Interesting points.
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Interesting points.
The problem with much of the debate in the last page of this thread is its outdated. Most "liberals" do not simply want social services for the poor that feeds them, etc.
For instance, use Mick's quote (which is quoted often in these debates): "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime".
If you create a food stamp or social program that simply houses and feeds people with no criteria....that would be "Giving a man a fish".
But creating a program that gives temporary/transitional housing to those without a home...a program that gets them a job (that they are required to keep), teaches them how to budget and balance a checkbook, etc. Is that not teaching a man to fish?
Because I am on the Board of a program that does exactly that.
And what about a program that helps those below a certain poverty line get an education? Is that not "teaching a man to fish"? We literally already have this up until 12th grade.
The real issue with all of this Imo is the use of the word, "Socialism". And to the right's delight, Bernie has used it many times describing himself. And that is plain stupid. Most Dems are not socialists. If they actually knew what the word meant. In fact, I do not know any Dems that are. Like, literally none.
Most Dems (and based on Kingcat's posts he is one of these) are what I would call Compassionate Capitalists.
I am not a socialists. I actually despise many socialist policies. But I am a compassionate capitalist.
Meaning, I believe in a free market. I have no problem with billionaires. I do not find it to be "immoral" as Bernie calls it. I believe in anyone's ability to "work their way to the top". I am all for anyone becoming a billionaire if they can do it. And yes, that often does provide jobs for those who need them.
BUT...
I also believe in certain government programs that help those who need it most.
For me, that happens in two specific ways: Education and Health Care.
I began typing a really long post that delved into the specifics of these two areas. But honestly, its just getting into the weeds. So, I will make it short. I despise the model of Venezuela and Cuba, etc, Theirs is very socialistic. Theirs messed with a free market. It has failed. I much prefer the model of Denmark. It is not socialist. Theirs is liberal. It is progressive. They are social democrats. They are, "Compassionate Capitalists". They absolutely have a free market. They do not do very many government handouts. They do not try and make every one equal.
But they do have a progressive tax rate. And even though I am not in favor of their scale, I do believe the model is much better than ours. Since 2018, the wealthiest 1% in America paid a lower effective tax rate than the bottom 50%. That is ludicrous. And their model provides a fantastic health care program for all and an education program for all.
Free Market Economy. But compassionate programs that work.
I am not for giving a man a free fish every day. But I am for giving a sick one a Dr. and then teaching him how to fish by offering him higher education. And I'm ok with the wealthiest being taxed to help pay for it.
That's what i would have said if i could have said it so profoundly.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
:unworthy:
In Denmark the tax rate on the citizen there is 45% of their income. The problem with that being applied here in the US is nearly half of the citizens in the US are untaxed and drawing from the pool. You can’t make the math add up with 1 paying and 1 not paying.
1/3 of Denmark's tax is proportional. And indirect taxes make up another third.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof
One third is standard income tax. income from employment or self-employment is taxed at 8% before income tax as a labor market contribution or gross tax. Income below DKK 46,200 (US$7,000) is income tax-free, but subject to the gross tax.
In 2019 income above DKK 46,200 is taxed at 12.16% (bottom-bracket rate)
income above DKK 513,400 is taxed an additional 15% (top-bracket rate).
There are municipal taxes and church taxes that come after that which do add up to quite a lot. But what makes it work is how happy the workforce is and that the benefits (social programs) are very worker friendly. (or available to the workforce) The key to it working is that there is virtually no tax evasion nor tax avoidance (even more substantial than evasion) And industry subsequently has a dedicated and powerful workforce with which to increase profits to compensate for taxation
"Professor of Economics at Princeton University Henrik Kleven has suggested that three distinct principles of policies in Denmark and its Scandinavian neighbors imply that the high tax rates cause only relatively small distortions to the economy: widespread use of third-party information reporting for tax collection purposes (ensuring a low level of tax evasion), broad tax bases (ensuring a low level of tax avoidance), and a strong subsidization of goods that are complementary to working (ensuring a high level of labour force participation)"
And yet the democratic party's presidential candidate will likely be a socialist.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Fingers crossed he won’t. HaQuote:
Originally Posted by Doc
He won’t be getting my vote on Tuesday.
