I think Hillary would do the party well just to stay out of it all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
And Gabbard is getting what every single low polling candidate would want: publicity.
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I think Hillary would do the party well just to stay out of it all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
And Gabbard is getting what every single low polling candidate would want: publicity.
Some updates on these just to show trends:Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Trump Approval Rating Average of Polls - Approve: 41 Disapprove: 55
(Editors Note: This is down 3 points since I posted this last week. Even Rasmussen has gone from +4 to +8)
Dem Nominee National Average of Polls - Warren 23, Biden 29, Sanders 15, BUttigeig 6, Harris 5
(Slight uptick for Biden and Buttigeig. This average will be much more accurate over the next couple of days as a new poll had Biden +10 and inflated his number Imo).
Vegas odds:
Trump +120 (He was -110 before the impeachment and +110 last week)
Warren +250 (trending)
Some thoughts:
Vegas is ignoring the last Biden friendly poll as Warren seems to be the clear favorite to them. I actually think Buttigieg wouldn't be the worst betting flyer at +1400. I actually think behind Biden and Warren he is the only other candidate with any shot to win the nomination (and a low one at that).
The last couple of weeks has been a disaster for Trump politically. He has been outmaneuvered by Pelosi imo. She gambled that she could do these impeachment hearings without calling a vote and that she would win the public's support and she has. And yes, media coverage helps obviously. But Trump is shooting himself in his own foot with the Syria mess and then the G-7 stuff. None of that played well with anyone. Obviously, ardent Trump supporters will not be moved by any of it and will justify it all as nothing to see here. But it doesn't seem like the "loose supporters" or independents agree. His numbers are on a downward trend. Again, I just simply don't get the timing of those moves whatsoever (and I am saying that from just a generic political science point of view).
I read today that "they" (whoever that is) have him on lockdown for the next two days. We will see if that holds (I doubt it does) but some close to him clearly see that they need to stop the bleeding.
Again, this is just a current snapshot. He's still barely the Vegas favorite and should be. There is a TON of time until the election.
Yes, media the media are covering for Pelosi the same way they did for Clinton. If this was reversed and the GOP house tried this with Obama they'd be losing their minds over the process.
I don't get his moves either, but in truth they won't matter this early in the game. Bush I was a shoe in after Gulf War I, still lost the election a year later.
Way too much time left. The economy, getting negatives up on Warren or Biden, what Trump could do positive between now and then (or negative). Just too many variables at this point. It's like picking the NCAA champ in October.
That is a heck of an accusation. But any third party candidate helps trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
Gabbard is a vet so I’d hope that isn’t true.
I have to ask. Do you really think there is any non-zero chance in the world that Hillary's accusation is true?Quote:
Originally Posted by UKHistory
With Putin anything is possible. It could be Clinton trying to backdoor a chance to run again or there is a threat from Russia.
Trusting HRC to actually put her country first Rings hollow.
I never heard Gabbard say a pro Russia thing. Whereas trump helps Russia at every turn. Including betraying the Kurds.
Hillary's actions while SOS, along with Obama's make it more likely they are the Russian assets. The former took millions of dollars from Moscow for her foundarion..... and Russian to create a false dossier on her political opponent while the later promissed greater flexability after the election, and waved hallow threats while allowing them to meddle in our elections.
Anybody who threatens the Clinton mob is suddenly a "agent of Russia". The essence of Swamp Politics
Do you see that our support of the Kurds over the Turks has helped give Russia access to Turkey? Relations with Turkey have been strained for a while, and our lack of support for Erdogan's megalomania has led him to reach out to Russia.Quote:
Originally Posted by UKHistory
Trump's move is probably far too little and too late for fixing that situation, but Russia's foothold there started before Trump was even a candidate.
there was a time when these kinds of allegations would cost a politician his/her career. Now it's met with "anything is possible." I don't mean that to be negative, but it is true that what 10 or 20 years ago would be considered far-fetched conspiracy theories of the fringe are now mainstream news, and I don't see how we get back to the middle so long as people accept accusations about Obama being a Muslim agent or Trump being a Putin spy as legitimate with absolutely no real evidence. It is happening on both sides, and is a symptom of that further divide IMO.
This trend in the polls is taking form. One surprises me and the other does not:
Trump's disapproval rating is now at +18. This is double what it was a week ago. And Chuck, I completely agree that we are far off but this is why this is important: There is ZERO way for his disapproval ratings to get there on Democrats and Independents alone. What this means is that some Republicans or "soft supporters" are turning on him.
