Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by kingcat

I found this a very enlightening USA Today article on herd immunity..

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/5156368002/

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Yes, herd immunity comes at a cost. Sweden is seeing a larger death toll. The Atlantic had a good article about "acclimatization" to Yellow Fever in New Orleans in the 1700s. You died or became immune. Now we don't know if having this bug grants immunity. Nor do we know without an antibody study how many people have had it and gotten over it. We do know that people like me die of it; heart disease, immunity challenged and taking a blood pressure drug. Hence "boomer remover" is a hashtag and the plague visits nursing homes and cleans house. This wasn't an issue in the 18th century when people didn't live that long. We don't "fully stop" the flu. We don't "fully stop" traffic accidents. We don't "fully stop" murder. Public policy balances efforts in flu mitigation with the surety that some tens of thousands die of flu every year. Public policy leaves highways open at night even though people get in accidents and die. Public policy doesn't stop and frisk despite the great results it brings. As harsh as it sounds, that does discount human life against other public goods. We will "go backward" and have outbreaks again. The outbreaks lines and deaths lines will look like an eight point saw. Outbreak, response, decline, and repeat.

And to Brian Stelter, who cried for our old life; I guarrantee you people on this board grieved the end of sports as we know it. I mentioned how silly I felt grieving the end of college hoops, but yep, I sure did. Doc talks about a burger and beer and ball game on a bar stool. We get it, Brian. But we cowboy up.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-tim...ration-is-now/

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Originally Posted by bigsky

https://www.aier.org/article/the-tim...ration-is-now/

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Is it fair to say that the frickin models are the major cause of the mess we find ourselves in?

well, “let’s stop for two weeks” might have been great, dan, and canceling sports. But to go from that to “ don’t open till nobody dies” was the big mistake.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

And it’s clearly political. Michigan. Minn. Virginia.
He didn’t tweet at California. Or Washington.
He tweeted in battleground states.

It’s appalling in my opinion.

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Urging civil disobedience of the America people in opposition to their state and local leaders is a dangerous approach by the president. Along the same lines but not amateurish and childish as Trump was when the state and cities tried to be sanctuary locations.

Heck Trump started griping about the second amendment when he was urging that Virginia liberate itself.

I get people being frustrated and scared. We all are. How do we reopen? I'd feel better about it with increased testing.

This tracking business seems a dangerous way for a democracy to operate.

To separate Trump's governing from his tweeting is not realistic. His behavior makes him unfit and unqualified to serve.

I want the country to open up as soon as we can while mitigating the risk. What does that look like? I don't know.

But having the President, any president behaving like a troll over a stateman is so counter productive. He make me physically ill.

I may or may not agree with Pence. However he at least communicates like an adult with cogent sentences, rational thought, etc.

Out of nowhere my wife and her family are now convinced that the flu is much worse than Covid19 and that this indeed a complete and worldwide hoax meant to set us up for "something else about to happen" as she put it.

That is as of today and I am afraid for all of my family. I had wondered why she had been refusing to wear a mask when shopping and was down playing any need for social distancing.

Evidently it is a booming Facebook trend currently and church related. They are all posting this info as proof/

https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net...b5&oe=5EC36677

I haven’t been able to see the 2018 sourced data yet, but the flu this season has taken 147K to date, COVID-19 is at almost 42K to date

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Originally Posted by kingcat

Out of nowhere my wife and her family are now convinced that the flu is much worse than Covid19 and that this indeed a complete and worldwide hoax meant to set us up for "something else about to happen" as she put it.

That is as of today and I am afraid for all of my family. I had wondered why she had been refusing to wear a mask when shopping and was down playing any need for social distancing.

Evidently it is a booming Facebook trend currently and church related. They are all posting this info as proof/

https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net...b5&oe=5EC36677

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One would think that a comparison of 2019 cases better represents the situation.