In terms of US dollars, here is how CNN lay that out. Keep in mind average household income in the US is $63K
https://money.cnn.com/interactive/pf...x-rate/?iid=EL
Attachment 9208
There is no way that is feasible in the US. It would draw a revolt, possibly armed of epic proportions
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
I do want to say that I'm very glad we started this thread back when we did. Its been really interesting to see the twists and turns. And its a great example of how quickly things change in politics. Momentum is a very real thing.
I am quite tempted to change my Dem pick back to Biden. The moderates are consolidating behind him. Maybe its too late with Super Tuesday tomorrow but it may not be. I think Warren will drop out on Wednesday now as well. The only real question is will Bloomberg. He is not winning the nomination. And he is going to hurt Biden imo. He has to be smart enough to realize both of those things.
Pete and Amy dropping out really helps Biden in California. Bernie will win by a lot but Biden will likely now reach the threshold needed to pick up some delegates. And they way California is divided up, that will be more than some think. And I think Biden has a realistic shot at winning Texas, Virginia, and much of the South.
The Democratic powers that be have gotten the donors in line and cut Mayor Pete and Klobuchar off, so they are out. That's not a mean thing to say, that's politics. They've been told to let it go either of their own volition or by cutting off money, and that's a smart move at this point.
Biden has been the safe but very milquetoast establishment candidate from the start. IMO the Dems would have been better off with him out of it entirely and either Pete or Klobuchar as the current "stop Bernie" option b/c this is still a very Populist electorate.
The question will be how he gets the votes. I now see Bernie having a plurality of electors but not a majority, with Bloomberg and Biden all three in an open convention. How they come out of that without Bernie as the nominee without fracturing the party I don't know.
I can see Bloomberg even falling in behind Biden, but Bernie's balloon of rabid voters will deflate like it was hit with a BB gun, and I doubt even a VP option will make it work b/c then you get Bernie's negatives without a 100% fired up Bernie base.
An open convention would be fascinating. Havent' had a true brokered convention since the 1950s. We've had a few with some minor palace intrigue but nothing like a 3 way race with no majority.
Oh and Puma I agree Warren will be out this week. Question is does she lobby for a VP spot with Bernie and throw her support there or do another two face two step and go moderate? Does Biden eye her for VP hoping to pull Bernie support?
Or should I say do the people that make Biden's decisions for him do that, b/c Biden bless his heart just isn't doing that job in his campaign.
Alright...I'm doing it before tonight.
Biden over Trump.
I think Biden is going to have a bigger night than people think. He is going to sweep the South and I think he is going to win Virginia and North Carolina by wide margins. I think he will win Texas in a shocker. And I think he performs better in California than many think winning a chunk of those delegates.
Bernie will have the delegate lead after tonight but it will not be insurmountable. I think Biden rides this wave to the nomination.
I think that depends on whether the gaffe machinery within him is suppressed.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Yes. Its not great to be honest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof
But a lot of people thought Trump could never beat Hillary because of his history, lawsuits, weird moments in debates, etc. And none of that mattered. Because what people voting cared about was so much bigger than all of that. And Trump rode that to the Presidency.
I think it will be the same. Biden will have plenty more gaffes. But it won't be why people do or don't vote for him. He may not beat Trump, but that won't be why.
I believe Joe Biden is the next President of these United States. And have for a long while.
You can cash that in and buy a cup of Five Star coffee....if you have the money
I hope not, b/c he's the dumbest, most puppetted man they could have found in DC. He was a moron in the 1980s, and he's only gotten worse. The establishment loves him b/c they run the show and will for sure with him in office.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
Forget his gaffs, watch his comments when he even takes time to explain things. This is the man who, with time to respond, suggested shooting through the door with a shotgun, presumably without identifying the person on the other side, as a method of self defense. That's not a gaff like saying the wrong day or wrong number. That's just not being a smart man. That was in answer to a question about assault weapons and why we don't need them.
I think he gets the nomination b/c the convention will be brokered and Bloomberg in the end will put his people behind Biden, giving him the win. The problem will be that it will totally deflate the Bernie base.
While Biden won't be dumb enough to not campaign in the swing states like Hillary, he's still got some big issues.
But if Bloomberg goes in the #2 guy in votes, I'm not so sure he relents to the DNC. Will depend on the margins.
Bloomberg is toast. He is too smart to continue running in a rigged primary. He will be out this week.
That’s what I’ve been trying to say. He had no chance. Dems just don’t like him.Quote:
Originally Posted by MickintheHam
Btw, I tried predicting Biden would have a great night tonight earlier today. But this is a better night than even I thought.
