Originally Posted by
ukpumacat
If you (we) take off all political hats and just focus on numbers...its all about Pennsylvania. You can throw the national numbers out and just focus on a few states. But, PA is the big one.
Trump has to win Pennsylvania (and that is if he wins Ohio, Florida and North Carolina) to win. Biden does as well.
The last 5 polls out of PA have Biden up 9, 5, 7, 9 and 4 (in that order). Trump has to improve there or he's toast. He won there in 2016 by a half % point against a very unpopular candidate. Biden is popular in PA as he's from there. I expect he wins.
From a Biden perspective, they will push hard in Ohio and Florida even though they don't need to win either one to win. Why? Because both have Republican Governors and Trump has publicly said he trusts those states for mail in ballots. Also, those two states count mail ins before the election and so will have concrete numbers on election night (while other states will take days to count since their rules say they have to be postmarked by Election Day). If Biden wins either, even other Republicans will come out and say Trump lost.