Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

The FDA needs to be thinking 2 weeks, not 2 months.

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Actually, I just found out the FDA did better than that. The FDA is not requiring EUA for blood tests provided the manufacturer notifies the FDA and includes the following warnings on the package:

• This test has not been reviewed by the FDA.
• Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in those who have been in contact with the virus. Follow-up testing with a molecular diagnostic should be considered to rule out infection in these individuals.
• Results from antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection or to inform infection status.
• Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.

EUA allows them to remove a number of these warnings, making the test far more valuable.

Better than nothing. Hopefully they can still get the EUA out very quickly. I understand the need for any test to be accurate, but at this point maybe it's better than waiting with no answers at all.

The Germans allowed those home tests from STD type companies that the FDA stopped. Maybe they've changed on that I don't know. But the Germans have had better luck with testing that may not be 100% versus no testing at all.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

The FDA needs to be thinking 2 weeks, not 2 months.

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The FDA needs to be thinking PERIOD

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Better than nothing. Hopefully they can still get the EUA out very quickly. I understand the need for any test to be accurate, but at this point maybe it's better than waiting with no answers at all.

The Germans allowed those home tests from STD type companies that the FDA stopped. Maybe they've changed on that I don't know. But the Germans have had better luck with testing that may not be 100% versus no testing at all.

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The FDA is allowing companies to sell the blood-based antibody tests outright, not sure how much LESS hands off you can get.

I disagree about any testing being better than none. I fully agree that perfect is the enemy of good but a bad tests (like the ones from China) are far worse than no test at all.

Also, to my knowledge Germany did not allow any home tests yet, they have only allowed laboratory-developed tests so far. They are currently evaluating at-home antibody tests to determine if they are effective. The only reason they allowed laboratory-developed tests was because the EMA did not have the authority to regulate them unlike commercially developed tests. This was being exploited as a massive loophole by some companies/labs in Europe and a bill to bring them under EMA authority (just like the FDA) had already approved by the European Parliament. This bill was slated to go into effect in a year or so, it will be interesting to hear if they retract or modify this bill. Anyways, since the labs could standardize around the WHO protocol without EMA approval, the private companies just needed to produce the materials the labs needed. So when you hear that German companies were producing tests, this actually isn't exactly true. They were producing reagents for the various laboratory approved tests based upon the WHO protocol. Sampling protocols, result verification protocols, equipment validation, personnel validation, etc. were all left up to the laboratories to develop/validate independently.

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Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

The FDA needs to be thinking PERIOD

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The FDA actually does a damn good job overall. That being said, they are an executive-branch department so if someone from the executive branch steps in (like they did with the CDC) then there isn't much they can do

10 current cases. One hospitalized. Still no deaths thankfully. 140 Recovered. Gallatin County has the most cases in Montana. The deaths in Montana are primarily the one senior care facility in tiny Toole County.

Today, after reading about the sneaky covid pneumonia and "low oxygen levels" of people who have to be hospitalized and likely die I ordered one of those oxygen meters. $45 or so. Because I'm still certain I will get it. But I'm worried about the people who won't ... have a job or a home or a dollar in the bank.

The FDA does a great job, but they are structured for long term safety, not a war time crisis. That's not their fault, I don't blame them, but the way they are organized and their entire set of goals is like a peace time army supply department.

In a peacetime scenario that extra time and overhead isn't a crisis, it's just sound safety procedures. In a wartime footing some of that safety has to be set aside for expediency. You're losing more people than you're saving by being risk averse.

Now's the time for some of those things where if in 1 month you're 95% sure but it's 6 months to get that other 5% you just may have to let it go. And I can't say that's the decision matrix they face at all, but I am sure they weren't seeing this crisis as a crisis of this proportion in January. Now they do so hopefully it will be OK.

