Presidential Prediction...Our own Crystal Ball

I thought this would be a fun thing to do (I might be the only one...ha).

But I think it will be really interesting to see how it changes as the months go by for the next year+.

So, like the "Crystal Ball", log your prediction and put the date next to it. We will call the winner the person who gets it right AND who does it the soonest (so it behooves you to post quickly).

Everyone can change their prediction (just like Crystal Ball) and some of you can even be Jerry Meyer and change it the night of the election.

All that to say...list who beats who and the date you are posting it.

Let's see how crazy things change (like last time).

Darrell, any chance we can get this at the top banner as people log picks? That might be fun. Not trying to add to your work.

Final thing...this is not who you WANT...its what you think will happen.

My prediction is below.

Warren over Trump.

Predicted September 24th, 2019.

Trump loses. Nullifies the election on grounds of voter fraud. Declares martial and remains in power.

Democrats labeled as terrorists. California secedes.

Nostradamus. Lost Quatrain.

Think Biden wins. Do think Trump will contest results. Not kidding there

My 2 buddies above are as objective as the Kansas insiders picking every recruit to be a Jayhawk (they still have a locker reserved for Randle)

:lmao:

Darryl

Well played Darryl. I do think this election will mirror recruiting as it will be a fluid situation

I going to be like Evan Daniels; my pick will be announced Election night.

Darryl

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Originally Posted by Darryl

My 2 buddies above are as objective as the Kansas insiders picking every recruit to be a Jayhawk (they still have a locker reserved for Randle)

:lmao:

Darryl

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Oh, I almost picked Trump. And I will change my prediction to Trump depending on who wins the Dem nomination. I think its nearly 50/50 that he wins. I have no problem predicting he will win even though I won't vote for him. None at all.
I think this election is nearly impossible to predict which is why I think this is fun to get it down early. I am hoping I don't have to change my pick...but I likely will.

What is your way too early prediction?

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Oh, I almost picked Trump. And I will change my prediction to Trump depending on who wins the Dem nomination. I think its nearly 50/50 that he wins. I have no problem predicting he will win even though I won't vote for him. None at all.
I think this election is nearly impossible to predict which is why I think this is fun to get it down early. I am hoping I don't have to change my pick...but I likely will.

What is your way too early prediction?

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If Trump wasn't such a boorish clown, he would runaway in the election. But SO many people will vote against him just because of their personal disdain for him. Close call, but if the Dems go all out in this impeachment, Trump may slip by.

Darryl

That is the same way I see it too. I think Trump is welcoming the impeachment parade too. Not only does he run against the Democratic candidate, but he will also run against a congress that hasn’t done diddly poo in the 2 years they’ve been there.

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Originally Posted by Darryl

If Trump wasn't such a boorish clown, he would runaway in the election. But SO many people will vote against him just because of their personal disdain for him. Close call, but if the Dems go all out in this impeachment, Trump may slip by.

Darryl

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I'd pick Trump to lose in a close one simply b/c of his behavior and mostly his asinine tweets.

But the Democrats are apparently going to do everything they can to insure the conservative base is just as fired up to go vote as the liberal base has been since they lost to Trump. That's going to give him a puncher's chance.

And yes, Trump will welcome the impeachment process. He'll obviously never be removed from office, so this is nothing but political theater, and the Dems just climbed in the mud with a guy who loves to mud wrestle.

But hey. Thank God no one in charge wants to actually do anything useful to help the country, on either side.

Warren over Pence. 9.25.19

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Originally Posted by Catfan73

Warren over Pence. 9.25.19

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I see what you did there. Haha

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

I'd pick Trump to lose in a close one simply b/c of his behavior and mostly his asinine tweets.

But the Democrats are apparently going to do everything they can to insure the conservative base is just as fired up to go vote as the liberal base has been since they lost to Trump. That's going to give him a puncher's chance.

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So what's your pick Chuck? Who do you think gets the Dem nomination and does Trump beat them?

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Originally Posted by Darryl

I going to be like Evan Daniels; my pick will be announced Election night.

Darryl

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I'll go one step farther. I'll go Jerry Meyers, and make my prediction on December 1, 2020

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

So what's your pick Chuck? Who do you think gets the Dem nomination and does Trump beat them?