He is winning states where he didn’t stop once or spend any money.
Do not under-estimate the power of how badly people want to beat Trump.
Voters spoke in South Carolina and now states are following all over.
This is not rigged. This is not deep state establishment stuff. This is Dems learning from Trump in 2016 and not allowing a small base to best a majority.
This is Dem voters coming out in record numbers to coalesce around the person they think can beat Trump.
Will it be enough? We will see. But under-estimate the power of the Anti-Trump vote at your own peril.
The craziest part of all of this?
Biden was +3,000 to win just a month ago. That is just an insane bet.
It's Anti-Trump, but it's also Anti-Sanders. Bernie is as scary to most moderate Democrats as Trump, esp. in the states where Biden blew up tonight. In part b/c they don't think he can win, and in part b/c he's also just very scary ideologically.
And part of the turnout is b/c of Bernie, and if he's not on the ticket I'm not sure those people turn out as strong just to unseat Trump. Some will, but not all.
I have no doubt Dems want Trump out badly. Not news he's hated. People are still convinced he's a Russian agent and is trying to seriously undo the Constitution and make himself dictator. That's a special kind of hate right there.
But not one person who voted tonight was ever going to vote for Trump. The question is how many turn out in swing states, and only one of them was even in play really tonight.
Trump will murder Biden in most every state he won tonight. No surprise Dems in Alabama are going to turn out against Bernie as much as Trump. To them Biden is still a liberal.
It's going to come down to the obvious swing states in the rust belt and Florida for the most part, and people are not as hating of Trump in those parts of the country.
Way too early to call this one. I do think Biden gets the nomination unfortunately b/c Sanders is unelectable, but Biden has massive warts as well, so lots of variables still in these equations, way beyond the fact that registered Democrats hate Trump's guts.
Um, that’s not true.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Biden won Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Alabama, Maine, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Trump will “murder” him in 4 of those 10 states (TN, OK, Al, Ark). He will likely beat him in North Carolina and Texas. But Texas is in play with the youth and Latino vote there. Especially if Beto is on the ticket. Virginia is a toss up. Minnesota is a toss up. And Biden will “murder” Trump in Mass and Maine.
Not only that, but voter turnout was excellent. Especially in some key states. Virginia being the top of that list. That is a state Biden can win and the turnout for Dems was HUGE.
If I am a Trump fan tonight is a worst case scenario. Bernie can’t beat him. Biden can. And this night could not have gone better for Biden.
Oh I much prefer Bernie to Biden, and yes Biden can beat him. But in March Bush I looked like a sure winner for reelection too.
I said some swing states were in play, but some are non-factors for Biden in the general election.
I'm not saying it's good for Trump, I'm saying there's far too much still in play to take much stock in any turn of events this early. Last week Biden was doomed, now he's the likely nominee.
It's just darts at a dartboard at this point even if the Dem nominee picture does coalesce. Lots that neither candidate can control, and some they can.
Biden's staff is good, and the Dem establishment will get 100% behind him, but they can't fix that he's a moron who is now a moron who is slipping even by his own standards. People will vote for him b/c he's not Trump and he's safe, but not b/c he's really a strong candidate people believe in either.
I expect a very close race, but I've expected that since Trump won the first election. his negatives are massive, it was always going to be close.
Btw, the reason why Biden is in such good shape is what is next on the primary calendar. Bernie needed to leave last night with a huge lead. He didn't get it. And he lost two states he won last time (OK and MN) and he lost a few states everyone thought he was winning (Texas, Mass, Maine). And his margins in California and Colorado are way less than any poll had showed.
Next up next week:
Michigan - which Biden will likely win
Mississippi - which Biden will win big
Idaho - Bernie will win but small delegate count
Washington - Bernie will win big
North Dakota - Likely Bernie
And then in a couple of weeks is the real haul for Biden:
Florida
Illinois
Ohio
Arizona
And then Georgia after that.
The calendar is very Biden friendly, not Bernie. He will almost certainly head into the convention with the delegate lead if not the outright winner. And all of Trump's tweets about a Bernie conspiracy etc will all be for naught.
Again, none of this says he beats Trump. Just that I think he is now the overwhelming favorite to face Trump. And with everyone else out of the race (including Warren soon), there are far less variables to change the race. I don't care how badly Biden might do in the next debate, Bernie is not winning over many more voters. Biden can.