The FDA allowing antibody tests to go out as they did (removing the regulations) caused a huge problem as Pedro alluded to. There are a lot of really bad tests out there and its hard for the consumer to know which is which.

al.com is reporting that commercial labs are not reporting negative test results consistently. Only reporting positive results in many cases. As stated before I find all the statistics on the pandemic to be questionable. Hard to criticize the Chinese when ours are screwed up. It is believed the 7+% infection rate in Alabama is closer to 3%.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/alab...n-mystery.html

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Hard to criticize the Chinese when ours are screwed up.

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It is believed that the Chinese intentionally misreported the numbers where I believe the numbers here are out of whack because no one told the staff to track the negative numbers out of sheer stupidity.

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Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

It is believed that the Chinese intentionally misreported the numbers where I believe the numbers here are out of whack because no one told the staff to track the negative numbers out of sheer stupidity.

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This. The Chinese are intentionally destroying data and editing the math, what we're seeing in the US is just normal incompetence and not thinking.

Oh, and economic greed. Hospitals get more money for treating Covid, so anyone who has it who dies is a covid death even if something else killed them. Not sure how many that is, and neither is anyone else.

2 samples of people who died in early February (2/6 and 2/17) were later submitted to the CDC by the Santa Clara County medical examiner. The samples were positive for Covid. This is much earlier than what was believed to be the 1st Covid death (2/29, in Washington).

Considering it would take about 3-4 weeks on average for a person to die from the initial infection, it indicates it was in the country a lot earlier than originally believed--maybe as early as late December/early January.

https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1252820712877776901

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Originally Posted by MickintheHam

al.com is reporting that commercial labs are not reporting negative test results consistently. Only reporting positive results in many cases. As stated before I find all the statistics on the pandemic to be questionable. Hard to criticize the Chinese when ours are screwed up. It is believed the 7+% infection rate in Alabama is closer to 3%.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/alab...n-mystery.html

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This is a problem with Alabama, Ohio, and a few other states. For example, Washington state mandated reporting of all results from the get go and the labs have followed it fully. The requirement of reporting negative results actually slowed Washington's database to a crawl because it wasn't designed to handle the huge amount of data which came in. This meant that for about a week, the data was not being updated on time but they were very transparent about this.

While the number may or may not be lower, there is still very much a selection bias going on in most states. Testing is only occurring for the "most likely infected" which is automatically weeds out a portion of the population. This is why most people believe the death rate for this infection will go down below 1% but the contagiousness rate will go up dramatically.

It is pretty damn easy to criticize the Chinese when they actively obstructed and lied. There is a huge difference between the "fog of war" and malevolent obfuscation. What's going on in the USA currently is mostly "fog of war", as more adequate and accurate testing comes online this fog will lift some.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Oh, and economic greed. Hospitals get more money for treating Covid, so anyone who has it who dies is a covid death even if something else killed them. Not sure how many that is, and neither is anyone else.

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This is how it has been with every single disease since time immortal. Like MOST viruses, SARS-CoV-2 seldom kills directly; instead, it weakens the body to the point that things like pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, etc. kill the person. For example, if I have heart disease or severe COPD and would have died within the next year or two and I catch coronavirus and die a week or so later, then this is both a coronavirus death and a heart disease or COPD death. Much like if you want to be pedantic, not a single person has ever died from HIV; instead they have all died from opportunistic infections, cancer, etc.

I have seen the stories and memes going around the news media parroting your comment and I can say they are not fact-based. Hospitals don't get money based on the assignment of death, they only get money for the treatments they provide (treating a diagnosed COVID-19 patient, placing a patient on a ventillator, etc.). They could say the patient died due to being pecked to death by a chicken and it would not change their payout one bit. If anything, the death rate is being understated because patients who die and have SARS-CoV-2 but weren't diagnosed with it are not included in the results. Just see the story below about samples which were missed. There will be some notable revisions upwards in these numbers in the future due to testing of pre and post mortem samples. These stories and memes are designed to sow distrust in the numbers for political purposes plain and simple.