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Biden will lose over this Ukraine thing. A lot will come out about him and his son. Getting $600K a year to be on a board when you have no oil/gas expertise and no ties to the Ukraine? Dont' even speak the language etc.? That plus his endless ability to form and express an accurate thought will wear on him.

So I expect Warren to get the nomination. The problem is she's only about 5% more likeable and personable than Hillary.

In the end it will come down to the grassroots efforts in about 5-6 swing states I think, and I don't know which party is doing the best on that front.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

In the end it will come down to the grassroots efforts in about 5-6 swing states I think, and I don't know which party is doing the best on that front.

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Warren and Bernie's grass roots efforts are both very strong. In fact, I think Bernie is Warren's real issue. His voters will almost all go to her as they are very similar in ideology. But last time he stayed in the race far too long and I suspect he might again.

I think Warren will win Iowa and then New Hampshire. Biden will likely win South Carolina. If that happens Bernie will have no reason to stay in the race.

Trump wins re-election. 09-25-19

At times I wonder who is guiding the democratic ship. It’s like it’s rudderless. The whole impeachment Ukrainian quid pro quo that was big “impeachable” offense was a big flaming bag of poo that Pelosi jumped on with both feet. Now it’s all over the entire party.....by association......following Russiagate which was a similar bag of poo that Pelosi managed to avoid, but many other dems did not.
I think Trump will win re-election simply due to democratic stupidity and TDS.....
9/25/19

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Warren and Bernie's grass roots efforts are both very strong. In fact, I think Bernie is Warren's real issue. His voters will almost all go to her as they are very similar in ideology. But last time he stayed in the race far too long and I suspect he might again.

I think Warren will win Iowa and then New Hampshire. Biden will likely win South Carolina. If that happens Bernie will have no reason to stay in the race.

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And that ideology is Trump's best shot. it is close to Bernie's, and that sells well in some places, but is a bastard at a family reunion in a lot of others.

As for grassroots, the GOP has done a great job of late, and IMO it will come down to the two parties and how well they work in those key states.

Will minority voters turn out for her? They have an interesting choice between three old, white rich men (same as usual) and an old, white rich woman who falsely claimed to be a minority in order to advance her career.

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

At times I wonder who is guiding the democratic ship. It’s like it’s rudderless. The whole impeachment Ukrainian quid pro quo that was big “impeachable” offense was a big flaming bag of poo that Pelosi jumped on with both feet. Now it’s all over the entire party.....by association......following Russiagate which was a similar bag of poo that Pelosi managed to avoid, but many other dems did not.
I think Trump will win re-election simply due to democratic stupidity and TDS.....
9/25/19

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I see the transcript as pretty damning coupled with the fact that trump held up the aid package, the whistleblower concern was supported bu an IG and Congress was not informed timely.

I clearly have a bias against Trump and believe he is the worst person that has ever happened to the country.

It is maddening to see people who I otherwise generally agree with think so differently and dismiss what I see as such a threat to our nation as acceptable presidential conduct.

Oh well. You can find me pounding my fists into the sand in front of the melted, deformed remnants of the Statue of Liberty.

And Biden holding up funding until the prosecutor in Ukraine wasn’t fired was OK?

This is what Trump is referring to...watch the clip and listen to Biden’s own words....

https://youtu.be/KCF9My1vBP4

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Originally Posted by UKHistory

I see the transcript as pretty damning coupled with the fact that trump held up the aid package, the whistleblower concern was supported bu an IG and Congress was not informed timely.

I clearly have a bias against Trump and believe he is the worst person that has ever happened to the country.

It is maddening to see people who I otherwise generally agree with think so differently and dismiss what I see as such a threat to our nation as acceptable presidential conduct.

Oh well. You can find me pounding my fists into the sand in front of the melted, deformed remnants of the Statue of Liberty.

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It's OK. I find it maddening that otherwise reasonable, intelligent people have such a case of Trump Derangement Syndrome they think he's the worst thing that ever happened to this country. :)

The Transcript isn't damming at all. Hell, it's not even illegal for a President to pressure foreign leaders to do anything from investigating people who may be corrupt to asking them to stand on their head.

But since you think he's already so evil you seem to have seriously thought (and seem to still suspect) he's going to seize control of the nation somehow and declare himself king, I'm sure it's very damning.

