For my friends in Birmingham

Get your bread and milk early, and don't forget the tire chains

Storm Prediction Center

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1008 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-111615-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1008 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 6 PM THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A RISK FOR ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS
OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20. UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM SULLIGENT...TO JASPER...TO
ONEONTA... TO GADSDEN. SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR...UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...AND ANNISTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST
SYSTEM...AND DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

Funny--my wife was going to cook breakfast for dinner last night, so I picked up--milk, bread, and eggs (french toast, etc.) The checkout girl asked me if I was preparing for the storm a little earlier than others.

Sigh.

Dan--where I live is about 15 miles south of I-20, which cuts through Birmingham. Give me your expert opinion on what will happen to us. Mick and Darryl also live south of town, but west of me (closer to Mick's beloved Alabama Crimson Tide).

2nd question, if I may.

Wednesday night, from about 5 pm to midnight--any projections on what will occur from where I just told you I live, down south and east to Auburn? I'm thinking it will be ok, but I'm not going to buy tickets to go see Kentucky play Auburn if the roads will be icy.

Jefferson County schools (most of Birmingham) are officially closed tomorrow.

No announcement for Shelby County schools yet.

Boom. Shelby County just called; schools closed tomorrow. Will assess Wednesday & Thursday tomorrow.

I am far from an expert and if I were one, I would be forecasting on an hourly basis for this one. The cold stationary front, that runs east and west, is south of you and has been waffling north and south by 50-60 miles since yesterday and has actually moved a little further south this afternoon. The moisture is streaming west to east north of the frontal boundary and is not consistent in moisture content along the boundary.

This is exactly like the set up in KY a week or so ago when we were forecast to get 5 inches of snow and wound up with a dusting. Areas north of us about 35-40 miles did get the 5 inches. I stayed up well past my bed time watching it all develop and was confident we would have a lot of snow on the ground the following morning. The front wiggled a little and we did not.

This front is gonna waffle around as there is nothing south of it pushing it north and nothing north of it pushing it south. This is the perfect wait and see weather event

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

If you stay in the gray area rain is all you are likely to get. If the gray area sags south of B'Ham and you are covered in the white cloud tops, then freezing rain and or snow is more likely

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/avn-animated.gif

Mm. Close. Just finished my night class, and told them I'd the weather is good, I'm going to a ballgame, but I won't know until late... So check their messages.

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Stay home and rest, and watch the Olympics live.

See how narrow the nasty weather band is? 60 maybe 80 miles wide at most, and it is waffling to the north and south like a wiggling worm. Impossible to forecast more than a couple of hours ahead at the most

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/nd...2110600_se.png

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

See how narrow the nasty weather band is? 60 maybe 80 miles wide at most, and it is waffling to the north and south like a wiggling worm. Impossible to forecast more than a couple of hours ahead at the most

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Set your alarm so you can check it during the night.

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My basic weather channel app isn't giving me a lot of reason for optimism for a safe trip Wednesday night.

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NWS has changed all the precip after tonight for B;Ham to snow. Ice and sleet have been ruled out at this time. Tomorrow's high is supposed to be 36 and tomorrow night's low is 29. 1 1/2" snow max is forecast. Montgomery has rain in the forecast thru tomorrow afternoon with a high of 38 and then a 60% chance of snow late tomorrow into the evening with no snow, sleet or ice accumulations. Auburn is forecast to have a high of 34 but rain only in the forecast until late tomorrow afternoon and into the night when snow/rain is forecast with a low of 29 and no accumulation of snow is forecast

Here in the Louisville area the school board is now squabbling about how/when to make up all of the snow days they've taken so far this winter. I suggest they take a play out of the Atlanta and B-ham play books and just have the kids spend the night at school when the weather gets rough. :)

All schools are closed all day tomorrow, too.

It looks like I could scoot down I65 to Montgomery, then I85 to Auburn and be OK. Longer, but all interstate and not much more time.

Leaving around 4 or 5 down Highway 280, crossing all those bridges headed to Auburn, just sounds like a very poor idea. Back from Auburn that way is just foolish if there's any chance of weather before 11.

I have told the kids already that weather has eliminated us from going, but I am actually going to pay attention to forecasts tomorrow and could make a last minute revision to plans. But probably won't.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by blueboss

Here in the Louisville area the school board is now squabbling about how/when to make up all of the snow days they've taken so far this winter. I suggest they take a play out of the Atlanta and B-ham play books and just have the kids spend the night at school when the weather gets rough. :)

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Good idea!

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This is a little dated, but it doesn't look awful.