To me it is wishful thinking that people are more than willing to accept as fact.
If we ever fight a war that inconveniences us at home, we will likely surrender in a few weeks.

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Originally Posted by kingcat

One would think that a comparison of 2019 cases better represents the situation.

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Agreed. I was almost a statistic in one way and was a statistic for 2018. The combination of the flu and pneumonia winter of 2018 dang near put me in a box.

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Originally Posted by bigsky

well, “let’s stop for two weeks” might have been great, dan, and canceling sports. But to go from that to “ don’t open till nobody dies” was the big mistake.

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They ran away with it, esp, b/c if you put this solely in the hands of health care people they will always be super cautious and not consider other factors.

We're going to have to accept a certain level of death. that's just how the world works. We should have canceled big gatherings, but probably not closed every business of every kind no matter what. We could have targeted better.

In the end that's what will have to happen. We can't stay closed till this is gone b/c it's not leaving, maybe not forever and certainly not in the next few months.

Testing will be big, as will vaccines, but in the end we'll still lose people from it.

Just read about the Michigan governor's approach. Once the big box store is deemed essential to be open, let people in and be able to spend money. Once you are there, whether you wrestling for toilet paper, buying a toy or potting soil.

Prohibiting people from visiting their neighbors. Granted their will be who don't exercise good judgment, but not being allowed to visit a good friend or say an elderly person who needs items. It can go to extremes which really encourages people to revolt in extreme ways.

My wife and I have not seen anyone but people when I walk the dog or go to a store. We are doing our part to social distance. but

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

I really really hope you guys are right on all of this “re-opening”.
It scares me to death. We are so close to the numbers that health experts tell us we need to be. But we aren’t there.
And I’m so nervous this is going to spike like crazy in some of these states that let their foot off the gas.
And of course we have the President inciting his base in Michigan, Minn and Virginia. More and more protesters out.

I just don’t see how any of that is a good thing.
Really really think this is going to backfire. Hope to goodness I’m wrong.

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How and when the "reopening" happens is all opinion based. There is no right answer. There is no way we can eradicate the disease in the near term (nor probably long term).

Every stage of the reopening will be criticized on both sides, the open faster crowd and the open slower crowd.

IMO, the onus primarily falls on the individual, if you don't want to get it, quarantine yourself until there's a vaccine.

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Originally Posted by UKHistory

Urging civil disobedience of the America people in opposition to their state and local leaders is a dangerous approach by the president. Along the same lines but not amateurish and childish as Trump was when the state and cities tried to be sanctuary locations.

Heck Trump started griping about the second amendment when he was urging that Virginia liberate itself.

I get people being frustrated and scared. We all are. How do we reopen? I'd feel better about it with increased testing.

This tracking business seems a dangerous way for a democracy to operate.

To separate Trump's governing from his tweeting is not realistic. His behavior makes him unfit and unqualified to serve.

I want the country to open up as soon as we can while mitigating the risk. What does that look like? I don't know.

But having the President, any president behaving like a troll over a stateman is so counter productive. He make me physically ill.

I may or may not agree with Pence. However he at least communicates like an adult with cogent sentences, rational thought, etc.

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Right. Better if he would have said “resist” and protestors could wear masks and throw cement milkshakes on people. Yeah, and drummed up some impeachment charges to shut down legislatures.

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Originally Posted by UKHistory

Just read about the Michigan governor's approach. Once the big box store is deemed essential to be open, let people in and be able to spend money. Once you are there, whether you wrestling for toilet paper, buying a toy or potting soil.

Prohibiting people from visiting their neighbors. Granted their will be who don't exercise good judgment, but not being allowed to visit a good friend or say an elderly person who needs items. It can go to extremes which really encourages people to revolt in extreme ways.

My wife and I have not seen anyone but people when I walk the dog or go to a store. We are doing our part to social distance. but

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The backlash started b/c of Michigan and the obvious overreach.