And no, I don't get it. We're 3 years in, and not a single prediction about him being the End of Days has even close to come true. How can your camp be so completely inaccurate for such a sustained period of time and still cling to that belief system? It's like continually declaring the world will end next week for 3 years running.

Trump's an ass, but he hasn't drug us into war, broken up NATO, declared martial law, or even broken any actual laws. He hasn't put immigrants into concentration camps, hasn't ignored judicial decisions, nothing.

What single thing has he done to undermine American liberty (given your reference to the statue)? Heck, what law or order has he enacted that even contradicts current US immigration law? he's chosen to enforce the existing law versus ignoring the duly passed laws, and that makes him evil? Seems you may save your outrage for the various Congresses that made up the immigration rules.

Yet he's the worst person ever in the US? Really? Worse than LBJ, who drug us into Vietnam and cost 52,000 American lives and untold foreign lives in a politically limited war? Worse than Boss Tweed and Tammany Hall? Worse than President Harding and the Teapot Dome Scandal? Worse than Bush landing us in a still ongoing war in Afghanistan?

You are frustrated others don't see your perspective, but I am just as frustrated that Trump is constantly described with the grandest of hyperbole without any substantiation behind it other than him being an annoying ass as a person.

He has done nothing that hasn't been proven to be largely commonplace. This Ukraine thing is a great example. He's "damned" for supposedly pressuring a foreign leader supposedly for political gain, but Biden pressuring the same nation and then bragging about it and admitting a quid pro quo while his son was paid $600K a year for nothing was apparently all fine.

Trump questioning corruption with a foreign leader is a crime but Obama secretly sending $4 billion in small bills to Iran in direct contravention of US policy and laws on dealing with terrorists is all within his power as POTUS?

Clearly the level of corruption going on with US and foreign governments is massive. Biden, the Clinton's, all have been paid DIRECTLY by foreign nations. Trump hasn't taken a penny and he's the one we have to worry about?


here's the difference: I judge Trump's conduct in the context of other President's conduct. I don't think those who hate Trump are doing that, so in isolation his actions seem extreme. IN the context of how things really work he's tame.

The US has had Presidents order assassinations, overthrow entire nations and governments, send our young men to war without clear danger to the US, and clearly also privately enrich themselves and their associates with both US and foreign money, and I'm supposed to think this phone call is somehow "over the line"?

In proper context it's not even a footnote. When we discuss how the Russians got ownership of a large part of our uranium reserve and then worked through Canada to ship it abroad, while our leaders were taking money from those same Russians, then we can get serious about "over the line" and "danger to our nation".

If Trump does that I'll be the first to grab a pitchfork, but so far he's not done one thing I see as inherently averse to US interests.

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

And Biden holding up funding until the prosecutor in Ukraine wasn’t fired was OK?

This is what Trump is referring to...watch the clip and listen to Biden’s own words....

https://youtu.be/KCF9My1vBP4

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His son, with no oil/gas experience and no ties to the Ukraine, gets $600K a year to be on the board of a company.

Said company gets investigated by a prosecutor for corruption.

Biden admits in public he threatened to hold up $1 billion in funding if that prosecutor wasn't fired.

He brags that it worked. His son continued to draw huge money for a do-nothing job tied to a corrupt nation.

Nothing happens, not even an eyebrow raised.

Trump questions that behavior with a foreign leader, suggests it should be investigated, and he's the criminal?

I swear I am stuck in some kind of bizarro world. How do I get out of this rabbit hole and back to sanity and away from the Queen of Hearts?

Imagine the outrage if this was Trump and his son. The double standard of politics has become so extreme I don't think we can save the nation, b/c this is pure insanity.

I’m baffled by all the stuff that is in some dems minds. Crazy stuff.....and at times I’m baffled by the right too...but the left is off the chain right now to the point they are alienating the moderates within their own party.

How bad has the hypocrisy gotten?

At a press conference in New York on Wednesday, Trump specifically called attention to a little-discussed CNN report from May, which described how Democratic Sens. Robert Menendez, Dick Durbin, and Patrick Leahy pushed Ukraine’s top prosecutor not to close four investigations perceived as critical to then-Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russia probe -- and, by Democrats' current logic, seemingly implied that their support for U.S. aid to Ukraine was at stake.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/whi...-lawmaker-says

So it's OK for Democratic Senators to create a quid pro quo for foreign governments to investigate for political gain at home, but if Trump does it with no quid pro quo he's evil and corrupt and has somehow destroyed the nation.

