Coronavirus

This article is not encouraging. I saw another new one today that does not think the summer will help.
I can tell you this, I would not want to be the President right now.
I don’t think there is going to be an easy way to handle this.
He’s obviously itching to lift these restrictions but America simply isn’t built to deal well with this afterwards. They can’t track cased by cell phone data like China. People are going to ignore masks quickly. And ignore large gathering restrictions.
We aren’t ready for the testing.
I honestly have no idea what he should do because the government cannot pay everyone’s salary for 3 more months.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/w...ntl/index.html

Part of the problem with running trillion dollar deficits for infinity during good times is when the bad times hit, everyone assumes we can just run higher deficits to pay everybody for as long as it takes. So your Average Guy or Gal out there sees "the government cannot pay everyone's salary for 3 more months" and says "Why not?"

But the restrictions on living will not sit well for much longer, and the optimisitic projections are just going to fuel people's desire to "return to normalcy." And at this point we're not ready for another wave of this. Maybe by fall, but not summer. I very much hope I'm wrong.

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

And at this point we're not ready for another wave of this. Maybe by fall, but not summer. I very much hope I'm wrong.

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I agree. We are not. Our front line workers are exhausted. I have several friends who are Dr's and nurses and they are simply spent.
People are overall doing a good job with this lockdown but they will not if it happens again in the summer. We will begin to see a lot of rule breaking and a lot of frustrated people. That could easily lead to a lot of looting etc.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

This article is not encouraging. I saw another new one today that does not think the summer will help.
I can tell you this, I would not want to be the President right now.
I don’t think there is going to be an easy way to handle this.
He’s obviously itching to lift these restrictions but America simply isn’t built to deal well with this afterwards. They can’t track cased by cell phone data like China. People are going to ignore masks quickly. And ignore large gathering restrictions.
We aren’t ready for the testing.
I honestly have no idea what he should do because the government cannot pay everyone’s salary for 3 more months.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/w...ntl/index.html

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One of the reasons why I don't see Trump as having done a bad job is that most PResidents honestly get through their terms with no major crisis at all. A few minor ones maybe, but few that are like this, i.e. war level events.

And judged by that standard we're doing pretty well. Deaths are down, no one has lost their minds, there isn't looting and rioting. We're hanging in there. That's a win.

But I agree we're early into this process, and it could still get ugly. Trump's off the cuff over the top way of communicating isn't useful, but his ability to make decisions and project strength is helpful.

But he's far from out of the woods, as are we all.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

I agree. We are not. Our front line workers are exhausted. I have several friends who are Dr's and nurses and they are simply spent.
People are overall doing a good job with this lockdown but they will not if it happens again in the summer. We will begin to see a lot of rule breaking and a lot of frustrated people. That could easily lead to a lot of looting etc.

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I doubt we see that simply b/c we we're writing everyone a check to be good. As long as the money holds out were great.

As BEvans pointed out, the issue is we've been spending like fools while times were good instead of paying off our debts, so now when we really need debt capacity we're racking up deficits we'll never pay off.

I do think we'd better come up with some way to operate at a higher capacity and still keep this thing down to a dull roar. Maybe 100% masks is a way to go, it's certainly the approach in Asia. Simply require masks in all public places, no questions asked. Not sure if that's enough.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

One of the reasons why I don't see Trump as having done a bad job is that most PResidents honestly get through their terms with no major crisis at all. A few minor ones maybe, but few that are like this, i.e. war level events.

And judged by that standard we're doing pretty well. Deaths are down, no one has lost their minds, there isn't looting and rioting. We're hanging in there. That's a win.

But I agree we're early into this process, and it could still get ugly. Trump's off the cuff over the top way of communicating isn't useful, but his ability to make decisions and project strength is helpful.

But he's far from out of the woods, as are we all.

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Trump could have taken this bull by the horns, acted presidential, and basically wrapped up his re-election. Instead he’s basically done the exact opposite and it’s reflected in the polls where he trails Biden by 6-8 points across the board. He’s his own worst enemy.

On the lighter side:

Attachment 9318

So, an update on this. Several of us were guessing why they had zero deaths in June and July on the models with restrictions in place through the end of May.

