Social distancing...please, please continue . Jefferson County, Alabama

This is a Medical Director of Disease Control, Infectious Diseases Physician here in Birmingham (Jefferson County, Alabama). Please listen.

@WesleyWilleford: Hello All, I want to say that I am very concerned with where we are right now with #COVID19. Here in Jefferson County, our hospitals are beginning to see larger and larger numbers of patients each day, and I am worried. Now is not the time to waiver from our common cause. 1/11

@WesleyWilleford: For those in the world who are suggesting that we just "let this run its course," I want to engage in a thought experiment. Let's run the numbers, because at the end of the day, this is a numbers game. 2/11

@WesleyWilleford: Jefferson County has an estimated population of 659,197 people. Let's say that 2/5 (40%) of people get COVID, and we will assume equal distribution across ages ~263,678 people with 15% of that group requiring hospitalization ~40,000 people in the hospitals. 3/11

@WesleyWilleford: Folks, there are not 40,000 hospital beds in Jefferson County. Many of those will require ICU care, and there is simply not enough hospitals beds to care for that many people all at once. So, what happens when hospitals are so full they cannot accept anyone else? 4/11

@WesleyWilleford: So, let's day we go through a few month period where the hospital can only deal with #COVID19. What happens to the people in the community who have heart attacks, severe infections, ruptured appendices, garden variety pneumonia, or any of a hundred other conditions? 5/11

@WesleyWilleford: The answer is that PEOPLE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ACCESS EMERGENCY CARE. Just think about that, if you are a loved one have an emergency medical issue, and you would just have to sit at home and hope for the best. We depend on our medical professionals for the usual illnesses 6/11

@WesleyWilleford: The societal cost of just letting #COVID19 "burn out" is astronomical. The Health care system would be in a log jam for months, people could not get care for everyday illnesses, and people would die in droves. #SocialDistancing is the most powerful tool at our disposal. 7/11

@WesleyWilleford: #SocialDistancing will slow the spread of the disease ENOUGH that our hospitals will be able to bear this burden, and if we remove #SocialDistancing too soon, we may see a fundamental breakdown of our medical system. What leads me to say this? 8/11

@WesleyWilleford: You only have to look at Italy to see what can happen, and need to avoid arriving at that point. 9/11

@WesleyWilleford: Thanks to the brave leadership of @randallwoodfin @drmarkewilson, Birmingham will buy time for our local medical community to deal with this crisis, but the results of these actions will not be apparent for 1-2 weeks. But the results....the results are lives saves. 10/11

@WesleyWilleford: The task before us is great, the determination to succeed will have to come form the entire community. This is real, this is a danger that we all must respect. At the end of the day, I want us to say that we overcame this challenge through the will bonds of our community.11/11

There is nothing in his words that is surprising. What is surprising is the number of people who don’t understand the message, or want to deny it.

I don't personally know anyone who isn't trying to do their best to keep this thing in check, and obviously not get it themselves, but clearly they are out there.

I take that back. I know two people who went to Daytona Bike Week. But they're batcrap crazy too.

The owners of the company I work for shut it down at the end of second shift last night. Even though we have a critical supplier exemption they decided the health, safety and welfare of our employees is more important. (The critical supplier exemption deserves a whole other conversation)

Anyhow, we laid off all hourly employees until 4/7. We will re-evaluate at the end of this week/beginning of next week whether we’ll come back before that date. Being in MGMNT we are still working from home, and popping in to the office from time to time if needed, all while maintaining the 6-10’ perimeter with anyone we might encounter.

After first day at home, it’s odd not going anywhere not because I don’t want to, but knowing I’m not supposed to. Any other day off of work you look forward to staying home, but now it just feels different... strange.


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