The one is Ft Myers is about 30 miles north of me. Was listed as as a
Suspected case yesterday. Apparently this person traveled internationally recently.
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The one is Ft Myers is about 30 miles north of me. Was listed as as a
Suspected case yesterday. Apparently this person traveled internationally recently.
I've started working on washing my hands diligently and keeping them off my face. I never realized how much I do that.
At my church we do a Saturday breakfast where we cook eggs/sausage/biscuits/gravy and a bunch of us old guys watch a bible study video and talk about it. Something like that makes you realize how many different ways we could transmit something.
I’m sad this made me laugh. HahaQuote:
Originally Posted by Doc
Btw, I know others here know Doc, but if you haven’t met him he has one of the driest, most sarcastic senses of humor you will ever meet.
Not sure how that comes across if you don’t know him but boy is it funny to me.
If anyone wonders how people with different political viewpoints can get along: UK and laughter (and alcohol). That will do it.
Alcohol is the keyQuote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
And respect for each other
Wow, I was reading a thread on coronovirus and a basketball game broke out. ;)
I read a story about kids in China being assigned school at home through an app. They all got together and downvoted the app on the App Store to get it taken down. No more school at home!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeZnpGoCQoU
If this is true, it's awesome. Even if it's not true, it's still pretty awesome.
Went to dinner this evening with daughter and SIL. As my SIL was walking the dog before leaving for dinner his neighbor across the street called to him. His daughter was self quarantined in their house. She just was sent home from her exchange studies in Italy. She was among several students at Berry College who had their study program cancelled.
We have our 1st case here in Jefferson County. My son is kind of a germaphobe anyway, but he's scheduled to fly to Japan on the 25th and doesn't want to get sick before he goes, so he's a little freaked out.
First Kentucky coronavirus patient was in serious condition but is improving--4 total cases in Kentucky as of now:
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...ky/4939264002/
I just want to summarize some of the quotes from President Trump during this crisis and then ask a legit question about it:
“the 15 (cases of Coronavirus), within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
When asked about school's having preparedness plans just in case they need to shut down:
“I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up,” he said. “We’re going very substantially down, not up.”
"Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) &
@CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus (his misspelling not mine) look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!"
"The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!"
“This came unexpectedly, it came out of China, we closed it down, we stopped it, it was a very early shut down,” he [Trump] told reporters this morning. Trump’s chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, declared on CNBC, “I would still argue to you that this thing is contained.”
"I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship" -- Trump explains that he doesn't want to let people off the Grand Princess cruise ship because he doesn't want the number of coronavirus cases in the country to go up.
"The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, “The risk is low to the average American.”
"So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"
I have stated on here several times that I think these quotes do a disservice to our country. They have not "stopped a panic" but instead done the opposite. As people have realized how serious this is, they see their President lying, or at the very least politically spinning this issue.
So my question is not one of leadership (as I have made my viewpoint clear) but is instead a political one: Is what Trump is doing politically wise?
He clearly thinks so. There is no way you can read those statements and not think they are not politically motivated. As Chuck said in this thread, everything politicians say is political.
But I just think this is a political disaster for him. He and Fox News can say all day long that its "Fake News" and that CNN, etc is spreading fear. But the fact is that a tiny % of Americans watch those news outlets. Or read the newspaper, etc.
Americans are not stupid. They can see what he is doing and its transparently obvious. He doesn't seem like a leader right now. He seems like someone who is desperately trying to hold on to his job.
How can you keep talking about how many people the flu kills every year and downplaying this. We aren't stupid. THIS IS NEW. Its more contagious and is far more deadly. And we have no vaccine or flu shot for it yet. That is the concern.
And you can't blame the fake news for the story and then see Northern Italy on Lockdown. Japan canceling school. China on lockdown. Etc etc.
Are they all doing that to hurt Trump also? Is this a massive global conspiracy to get him out of office? I think not. And no sane person thinks that either.
This is simply a political disaster for him.