Bloomberg got a ice-cold welcome from democrats, who seem uninterested in an outsider. They sunk him at the debate where he was arrogantly unprepared.
They’ve settled on Joe Biden. Nobody else has his intra party connections.
Can I have a do over? :evilgrin0007:Quote:
Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
The old saying is "Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love." I never thought the other candidates would drop so quickly and Dems could align so quickly behind Biden. As always, the lesson here is I'm an idiot.
Biden vs. Trump? The only prediction I'll make is I think I might watch these debates for once. It's going to be a hoot.
Exactly. I wasn't kidding when I was saying I know a huge network of liberal voters and literally not one said they would ever vote for Bloomberg. He is very disliked in the Dem party for numerous reasons. As in, he was 5th or 6th on everyone's list ahead of only Tulsi Gabbard.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsky
The bulk of his votes came from independents in open primaries (which every state that voted on Tuesday was Open except for Maine). When I said he had no shot I meant it.
Connections help for sure. But Dems settled (and I do agree with the word because he wasn't the first choice for many) because of what happened in South Carolina. Black voters love him and came out and handed Bernie a huge defeat. That was all it took for Dems to say, "Him. If he can beat Bernie like that then he's our guy to beat Trump". Literally.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsky
Quote:
Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
Ha. That is what this thread was for. To record the topsy turvy nature of all of this. And I agree, if Biden is the nominee the debates are going to be a circus.
Trump over Biden in a big way. Biden and his family corruption will get exposed.
Trump may very well beat Biden, but that won't be the reason. And I will do my best to take off my left-leaning hat and wear my "breaking down the race" hat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazy4Blue
Dems are voting for Biden. Reps are voting for Trump. So the independents (as always) will decide this election. And I am telling you they just don't care much for this stuff. They statistically don't watch Fox News (or CNBC for that matter).
And they don't care about the dirty laundry on either side. They don't care about Burisma. It gets almost no traction. They don't care about the Trump Foundation or Russia etc. Both sides will accuse the other side of being dirty. So much of this stuff gets thrown out that independents don't even know what to believe. "Truth" has become a bystander. And frankly, to some degree, they all need a lot of purell.
This election will be decided by independents Imo based on a few things:
1. The economy
2. Biden's Age
3. Trump's unpopularity
Biden has at times during this primary just not looked good. Some of that is a stuttering disorder he's had for a long time but some of that is just plain age. We don't live in a day and age where someone sweating during a debate is going to cost an election but if people are scared Biden has dementia, they aren't going to come out and vote for him. Burisma is a waste of the Republicans time. This is the area to hit him the hardest (and they are). We will just see how Biden holds up over the long haul. Trump is only 4 years younger but call him what you want...he certainly is still sharp as a tack.
At the same time, Trump is just very unpopular. A lot of people don't like him. And I am not talking about the, "Trump is a dictator" stuff that gets thrown out a lot. I just mean as a person. He is unlikeable. Independents (often made up of suburban women) just do not like his antics, bullying, lying, etc.
So, will those two things equal themselves out? Maybe. If so, it just will come down to the economy. If things are chugging along and the numbers all look good, Trump is the likely winner. Because people will either stay home and not vote or hold their nose and vote for him anyways.
If, however, the economy is showing cracks (and this coronavirus is not helping), Biden will likely win.
It all won't be that simple. But if often is. They are both very flawed candidates. Trump has his base ramped up more than ever. And Dems will not make the same mistake they did in 2016 when they ignored some key swing states and stayed home assuming Hillary was going win.
I expect it to be terribly close either way.
All just my two cents.
This...but even if Bidenn wins, at least he osnt a socialistQuote:
Originally Posted by Crazy4Blue
One will claim to have had the best and most "perfect" Presidency in history, and the other will be lucky to remember he's running for the Presidency.Quote:
Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
Or both will claim to have the best most perfect presidency...we just have to wait to see what country Joe thimks he was President ofQuote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
I honestly think Biden in an overwhelming victory. I also believe the Senate will flip causing a slingshot action that may lead the country into extreme internal turmoil and violence.
As it stands one side believes they truly should run the country from a far right perspective and has convinced most of their base that the other half is anti-American. Most would understand a total 180 degree flip and squelch their rhetoric...but a huge segment wont.