Now, that is a far cry from voting for someone else. And Trump can obviously win them back. But I think it matters.
More importantly, Biden is clearly the nominee of choice again. All polls are showing an uptick for him. Warren's numbers are down slightly but Biden's are up.
This means that some of those who were in the more moderate camps of Booker, Klobuchar, etc are now trending toward Biden.
This surprises me a bit because I actually thought the Ukraine stuff would hurt him.
Not trying to defend Trump, but that shift still doesn't really mean much IMO. I fully expected it, and it is coming from his move in Syria. That's not going to sit well with traditional strong foreign policy voters, most of whom are either right leaning independents or GOP voters.
But this far out that won't keep them from showing up. First, if he gets some kind of peace accord there then he comes out fine on this issue. Second, unless it turns into a massive conflict and pulls us in somehow then it will be old news by November.
But mostly Trump is still running against himself. The truth is most voters don't like either candidate in an election, they hold their nose and vote for the lesser of evils. It won't be until Trump has an opponent and they can go negative on that person that we start to get an indication of how they feel about Trump relative to an alternative, and that's the key metric.
It may tell us something about the energy of the base, which is turnout, which is crucial, but this far out it won't impact that IMO unless this move turns into a drawn out situation that is still going on next year.
And even then foreign policy tends to drop hard on the priority list as we get close to an election.
I think it was a political mistake simply b/c he used up chips on a non-issue that has little real impact on US troop withdrawal, and he needed to broker a deal with Turkey BEFORE we left, but I doubt this becomes much of an issue for him in 12 months.
But no doubt he's self-inflicting wounds. The funny thing is they all do that a lot. Both parties on average seem to work hard at finding the one person that could lose to the other nominee. Hillary and Trump are great examples. Almost anyone probably beats Trump in the last election, but the Dems picked the ultimate insider with the personality of a honey badger in an era of Populism. Bad move.
Trump's best hope is the economy stays strong and he can get a couple of foreign policy wins between now and then, and then beat up the other guy. No one who is running against him is very strong either, so he's got a puncher's shot at it.
I think Trump building a border wall in Colorado is going to help him. No one would have ever thought of doing that.
And if he can convince his supporters of it we're likely all doomed anyway so...why the heck not. :)
He has no actual clue if it's the State or the river that borders Mexico.
Deep down, we all know that.
Just kidding a bit. Even I almost supported Pat Paulsen back in the day.
https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quo...n-22-70-85.jpg
Not too much of an update this week.
Disapproval ratings are still trending worse but only slightly. Rasmussen has them one point worse for Trump. ABC News has it at +20 disapproval which is the 2nd worst in US History (Bush Sr has highest ever).
The real change this week is a new entrant on the Democratic side. It has been trending this way all week but I wanted to wait until a couple of more polls showed it.
But Pete Buttigieg is officially a contender now.
He's hovering around the 10% mark. But he is separating himself from the rest of the pack in consistent polls. And more than that, he is a real contender in Iowa.
Things may change, but it seems like we have a true 4 candidate race. 2 progressives and 2 moderates.
A lot will be determined by how quickly others drop out of the race, but Buttigieg has a shot if he can win Iowa. He has no shot in New Hampshire or South Carolina. So winning Iowa is key for him. I know a lot of people who like him. And eyes will be on him at the next Democratic debate for sure (which should be smaller because of the stricter guidelines to get in it).
Democrats clearly want another moderate choice instead of Biden and it does seem Buttigieg is the only one making any traction right now.
It's interesting Bush Sr. had the highest negatives, and if not for Perot he probably wins his re-election. That's why I don't put too much stock in that metric.
In fact in that case it was his negatives that led to Perot, where Bush SR. went back on "read my lips". But had Perot not run Bush Sr. was a decent chance at winning even with the issue b/c there would be no protest vote for conservatives.
I also think we are just in a different era. Every President at some point in their term will be unpopular simply because of how divided the country has become.
I am not surprised his disapproval rating is so low and sinking. Its more an important metric to watch to see if/when at any point it goes up. He cannot win with it as low as it is.
I am still in the minority: I think Warren and Buttigieg can beat him. I do not think Sanders or Biden can.
I think it will be close either way, and just too many variables right now. I think anyone except Sanders CAN beat Trump, including Biden. But I think Trump can still win against them too.
