Coronavirus

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Honestly I'm more interested in the curve with New York excluded at this point as it skews the national results so much. Not that they aren't all running out of new york and infecting the rest of us.

---

This is already in every state. We don't need New Yorkers for that (although they have certainly made it worse in some places). The real issue will simply be how do Governors deal with it.
New Jersey looks awful now. Florida will be bad. Louisiana will be bad. Michigan will be bad. Illinois. etc.

And there are some other states that don't show a lot now, but I feel like are heading that direction: Texas and Georgia are not looking good early.
Their governors have not taken it as serious as they should and they have all the early indicators of states that could get hit hard.

I am so glad the President changed his mind on the dumb Easter thing and listened to the health professionals. And extended this another month. But, governors HAVE to clamp down.
I read about a megachurch in Florida that had church on Sunday. That should be criminal right now.
The states that do not have a lot of cases need to clamp down now so that they don't. Its that simple.
Give it 30 days. Let the Science, manufacturers and hospitals catch up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ukpumacat

This is already in every state. We don't need New Yorkers for that (although they have certainly made it worse in some places). The real issue will simply be how do Governors deal with it.
New Jersey looks awful now. Florida will be bad. Louisiana will be bad. Michigan will be bad. Illinois. etc.

And there are some other states that don't show a lot now, but I feel like are heading that direction: Texas and Georgia are not looking good early.
Their governors have not taken it as serious as they should and they have all the early indicators of states that could get hit hard.

I am so glad the President changed his mind on the dumb Easter thing and listened to the health professionals. And extended this another month. But, governors HAVE to clamp down.
I read about a megachurch in Florida that had church on Sunday. That should be criminal right now.
The states that do not have a lot of cases need to clamp down now so that they don't. Its that simple.
Give it 30 days. Let the Science, manufacturers and hospitals catch up.

---

This will continue to spread from high population density coastal areas to the rural areas of the interior. The best hope is enough of the malaria meds and Zithromax can be produced to annihilate the virus before it kills too many.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KeithKSR

This will continue to spread from high population density coastal areas to the rural areas of the interior. The best hope is enough of the malaria meds and Zithromax can be produced to annihilate the virus before it kills too many.

---

Zithromax? Isn’t that an antibiotic? Because viruses aren’t living things that you can kill. Using antibiotics when the illness is caused by a virus can actually make you feel worse, stay sick longer, and if everyone starts taking it will just make the problems worse that we already have with resistant bacteria.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Catfan73

Zithromax? Isn’t that an antibiotic? Because viruses aren’t living things that you can kill. Using antibiotics when the illness is caused by a virus can actually make you feel worse, stay sick longer, and if everyone starts taking it will just make the problems worse that we already have with resistant bacteria.

---

The Z pack in conjunction with the Chloroquine is showing promise I believe.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Catfan73

Zithromax? Isn’t that an antibiotic? Because viruses aren’t living things that you can kill. Using antibiotics when the illness is caused by a virus can actually make you feel worse, stay sick longer, and if everyone starts taking it will just make the problems worse that we already have with resistant bacteria.

---

The virus causes bacterial pneumonia, which is why the Zithromax. The malaria meds lay the whammy to the virus itself, but does nothing to the pneumonia.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KeithKSR

The virus causes bacterial pneumonia, which is why the Zithromax. The malaria meds lay the whammy to the virus itself, but does nothing to the pneumonia.

---

and it is an "odd" pneumonia. They believe it might be immune mediate but that may be old info. Most pneumonia I see start as viral then become bacterial

Heard the Chris "Frodo" Cuomo tested positive. His brother spent 10 minutes during his daily presser lamenting on what a nice guy Chris is.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doc

Heard the Chris "Frodo" Cuomo tested positive. His brother spent 10 minutes during his daily presser lamenting on what a nice guy Chris is.

---

*By New York standards.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

*By New York standards.

---

Yeah...he only uses "####ing" ever third word, compared to every other word.

New York now at 3887 cases per million of state population.
US at 540 per million of population.
US is at 327 cases per million with NY factored out.

Necessity is the mother of invention.....Italian docs have made masks from snorkels..
Attachment 9281

For weeks, New York, Washington and California were the 3 “hot spots” and had the most cases.
Now, California and Washington are no longer in the top 3.
New Jersey and Michigan are with Florida, Illinois and Massachusetts fast approaching.

What a nightmare.