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

2 samples of people who died in early February (2/6 and 2/17) were later submitted to the CDC by the Santa Clara County medical examiner. The samples were positive for Covid. This is much earlier than what was believed to be the 1st Covid death (2/29, in Washington).

Considering it would take about 3-4 weeks on average for a person to die from the initial infection, it indicates it was in the country a lot earlier than originally believed--maybe as early as late December/early January.

https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1252820712877776901

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This is VERY big news and very interesting! I will be following this story to see what more it tells us.

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They could say the patient died due to being pecked to death by a chicken and it would not change their payout one bit.

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It would however be the lead story on the nightly news.

Pedro, I have no doubt that having Covid would contribute to a death, and I'm not saying it shouldn't be the cause of death or at least related (maybe they should have two categories), just that the whole thing is fuzzy. And no doubt there are covid related deaths that are not counted as they weren't tested.

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

2 samples of people who died in early February (2/6 and 2/17) were later submitted to the CDC by the Santa Clara County medical examiner. The samples were positive for Covid. This is much earlier than what was believed to be the 1st Covid death (2/29, in Washington).

Considering it would take about 3-4 weeks on average for a person to die from the initial infection, it indicates it was in the country a lot earlier than originally believed--maybe as early as late December/early January.

https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1252820712877776901

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Doesn't surprise me. Based on the projections of when China really knew and how it was spreading I'm betting it was here and elsewhere far sooner than we thought, making almost any effort to keep it out of the US useless.

The thing is the Chinese knew this was happening and did nothing to stop international travel even weeks after they clearly knew what was happeneing.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Doesn't surprise me. Based on the projections of when China really knew and how it was spreading I'm betting it was here and elsewhere far sooner than we thought, making almost any effort to keep it out of the US useless.

The thing is the Chinese knew this was happening and did nothing to stop international travel even weeks after they clearly knew what was happeneing.

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I've posted this before...and its still wishful thinking...

But, my mom really believes she had it in early January. Unfortunately, they never tested her for the flu so she doesn't have that to help figure it out. She drives Uber for extra money btw. And she remembers driving a few people from "over there" (her words) from the airport.
But, everything she says sounds so similar. She's "never been that sick in her life". She couldn't leave the house for 3 weeks (which is completely unlike her). She coughed so hard for so many weeks that her chest was bruised. She developed pneumonia. She went to the emergency room because she couldn't breathe. They gave her steroids 3 different times to kill it and none of them did. And they kept saying, "This is impossible. These steroids always work on the flu."
To the point the Dr. wrote on her paperwork, "Pneumonia Unresolved and Complicated".
And even when she kicked it, she was still so fatigued and tired she couldn't leave the house for another week.

Then, it ran through my entire family. Which again, just never happens. No one else got THAT sick, but almost everyone got it right after her. And my wife coughed so much and so hard that she lost her voice for days and had to go to the Dr as well. They DID test her for the flu and it was negative. For her, it was the end of January. And it was bad enough that they ran her through the protocols of Coronavirus that they were doing back then..."Have you traveled to China, etc".

Anyways, obviously no way to know. But for my mom's sake, I sure am hoping its what she had.

When the antibody test becomes more widely available I would think she and your whole family could use it to determine if you had it. At least I assume the antibodies would last a while, but I defer to our doctors and Pedro on that matter.

I think it's been here since December, probably mid-december b/c it got loose in Wuhan early December and there's so much travel to and from there that I'm betting at least 1-2 people from there brought it within a week or so of it getting loose in the streets of Wuhan. By January when we thought we were stopping it I bet there were already several people bringing it in and by that point we already had spread infections in the US.

I'm surprised how many people travel from here to there and back, but the number seems substantial, and I think this thing was already out of control in Wuhan by mid-december, maybe even a week earlier.

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Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

It would however be the lead story on the nightly news.

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Ive seen some bad roosters in my life.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

When the antibody test becomes more widely available I would think she and your whole family could use it to determine if you had it. At least I assume the antibodies would last a while, but I defer to our doctors and Pedro on that matter.

