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You honestly think he will last 4 years?
The young Democrats wants everything given to them so the free healthcare speaks to them.
It’s a pretty sad time and as I have said how anyone can support a party that elects Omar and allows riots and the destruction of cities while supporting terrorist is beyond me.
The thing I find very interesting is that Democrats believe everything they are told like mindless zombies.
I don’t put a lot of stock in polls, especially polls still using the 2012 turnout model. The polls had Desantis down by 7% the day before the 2018 general election in Florida. We saw how that turned out.
A couple of interesting things at work. 56% of the people say they are better off now than they were four years ago. The Gallup poll question about who people think will win the election favors Trump with 56%.
The enthusiasm factor heavily favors Trump, Biden creates a lot less enthusiasm than Hillary did.
The last 4 years were some of the best ever for this nation; record stock market, record low unemployment, highest standard of living ever, no wars anywhere, NATO nations actually paying their fair share, best prepared military since WW2, 3 outstanding SCOTUS justices named, etcQuote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
Darryl
We are not a nation that likes true facts and a real fact based narrative anymore.
There is no way Biden wins, but it is very possible that Trump loses. If the latter should happen, God help us.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Watching the conformation hearing the Democrats should be embarrassed, anyone supporting that narrative needs to ask themselves if they are true hard working Americans and really be honest about that.
Democrats keep screwing around and there will be a second Civil War.
Just honestly the Democrats cut at true American core values.
As of today, Trump is not only going to lose but he’s going to lose Bigly. He simply can’t help himself. He’s amazing at political theatre. And he’s absolutely terrible at politics.Quote:
Originally Posted by blueboss
All depends on what to consider politics...Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
The October Surprise just hit Biden...this is going to tilt the battleground states BIGLY
You put a lot of faith in polls that use a model with an 18% lower GOP turnout than actually voted in 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Puma conveniently omitted the poll that has 56% of Americans feeling like they are living better now than they were in 2016. Another poll; 56% of Americans think Trump will be reelectedQuote:
Originally Posted by KeithKSR
Darryl
Incorrect. I am using polling averages. All of the polls use different metrics for how they get their numbers. Most poll for all scenarios: likely voters, unlikely voters, higher turnout, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithKSR
Btw, be careful what you wish for....in almost every poll that expects record turnout, it HELPS Biden, not hurts him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darryl
It wasn't convenient. I am listing polls of who people will vote for since that is what this thread is about. If polls had Trump ahead, I would gladly list those. If you want to believe Trump is going to win...have at it. Who we think is going to win isn't going to change who wins.
As of today, Biden would win in a landslide. Can that change in less than 3 weeks? Sure. For the record, I expect the race to tighten (as I mentioned above) before the election because I think a 10+ point victory is just impractical in our divided country.
Btw, just yesterday Lindsey Graham literally said during the Supreme Court hearing that Dems had a good chance to win the White House (I doubt that will go over well with Trump).
Quote:
Originally Posted by VirginiaCat
Betcha it doesn't. This Burisma stuff has been around since forever. People simply don't care (except for people already voting for Trump). This is one major thing that has changed in 4 years. The amount of "October surprises" from both sides that have been thrown at both candidates for the past 4 years has muted any benefit they would have had in past elections.
If an October surprise came out about Trump with some new Russia info, or an affair he had, or that he took a hooker to a wedding (true)...would that "hit the battleground states bigly"? No. People just don't care about this stuff anymore.
Look at my post above back in the beginning of March. Burisma didn't matter then and it doesn't matter now. Everyone is immune to this stuff. The race will tighten because that's the natural regression of things. But its going to take something far bigger than Burisma to change the landscape of the race.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menson
True.
Btw, this is all I mean by this (and Chuck has posted the same stuff): Trump cannot get out of his own way. To win an election, you can't simply appeal to your base. It doesn't work. Only 25%-30% of voters are Republicans. 40% are Democrats. And 30% are Independents.
Granted, there are many independents that are firm Trump or Biden supporters. But, you have to win those moderate/undecided independents in order to win the election (as well as getting out your base to vote).