Yes, the protests to just reopen and let it fly are not wise, but I"m good with people not being Ok with unnecessary and even offensive limits.

We are not watching the bodies pile up in the streets. We dont' have death trucks coming by to pick up the dead. The need for restrictions on even family gathering in a home is far far over the top based on the current situation. Advising people don't do so in larger groups is fine, but but outright banning visitation of any kind other than for care? Way too much.

People are OK with reasonable restrictions, but not extremes, and not forever with no foreseeable end.

it's like invading Afghanistan. We are there forever b/c there's no exit. We have to have an exit even for this. It may not be now, but it can't be to just sit like this until it goes away completely either.

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Originally Posted by bigsky

Right. Better if he would have said “resist” and protestors could wear masks and throw cement milkshakes on people. Yeah, and drummed up some impeachment charges to shut down legislatures.

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This. I love how Trump is fomenting revolution but Obama praising and bringing in organizations who encouraged killing of cops, well that was just being diverse.

What horsecrap. I went back and checked his tweets that were supposedly bringing down western civilization. Color me disappointed.

Trump did tweet about the 2nd Amendment issues in Virginia, and rightly so. He did also tweet about Michigan, b/c the governor thinks she has the authority to ban family from visiting each other in a situation where frankly we are not that bad off.

He does need to be careful, and I don't think it was wise, but it was as usual highly overblown by those who think he's a Russian agent or a demon sent to steal children's souls.

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Originally Posted by Basket Case

IMO, the onus primarily falls on the individual, if you don't want to get it, quarantine yourself until there's a vaccine.

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What?????

You want personal responsibility and common sense? What the heck? Do you think this is the 1700s man?

Lord, next you'll be suggesting radical notions like equality of opportunity and that people aren't born victims.

Of course there are problems like dumbass college kids not remembering they live with grandma, but surely we can do better than banning any family gatherings indefinitely under a blanket approach.

God help us.

Common sense says no cure that is unsustainable can be the only cure. It can be exactly what it was, a holding action to buy time. the question then becomes how much more time.

The key will be an antibody test, but even once we have one we will still need some common sense.

I think people will be surprised how much better hygiene and people not coughing and sneezing on each other would help. Other countries are getting by without this kind of universal lockdown b/c people are being careful to not wantonly infect others and they are trying to not get infected.

And yes some will be stupid, no argument. The question becomes where to draw the line to limit their damage. So maybe no big sporting events, but maybe it's OK to go get your hair done.

Is this the first time we’ve quarantined the healthy? Lots of information in the last 24 hours seems to indicated many states have now past the peak. If so, we need to start phase 1.....immediately.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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Originally Posted by MickintheHam

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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One of the best links posted in this thread.

If that link proves to be accurate, the death rate from COVID-19 will be in line with the flu for the year.

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Originally Posted by MickintheHam

Is this the first time we’ve quarantined the healthy? Lots of information in the last 24 hours seems to indicated many states have now past the peak. If so, we need to start phase 1.....immediately.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

If that link proves to be accurate, the death rate from COVID-19 will be in line with the flu for the year.

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With a 1 month quarantine. And that model is based on a longer one.

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Originally Posted by Basket Case

How and when the "reopening" happens is all opinion based. There is no right answer. There is no way we can eradicate the disease in the near term (nor probably long term).

Every stage of the reopening will be criticized on both sides, the open faster crowd and the open slower crowd.

IMO, the onus primarily falls on the individual, if you don't want to get it, quarantine yourself until there's a vaccine.

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This may not matter to anyone but I want to once again state that when to re-open has been a long held Scientific belief. It’s not new to the Coronavirus.
It’s been used in other parts of the world with many different viruses/diseases.
They have a formula in which it tells them it’s been sequestered enough to be in containment phase.

The page states social distancing, not quarantine.....

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

With a 1 month quarantine. And that model is based on a longer one.

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

The page states social distancing, not quarantine.....