They have now updated their FAQ page to address this very question. The answer is very optimistic and hopeful, albeit still surprising to me.



When can social distancing measures be relaxed?

Our model assumes social distancing stays in place until the pandemic, in its current phase, reaches the point when deaths are less than 0.3 per million people. Based on our latest projections, we expect social distancing measures to be in place through the end of May.

The timeline could change based on what data show about the trajectory of the pandemic. In the meantime, we are working to forecast what would happen if social distancing measures are lifted before the pandemic is under control, and we will share these projections as soon as our work is complete.

Our forecasts of zero deaths in July and August assume that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. These measures may include mass screening, contact tracing, testing of all individuals entering the country, and quarantine of people who test positive. Details on what these strategies need to be will be analyzed in future editions of the forecasts.

Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

By the end of May, when we anticipate transmission will drop to a very low level, most people are still likely to be susceptible to the disease. Until a vaccine is developed, some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nationwide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

If the above is true...let's keep these measures in place and get rid of this damned thing. I am still skeptical that is what would happen but those people are much smarter than I am.

Odds are it will never be "zero", any more than the flu will be zero. Only way to get it to zero would be it goes by the way of Polio and is eradicated, which would take years if not decades.

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Originally Posted by Doc

Odds are it will never be "zero", any more than the flu will be zero. Only way to get it to zero would be it goes by the way of Polio and is eradicated, which would take years if not decades.

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Agreed. But I will take the optimism. ha

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

If the above is true...let's keep these measures in place and get rid of this damned thing. I am still skeptical that is what would happen but those people are much smarter than I am.

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They mention "contact tracing". That's a useful tool for this, but one we probably could never implement.

I've been wondering how South Korea did so well. One of the ways is they have done a LOT Of tracing, including public reporting of people who are infected so those who were around them could come in. The US has actual laws against that kind of reporting.

I personally think in this case it's a good idea, but we haven't implemented it at all, e.g. publishing in the papers the names of the infected.

They also GPS track the phones, etc. Again, a privacy issue in the US.

I'm for suspending that for medical and health reasons, but I have yet to see anyone from either party recommend those moves.

Trump briefly mentioned it today. Apple and Google actually worked together to create this.
We can use it if we want to.
Like you, I think we should.

Funny, it took the Coronavirus to get a libertarian and a liberal to agree....and of all things it’s on data tracing. Ha

But honestly, I’m all for whatever will get the economy working while keeping this thing at bay.

FWIW, I did read that Apple and Google are making it all voluntary. And to be honest, I think a lot of people will participate in that right now. A LOT.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

I love the Science happening all over.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...anger-n1178436

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It isn't just the science. People (and the markets) haven't fully evaluated the innovations to come from the shutdowns. People and businesses have scrambled to survive. In the process many are reinventing themselves. Even restaurants are finding new ways to survive. One restaurant owner here in Birmingham has added a grocery to his business. He is selling the chicken he can't serve in the restaurant to customers who can't find chicken and beef in the grocery stores. One of my great friends owns a grocery/deli/butcher shop. Profit came largely from the lunchtime deli business which has been been decimated by the shutdown. But he has found a way to get meat much faster from his suppliers to grow the butcher and grocery part of his business. When normalcy returns he has plans for an immediate expansion. People managing business are really learning during this period. And what they are learning is going to spark innovation across the country.

The only thing in my lifetime that I can compare this era of innovation to was when I worked in Atlanta during the '96 Olympics. We shutdown our headquarters, a 46 story office building, and told everyone to work from home. Everyone clamored that it would be lost business for a month from which we never would recover. We found a way to get laptops in every employee's hands, and being in ATL we accelerated the rollout of fiber cable to the areas with the largest residential concentration of our employees. These were the days when work at home was in its infancy and no businessman took it seriously. What we learned about technology changed the way it was deployed.

While the anti-Trump press will focus on those who have been harmed in the last month, they will miss the real story of what has been learned and how it will change business....forever. That's one reason why buying into this market may be a great idea

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Originally Posted by MickintheHam

While the anti-Trump press will focus on those who have been harmed in the last month, they will miss the real story of what has been learned and how it will change business....forever. That's one reason why buying into this market may be a great idea

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Agreed.