Trump is amazing at getting people out to vote. Both people that love him and hate him. We will have record numbers of voters this election because of Donald Trump. His base will come out. And those who can't stand him will come out. But this election (as every election) is decided by the 10% of those people who are in the middle.
In 2016, Trump had two things go for him:
1. He won the undecided voters big time over Clinton (he won these folks largely on the "outsider" pitch)
2. Clinton's base did not show up in large numbers. She was unlikable and too many people believed she was going to win anyways.
Neither of these things are true in 2020.
1. Right now, Biden is way ahead of Trump with independents
2. Biden has high likability ratings (always has) and no one wants a repeat of 2016 (meaning people are coming out to vote).
Trump cannot do much about #2 but he could have done a lot about #1. And that is what I mean by him being so bad at politics (I didn't mean as someone who governs...that's a different topic): time and time again, he has squandered opportunities to appeal to independents, and instead chosen to win over his base over and over (which makes no political sense). In fact, Trump is so popular with his base (as popular as Reagan) that he easily could have given all of his attention to independents and kept his base intact.
I think these are valid questions. Just a few comments of my own on these:Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithKSR
1. Florida Governor Race - "Polls" didn't have Gillum winning by 7. There was a poll that did a week before the vote. But that was the highest. The last 5 polls before that vote had Gillum +1, Desantis +3, Gillum +2, Gillum +4, Gillum +3.
All of those but one are within the margin of error. Desantis won by less than 1%. Also, Gillum had those last minute text messages come out the week of the election which hurt him. Meaning, those polls were largely accurate.
Again, you can do an amazing amount of reading on this at fivethirtyeight.com as they rate pollsters based on their accuracy in past elections. Some polls are very good. Some are not. Some use old methodologies. Almost all changed those after 2016. No matter what anyone believes about pollsters...it embarrasses them to be wrong. They literally exist to be correct.
2. The Gallup polls - Those polls were conducted in September (Trump tweeted about them last week so it made the rounds). And yes, people feeling they are better off than 4 years ago even in the midst of Covid IS a good sign for Trump. It is not surprising that a slight majority think he will win. Incumbents usually do. And I have many Dem friends who will of course vote for Biden but still think Trump is going to win. But that is all anecdotal. "All we ever see are Trump flags". And then I remind them that we are in California. And Trump will lose by 30 here. Flags are no indication of who will win.
But, you can't use or trust a poll when you like it but ignore it when you don't. In that exact same Gallup poll, Trump forgot to tweet that those polled found Biden to be more (than Trump):
- Likable
- Honest
- Trustworthy
- Likely to care about your needs
- Display Good Judgment
- Manage the government properly
- Keep his promises
- Bring about change that is needed
The only category Trump won was "strong". Those categories is why Biden is leading in Gallup and other polls.
3. Enthusiastic factor - I mentioned this above but will do so again. Trump is his own worst enemy here. Yes, his base is unbelievably enthusiastic. They will turn out. But Trump has those against him unbelievably enthusiastic. I am a great example of this. I didn't vote for Biden in the primary. I wouldn't call me "an enthusiastic Biden voter". But I will walk through Hell and high water to vote Trump out of office. Every single person I know feels the same (whether they love him or hate him....they are voting). We will have the biggest turnout in election history.
I think that voting because of hate is wrong, you vote on actions and results.
If you are for higher taxes, a socialist government and support those who wish to defund the police and allow the destruction of America you vote for Biden.
Quote:
Originally Posted by catmanjack
Can you just stop with the broad paint brush insults please? Its no better than someone saying all Republicans are racist, homophobic xenophobes. Or that Trump voters are in the cult of Trump.
There are plenty of people on both sides of the aisle that are "mindless zombies that believe everything they are told".
Gotcha.Quote:
Originally Posted by catmanjack
Voicing an opinion, plain and simple!
You seem fair minded; exactly what is wrong with his statement? Biden has promised to increase taxes on day 1; the majority of Democrats certainly favor socialistic views; Liberals have realized defund the police is political suicide so they will simply cut revenue to the Police; they want free college, Medicare for all (including non-citizens), reparations to African Americans, etcQuote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
I certainly don’t love Trump but I favor most of his policies. If I may ask, which ones do you disagree with?