Personally I'm all for foreign governments doing anything possible to expose corruption by any US official on either side of the aisle. lol.

The Clintons had done quid pro quo for decades in exchange for real cash money while the left overlooked it and the right was too big of a bunch of pussies to go after them for it. So the idea that any democrat would find "do me a favor" as quid pro quo is humorous. There was nothing in the transcript about holding up any funding. And as the head of the executive branch, it is the presidents right and responsibility to look into illegal activities, after all he is in essence head of the justice department. Why would he not look into the illegal activities of Joe Biden, or any other American for that matter? Not much different then when Obama came into office and decided to go after the Bush administration for their enhanced interrogation. But somehow because the illegal activity happened outside of the US, its is off limits? What Biden did was unlawful. It is on public record with him bragging about it. The "gaff king" strikes again. My Sleepy Joe should quit trying to puff himself up as some bad ass. I mean the throwdown of "CORN POP" surely is enough to prove he is a tough guy. "Do me a favor" is nothing more than a commonly used term. There was no implied or actual coercion, no pay to play, no kickback.... nothing except for a tendril for those intent on impeaching the President.

If the left is so concerned about corruption, as they CLAIM, they should expect and demand that the head of the enforcement of our laws look into what Biden did. But we all know that there is no desire to look into corruption, or the sanctity of our elections. This is about one thing and one thing only. It is about being a pain in Donald Trumps ass and trying to get him out of office by any means possible. They keep with the "Nobody is above the law". Right... because Biden's acts were legal. Because the FISA court activities were legal. Because all the leaks,including the one to how the whistle blower got access to the information are all things the left has zero interest in perusing. It has nothing to do with applications of the laws.

Here is an article that notes how the Wall Street Journal has treated the Biden issue.

https://www.mediamatters.org/wall-st...en-and-ukraine

Save for #45 I am not sure there is a investigation, allegation or an indictment of a Biden.

Some people who so covered in mud instead of taking a shower and cleaning up sling mud on others and point at how dirty they are.

Few are as good at that as one person.

I don’t usually get into these kind of discussions but here’s my take (and I’m obviously not alone): Trump basically attempted to bribe Ukraine to the tune of $400 million taxpayer dollars. The constitution says a president that commits treason, bribery, or other high crimes shall be impeached and removed from office. Whatever Biden may have done is kind of beside the point. They HAVE to impeach. Period.

You’re kinda missing the point....
You can look at any measure of US foreign aid as a bribe because we (whichever party is in the Executive branch) will give it and expect a return on the gift. The problem with the Biden situation is the personal gain to Biden’s son for his actions...no different than Clinton’s peddling of Uranium for personal gain...

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Originally Posted by Catfan73

I don’t usually get into these kind of discussions but here’s my take (and I’m obviously not alone): Trump basically attempted to bribe Ukraine to the tune of $400 million taxpayer dollars. The constitution says a president that commits treason, bribery, or other high crimes shall be impeached and removed from office. Whatever Biden may have done is kind of beside the point. They HAVE to impeach. Period.

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Any chance we can move some of these posts to their own thread on the Impeachment and just leave the ones about the OP?
Don't get me wrong, the impeachment leaves much to be talked about but its a bit off topic and leads straight down a rabbit hole.

The mind of some is every bit as eager to pardon any and all behavior by the President as his enemies are to bring him down. But that’s what happens when you put all your Republican marbles in one mans bag.

He is secure no matter what he does with his base. They cannot go against him at this point. And never would no matter where he leads while president

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Originally Posted by KeithKSR

Trump wins re-election. 09-25-19

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Who does he beat?

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

I think Trump will win re-election simply due to democratic stupidity and TDS.....
9/25/19

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Who does he beat?

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

You’re kinda missing the point....
You can look at any measure of US foreign aid as a bribe because we (whichever party is in the Executive branch) will give it and expect a return on the gift. The problem with the Biden situation is the personal gain to Biden’s son for his actions...no different than Clinton’s peddling of Uranium for personal gain...