I think it's been here since December, probably mid-december b/c it got loose in Wuhan early December and there's so much travel to and from there that I'm betting at least 1-2 people from there brought it within a week or so of it getting loose in the streets of Wuhan. By January when we thought we were stopping it I bet there were already several people bringing it in and by that point we already had spread infections in the US.

I'm surprised how many people travel from here to there and back, but the number seems substantial, and I think this thing was already out of control in Wuhan by mid-december, maybe even a week earlier.

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For sure. I didn’t really have any symptoms so I’m less hopeful for me. But we have emailed several places to get her tested and no luck yet.

Pumacat sounds a lot like my mom and step dad.

In my home, my cat is sick a respiratory thing. My dog has been sick but better. My wife was sick in January and Feb. She has a history of respiratory issues. And I was sick for a little while.

I was really bad one day. It hit me like a ton of bricks. I was better in a few days but the sense of fatigue I had was strong.

Did we have COVID-19? Does my cat still? I don't know.

It is all a mystery.

Glad your mother is better. All very scary.

Hopefully we'll get a mass produced antibody test soon and find out that a TON of people have had it and are OK, b/c that's the closest thing to a vaccine right now.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Hopefully we'll get a mass produced antibody test soon and find out that a TON of people have had it and are OK, b/c that's the closest thing to a vaccine right now.

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100%. That would be the best news possible. And seriously lower the death rate.

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Originally Posted by UKHistory

Pumacat sounds a lot like my mom and step dad.

In my home, my cat is sick a respiratory thing. My dog has been sick but better. My wife was sick in January and Feb. She has a history of respiratory issues. And I was sick for a little while.

I was really bad one day. It hit me like a ton of bricks. I was better in a few days but the sense of fatigue I had was strong.

Did we have COVID-19? Does my cat still? I don't know.

It is all a mystery.

Glad your mother is better. All very scary.

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Indeed. Glad you are all healthy. I did read today two cats in NY had it. For real.

Well this should help us all sleep at night. The Chinese cut a $1b deal for masks with California and the governor won't even let his own party leaders in the legislature in on the contract details.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cal...eal-with-china

The chinese are also providing 100s of drones for LEOs throughout the country, and US intelligence has warned they could easily and probably are being used for intelligence gathering.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Well this should help us all sleep at night. The Chinese cut a $1b deal for masks with California and the governor won't even let his own party leaders in the legislature in on the contract details.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cal...eal-with-china

The chinese are also providing 100s of drones for LEOs throughout the country, and US intelligence has warned they could easily and probably are being used for intelligence gathering.

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Nation State?? I believe Trump needs to send troops to the Nevada California border and fortify the military bases all over Cali.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Well this should help us all sleep at night. The Chinese cut a $1b deal for masks with California and the governor won't even let his own party leaders in the legislature in on the contract details.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cal...eal-with-china

The chinese are also providing 100s of drones for LEOs throughout the country, and US intelligence has warned they could easily and probably are being used for intelligence gathering.

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The Chinese have promised that is not happening.

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The chinese are also providing 100s of drones for LEOs throughout the country, and US intelligence has warned they could easily and probably are being used for intelligence gathering.

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Target practice in the back yard. Must be why the Chas Daly are not available.

Sounds legit......lol

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Originally Posted by Doc

The Chinese have promised that is not happening.

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

Sounds legit......lol

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The did the "cross my heart, hope to die" thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRv6HrJSgxU

Out! Two more deaths statewide, and I'm concerned about the one person who continues to be hospitalized in Bozeman. Truth is the largest age group that got sick here is 20-29 and 145/150 of all ages are fully recovered. I'd guess once restaurants and bars get going we will again see a spike in 20-40 yr olds getting sick and then fully recovering. I probably won't go to bars and restaurants. Or concerts. or ball games. But I do want to go camping at state parks.