Thanks, Darryl
Many, but that is for a different thread. Like I said earlier (which is easy to miss since I posted a lot...ha), I don't debate or even talk politics anymore. I am not going to change my mind. You are not going to change your mind. So it simply leads to insults, name calling and endless arguing. And I don't just mean on this board...I mean at all. I have friends and family on both sides of the aisle. Fwiw, I don't talk/debate Biblical doctrine with them either...haha. Just too much animosity, hyperbole and extreme thinking these days to have honest and good debates. And that is for everyone on both sides of the aisle. Its just too ugly and that's a shame.Quote:
Originally Posted by Darryl
I like and respect you Darryl and honestly just prefer talking sports and basketball with all of you guys.
Its a fine line...I know. But I ALSO enjoy talking about campaign strategy etc. I always have. I get just as vested in Republican primaries as I do Democratic ones. I'm weird because most people hate the campaign side of things. I'm a numbers/analytics/statistics fan...so I started this thread a long time ago because I thought it would be a fun exercise to see how much things changed over time (with the Dem primaries starting up). I love watching polls (no matter who is winning) and seeing trends, etc. That is my interest here on this thread.
There are other threads on this forum to debate policies etc. There are still a couple of libs on here to answer those questions if you guys have them.
Btw, great poll just released for Graham in South Carolina. Dems don't need SC to win the Senate but it certainly is one of a few they think they have a legit shot in.
The Democrats are 100% losing a Senate seat in AlabamaQuote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Darryl
Ha, yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Darryl
Like I said, most of the Senate seats are pretty easy to predict. For Dems to win control, they have to win Maine and then NC or Iowa. Same with Republicans.
Oh man...this will not help Trump's poll numbers:
"But the reality is that he careened from curb to curb. First, he ignored COVID. And then he went into full economic shutdown mode. He was the one who said 10 to 14 days of shutdown would fix this. And that was always wrong. I mean, and so I don't think the way he's lead through COVID has been reasonable or responsible, or right.”
“The way he kisses dictators' butts. I mean, the way he ignores the Uighurs, our literal concentration camps in Xinjiang. Right now, he hasn't lifted a finger on behalf of the Hong-Kongers," he said. "The United States now regularly sells out our allies under his leadership, the way he treats women, spends like a drunken sailor. The ways I criticize President Obama for that kind of spending; I've criticized President Trump for as well. He mocks evangelicals behind closed doors. His family has treated the presidency like a business opportunity. He's flirted with white supremacists."
“If young people become permanent Democrats because they've just been repulsed by the obsessive nature of our politics, or if women who were willing to still vote with the Republican Party in 2016 decide that they need to turn away from this party permanently in the future,"
"I've spent lots of the of the last year on a campaign bus, and when you listen to Nebraskans, they don't really want more rage tweeting as a new form of entertainment," he said. "I think the overwhelming reason that President Trump won in 2016 was simply because Hillary Clinton was literally the most unpopular candidate in the history of polling.”
Conservative Republican Ben Sasse on Donald Trump
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...s-evangelicals
Ouch. I suppose if you wanted reasons why some will vote Trump out... just use those.
All great narratives but there are just as many to not support the Democratic Party.
Support of a socialist movement
Higher taxes
Medical for all
Support of BLM/Antifa both domestic terrorist groups.
There is enough of this to go back and forth.
Mainly the demographics have changed with the 18-30 year olds in that most want everything given to them and do not believe in earning their own respect and the Democratic Party has tailored their narrative in that direction.
It’s all about if you believe in America and unfortunately many could careless!
Reposting this here from Darryl as it’s pertinent to this discussion:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...-edge-jpmorgan
While voter registration is encouraging for Trump and the GOP, it is “only one variable in determining the election outcome,” the JPMorgan team wrote, noting that the results should not be used to predict a state’s outcome.
First time voter myself and actually enjoy hearing others debate why each side is the least wrong.