I know he doesn't listen to many around him, but surely one of his strategists told him, "Mr. President, this is going to spread like crazy and get really bad. So let's not be on the record saying "We have stopped it. It will disappear. The flu is worse, etc. Let's just lead and inform people and do everything we can do."
At what point do sporting events get shut down. Schools get shut down. Trains and air get shut down. Cruises get shut down. People home from work, etc. And he's still on twitter blaming the fake news for it all. Politically speaking, this is just a disaster.
And today of course, once again the stock market is plunging. Not just here, globally.
This isn't a conspiracy to get rid of Trump. Its a pandemic that he needs to lead our country through. And Imo, if he is not re-elected, he will have no one to blame but himself.
9/11 and W's response to it got him re-elected in 2004 (then WMD's and Iraq lost Republicans the next election).
Trump's reaction and response to this has been so poor, it may very well cost him an election I think he has been the favorite for. This isn't going away in weeks. The effects of it will go on for months and well into voting season.
P.S. This last tweet was from today:
"So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"
I did think about it. That means this has a 4% death rate in America so far.
The CDC believes 60 million people in the United States contracted the Swine Flu from April 2009-April 2010.
4% of 60 million would be 2.4 million deaths.
A 3.4 to 4% mortality rate is frightening.
That is on known cases. I’d suspect other folks have it not knowing it’s Covid-19 and it’s like a pretty harsh cold to relatively healthy people. The best piece of advice I heard on this was Dr Drew, wash your hands, get your flu shot so as not to stop up the system and for the media to just plain shut up and stop creating a crisis where it currently doesn’t exist.Quote:
Originally Posted by UKHistory
puma, every person I talk to agrees with Trump. Every one. They all think this is overblown, that the media are stoking it harder than necessary, etc.
Yes we're all concerned, we know it won't be good, but we all think life goes on.
He's not calling the virus "fake news", but the overreaction that makes it sound like the zombies are coming, and out here in the middle of the country everyone agrees with him. Even those who hate him are taking the same basic position, even if they'd never directly admit they agree with Trump (and his wording makes it hard to agree, I get that).
Like I said, you live in a place that ranges from being convinced Trump is ending democracy to just hating him. Here were he won by 30 points you'll get a very different spin on his handling of things.
And yes, I've said all along this is his test. But you know what? It won't be measured by his words. If words had anything to do with being elected then Biden would be sitting at home, and so would Trump.
It will be measured by how many people get sick and/or die and how people feel it was handled in the actual results, and how the economy holds up to it.
What he tweets is irrelevant. As it apparently is for most any politician. People will remember their personal experiences with it and vote based on those.
Yes, Trump could be inspirational at this point. I wish he would be, doing FDR's fireside chats or Reagan's addresses from the Oval Office or Churchill vowing calm and resolve, but that won't happen with Trump, so we might as well get on with it.
But the truth is he could be the most inspirational guy ever and it will still be decided on how bad the virus gets and how bad the economy gets and whether he's seen as doing everything he can or seen as not doing enough.
And we won't know that till late summer really. People who swing these races also tend to have short memories.
First, that's not the death rate as we don't know how many real cases we're dealing with, and the flu estimates we get every year are gross guesses b/c the vast majority of people are never treated.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
There are no doubt people who have this right now who are either asymptomatic or think they have a cold. The vast majority will not seek treatment of any kind.
Here are latest CDC numbers on this flu season (estimates obviously):
Deaths: 20,000-52,000 (notice the MASSIVE range and error in that number anyone?)
Hospitalized: 350K-620K (death rate of this number low/low and high/high is 5.7% and 8.4%)
Treated: 16-23million (death rate 0.125% and 0.23% )
A much more accurate number, and to keep apples to apples here, is to compare the number of people hospitalized for flu against deaths or at least those treated against deaths.
I'd argue maybe a number in between there somewhere as most of those showing up are sick enough to seek treatment and the many hospitalized. Looking at it that way the 4% number may in fact be right in line with what we're seeing from the regular flu. At least as of right now it's not clear that it's vastly worse.