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I would describe the allegation to be more about blackmail over a bribe.

The President ordered military aid that had been appropriate by Congress to an ally be held up with the clear intent to have that foreign power investigate a US citizen that was and still is perceived to be the President's chief rival for re-election.

The intent to hold up the military aid package for the Ukraine to better defend itself against Russian aggression was not in the interests of the nation or for some grander ideal about thwarting corruption.

It was clearly a self-serving threat to gain a tangible benefit to his own re-election efforts by dragging Biden through the mud.

The allegation, which the transcript supports, is a statement of abuse of power and abdication of the duties of the Commander in Chief of the US armed forces.

I think it will eventually be Elizabeth Warren after a brutal primary run on the Democratic side.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Who does he beat?

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Will minority voters turn out for her?

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Depends on if you mean the primaries or the general. In the primaries, Biden will carry that vote. So me predicting her to win really comes down to when Bernie exits the race.
My best guess and prediction is that Warren wins Iowa and New Hampshire. And then Biden wins South Carolina. If Bernie drops out at that point (and he should)...I think most of his voters go to her and she wins the nomination.

In the general, absolutely minorities will come out for her.

2016 was a perfect storm for Trump. He was masterful at getting the base riled up with his red meat talk (Wall, Guns, etc). AND...no one gets the Republican base fired up like a Clinton. So even if the base didn't like Trump...they hated Hillary enough to come out and vote. Clinton received almost the identical votes Obama did. But Trump (and Hillary) had the base fired up and they came out and voted.
I think the same happens in 2020. The Rep base will mirror 2016. But the Dem base will come out like never before. And it won't matter who the nominee is. It will as much be an Anti-Trump vote as a Pro-Biden/Warren/etc vote.
Trump and Clinton were (according to 538) the least popular nominees in Presidential History. Trump actually received a smaller share of the National vote than Romney did. Its just that Clinton was decidedly less of a share than Obama. Those voters went 3rd party in 2016.
I really don't believe they will in 2020 for numerous reasons.

As is often the case...this will come down to independents in a few key states. There may not be a Dem candidate those independents like a lot (although polls show Biden is that one). But polls show they can't stand Trump.
So it will come down to whether he can change that. And whether a Dem candidate can secure their vote as opposed to them going 3rd party again.

To me, he paints her as the leftist as she has portrayed herself to be in the primary. Secondly, he paints her as a member of the current “do nothing” Congress that has resisted nearly everything he has done as President. Despite being resisted, the economy is still ticking along. To me Trump has the benefit of a lot of things that Obama set in place, and he has removed some of the restrictions that Obama placed in law allowing more growth than what was anticipated. It’s “the economy, stupid” that Bill Clinton coined in the 90s and Trump will benefit from that.
The same beat of accusation that has followed Trump for nearly 3 years will be her drumbeat.....and IMO the public is tiring of that. That’s why I see it as democratic stupidity because they have little more to run on than that. Had a legislative agenda been occurring in this Congress, there would be way more for them to run on IMO.

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Originally Posted by UKHistory

Here is an article that notes how the Wall Street Journal has treated the Biden issue.

https://www.mediamatters.org/wall-st...en-and-ukraine

Save for #45 I am not sure there is a investigation, allegation or an indictment of a Biden.

Some people who so covered in mud instead of taking a shower and cleaning up sling mud on others and point at how dirty they are.

Few are as good at that as one person.

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I must have missed the link where Trump's son has been flying around Air Force One collecting Board Directorships and investment funds with foreign powers the last 3 years.

No there's no investigation of him. he's a Democrat, and the mass media will sweep that under the rug. For the same reason key Democrats who are accused of wearing blackface or of beating a woman don't get the same treatment as some general person or a conservative.

Trump asked Ukraine to investigate a person who probably does in fact need investigation. Yes it's a political rival. OK, key Democratic Senators asked Ukraine to investigate people that would possibly come back on Trump, and in fact did tie that to possible funding decisions. They sure didn't ask for investigation of people in their political tent. Aren't they in trouble too?

Just end the double standards. Judge Trump the same way the Clintons and Bidens are judged (in which case he's squeaky clean) or give them the same years long prostate exam and see what happens.

Equality before the law is the cornerstone of our nation, and any nation ruled by laws and not men.