We might ease up on the nastiness that prevents many from participating here. Statements Like..
I [I]
If you are for corporate control of a fascist style government and support those who wish to wield law enforcement as a means to maintain power, manipulate every grey area of society, attack the system of government that has served this country well for over two hundred years,! allow the destruction of the America of, by, and for the people..you vote for Trump.
There are many issues that separate the two parties and some that could unite them absent such broad based and hateful accusations meant to ridicule and attack anyone with a different opinion. Things are always much more complex than stinging political one liners attempt to address.
It is very difficult to beat incumbent senators. The most vulnerable are those that are completing unexpired terms that were filled by special elections or appointments over the last few years.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
The only way it makes a difference is if some serious fire comes out on it, more than has been there.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
And here we sit, just like 2016. We either vote for a guy with the personality of sandpaper and the poise of PT Barnum, or we vote for a corrupt career politician who has been happy to sell his position for profit. Exactly like 2016 and Hillary.
Ha. I understand your point.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
From a polling standpoint there are two huge differences between this year and 2016 (and I know you know this and it wasn’t your point):
1. Trump is now an incumbent with a record. For better or for worse depending on your point of view on taxes, judges, Covid etc.
2. Biden is far more likable than Hillary. And I mean that is what polls show. As Sasse said, Hillary was literally the least liked candidate in history. Biden is well liked by just about everyone. That matters.
In 2016, people stayed home. They are clearly not this year as we are already at record numbers with early voting. Who that benefits...time will tell (I think Biden).
The early voting numbers are up primarily because more people are being encouraged to vote earlier due to COVID. A lot of locales include mail in ballots in those early vote numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
The variables of the outcome are very different, but the choice remains the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
or close to the same. No one is more corrupt than the Clinton's, but Biden is a 40 year Washington guy who, despite his "aw shucks" image, is at a minimum letting his family run amok on his behalf. he's also an idiot, and Hillary was definitely not.
Trump's record, if people would stop focusing on the absurd trimmings it's been delivered with, actually isn't that bad. We can debate Covid, but otherwise he's actually really strong. People aren't sick of a strong economy, or even telling our allies to start ponying up, but they are tired of his personality.
As for Sen. sasse, I agree with his broad strokes, but he's wrong to use China and the "dictator's butts" thing. He's actually been tougher with China than any POTUS since we opened relations with China, and other than escalating the trade war he already started I'm not sure what else he's supposed to do over the camps and the Hong Kong and other expansions.
But basically the choices are the same. Biden is a lifelong insider who will keep the corrupt boat steaming along without rocking it, and Trump actually has a good record but his only way to rock the boat many want rocked is to scream like a lunatic.
Trump is only losing b/c of his personality. Trump won this state by 30 points and I still can count on one hand all the people who actually like his approach. Now, many like that he will stand up to the media and the establishment, but they don't care for exactly how he does it. Calling out the media is great, no one deserves it more than they do, but calling them childish names isn't the way to do it.
Trump speaks to the patriotism of America and that has nothing to do with the race of individuals.
I view the Democratic platform as one that’s tearing down America.
Bloodbath. Socialists win presidency and senate and take over everything you do in life. Biden raises taxes and returns writeoffs for large foreign real estate investors . Biden packs court. Biden limits Americans’ meat consumption. Biden puts a dollar a gallon carbon tax on highway fuel, resulting in large price increases in food and drugs. Biden court reduces free speech and free exercise and tosses Heller. Ruger 10/22s and other semi automatic weapons subject to Biden’s mandatory confiscation.
The “new resistance” uses more than pink pussy hats.
Polls from the Trafalgar Group were pretty close in 2016 and are showing lots of swing state races as being within the margin of error. https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
Just listened to a great instagram post by Candice and she is 100% correct the Democrats are going to cheat during this election and we Republicans better be out voting unless we want a socialist government.
As she said covid is a fraud and shutting down all the voting sites and the total encouraging to vote by mail is nothing but to allow the cheating to happen.
As she mentioned Biden doesn’t and couldn’t sale out a high school gym for a rally and the Democrats are scared because Trump is winning.