This page is fascinating to me (if not scary to some). It tracks by data and grades states on how well they are doing the "Stay at Home" orders.

Very interesting to see the difference based on red states and blue states.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/soci...ard#scoreboard

I have concern about the tracing and monitoring.

That is genie you don’t put back in the bottle. Technology already limits our liberty. People will sign up for this in droves.

This is a remedy worse than the disease.

Sincere Christians will rebel at anything that resembles the mark of the beast...to the death (as would I) So facial recognition (a huge no-no for me) or hand/thumb prints (also) are out as far as an economic and social hall pass goes.

Anything that severe would 100% signal the end and Christ's quick return, imo.

That's not to say it cannot be implemented in stages and fool many.

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Originally Posted by UKHistory

I have concern about the tracing and monitoring.

That is genie you don’t put back in the bottle. Technology already limits our liberty. People will sign up for this in droves.

This is a remedy worse than the disease.

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You can’t stop technology, though Washington bureaucrats believe they are intellectually superior enough and powerful enough to do it. Let’s see the benefits of what these two China centric companies can do for the US. As I said the amount of innovation that is currently being unleashed in terms of the urgency with which it is being deployed is incredible. This technology is probably no more harmful to the average citizen that what the Russians and Chinese have unleashed on the world.

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Originally Posted by kingcat

Sincere Christians will rebel at anything that resembles the mark of the beast...to the death (as would I) So facial recognition (a huge no-no for me) or hand/thumb prints (also) are out as far as an economic and social hall pass goes.

Anything that severe would 100% signal the end and Christ's quick return, imo.

That's not to say it cannot be implemented in stages and fool many.

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I’m not wanting to get into a religious discussion, but most Christians would consider his return a good thing, no?

And more importantly, this has been said since literally 33 AD. His generation expected his return.
In the year 1,000 parts of the world shut down because they were so convinced of the rapture.
I remember billboards all over in Kentucky and Tennessee (like literally everywhere) when I was 12 because it was the “Rapture in 88”.
Obama was the antichrist. Until he wasn’t. Same with a zillion other people.
When the first credit card went global Christians all over said the same thing: “I will never get one. It’s the mark of the beast”.
But it wasn’t.
And this isn’t either.
If it can save lives (and I think it would) I’m all for it.

Certainly..our hope, promise, and salvation.

And I personally believe that the real believers (not just claimers hedging their bets) will be taken out of the world before this comes about.

But I would not have you to be ignorant, brethren, concerning them which are asleep, that ye sorrow not, even as others which have no hope. For if we believe that Jesus died and rose again, even so them also which sleep in Jesus will God bring with him.
For this we say unto you by the word of the Lord, that we which are alive and remain unto the coming of the Lord shall not prevent them which are asleep.

For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first: Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord. Wherefore comfort one another with these words.

But hope remains for those that remain,, both those who were pretty sure Christ exists and those who are persuaded after the fact.
But they must face this ending, in a world without God's personal presence (the body of believers and Holy Spirit) to be saved.
They are considered saints regardless because they now believe wholeheartedly. Again, my personal opinion, and I believe from the Lord.

The mark itself will be in either the forehead or the hand, worldwide. And you will not be able to buy or sell without it. A few other things, foretold in a symbolic way, will also happen.

And anyone who accepts the mark, whenever and whatever it is....can be neither forgiven or saved into Gods kingdom.

No exception.

And it was given unto him (The antichrist and beast of revelation) to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.
And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.

If any man have an ear, let him hear. He that leadeth into captivity shall go into captivity: he that killeth with the sword must be killed with the sword. Here is the patience and the faith of the saints.
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The Beast Out of the Earth, which is the false prophet, not the beast himself

And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon. And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.
And he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men, And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which he had power to do in the sight of the beast; saying to them that dwell on the earth, that they should make an image to the beast, which had the wound by a sword, and did live.
And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.

The Mark of the Beast

And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast:
for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.

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Originally Posted by kingcat

The mark will be in either the forehead or the hand, worldwide. And you will not be able to buy or sell without it.