And that segment of society could be as dangerous to a democratic society as any in history. Just to be clear, I believe the same thing has only narrowly been avoided to this point by the left.
But then there is also a silent majority in the country which will come forward to decide one way or the other how to move the country in the best and most respectable direction.
This election will be a trial of sorts to see just who has been telling the truth and/or who will stoop to anything under handed.
More election lies accusing millions of cases of voter fraud wont fly in this election. So people had better start being charged and cuffed..
And the two candidates had better be on their best behavior because virtually all of America will act as judge and jury while casting their vote. I guarantee one thing, there will be more people vote in this election by far than any in US history..
So if there is accusation of a crime by a political opponent it better be prosecuted by those who control the DOJ...not only investigated. Those people now know better. So people had better start being charged and cuffed..
Nasty rhetoric, exaggerations, and outright lies won't be accepted as "a part of politics"
Those people have witnessed the danger.. And believe those who do so had better start being charged and cuffed..to save this country.
I also do not want to offend my friends here who support a different philosophy. I respect the right to those opinions as much as my own.
So I wont be engaging in a back and forth which might cause misunderstandings or heated disagreements.
I just don't have a lot of time to type out comprehensive replies.
I am sure of my personal political position however...at least, that they are mine. ;)
How long before the Hilda Beast enters the conversation?
Candidate to compete with Uncle Joe and the Bern?
Paired with one of the two as a VP vote getter?
Interesting to go back and read through this long thread. This quoted post is before Covid (or at least before we it effected the U.S. in a major way) shutdowns, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
As of today, it looks to be the most accurate. Of course, time will tell.
I do not enjoy debating politics on here (most of us Dems don't) or anywhere really. It inevitably falls into name calling and insults and its just not worth it. But I do enjoy analyzing campaigns. Always have. When Trump won in 2016 I was disappointed politically, but absolutely fascinated from a campaign science standpoint.
His run through the Republican primary and election was simply astonishing. Looking back, the National Polls were actually almost right on...the final 538 average of polls had Clinton up 3.2% and she won by 2.1%. Easily within the margin of error. The state polls were the ones most off. Those have supposedly been fixed in this "new normal" of Trump. They were very good in the 2018 midterms. We shall see how close they are this time when all is said and done.
As of today, Biden is heavily favored to win (by almost every measure). He has a nearly double digit lead Nationally and he has held a steady lead for months now.
Trump HAS to win Pennsylvania. He virtually cannot win the Presidency otherwise. As of today, state polls there have him down 7 points. With Biden being from there, it seems a very uphill battle.
Maybe the biggest sign to how bad this looks for Trump is where Trump is holding a rally on Friday - Georgia. Georgia!! Obama lost Georgia to Romney by 8 points. Trump beat Clinton there by 5. Right now, Trump and Biden are neck and neck. I expect Trump will likely pull it out there but the fact he is spending money and time in states he has to defend (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina) is an awful sign for his campaign.
Speaking of, as of today, Biden is leading in North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. All states Clinton lost. He is up by a lot in Minn, Penn, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The bottom line is this: As of today (and millions of votes have been cast), Biden has a better chance for a landslide victory than Trump does of winning at all.
As for the Senate, the majority basically comes down to one state: North Carolina. Collins is likely losing in Maine (and she is more a moderate anyways). IF Cunningham wins in North Carolina, I believe the Senate is tied with the new VP being the deciding vote. If Dems win Iowa (where they are in a dead heat) they would win the majority outright. This is will be very very close and as of today, maybe too close to call.
The Dems will hold the House virtually for sure.
One more comment toward the future of elections: It is not good for Republicans that very reliable Republican states are becoming toss-ups: Georgia, Nevada, Texas and North Carolina especially. If Texas ever becomes a true toss-up (and its close), it becomes almost mathematically impossible for Republicans to ever win a National election. And that is right in the middle of the country. But the electorate there and everywhere is getting younger and more diverse. Until Republicans do more to appeal to those demographics....it does not look good for the future. Imo, this extreme play to the base that Trump pulled off in 2016 is devastating for Republicans elsewhere (as evidenced by Lindsey Graham fighting for his political life).
Just my opinion but I think it may be a generation before the GOP recovers from the last four years and elects another president.
If Joe gets the nod, we all need to hope that he gets a brain transplant, as none of us wants to endure President Kamala Harris.