Chart used in today's briefing modeling deaths/day peaking around April 15:

Attachment 9284

Dr. Birx calls the shaded area the "confidence interval," which I think of as the cone of uncertainty on hurricane tracks. She says the goal is to get that tighter & farther depressed with mitigation measures.

Typically in stats a confidence interval will be 95% or 98%. That is to say there's a 95% or 98% chance the actual result/value/outcome is within the given range. My memory of stats is fading over the years, but that much I recall, lol. so I imagine this is one of those two numbers, so that's the likely scenario based on their numbers right now.

The problem is the entire scenario shifts every day.

Complete aside, I looked at one of my old college notebooks a while back with pages of option pricing and other financial models. Lots of calculus and statistics and I could barely read the thing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

Chart used in today's briefing modeling deaths/day peaking around April 15:

Attachment 9284

Dr. Birx calls the shaded area the "confidence interval," which I think of as the cone of uncertainty on hurricane tracks. She says the goal is to get that tighter & farther depressed with mitigation measures.

---

That model is a bit heartening in the since that it goes down so quickly after the late April/Early May timeline. However, I wonder what their models look like if they take off the restrictions at the end of April.

As we have said, we just really really need the testing and medicine.

Btw, I have been very critical of how the President handled this early on. But he has done a very good job in the Press Conference today. He's a very interesting guy (as Chuck and I keep saying). He's a real Jekyl and Hyde. Today, he is sobering and being a leader. Tomorrow, who knows.

And in his defense (and I will rarely do that), can some of the reporters stop asking the same stupid questions they have for weeks now. They do these every single day. Let's stick to the newest and current news. A few of the questions have been terrific. The ones about the new medicine, etc.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Btw, I have been very critical of how the President handled this early on. But he has done a very good job in the Press Conference today. He's a very interesting guy (as Chuck and I keep saying). He's a real Jekyl and Hyde. Today, he is sobering and being a leader. Tomorrow, who knows.

And in his defense (and I will rarely do that), can some of the reporters stop asking the same stupid questions they have for weeks now. They do these every single day. Let's stick to the newest and current news. A few of the questions have been terrific. The ones about the new medicine, etc.

---

He's a complete enigma. He's given some speeches that are every bit as good as any POTUS in my lifetime, where he's composed, serious, but also inspires and is sincere. Then the next day he tweets name calling to people. It's bizarre.

As for the reporters, I get why Trump is so negative with them. Whether one thinks Trump messed up early on or not why ask every damned day? They're all "have you stopped beating your wife" questions, where they act appalled that Trump doesn't just say "yeah I was awful, I don't deserve to be President, I'm resigning" in response.

But that's how they have treated him since Day One, just a more incensed and vicious version of how they treat every conservative politician. They're indignant that someone they disagree with is actually in charge, and REALLY indignant it's someone as utterly uncouth as Trump.

And that's why so many people do like Trump. They've felt that condescension in the media for a very long time, and Trump is also the first one to call them out on it and "fight back" as it is seen. And I'm actually glad he does it, I just don't like his methods. Calling names etc. is just stupid, but calling them out for their hack questions and never win attitude and deep bias is absolutely good. If he just handled it with some intelligence, even some wit, he'd get a lot farther.

FDR was good at the witty approach. Trump could be, he's quick on his feet with talking, but it comes off mean and hateful instead of smart and clever.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

He's a complete enigma. He's given some speeches that are every bit as good as any POTUS in my lifetime, where he's composed, serious, but also inspires and is sincere. Then the next day he tweets name calling to people. It's bizarre.

As for the reporters, I get why Trump is so negative with them. Whether one thinks Trump messed up early on or not why ask every damned day? They're all "have you stopped beating your wife" questions, where they act appalled that Trump doesn't just say "yeah I was awful, I don't deserve to be President, I'm resigning" in response.

But that's how they have treated him since Day One, just a more incensed and vicious version of how they treat every conservative politician. They're indignant that someone they disagree with is actually in charge, and REALLY indignant it's someone as utterly uncouth as Trump.

And that's why so many people do like Trump. They've felt that condescension in the media for a very long time, and Trump is also the first one to call them out on it and "fight back" as it is seen. And I'm actually glad he does it, I just don't like his methods. Calling names etc. is just stupid, but calling them out for their hack questions and never win attitude and deep bias is absolutely good. If he just handled it with some intelligence, even some wit, he'd get a lot farther.

