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In fact in comparing Trump and Obama the only differerence, besides having complete control over 80% of the media, is that Obama is better at using middle-men. He got Clapper and Brennen and McCabe to act, so he has plausible deniability. Trump just picks up the phone or goes to twitter himself.
Palin 10-3-19
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lol
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Originally Posted by KentuckyWildcat
I'd almost pay to see the theater that would cause. lolQuote:
Originally Posted by KentuckyWildcat
The polls will look bad for Trump from now till the election. They called it wrong in 2016 in part b/c of sampling bias, and I don't think most polls have really changed their sampling.
I expect Trump to lose Wisconsin this time around, can't believe he won it last time, but I still don't pay attention to any polls this far out. It's like the preseason basketball rankings, they mean almost nothing at this point.
I have real doubts Biden even wins the nomination, and if he does he will get good and beat up by next November, as will Warren. Right now they have little negatives but those will rise. How much they rise will determine the election, just how bloody Trump can get either one of them.
B/c Trump won't get prettier, but the opponent will get uglier. Just how ugly is the question.
Trump has cried wolf and lock them up too many times. As the election approaches that will become even more clear and the calls to lock someone up will even out imo.
What is of everyone's concern is the precedent that has been set by the White House and the Senate. When the Dems take back power in Washington, and they 100% will at some point, the backlash will be incredible...and justified.
That is a shame.
I think Obama talks Biden out of running and Bernie is forced out due to health concerns. That leaves Warren but don’t overlook O’Rourke.
I think Biden will hang around, and may add the former first lady to his ticket.
I’ve wondered if she would accept that being that it’s not quite the top gig. Who knows though.
And if is suggested above about O’Rourke, you can just hand the presidency to Trump for another 4 years. He’s put enough anti-2nd amendment statements out there that there is not a way he can swing the states he needs to overcome that.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
Just getting their own piece of Ukraine pie on the sly...
What is sad is that these stories don't even matter anymore. There is such an unbelievably low trust of all politicians that nothing is surprising. And certainly, to Trump's base, no one cares.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
I certainly agree we are far out. I only posted that for a record of how much they will change before the election. It will be fun to look back on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Also, I do think they matter in one sense: which is that it gives a picture of who is winning the political fight over this impeachment mess. And I think the Dems are winning. Well, I don't THINK. Polls are showing they are.
One other note on polling in general: I do think a lot of pollsters had major egg on their face after 2016. Many of them changed several things because of it. I read a great article on it and will see if I can dig it up. But they were embarrassed.
I expect that in 2020 the polling will be much more accurate. Not perfect by any means...but much more accurate.
Btw....for the sake of going back and looking at this down the road, here are the current polls as of today:
Trump Approval Rating Average of Polls - Approve: 43 Disapprove: 53
(Editors Note: This is the lowest average of his Presidency. Even Rasmussen which is by far the most "conservative friendly poll" has him at +4 Disapproval).
Dem Nominee National Average of Polls - Warren 28, Biden 25, Sanders 15, BUttigeig 5, Harris 5
(Editors Note: This is the first time Warren has topped on an Average. The only reason her lead isn't more is because there was a poll last week with Biden at +11. All other polls has Warren now in the lead. The impeachment stuff has clearly hurt him nationally and Warren is starting to distance herself from Bernie. His health issues will not help him either. I expect him to drop more this week.)
Dem Nominee vs Trump National Average - (There has only been one poll in the last week, so I am just using that one. As others come in I will update)
Biden vs Trump = Biden +7
Warren vs Trump = Warren +2
Sanders vs Trump = Sanders +4
Harris vs Trump = Tie
I will also add that because of our Electoral system, the national polls are not quite as important as state by state. So here are a couple of those:
Wisconsin Fox News Poll -
Trump vs Biden = Biden +9
Trump vs Warren = Warren +4
Trump vs Sanders = Sanders +5
Ohio Emerson Poll -
Trump vs Biden = Biden +6
Trump vs Warren = Warren +4
Trump vs Sanders = Sanders +6
General Congressional Vote National Average = Democrats +7.5
Finally, in what many consider the most important and accurate "poll".
Vegas odds:
Trump +110 (He was -110 before the impeachment)
Warren +425 (the only Dem to consistently move up)
Biden +500
Sanders +900
Pence +6000 (just as an fyi)
I would agree with those odds. Once there is a Dem nominee (depending on who it is and who they choose as VP) I expect those odds to be very close to equal with Trump having an ever so slight advantage.
Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Should this prove to be true, Biden is toast.
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/pres...ce/617936.html
Oh it doesn't need to be true. The more this Ukraine stuff hangs around the more it hurts Biden. And I predicted he wouldn't win the nomination before all of this even started (different thread).Quote:
Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof
Agreed, Biden is toast anyway. He was always teetering to win the nomination b/c he's just another bland, oft-misspoken old white guy. His only sales pitch to his party is he's the best chance to beat Trump. If he starts looking weak, over things like this, then he's not a shoe in to beat Trump and then there's not much reason to vote for him if you are a "progressive."
