorsuch strategy: do NOT go nuclear
It doesn't have to go to a vote at all. All McConnell has to do is call a recess over the Easter weekend and let Trump make a recess appointment.
Re: Gorsuch strategy: do NOT go nuclear
Quote:
Originally Posted by
suncat05
Mitch McConnell isn't that smart.
Have to disagree with this part. a lot of people don't like Mitch, but he's absolutely one of the most capable politicians of our era. He's a master of Senate rules and process both as majority and minority leader.
What ticks off a lot of conservatives is that he's a politician, so he'll make deals and compromise and play politics and work to help his party over the principles of some part of that party.
but he's definitely in his element here. he also doesn't want to go nuclear b/c the GOP may need that hurdle down the road, and there are other ways to get there without walking into the political trap of the Left to then say the GOP "cheated" and "desperately broke the rules to stack the court", etc. It would become the focus of the leftist media and also hurt the legitimacy of SCOTUS.
He'll use a lot of other options to avoid or end the filibuster, as he should. For purposes of getting a complete win here we need a Senate vote with him being confirmed. He'll work very hard for that goal: Gorsuch on the court through a normal Senate vote without excuses to give the Left.
Re: Gorsuch strategy: do NOT go nuclear
BTW, I'd try a strategy no one has discussed that I've seen.
I wouldn't just pressure the 10 dems in red states. I'd go try to flip one or two to cross the aisle. Sweeten the pot, use carrot and stick, and tell the Dems privately that if they play these games the GOP will start putting big money into flipping some seated Senators in those states, and even though they wouldn't flip 10 they could flip 2-3 and that alone may be enough, b/c they REALLY dont' want to lose those seats.
It's all part of targeting those 10 at risk Senate seats, but I'd not only go after them in their states but try to get 1-2 to flat flip over.