FDR was good at the witty approach. Trump could be, he's quick on his feet with talking, but it comes off mean and hateful instead of smart and clever.

---

And more proof of him being an enigma. Today, Jim Acosta was annoying ME. And Trump brushed it off and made a joke. Other days, he would have undone all the good he said today by saying something ridiculous.
I agree with you. I am critical of the job he did early on. I don't need to hear the question or the response every living day. Just stick to what is current.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ukpumacat

And more proof of him being an enigma. Today, Jim Acosta was annoying ME. And Trump brushed it off and made a joke. Other days, he would have undone all the good he said today by saying something ridiculous.
I agree with you. I am critical of the job he did early on. I don't need to hear the question or the response every living day. Just stick to what is current.

---

I can't explain it. As you said, he's the ultimate jekyll and hyde.

One other thing I've always said, even when defending him (b/c even when he's Hyde he's not the anti-christ) is that working for him must be a living hell. It doesn't mean his staff is right and he is wrong, just that he's going to be all over the place and you never know if he's going to handle it with calm focus or a lunatic rant.

Speaking of the other thread, that kinda reminds me of my mom a little... ;)

And honestly I have no use for the White House Press Corps at all. Haven't since way before Trump. Very very few of them really ask insightful questions versus political talking points, going back before Trump.

Some do, and more used to, but now it's more just political sword play versus real briefings and substance. It was more pleasant with obama b/c they loved him, but it still wasn't useful.

Comments to the point of the press corps by Brit Hume, who I think is great:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/brit-h...orce-briefings

"Reporters are like people who have one tool," he said. "You've heard the famous saying, 'If the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.'"

"If the only thing you've ever been is a political reporter and you are covering the White House briefings on a major worldwide pandemic, you might be tempted to ask a lot of political questions, which is what they've done."

"If you dismiss these as nothing but rallies," Hume concluded, "you are missing the point. If you are asking questions about nothing but politics, you are missing it again.""

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Btw, I have been very critical of how the President handled this early on. But he has done a very good job in the Press Conference today. He's a very interesting guy (as Chuck and I keep saying). He's a real Jekyl and Hyde. Today, he is sobering and being a leader. Tomorrow, who knows.

And in his defense (and I will rarely do that), can some of the reporters stop asking the same stupid questions they have for weeks now. They do these every single day. Let's stick to the newest and current news. A few of the questions have been terrific. The ones about the new medicine, etc.

---

I won’t argue with the Jekyl-Hyde comments, but having worked for a number of people like him in public emergency situations, his behavior traits are somewhat common. You don’t pay attention to the words. You evaluate the results. Words are generated to get a certain form of behavior or a particular result.

It was very evident in his tariff negotiations with the Chinese. Trump was Criticized for labeling this the “Chinese” virus. Why? It was a message to the Chinese that they were responsible for putting out false information about how the disease was spread. There are a lot of back channel talks, regarding wet markets and reported statistics. His label is reinforcing the messaging that is not taking place in the public arena. While the leaders may not be talking directly Trump’s message gets through when he puts the label out there. It is his way of embarrassing the Chinese government and getting them to own up to their role in tthe pandemic.

Local news detail -- Biggest gathering problem in kentucky (at least Lexington) is home improvement stores. People flocking to them right now.

Home Depot today is now letting in 100 people at a time, counting them out. The Gov was on them this week and said he spoke with their corporate people about it. It really is a problem as most there arent' masked etc.

It what could be optimistic news locally, UAB Hospital In Patient Covid 19 cases peaked at 62 on March 26. The last 4 days the count has been 53 -52-52-52. Fingers crossed it is a trend.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Local news detail -- Biggest gathering problem in kentucky (at least Lexington) is home improvement stores. People flocking to them right now.

Home Depot today is now letting in 100 people at a time, counting them out. The Gov was on them this week and said he spoke with their corporate people about it. It really is a problem as most there arent' masked etc.

---

Which btw, I do understand. People have nothing else to do, so they want to get yard work done. I made a big run before this started and tried to get enough to plant, etc. But that was done in about two days.

Totally understandable, but now we're seeing shortages of building supplies, lol.

If everyone who went would wear masks and gloves and stay their distance that would be fine, but most aren't really making the proper effort.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Local news detail -- Biggest gathering problem in kentucky (at least Lexington) is home improvement stores. People flocking to them right now.

Home Depot today is now letting in 100 people at a time, counting them out. The Gov was on them this week and said he spoke with their corporate people about it. It really is a problem as most there arent' masked etc.

