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I just went back and read the first 4 pages of this thread--not to see who was right, wrong or in-between, but just to see what we were all thinking as things were getting weirder and weirder. Makes late February-early March feel like it was a long time ago.
I still check on this thread. Ohio hasn’t hit 100K cases as was asserted in March, but may with a the next couple of weeks.
And here we are. Week ending 8/1 was lowest mortality rate since March 14.
We are 6 weeks into the opening of FL. That was supposed to be the "Mortality Week". It is not.
In fact, we are seeing continuing declines in mortality rates. As percent of population you are more likely to die from many other causes.
Simply put, OPEN THE HELL UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
And then there are reports like this. Mortality rates are only part of the problem with this virus..
"Bacon said she has seen an alarming number of young people in the ICU, and those who are discharged have a long recovery process.
“Hospitals are busting at the seams here,” said Angela Bacon. “We have 25 and 28-year-olds who can’t walk up three steps without getting winded, and they are two months out of their COVID diagnosis.”
Bacon said since the pandemic reached her area of Florida, every intensive care unit filled up in one weekend. And the growing number of coronavirus cases in Florida is alarming."
“For me it’s tougher because I don’t see an end in sight here,” she said. “I have no idea when this is going to get better for us down here.”
https://www.wpxi.com/news/top-storie...FY3ESFK5URMOI/
Anecdotal! Follow the science.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
you only follow the science when it supports your point of view. Trump has followed the science all along. He did what Fauci wanted, unless congress or the state/city blocked him. Fauci said masks not needed so Trump went with no masks until Fauci said needed them. Trump did not want to close the economy but Fauci did, so economy closed. Trump also recommended Hydroxychloroquine which multiple scientific outlets have supported (links #1), but the antitrump narrative says he did not follow the science. Should be he did not follow their science.Quote:
Originally Posted by MickintheHam
But as far as anecdotal goes, as a FL resident, I am not seeing this "epicenter". I have seen several reports where people who were not even tested got positive results, and I have seen labs with 100% positive results being reported, and seen deaths attributed to covid where the individual died of something unrelated but tested covid positive so it was reported as such. Personally I know of 2 people (man and his wife) who tested positive, treated at home and now better. I've yet to see trailers full of corpses like was seen in NYC.
With the many unknowns due to the new nature of this virus we simply do not know enough to truly use science as THE ONLY guide. As I explained to someone yesterday, Science is much about theory and that means they provide their best available opinion at that time based on what they knew. HEnce th back and forth on masks, drugs, ventilators, etc. But, at this stage of a virus, Science does not know a lot. So it will change as they get more theories and more information..and that erodes trust in science and experts. For them as scientists it is totally natural to change directions and opinions based on new info from an academic perspective. But for people losing jobs, houses, businesses it is much more than academic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Doc
What do we know for sure...
right now, we have a .00046 mortality rate on total population at the highest (we know some deaths were not covid caused but counted). We know that if you age adjust that morality rate is much lower if you are under age 70. MUCH LOWER. Even if we annualize that rate it is only .00092.
So, should the economy have been shuttered with a 34% drop in GDP for a .00046 mortality rate? Should our governemnt have went another $10 Trillion in debt for a .004 mortality rate? That is the questions we as US Citizens should be asking. And more importantly, should we continue the actions we have for a .00046 Mortality rate?
Agree. My point is that in this case the science can say whatever you want. Even things like mortality rate can be skewed. That is done by more testing means a higher number of cases which increased the denominator and lowering the mortality rate, but increasing the infection rate. What does it mean? It means nothing if the testing is not random but rather skewed to only include those likely to be positive.Quote:
Originally Posted by VirginiaCat
Likewise, the economic shutdown was sold as "flattening the curve". That was achieved, but then the goal posts moved. Its no longer flattening the curve.
What is known is how viruses are transmitted. This one is airborne and they follow a pattern. Masks help, hygene helps, air turnover helps, UV light helps, isolation helps, etc but at what cost? Where is risk vs reward come into play? When is the prevention worse than the cure?
I could care less about the political part of covid 19.
But, I cant discount what Pedro and others trained in such say however. Nor what I hear from the most trusted, experienced, educated, and lauded minds on the subject.
Nor Darrell's daughters first hand knowledge of the situation as well as career nurses in my own family. And the overwhelming majority of real world physicians and health care workers...not to mention a near worldwide consensus on the matter
If Trump himself came up with a cure and a vaccine in his bathtub I'd be celebrating like never before. But I think we will eventually see that in reality, the worst politicizing of the situation seems to coming from the right more so than the left.
we all have our opinion on who is politicizing what. Needless to say, we disagree.
You know, I am a trained Accountant. I am pretty darned conservative when it comes to fiscal advice to folks. I just struggle with fiscal risk (did not enter a casino until I was 38 and won over $300 on 4th pull on a $1 slot machine, and I am still up over $200 in my life bets!). That is how I am trained. how my mind works.Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
I think the medical and scientific community is giving us their best and most conservative advice because they believe that is how they can keep most of us safe from this virus. I know my nurses and physicians believe that.
But that does not mean that is the best course for this country. Suicides are way up. As or drug overdoses (Good friend lost his 25 year old son last Thursday to a heroin OD). People are out of work. Small business owners are losing their life savings and live investment in business. We have built a debt our children will never pay off. Likely their children neither.