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That isn't what I meant. I meant that our numbers are as low as they are BECAUSE of what we have done. If we didn't, our Covid numbers would be infinitely more than the flu. That is why the comparison is a fallacy.

As to the page (which I have looked at every day for a month now), it says "current social distancing". It means what we are doing right now. It means what some of us call "stay at home orders". Lockdown.

States like Georgia are going to be a great test sample for this (depending on if their Mayors play ball). They have not reached the level these models say need to be reached to re-open. They have not even reached the level the President's Plan says must be reached to start Phase One.

That is what is so damaging about his tweets btw. He came out with a very good 3-phase plan and gave guidelines on when they could start. And no state has reached those benchmarks. Not one. And yet he's tweeting and encouraging protests etc.

Agree about the actions to limit it.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

That isn't what I meant. I meant that our numbers are as low as they are BECAUSE of what we have done. If we didn't, our Covid numbers would be infinitely more than the flu. That is why the comparison is a fallacy.

As to the page (which I have looked at every day for a month now), it says "current social distancing". It means what we are doing right now. It means what some of us call "stay at home orders". Lockdown.

States like Georgia are going to be a great test sample for this (depending on if their Mayors play ball). They have not reached the level these models say need to be reached to re-open. They have not even reached the level the President's Plan says must be reached to start Phase One.

That is what is so damaging about his tweets btw. He came out with a very good 3-phase plan and gave guidelines on when they could start. And no state has reached those benchmarks. Not one. And yet he's tweeting and encouraging protests etc.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

This may not matter to anyone but I want to once again state that when to re-open has been a long held Scientific belief. It’s not new to the Coronavirus.
It’s been used in other parts of the world with many different viruses/diseases.
They have a formula in which it tells them it’s been sequestered enough to be in containment phase.

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Whose "belief" is this, and I'm sure some scientists disagree with whatever metric is used. How is this "belief" applied for this virus that we have never seen with its specific infection rate, mortality, etc. It is ultimately an opinion(s) that will determine when things open.

Certainly you must agree that the economic impact will have some effect on this decision too, no?

Lastly, a pesky issue arises in the comparison to remedies/methods used in the rest of the world, our Constitution and its Amendments. Despite many levels of government trying to prohibit people from visiting each other, assembling, or even being forced to stay at home, there is really no power for this to be accomplished. So I suppose that what has been used in other parts of the world, often won't be applicable here.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Not Pedro (who I would love to hear from) but I have read a decent amount on this.

The key to a triple test like this is that they can more closely identify if someone has fully recovered or not. Some of the serology tests only test a single immunoglobulin1, which although good, means someone could still potentially infect others even though they are at the end of their virus run and have begun to develop antibodies.

As far as timeline...I know that one of the Biotech companies in California that just developed a test and had submitted it to the FDA said they expected approval in 2 months. I am guessing that is consistent across the board.

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FYI, this notice just came through my email:

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Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. (BIO) has started the commercial launch of its blood-based kit test which is used to screen if patients have developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19...On an update on regulatory hurdles, Bio-Rad said the company has met the CE mark requirements for Europe and has applied for Emergency Use Authorization status awarded by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

“Having applied for FDA Emergency Use Authorization and meeting the requirements for CE marking, we have begun shipping the test and are in the process of scaling up manufacturing to meet demand in the weeks and months ahead,” Dara Wright, Bio-Rad Clinical Diagnostics Group EVP & President said. Clinical evaluation of the SARS-CoV-2 Total Ab test has demonstrated diagnostic specificity of more than 99 percent and diagnostic sensitivity of 98 percent. Cross-reactivity testing demonstrated specificity of 100 percent with no reactivity against other interfering specimens including non-CoV-2 coronaviruses.

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The results of the preliminary data sound actually pretty good. It would not surprise me if they aren't far off from outright FDA approval when it comes to data.

Great to hear.

The FDA needs to be thinking 2 weeks, not 2 months.