Now the truth is we don't know for sure, but I see Trump saying the same thing every Governor is saying, that we should be calm and that we'll get through this.
Now he doesn't say it as well as FDR or Reagan or Churchill but in his own way he's saying the same thing, that a lot of the harm being done is media panic versus just taking precautions and going on with life.
Oh I understand the death rate is likely closer to 2-3%. But again, none of ya know yet.
My point was that Trump is tweeting those exact numbers (which show a 4% death rate) somehow thinking they will make people feel better. They won’t.
Exactly THIS. This why what Trump is saying and tweeting is so dangerous.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
For political reasons (which he 100% admitted) he is downplaying this. And because he is downplaying it, half of America (the ones that voted for him and watch Fox News) is downplaying it. They “all think this is overblown”.
Somehow every single person I know that is a Republican thinks this is overblown. Every one.
Of course they do. Duh.
And that is the greatest danger. That half of America will not take this as seriously as they should and that ignorance will cause this to spread and kill thousands that might have otherwise been spared.
This is serious. This isn’t overblown. Drastic measures need to be put in place so that it doesn’t kill thousands and thousands of people.
But Trump continues to downplay it (as I’ve quoted above) and therefore people that listen to him are downplaying it.
Do you know who isn’t downplaying it and has no interest in Trumps re-election bid? Italy.
And do you know why it has spread so quickly there? Because two weeks ago their President was downplaying it.
11 days ago Italy had 600 cases*. 11. Days.
Today they have over 10,000. Now half the country is on lockdown and the other half is on restriction.
They don’t think it’s overblown anymore.
*Today, we have roughly 600 confirmed cases in the U.S.
At what point is this not overblown? 5,000 people? 10,000? More?
Update: all of Italy is now on lockdown. Literally 2 min after I posted that.
One more post on this tonight: I hope some of you are watching Tucker Carlson tonight. He started his show by talking about what a mistake it is to downplay this thing. And what a mistake this administration made by "downplaying it for weeks".
This is not the flu. This is deadly serious. And its going to get worse. And it will effect your life.
"We can not stop this epidemic. We can only limit its consequences. But it will likely effect us for years."
Its been a while since I've agreed with Tucker Carlson. But he most definitely is not part of your group who thinks "this is overblown". He in fact thinks its the opposite.
"There will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth dismay among nations, in perplexity at the roaring of the sea and the waves, men fainting from fear and the expectation of the things which are coming upon the world; for the powers of the heavens will be shaken. "Then they will see THE SON OF MAN COMING IN A CLOUD with power and great glory.
"But when these things begin to take place, straighten up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near." Then He told them a parable:
"Behold the fig tree and all the trees; as soon as they put forth leaves, you see it and know for yourselves that summer is now near. "So you also, when you see these things happening, recognize that the kingdom of God is near. "Truly I say to you, this generation will not pass away until all things take place.
You really need to see the difference between "serious" and "overblown" and how the two can coexist. They are not mutually exclusive.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
I'm sorry that I a) think this is a very serious matter, and b) that the media are turning it from serious to the zombie apocalypse.
We simply disagree, but it has nothing to do with Trump. I'm not so congenitally stupid that he is leading me to this view.
It will be bad. I have no doubt. People will die. If we are vigilant we can keep that number down b/c clearly China has yet to be wiped from the Earth despite far more people in far tighter areas and widespread infection.
that does not mean we should act like this is the end of the world and start hoarding toilet paper and bottled water (your own point). THAT is the overblown part that Trump and "every Republican" sees as just absurd.
But in this part of the country we all see it that way, even Democrats.
And that's the way to see it. Be thoughtful, take precautions, but live your life. Welcome to 9/11, welcome to the Blitz, this is how advanced nations and people's handle crisis.
It can be deadly serious and also overblown, and fwiw I do think Trump has handled this wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
The way to handle it is to say "we will do our best to contain it, but this is a fight against Mother Nature and we will eventually see this virus spread and it will impact our lives." basically the Churchill approach to soldier on and call on Americans to weather the storm.