And I still only know 1 person personally who has had this virus. I have friends in FL that swear they still do nto know one single person positive, let alone in the hospital or dead. We are into week 8 of Florida outbreak and only at 7200 deaths (attributed, not not necessarily causation) compared to 33000 in New York but the Gov of FL is being lambasted for how he handled the virus and New York is being lauded for the success. That is hyprocrisy at its finest!
Yes this is now political..but the tides are turning. People are waking up and realizing this is just not a fatally dangerous virus to most of Americans. It is to some...and that is where our efforts and spending need to go. The lifestyles of the few should be hindered, not the many.
I'm with you. We went out to dinner last Friday and my wife came home crying because of the number of small family owned restaurants that are out of business. These are people losing their life savings and years of hard work because the government can and will put them out of business! Both my sister in law and brother in law have potentially lost their lives to COVID, but not because of COVID itself but rather because they were denied the very most basic in health care.... and actual physical exam where their cancers likely would have been detected (Brother in law died, sister in law in the midst of chemo). I know exactly TWO people who have had it, both recovered without hospitalization. Meanwhile we talk about spending another trillion or three on give out for people not working due to GOVERNMENTAL RESTRICTIONS. Its not me who will be fitting that bill, but my kids and grandkids and great grandkids. And we have congress acting like a bunch of children playing games because doing what is right might help the other side to win an election. It is disgusting but not surprising. Using it to determine how to best fix an election? How to get states who are fiscal train wrecks to be solvent again? Yeah, that's not political at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by VirginiaCat
People are starting to see what this is really about. Here, more people are seeing this ploy because it's being reported that FL is in such dire straits but none of us here are actually seeing it. Is that anecdotal? Sure but its also common sense.
I guess the question is, how much do we each fear getting the virus. I do understand some do not fear it, and personally, leave my fate in God's hands but wont tempt Him to do what I can do for myself.
But most people who are most susceptible to the thing are isolated along with a fairly huge percentage less at risk. That's what has kept the numbers somewhat in check.
Along with keeping other more common contagions in check.
As for not knowing anyone who has it. I can nearly say the same, but I also know that I am lucky that I live in an area much less effected by the thing. And that most, even those with similar doubts as my friends here, have done a fine job following the CDC guidelines in spite of what they may share on FB or in conversation on the subject.
But I'll be the first to admit, I am at the mercy of those I trust in the respective professions fighting this virus. As I believe we all inevitably are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
I don't...any more than i fear dying from a heart attack (6'6" and 280 not best ratio for a 55 year old).
Will I wear a mask when in public places...yes, except at a restaurant when eating or drinking.
Will I wash my hands. Yep.
But I will go out to eat. I will take vaccations. I will live my life. And I want my friends that own businesses to be able to make the same decisions and make a living.
BUT, and let me be clear. We need to pay nursing homes, assisted living, and congregate care facilities more. period. And seniors at home need to be attended to and have supplies delivered. We need to focus and spend on those areas where individuals are truly at risk. I do not think go cheap..but if we had done that it would not have a $10T price tag and a 34% reduction in GDP.
FWIW, going "full Sweden" probably wouldn't have helped the economy much:
Attachment 9540
https://twitter.com/jmhorp/status/1290983850626121729
One difference that isnt mentioned is the fact that the US pumped $2 trillion in the economy to mitigate the shutdown effect on GDP.Quote:
Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
Short-Run Economic Effects of the CARES Act
"Summary: We estimate that the $2.3 trillion CARES Act will dampen the fall in GDP in the second quarter of this year (2020 Q2) from an annualized rate of 37 percent to 30 percent, and will produce around 1.5 million additional jobs by the third quarter (2020 Q3). "
Weren't the democrats pining that Covid response was a STATE issue when Trump wanted to handle it? And didnt democrats slam conservatives who wanted Trump to take the reigns because conservatices advocate for less federal involvement?
What say you about Biden federally mandated mask policy?
And if you hypocritically support it, what happened to following the science?
Dr. Siegel tells Tucker Carlson there is 'no science' behind Biden's mask mandate
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bid...siegel-saphier
In a store/building people need to mask up, and many aren't (or as BEvans pointed out elswhere doing it so wrong it doesn't work), but I also see people wearing a mask out walking their dog alone. Really?
In theory Trump's approach of it being a state level action makes the most sense, as Montana isn't New York, and New York city isn't upstate rural New York.
Unfortunately the mixed message plus the other social factors have mad the whole thing a mess, but it was going to be a mess b/c socially and ideologically this is a poor fit for the American model. It just is, and that's OK with me b/c the alternative, the Chinese model, isn't very good other than in a pandemic.
Fauci about to be less liked in some quarters, more in others where he hasn't been as popular, lol:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fau...erson-november
Yep...those who anointed him as a codvid svengali will quickly label him a Trump lackey.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
First proven reinfection, 142 days after first infection:
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/...90418168860674
However, that person was asymptomatic after reinfection. Unknown whether that means all reinfections will be asymptomatic or if this is just one of many possible outcomes. Also unknown if this person is contagious after reinfection or would suffer any chronic problems after reinfection.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
No shock. I am sure you have heard of people getting the chicken pox more than once. Occasionally disease does not stimulate long term immunity. Of course same goes for vaccination. However almost always the second bout is far less severe (or infection after a vax)
Big-sky’s post about travelling to the SECT
Yeah, it’s a disaster. Much worse than I ever thought on mental health and the economy. Small businesses are clobbered. Society is changing and some of all of it looks permanent.
As Far as politics goes, rightly or wrongly, I think rightly, this lands on Trump and Republicans.