Three pics here... One showing expected snow Wed afternoon to evening (drive time), one showing total accumulated ice (practically zero in all applicable areas), and one showing total accumulated snow.

There are two main routes to Auburn from Birmingham. Draw a line between Birmingham and Auburn through Alexander City, and that's the main, straightforward route, through various little towns on Highway 280, over some bridges and waterways. Nice drive normally, good Road, 4 lane mostly. But in snow line the whole way.

Other route is longer in miles, but close in time, as it is all interstate, from Birmingham to Montgomery, then over to Auburn. Some snow south of Birmingham to about Clanton, but then clear to Montgomery then to Auburn.

Will look at it late morning, but doubtful I'll go. If I were just going myself I would probably go, but not with my sons.



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Going to bed, but they just updated and now showing no snow at all.

Unless I'm very confident there will be no travel issues by noon or so tomorrow, I'll stay home. But that's promising.

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Updated.



Attachment 3206

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Since no one is depending on this information, I predict very little accumulation in B'Ham (less tan one inch of sleet and snow), none in Montgomery or Auburn. I know that a little frozen precip can strangle traffic in B'Ham, so drive careful and remember the tire chains.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

Since no one is depending on this information, I predict very little accumulation in B'Ham (less tan one inch of sleet and snow), none in Montgomery or Auburn. I know that a little frozen precip can strangle traffic in B'Ham, so drive careful and remember the tire chains.

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Thanks, Dan. I've decided to stay home, which is disappointing because it was a good night for my sons and I to attend this year.

The risk of the weather in Auburn alone is enough to keep me here. Just not worth it unless it was more important than a basketball game, and it's not.

For what it is worth, the Universities, bus service, courthouses, etc. that were open today are closing at 1 or 2 pm today (edit--bus service stopping at 3) to allow people to get home. It's really a "just in case" thing.

It is 35 degrees at my house right now, and slight rain. The temperature is not really supposed to drop to 32 until late, late tonight here, and then just to 32. There might--might--be isolated moisture turn to ice over bridges and overpasses here tonight, and I am guessing the schools will delay opening tomorrow a couple of hours, but will be 50 tomorrow.

You're right that just a little frozen stuff causes major problems for us. Nobody wants to repeat what happened a couple of weeks ago, so they are going overboard. I said the last 2 days--which has been rain only, but schools closed both days--they should have delayed opening, with an eye toward possibly changing first thing in the morning. I think both days they could have allowed a full day's credit (2 hour delay allows a full credit) without anyone's safety being jeopardized, but I get it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BgTMDVJIgAAL5Kj.png:large

No idea really what this means, but this is updated within the last hour.

Go from Birmingham through Alexander City to Auburn, and that's the way I go 99% of the time. That's highway 280, and I live 2 miles from that highway, so it's very convenient.

I have gone through Montgomery various times--usually because I've had dual responsibilities, like a volleyball tournament in Montgomery and soccer in Auburn, or I was in Montgomery on business already. It's not a bad route at all, just maybe 30-40 miles longer, but all interstate. Might even be quicker, although 280 is pretty swift if you avoid the speed traps in the Montevallo and Carbon Hill areas.

Amended guess for Birmingham. I believe the snow total will be a little greater than I first thought. 2 to 3 inches total. btw if this were happening in KY all the interstates, parkways and 4 lane full access roads would ave been brined by yesterday and we would be driving, watching the snow fall and melt on the highway

Still nothing where I live. I'm maybe 15 miles south of Birmingham, in North Shelby County. I'm going to run to the post office in a minute and check the temperature in the car when I do, but it was 35 an hour or so ago.

Any snow yet? Or did it fizzle? Looked like you would get the wrap around snow from the north west

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

Any snow yet? Or did it fizzle? Looked like you would get the wrap around snow from the north west

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Yup, maybe an inch or 2 here. Depending on where in Bham area, up to 6. Schools closed tomorrow, even though it will be 50 tomorrow.

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Some pics.

This is Highland Park, which is where the Virginia Samford Theatre lives. I've spent many, many days and nights there.

Attachment 3210

You may have seen this pic from me around Christmas when I just posted some pics for fun when we went Christmas light visiting. This is downtown Birmingham, 18th Street overpass.

Attachment 3211

Pretty cool pic tonight from the top of the City Federal Building of downtown Birmingham.



Attachment 3212

Finally, this is Linn Park tonight, which is outside the Jefferson County Courthouse. This is where they start/finish things like the Mercedes Marathon, etc.



Attachment 3213

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