I suggested that a while ago on here.
That's the right approach, but Trump won't do that and honestly I doubt any President would. It takes too much guts to play it with British stoicism.
All the governors are doing the same thing, saying it's serious but not to panic, risk is low, etc. Trump just does it with his usual absurd hyperbole.
But if that mattered in the end the man wouldn't be President b/c that's what he has done from the start. Even his supporters see it, mostly don't care for it, and move on. He's not going to stop.
But over here where we all see this as "overblown" I also know everyone is being smart about it, washing hands, limiting contact, etc.
We can follow the smart protocols without losing our minds, and know it's coming without the media onslaught as if we should shut down the country for a year and see if it helps.
to borrow once again from our English friends:
Keep Calm and Carry On.
That should be the message. Trump won't do it, but in the end whether he does or doesn't won't make much difference. It may come back to bite him personally, but IMO there's not much way for a POTUS to get on the other side of the table from this thing very easy.
And, bluntly, Trump wouldn't be able to do it regardless of what he does b/c the media wouldn't rally around him in support even if he had the soul of Churchill come down and run the government.
BTW, one thing Trump should do is probably rush the testing regimen for the vaccine. that's very risky, but worth the risk in this case IMO. Instead of end of year if they could have it out mid-Summer it may make a world of difference.
Also, in the end it's results that will matter, like not having sufficient testing kits. Pedro has alluded to a hold up letting private companies make them, but I can't imagine that's coming from Trump himself b/c that only hurts him. Coming from the CDC wouldn't surprise me a bit, but surely any fool can see that testing is the key to containing this thing, at least slowing it down.
Things like that scare me to death, and will be the reason Trump wins or loses, but not so much his words.
There is a direct correlation to his words and his actions. And definitely the actions of those around him. He isn’t taking this nearly as serious as he should. His words and actions say that. Unfortunately, a lot of people will follow suit.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
Harvard going to all online after its spring break, no campus classes, students encouraged not to return to campus:
https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1237354499439767554
Here's an article advocating to cancel any large gatherings immediately.
The Atlantic: Cancel Everything
Is it an overreaction? Given what I've read on Twitter from some of the Italian doctors who are currently dealing with outbreaks, no.
Does that include having crowds at the SEC tournament, NCAA tournament? Yes. Just not worth it at this time IMO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/many...-cdc-says.html
CDC: Are you over 60? Don't fly. Stock up on your prescriptions and stay away from, well, just about everyone.
I agree. That is why this is so frustrating to watch so many downplay the whole thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by JPScott
It is either going to blow up on us in the next 2 weeks as it did in Italy because we wait until after its too late to do anything. Or we are going to take some extreme measures to stop its spread and then afterwards Fox News can say, "See, hardly anyone died. It was all much ado about nothing".
I will take the latter.
The flu in the US averages to a 0.1% death rate. If Covid-19 is even 1.0% it is a magnitude that far surpasses the average flu--which is very dangerous.
It is a big deal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof
I will reiterate it was definitely not the CDC or FDA doing this, it came from higher up. No idea HOW high but it was above the CDC, I am not comfortable saying anymore than that. The only reason I can think of for doing this is they wanted to keep the numbers low in hopes that it would fizzle out. An idea which dovetails with what Trump has been saying about it being "no big deal".Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenBBN
After this became a big story, the FDA has since allowed other sources for Coronavirus testing. I have no idea if the administration caved to the pressure or if someone else made a different decision but this change is very good. I know both Quest and LabCorp are now in the process of developing/deploying their own test kits. Once they get online, then we should have much more realistic numbers because these companies have the capacity to perform hundreds of millions of tests a month if the reagents and need are there.
I have limited interaction with the CDC but in my limited interaction they have been VERY intelligent and try to be proactive. That being said, they are notably underfunded and as a result overworked. I remember hearing issues about sample storage at some CDC labs a while back. That kinda of failure is symptomatic of either 1)a lax safety culture or 2) people so overworked and exhausted that they are making mistakes. Considering the few people I know at the CDC are hardcore about safety (any safety failure could mean their death) and are notably overworked, then I would view it as the latter.