The biggest problem for Trump, and all conservatives, is that the left all but controls the media that could influence those who could go either way. Fox counters CNN/MSNBC on the two sides, but those in the middle tend to listen to CNN or the networks, who are also all in for stopping Trump.
Trump's strength though is connecting more directly, and that's one of the reasons he won. He goes around the media as much as possible.
Honestly Mayor Pete may be his toughest opponent, but I don't think he gets the nomination. He's still in it, but I think it's Warren or Biden, probably Warren.
Beto O’Rourke says buh bye
https://news.yahoo.com/beto-orourke-...drops-out.html
Did he wave his arns like a seizuring marionette while exitingQuote:
Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof
How bad was he as a politician? He's tall, handsome, younger, has money ties and is from Texas, and he didn't make it past the first turn of the race. You know you're bad when....
I will be curious if this is accurate. And if it is accurate, will it be pursued?
https://kfyi.iheart.com/featured/rus...ygHT4.facebook
That clown promised he would take people’s guns. Now, as a private citizen he is free to do so. He can start with my older brother’s home (or really, any house in Hazard)Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Darryl
Buttigieg is making a nice run since I last posted about him being on the rise. He's up in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.
SO....I am officially changing my prediction as of 11/22.
Trump over Biden in one of the closest elections in American History.
As you all know, I hope I'm wrong. But, its my honest prediction at this point.
My reasoning:
1. Buttigieg has too much ground to make up in South Carolina and Nevada because he simply doesn't even register for minorities.
2. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and he might), he will certainly get a bump nationally. But I just don't think he can make up the kind of ground he needs to make up in order to win the nomination.
3. I think his rise is at the cost of Warren. NOT Biden. Its easy to think it would be Biden and I've seen many talking heads say it. But if you look at the polls, Biden's numbers haven't budged. Its true, moderate voters like both Biden and Buttigieg, but the voters he is getting are the educated white voters. That's Warren territory.
4. If Warren does not win Iowa or New Hampshire, she simply cannot win the nomination. Those states are tailor made for her.
5. Sanders isn't dropping out. And they will split the progressive vote. And Sanders voters are more loyal than Warren's. They aren't leaving him for Buttigieg.
6. I really like Buttigieg. Most do. He could actually beat Trump. He's terribly reasonable, etc. But Biden has the Dem org behind him and I don't think he can overcome that. It would take a colossal meltdown for Biden to lose a ton of voters to him. I would be THRILLED if Buttigieg wins the nomination. I just don't think he can get over that minority hump.
7. I just don't think Biden can beat Trump. He will get more votes than Hillary because they learned their mistake last time around. Trump won't be underestimated this time. People hate him and will come out to vote against him more than even for Biden. But I just think the electoral map still favors Trump.
8. This is a very soft prediction. I still think Trump is very vulnerable because he is losing white suburban women. And that is a constituency he simply cannot lose. But Biden represents the old guard. Will he be enough to push it over the top? I think no, but barely.
9. Just a repeat....I really hope Buttigieg can somehow surprise and keeps marching up the polls.
I am not sure that losing those 86 votes will be enough to tip the scales for any of his potential opponents. White suburban females in southern KY did not vote for him last time. Large numbers of them stayed home that day as they could not hold their nose long enough to vote for Hillary and they damn sure were not going to vote for DT. MSNBC and CNN had them convinced that he was a cross between Hugh Hefner and Al Capone.Quote:
I still think Trump is very vulnerable because he is losing white suburban women.
JMHO, I think Trump wins easily.
Not one of the Democrat challengers has enough juice to beat Trump.
The economy is roaring ahead full speed. Our enemies overseas are being as cautious and laying as low as possible, the exception there being the ChiComs, but even they are not rattling their sabers too loudly. The Democrats and their impeachment farce are boring the American people to sleep, because there is "no there there". Except that dirty 'Uncle Joe' and his erstwhile son may be at or close to the bottom of one of the biggest political scandals of American history. And that the dirt on Obama, the Clinton's and a lot of that bunch is about to be revealed for all to see soon.
But the bottom line is the economy is thriving, and that determines how a lot of people vote. I just don't see Trump losing to any of these challengers.
Saw my first Michael Bloomberg for President this am. This election will now swing from how much to we have to give away to win the election to simply Hate Trump the guy we impeached.
Trump over Sanders. Feb 11th, 2020
Forgot all about this thread. Changing mine to Sanders over Trump. Hillary loses her mind.
I can tell you one thing. Biden wont' be in it. Got his butt handed to him in NH.
He's the Jeb Bush of the Democrats. All the pedigree at a time when people really don't want pedigree.