And I use "progressive" in quotes b/c the ideology of the modern "progressive" is about the least progressive political/economic ideology in human history. It's in fact a return to elitism and rewinds the clock to a time before true liberalism came on the scene with Locke and Rousseau and others. but that's an aside.
But Biden was already just the "guess we have to vote for him" candidate with no way to energize people beyond hating Trump. This will drag out as long as the impeachment does, and in the end it will cost him the nomination IMO. Warren is far more palatable to the core dem liberal base and, while she's not much more likeable than Hillary, she's certainly more conscious than Biden.
IMO, the impeachment fiasco is going to cost the Dems the presidency. The longer it drags out, the more the markers drag a good bit of the dem establishment in to it.
This particular Congress has nothing to hang it’s hat on other than this impeachment that will fail in the senate should the House ever vote on it. It has achieved nothing legislatively and there are things more important to the country than the impeachment charade.
At some point, someone in the left needs to handle the county’s business.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Quick update here...
In the latest Fox News Poll, several interesting tidbits:
Biden was +10 on Warren (this is a reversal of what has been Warren trending).
Biden and Warren are both +10 on Trump in a General (which is the highest either have been).
Trump Disapproval is +12
Which seems to say this Ukraine mess (I believe none of the poll includes Syria yet) is hurting Trump and not quite hurting Biden yet. We shall see as this all moves forward.
I think Biden has been very smart not commenting much about it and keeping Hunter completely off the grid. And I think it only hurts Trump that he can't atop talking about it, Rudy, etc. It plays ok to his base but no one else.
As Cal often says...when you throw a stone into a crowd of dogs, the one that yelps is the one who got hit. So far, Trump is yelping a lot.
Trump just yelps whether a rock was thrown or not. He's like one of those ankle biting dogs that barks at everything. lol.
The fear the Dems have, and part of the reason for this maneuver (and it is a maneuver in large part), is b/c of the findings on the Russia investigation maybe hurting them. No one is talking about that report, etc. with this on the table.
And yes Trump is dumb to talk about it, but he talks about Steve Kerr and a host of dumb things. It's his thing. He's an effective politician, but not a smart one.
The good news for him is the election is a year away, and none of his competitors are smart either. Most elections are more about two sides trying to hand it to the other guy, and this will probably be about the same, esp. if Biden does get the nomination.
But he needs some kind of wins between now and then to get momentum going the other way. Trade deals, the report on Russia, whatever.
Honestly given the insane treatment of him and his Presidency I'm continually surprised his numbers are as good as they are, b/c no one has ever gotten this level of vitriol in office from otherwise "mainstream" sources. It's beyond insane, and I doubt we can ever really recover from it. I think your hope of any real discourse is all but dead, and both sides gleefully stabbed it to death, not just Trump.
You are probably right but I just hope not. And def on both sides.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Btw, I still am sticking with Warren for my prediction. I just think when push comes to shove Sanders drops out and Warren gets his support. If he stays in too long, maybe Biden limps to the finish line.
But I still believe Warren wins Iowa and New Hampshire before Biden wins South Carolina. Bernie SHOULD drop out at that point.
Trump’s argument, injected into him by subordinates who understand that absurdity is his vocation, is essentially that the Constitution’s impeachment provisions are unconstitutional. Bananas lol.
I’m sure most of you have seen this by now but if not it’s interesting reading:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...31d_story.html
With what is coming out about Ukraine and $900K that Joe May have received for lobbying efforts I don’t see how he stays in the primaries or how he garners votes at this point. I agree the longer he hangs around the poorer position it places the democratic candidate that does win. I think that will be Warren, however many think Hillary may re-enter and IMO that will bring full on chaos to a semi chaotic situation already.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
I’m pretty sure Biden’s tax returns are public record while we’ve yet to see Trump’s.
Even if one thinks there might be nothing shady there, it’s pretty obvious our foreign policy has been for sale ever since Trump took office. It’s sickening and polls show that most Americans are disgusted by it also.
Biden's tax records may be available to congress but I am pretty sure they are not a matter of public record and should not be. I can not send a request to the IRS and be granted a request to get a copy of Biden's tax returns for the last 10 years nor can I get a copy of your tax returns from the same source.
Thanks. I do not mind being wrong, but I do believe that is a first. I can only believe that uncle joe did that because President Trump would not even reveal his records to congress.
I truly do not want to see Joe's records and have no interest in them at all, nor doI want to see those of the President. I know that 99% of the nations politicians down to the local level are stealing the taxpayer blind and I do not want to be complicit in forcing them to lie on their tax forms.
there's nothing at all obvious about it. The very idea he's hiding that kind of corruption is laughable. Lots of politicians are corrupt, none of it shows up on their tax returns. He has the finest accounting and legal firms in the nation working for him, it's not going to show up there if it exists.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
It's not Joe Biden's returns that are interesting. Its those of his son and associates. That's how this game works.