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Don't bother. I have a small contribution to a very large pool, and we're going to win it. Odds are overwhelmingly in our favor. I think at last count, we had over $2,000 of tickets. So don't worry about buying anything, it's already spoken for.
You are welcome. You can use your savings to buy me an adult beverage sometime. I won't have any money to do it unless we win the lottery myself.
With all those losing numbers, my odds just got better. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Darrell KSR
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That’s the thing about lotteries like mega millions. If you buy 2,000 chances you haven’t really lowered your odds to a 1 in 129,450 chance (hahaha); you’re just taking 2,000 separate stabs, each with a 1 in 258,900,000 chance of winning.
$2734 of tickets, but split 50-50 with Mega Millions.
If the lump sum, after tax payout is $300 million, my share will only be $1.1 million. Sigh.
If I were to win, I may put in a pool and fly you all in for the grand opening.
https://i0.wp.com/clothesonfilm.com/...cation-001.jpg
Final total was $2974 of tickets purchased by a very large consortium, split 50-50, Mega-Millions and Powerball.
I like this visualization...imagine rolling a single die and having the same number come up 11 times in a row. 6 to the 11th power, or 362,797,056. That’s about the odds of winning mega millions, which is about 302,500,000 to one.
Shoot, when you put it that way it doesn't sound so bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
83 contributors to our Trust that bought 1487 tickets.
New estimated number
1.6 billion, which will more than likely increase by drawing day next Tuesday.
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All lotteries are of course expected negative returns, as is all gambling, but the percentage of expected return with lotteries is phenomenal.
The funny part is they actually made it less likely to win this particular lottery, which meant the pools would get much larger as there would be fewer winners, and it has actually made them a fortune in increased ticket sales.
They lowered the expected return even more with the move, and it has made them money. That's brilliant.
If I do decide to throw money away, I'll still pick one that only, to use Catfan's excellent analogy, only requires rolling the same number 5-6 times in a row. Not really ever going to win anyway, but it does feel a little bit better, like I was actually listening in finance classes. lol.
Kentucky has one I'd love to win. You get $1,000 a day for the rest of your life. I would be fine with a $350,000 annual annuity till the day I died. I wouldn't be buying a massive yacht etc., but I'd sure have time and money to enjoy the rest of my life.
FWIW, some gambling actually gets the expected percentage return down to very small amounts, and in rare cases the odds actually favor the gambler in some games.
In craps for example, if you max out your backup bets on a pass bet on certain numbers you can get your negative expected return down in the 1.5% range, not far from even money with the house.
Depending on who you ask, the powerball return is around $1 on a $2 ticket, or 50% expected negative return. I found one that did a better job of figuring taxes, the fact that the pot may get split, etc. It got down to about .64 cents per $2, even worse.
Anyway, by point of comparison, on a 6 deck blackjack game the house advantage is .6%, like I said on craps (pass/come with max odds) it's about 1.4%, and even slots usually run in the 8%-10%. Powerball is more like 50%-70% give or take.
I know that's not why anyone plays, but seriously it's more responsible to go play craps with the money. At least that's what I keep telling everyone, but they still won't let me take my IRA and go to Vegas.
We won so incredibly little on that pool; it's being rolled into a new one.
The guy that did it said it was a one-time thing; he's not doing it anymore. So a new guy stepped up--he's doing it smart--limiting everybody to one $2 ticket, maximum 200 participants in the pool. I don't care, it's just fun to have a small piece of some crazy dream.
It's not a bad thing to do. In the end it's $2. I blow more than that all the time on junk food or whatever. The expected return on a bag of potato chips is way worse than the lottery when you factor in the health stuff, so why not spend it on the lottery?
So I'm not tut-tutting people who buy tickets. I do admit to being fascinated by the fact that, within the realm of gambling, you can argue that you're being responsible to save up all those $2 tickets and going to Vegas every now and again and gambling your butt off. lol.
In fact it's interesting Vegas does so well with games that really aren't all that big an edge to the house, at least not black jack and craps.
Seriously I think I may starting playing that one for Kentucky. Same thing, would rather spend the $2 on that dream than on a bag of chips when I stop for gas, and it's got some fun to it.
My main fascination is that they made the expected return worse for national Powerball, and got MORE people to play b/c of it. There's some fascinating psychology behind how these things work, and it works on me as much as anyone even though I know the math.
I’m not tut tutting those who play either. I’d probably buy a ticket but I almost never have any cash on me.
Darrell, did your guy buy your tickets in S. Carolina?
No, but we won $24!Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
Score!
I forgot how many people were involved, but I think my portion was like 1%. Maybe 2% in one, 1% in the other.
I'll try not to spend it all in one place.
I'd throw $2 in a pool every week. This was fun. Unfortunately, it's a lot of work for the guy running it. He has to collect all the money, account for all those in the pool, then go somewhere and physically buy the tickets, then scan all the tickets (so people can see he really bought it), and then check them (although he gets help with that one). I guess it's not that bad now that I think of it if you limit it to the same amount per person, depending on the location. Still, better them than me.
As long as he takes a 17% vig on your $2 ticket buys maybe it's worth it. :) At least that's the vig on a horse race give or take.Quote:
Originally Posted by Darrell KSR