Oh, and he's a buffoon and a walking gaffe machine, but mostly b/c he's an entrenched elite at a time people don't like elites.
But if he does actually win SC, then it will be such a fun addition to the soup that is a contested convention.
I don't see it being Sanders either. If you put Warren's votes behind Bernie but the others behind Pete or Bloomberg, Sanders has no shot.
his best chance is that Pete and Bloomberg split the moderate vote and somehow Sanders wins at the convention.
He's winning now b/c everyone else is split, but when they aren't he's in trouble. I know Trump was the same way but I doubt Sanders can absorb many votes as others drop out. maybe some, not enough.
I agree with all of that. I just made my prediction because I don't see Amy or Pete bowing out before Super Tuesday now. And Bloomberg is just coming in. And I think Warren drops out when she loses in Nevada and South Carolina.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Its kind of a perfect situation for Sanders.
Hope I'm wrong as I think he will get beat by Trump.
Had to chuckle at Ol Bloomberg’s comments on profiling young blacks in NYC. I want to see what dance Obama does when he has to endorse Bloomberg. I wonder if he will bring up Trayvon Martin’s name in his endorsement speech. The dems have no focus on issues that matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
I could be wrong, but I really do not think Bloomberg will win the nomination. I just don’t. A lot of Dems don’t like him (including me). My fear is he will stay in just long enough to siphon votes from Pete and get Bernie the bid.Quote:
Originally Posted by MickintheHam
Bloomberg won’t win. There’s a backlash right now with non-boomer Democrats going against the establishment, which is why Bernie leads nationally. And the more they try to tell them how to vote (see Iowa) the more they rebel.
Bloomberg’s advertising on TV is all day and night. He has spent hundreds of million. His ads are effective even if they are full of lies.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Bloomberg appears to be closing in on the lead in Florida. He has been targeting the March 3 Super Tuesday elections and I expect he will do well, particularly if Biden is not strong in SC.
My hot take:
Democrats are making the same mistake Republicans did in 2016. They're waiting too long to consolidate behind one not-Sanders candidate. As a result, Sanders will get an unassailable delegate lead. He'll end up the Democratic candidate, or when the Democrats choose someone else he and his followers will bolt.
This tweetstorm by Megan McArdle comes pretty close to summing up my views on the Democratic primary season.
Trump may well have won, anyway, but this will ensure his reelection victory.
Wow, the liberal elite don't like Sanders about as much as they don't like Trump at this point. This is such fun. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
They're terrified of him b/c they don't think he can win the general election, and I think they're probably right.
In that way he's a win/win for conservatives. He's likely to lose the general election, but even if he wins he's going to govern from so far Left that nothing much will ever get implemented beyond the regulatory level, and that can be undone after he tanks the economy and the GOP wins again.
It's way, way too early to start electoral mapping, but I'm going to throw this out there, anyway, just for fun:
Attachment 9170
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/st...45494738456576
(ETA: It looks like that Wisconsin talk is fueled by a Quinnipiac poll that shows Trump with a 51% approval rating in Wisconsin and winning Wisconsin convincingly against any of the remaining Democratic candidates: https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/stat...65854502432768 )
I understand Warren went after Bloomberg with exactly my reason why he would be tough to win the nomination. If you're anti-Trump that's just swapping one arrogant billionaire for another, using Warren's comparison. Sure Bloomberg has way different stances on issues, but on a personality basis, which is how a lot of people vote, there's just no separation there to create a base for him.
I'm good with everyone feeling the Bern. He could even win, but I like Trump's chances.
They'll get a lot of media coverage with an open convention, and that may give a boost, but if the party comes out of it fractured it may not be enough to make it a net gain.
And Bloomberg can stay in this for as long as he wants, and I can easily see him trying to use his money in an open convention the same way he did to influence the debate rules. btw I don't completely buy that the rules change was Bloomberg using his power and doing something nefarious. Clearly the guy is a contender, and the fact he's self-financed is a stupid exclusion.
IMO Bernie wins the nomination and loses, but also flips the House, and the GOP keeps the senate. Many might think that is my wishful part but not the case. I am not a fan of one party holding both houses and the presidency. But the left shot themselves in the foot with impeachment and Bernie's socialist policies won't sit well with the general voting mass
Do you think that there are enough children voters that do not know what socialism is really all about to get him elected?Quote:
I'm good with everyone feeling the Bern. He could even win, but I like Trump's chances.