---

We went to HomenDepot today. Are doing that in FL as well where 1 person out/1 person in. We bought some shrubs, working on the yard. This afternoon I had a rhizotomy. Glad my Dr was not closed for "elective" procedures because my back pain is not what I consider elective

Least shocking conclusion of this entire episode: Intelligence reports find that China is lying about their numbers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elligence-says

I've seen estimates that they knowingly hid the outbreak for 2 months. No doubt they downplayed the data even as it was becoming apparent there was a problem. That alone has led the world into a delayed response, not just in the US but globally.

Now they paint themselves as saviors. It's like a doctor botching your surgery then expecting gratitude when he goes back in and fixes it.

BTW the estimates out there being reported by Radio Free Asia and others put the Wuhan death toll alone in the 45,000 range.

China has disappeared another doctor.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/chines...id-19-vanishes

NY now at 4300 cases per million of state population

I've been saying we need a National Stay at Home order for 30 days for a couple of weeks now. I actually think there is wisdom in allowing Governors to make that call. But since some won't, Trump has to do it.

Kentucky has done well without a complete "stay at home", but they got on the distancing early compared to the number of cases. Today we had fewer new cases, so I don't expect a full stay at home here as we're doing OK.

But then you have Florida, which had to go from spring break mentality to lockdown b/c they didn't really try with just heavy distancing and basic closings.

I do think Trump needed to step in with Florida 2 weeks ago, at least a week ago. When they let spring breakers down there I knew they were not getting with the program.

The group that's doing modeling that the feds are using to fashion their crisis response (and produced the chart posted above) has a great website where you can see their projections on positives/deaths/hospitalized/ICU/ventilator by date and by state:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Here's what they have for Kentucky for hospital resource use:

Attachment 9292

Attachment 9295

Projections on Kentucky deaths/day:

Attachment 9293

Total Kentucky deaths through 8/4:

Attachment 9294

Awesome info BEvans. neat site.

Showing that Kentucky will be comfortable on beds and ICU spaces on current curve, by a comfortable margin in fact. That's great news. Peak deaths mid-may.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Awesome info BEvans. neat site.

Showing that Kentucky will be comfortable on beds and ICU spaces on current curve, by a comfortable margin in fact. That's great news. Peak deaths mid-may.

---

Just read an article on a company called BLOX based here in Birmingham (Bessemer). They have developed Mobile ICUs. They expect to produce 10,000 this year to help meet a shortage of 50,000 that has been identified. These units can be deployed and set up on site in 3 days. Imagine if we could have those in Central Park right next to Samaritan's Purse's Tents.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MickintheHam

Just read an article on a company called BLOX based here in Birmingham (Bessemer). They have developed Mobile ICUs. They expect to produce 10,000 this year to help meet a shortage of 50,000 that has been identified. These units can be deployed and set up on site in 3 days. Imagine if we could have those in Central Park right next to Samaritan's Purse's Tents.

---

I don't buy into the bleakest projections that are months out b/c I have faith in America's ability to find solutions.

one of the biggest failings of left wing economics is that it holds variables constant and then projects based on a static world. But the world isn't static, and it's stunning what can be accomplished when the demand is big enough.

Necessity is the mother of invention, and it will drive all kinds of solutions, adaptations, substitutions and retooling to meet our needs. It won't come tomorrow and won't be as soon as we may want, but it will happen and it will mitigate much of the longer term damage.

Which is why puma and others are right that the key is to slow the transmission rate down until we can gear up and change the variables.

In the next 30 days we'll see death rates become alarming, but we'll also be ramping up significant production of needed supplies and finding better treatments.

We're just holding on in the fort until the cavalry arrives.

Here is an article on the MICU technology.

https://www.marketplace.org/shows/ma...QJJ_hHlSLDONaE

I can’t remember which thread I posted the blood pressure meds stuff but thought I would mention....my MD switched me to amlodopine, a calcium channel blocker. From the Lancet:

We suggest that patients with cardiac diseases, hypertension, or diabetes, who are treated with ACE2-increasing drugs, are at higher risk for severe COVID-19 infection and, therefore, should be monitored for ACE2-modulating medications, such as ACE inhibitors or ARBs. Based on a PubMed search on Feb 28, 2020, we did not find any evidence to suggest that antihypertensive calcium channel blockers increased ACE2 expression or activity, therefore these could be a suitable alternative treatment in these patients.