And anyone who accepts the mark, whenever and whatever it is....can be neither forgiven or saved into Gods kingdom.

No exception.

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Well, then its not a chip in your phone.

But, as for the point I was trying to make.

In the face of this type crisis and in the digital age, billions of Christians will be appalled by any thing resembling the prophecy of the mark. One cant compare any other time in history to this...nor any Christian response to end times events, either real or perceived

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Well, then its not a chip in your phone.

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I certainly doubt it. Nor was it a SS card.

But there are many who thought it could be.
One has to understand the passion and concern about it, and the desire to play it safe.
And weigh in the many differing interpretations that might lead someone to do so.

I can see the dangerous scenario of it becoming a self fulfilling prophecy for some. And an equally contagious one.

Also, a pestilence alone is not the indication of the literal end time. But to some it may seem as such depending on how governments deal with it..

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Originally Posted by kingcat

But, as for the point I was trying to make.

In the face of this type crisis and in the digital age, billions of Christians will be appalled by any thing resembling the prophecy of the mark. One cant compare any other time in history to this...nor any Christian response to end times events, either real or perceived

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In the digital age, yes, we haven’t seen anything like this.

But as a History major I can tell you that nothing will come close to the year 1,000 as far as this belief/rhetoric/etc.
People by the thousands literally sold everything they owned in preparation for it.
We are nowhere near that.
In fact, outside of you posting it, I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere else right now. And I follow a lot of Christian friends etc.
I certainly believe it’s out there. Just saying nothing compared to that. Or even 1988 for that matter.
Until we start seeing billboards and commercials declaring this the end times.

Surprised this hasn’t occurred sooner. It may have, I’m just not aware of it though. May be seeing it In my newsfeed since it’s Louisville news...

https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...es/2976560001/

https://apple.news/AgwFETjXaRR6h3U6JnKud4A

In this area and among my several hundred facebook friends and contacts, its a relatively common theme.

Even more than 5G being the cause of the virus. ;)

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Originally Posted by kingcat

In this area and among my several hundred facebook friends and contacts, its a relatively common theme.

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I believe you. Just doubt any are selling everything they own to prepare for it.

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

Surprised this hasn’t occurred sooner. It may have, I’m just not aware of it though. May be seeing it In my newsfeed since it’s Louisville news...

https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...es/2976560001/


https://apple.news/AgwFETjXaRR6h3U6JnKud4A

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We have to wear our seatbelts to protect ourselves. We’re not allowed to drive intoxicated to protect ourselves and others. Is this really that different?

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Originally Posted by Catfan73

We have to wear our seatbelts to protect ourselves. We’re not allowed to drive intoxicated to protect ourselves and others. Is this really that different?

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First off yes, it is. At least it requires a far more delicate balance. Constitutionally protected freedoms, despite popular belief, are NOT our only rights, but they are our most dear ones.

Second, seatbelt laws are easily the most clear example of unconstitutional government overreach in the US today. Why? Bc if I in my car alone don't wear my seatbelt I'm breaking the law, yet me not wearing it creates NO external loss of rights of others or in any way violates their property or liberty.

That is the role of government's internal legislation. To prevent one person's actions from infringing on the rights or property of others. It's that simple.

Drunk driving could easily infringe on the rights of others, thus is is rightly regulated. In this case with the virus we do have a certain obligation to regulate as the disease can spread through those who are irresponsible. But where it's a right like freedom of religion we do have to be careful and fair.

For example, saying "well food is necessary do drive throughs are OK for it but religion isn't so they can't have one" is an EXTREMELY dangerous precedent. Those who have faith do not consider it non-essential.

Now, for a time to ask people to practice worship without being in close proximity is reasonable. But we do have to be sensitive to the fact that faith is a critical thing for many, and it must be respected.

But none of this is like seatbelt laws, which should be stricken from the books. Yes they save lives, and so would us having "internal passports" as being suggested now or go with AOC's Green new Deal where travel has to be approved. ALl would reduce the number of people on roads and thus save lives, but, and here's the big thing:

America was founded b/c we chose liberty over safety. The Founders accepted, and we should continue to accept, that it means some will do foolish things that will cause themselves harm, and sometimes even cause others harm, but we are not willing to lose the rights of the many unless there is more than a small loss of life.