As for the FDA, since I work in an FDA regulated industry, I have loads of experience with them. I truly have nothing but the utmost respect for the FDA; every single company in the industry fears them and that's how it should be. They are frustrating at times and scary at others, but much like OSHA almost every rule they make was first "written in blood". They are the sole reason that we did not experience the tragedy of thalidomide babies that Europe experienced. Their model of evidence-driven risk-based decision making was a breakthrough in medical/pharmaceutical safety and efficacy; this is a model the rest of the world has followed. Personal anecdote: I had the fun of being in front of an auditor for multiple days at a surprise audit a few months ago and I don't think I have ever been more stressed in my life. They are experts at picking at little threads and seeing what they can unravel; it is truly remarkable how good they are at it. I had to defend almost every single decision I made in my investigations. He questioned not only my scientific decisions but my assignments of risk, the data I used to make my decisions, the systematic framework through which the decisions were approved, etc. This was all to ensure that we had the systems and people in place to properly ensure patient safety. Say what you will about the government but the FDA is a remarkable department and one that we are VERY lucky to have. If anything, I would like to see them take a MORE aggressive regulatory role. Soapbox: Now if they would just add supplements to their domain so that they can close that loophole.
Edit:
Just a quick update for those that don't think this is serious. These are the stats from 07MAR2020 for the nursing home which is the epicenter of the outbreak up here in Kirkland:
On 2/19 the center had 120 patients, they now have 63. Since 2/19, 26 have died (far above the normal rate for the facility of 3-7/month). Of the deaths, 13 of the 15 who died in hospitals tested positive for COVID-19. They do not have COVID-19 status information on the 11 who died at the nursing home. 6 of the remaining 63 residents and 70 staff were showing symptoms of COVID-19. They received some test kits for testing patients. As per the update yesterday (09MAR2020) the current testing results are:
- 31 positive
- 1 negative
- 3 indeterminate
- 20 tests still pending
Keep in mind, these results are for the patients only (because they were the most at risk) and do not include the previous confirmed cases/deaths at local hospitals. It also doesn't include the staff, which means the number will rise dramatically when they test the staff (since 70 staff were showing symptoms).
EDIT2: Just saw that they have added three more COVID-19 deaths related to the facility and the facility has less the 60 patients at this point.
On a small scale, our HOA meeting for tonight is cancelled.
On a much larger scale, the Army is halting PCS to/from Korea and Italy until 6 May or further notice:
https://www.military.com/daily-news/...rus-fears.html
This will have a cascade effect for a lot of people and businesses.
Thank you for sharing all of that. And honestly, none of us have to play inspector gadget to know there is a link to what was said publicly and what was happening in action.Quote:
Originally Posted by PedroDaGr8
The GOOD NEWS, as you said, is that the admin was getting extreme pressure on the testing kits and according to the press conference yesterday those will be being produced quickly.
Unfortunately, we are way behind other countries in testing. And what is going to happen with almost certainty is that our case rate is going to go up exponentially when people are actually being tested.
I bolded the above statement in your quote and just want it to soak in how unbelievable this fact is. Many in this nursing home have died. Most have the virus. And 65 staff members who work there have the symptoms. But they don't know if they have it because they haven't been able to test them yet.
Here is an article on that: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN20X01R
I found this article fascinating. Last year, politico (as well as John Hopkins University) did fictional exercises of how vulnerable we are to a pandemic exactly like the one we are having.
They predicted it would likely be a coronavirus. And they talked about the keys to shutting it down early, etc. This is a very non-political article (as they basically say lawmakers on both sides have never taken this as serious as they should). But its informative and I thought well done.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...-advice-121172
Syracuse announces that following spring break, they will be going to 100% on-line courses for the remainder of the year.
Same with Harvard. UF already doing it. Many more will follow.Quote:
Originally Posted by UKHistory
Some humor:
Attachment 9225
BEvans we needed that. well played.