Otherwise we'd ban private swimming pools, bungee jumping for fun, etc. We don't bc we believe people have a right to pursue their happiness too.

There are free exercise issues, and the city was also enforcing the idea of social distancing preferentially. They said they were wanting to ban drive-in church because some people still got within 6 feet of one another. Well, there was video of golfers breaking the 6 foot rule on the city golf courses but they didn't shut the courses down. Instead the mayor asked the golfers "Pretty please" but kept the courses open so the city could make that sweet, sweet money.

I'm somebody who probably won't be back in church for a while even after the bans go away, but the Mayor overreached on this one and the judge was right to issue the order IMHO.

The bigger issue with this particular item if it were to fly unquestioned, what would the next one be? Because there would be a next time, and next issue. There always is.
The first amendment is pretty explicit about government CAN’T do. Yet, it did it today to churches except On Fire which filed the suit. Fisher is playing with fire here....

As for the right to worship and the legality of preventing it in a national emergency. I would ask them that, if in a black out during wartime would the constitution also guarantee them the right to disregard it? That is, if such light and the gathering were to have been visible from the air or sea as it were?

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Originally Posted by Catfan73

We have to wear our seatbelts to protect ourselves. We’re not allowed to drive intoxicated to protect ourselves and others. Is this really that different?

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The first amendment doesn’t address those issues.

I believe a Martial Law declaration would remove constitutional rights in this situation.

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Originally Posted by kingcat

As for the right to worship and the legality of preventing it in a national emergency. I would ask them that, if in a black out during wartime would the constitution also guarantee them the right to disregard it? That is, if such light and the gathering were to have been visible from the air or sea as it were?

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Is this really infringing on anyone’s ability to practice the religion of their choosing though? The 1st amendment also says we have the right to free speech but you can’t walk into a crowded theater and start yelling Fire! because people will get hurt in the ensuing rush to get out.

You’re leaving out the “peaceably assemble part....”

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Originally Posted by Catfan73

Is this really infringing on anyone’s ability to practice the religion of their choosing though? The 1st amendment also says we have the right to free speech but you can’t walk into a crowded theater and start yelling Fire! because people will get hurt in the ensuing rush to get out.

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Originally Posted by Catfan73

Is this really infringing on anyone’s ability to practice the religion of their choosing though? The 1st amendment also says we have the right to free speech but you can’t walk into a crowded theater and start yelling Fire! because people will get hurt in the ensuing rush to get out.

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Wow. I never thought I'd hear something like "freedom of religion doesn't require you to go to a house of worship, so it's OK to restrict it". that's something you hear in totalitarian states as they slowly erode constitutions.

American citizens are born with ALL of their rights. We collectively turn over the very minimum required to government for a basic governance of the social contract. We retain everything else.

Your argument is incredibly dangerous. We may need to temporarily restrict gatherings, but the idea that is somehow constitutional to do so is dangerous beyond belief. It's not constitutional, but we do sometimes have to suspend those rights in times of absolute crisis. Lincoln suspended habeus corpus during the Civil War in some cases, etc.

But to start to make those rights fungible and to argue that it's ever not a right is horrifying. We need to know this is absolutely a Constitutionally guaranteed right, that we are only very temporarily suspending that right due to the current crisis, but that the government has no authority whatsoever to do anything about it other than in the most dire of circumstances.

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Originally Posted by Catfan73

Is this really infringing on anyone’s ability to practice the religion of their choosing though? The 1st amendment also says we have the right to free speech but you can’t walk into a crowded theater and start yelling Fire! because people will get hurt in the ensuing rush to get out.

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So one must go to a church to practice your religion?

Personally I have no feelings on this one way or the other but IMO restricting any groups ability to congregate/assemble does not restrict their ability to practice or believe in anything. It prevents them from congregating. Closing bars isn't prohibition. Closing restaurants does not prohibit me from eating. Closing churches/mosques/synagogues does not prohibit me from being religious. It just restricts the number of people who can gather in a location.