Presidential Prediction...Our own Crystal Ball

The polls are way too often wrong for anyone to have faith in them. Swing state polls were off by as much as 6 points in 2016, and if anything they are going to be prone to be off by more in 2020.

A margin of error of 3.5% means their actual numbers are likely within a 7 point range, and that assumes they are using accurate polling models. That just isn’t a high degree of accuracy

I’m not seeing any enthusiasm for Biden, far less than the enthusiasm for Hillary in 2016. Enthusiasm wins elections because it turns out voters.

Minority numbers for Trump are way up, especially in the swing states.

A recent Gallup poll indicated that 56% of the people said they are better off than they were four years ago. This has always been an election predictor.

A 52% presidential approval rating is a good indicator of how people feel.

When asked who their neighbors are voting for or who will win your state Trump is ahead of Biden. That is not indicative of a big Biden win.

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Originally Posted by KeithKSR

The polls are way too often wrong for anyone to have faith in them. Swing state polls were off by as much as 6 points in 2016, and if anything they are going to be prone to be off by more in 2020.

A margin of error of 3.5% means their actual numbers are likely within a 7 point range, and that assumes they are using accurate polling models. That just isn’t a high degree of accuracy

I’m not seeing any enthusiasm for Biden, far less than the enthusiasm for Hillary in 2016. Enthusiasm wins elections because it turns out voters.

Minority numbers for Trump are way up, especially in the swing states.

A recent Gallup poll indicated that 56% of the people said they are better off than they were four years ago. This has always been an election predictor.

A 52% presidential approval rating is a good indicator of how people feel.

When asked who their neighbors are voting for or who will win your state Trump is ahead of Biden. That is not indicative of a big Biden win.

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Well, we will know tomorrow. I disagree with you of course but if I were a Trump supporter I would focus on some of those same things for hope.

This is interesting. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El1JY73X0AYmBO1.jpg

**Final Prediction**

Back in February/March, I picked Biden to beat Trump in a very close race. I am still picking him to win but want to give a bit more detail as I've had fun trying to crunch numbers the last several weeks.
The thing about this race is that it will likely be much closer than it will appear in the final tally. The same way Trump won by a decent electoral college margin but barely won.

My confidence falls somewhere like this:
90% sure Biden wins.
10% possibility Trump pulls another shocker (statistically, it would be a much bigger upset this time around even though it doesn't feel that way)
Out of my 90% sure Biden wins, I am 70% sure he wins by my prediction below. I do think there is a 20% chance or so that he wins very big. By very big, I mean he wins a couple of states we don't think he will. It wouldn't stun me to see him win Texas and Ohio even. Surprise? Yes. But not shock.

My Presidential Prediction: Biden wins 51-47

Biden 305 / Trump 233 in the electoral college.

To get there, I think Biden wins Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina (in order of largest win to smallest). The best part of this, is that he wins NC and therefore we know where its going tomorrow night.

I think Trump barely wins Florida and Georgia. These are the two states I fretted over the most. Its VERY close there and Biden could easily win). He wins Texas and Ohio by 3 and 2 points.

My Senate Prediction: I think Dems win the Senate 51-49. I think they flip AZ, Maine, Colorado and NC. I think they lose Alabama. I think Reps hang on in Iowa barely and Dems hang on in Michigan.

My House Prediction: I think the Dems gain seats. Something like 240-195 when its said and done.

Will I be wrong? Usually am. But, based on as many stats as I can see, these are where I think its headed. I've enjoyed chatting with you guys on this thread.

P.S. Thanks for those that banked your picks. I will likely start or post on a Live Thread tomorrow as results come in. I have a few counties I am looking at very closely that we will know very early on that I think will tell us a lot of where the rest of the night is going.

P.S.S. I'm feeling better about this prediction since Trump is melting down on twitter tonight.

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Originally Posted by KeithKSR

This is interesting. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El1JY73X0AYmBO1.jpg

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Ha. Everyone is scarred from 2016. Btw, this map is EXACTLY the reason I think Biden wins. Dems are scared. They will stop at nothing to get out to vote because they know Trump could win even though numbers say he shouldn't. I think its one of the many reasons you are seeing a huge turnout and its a big reason so many have voted early.
I really think the combo of the surprise of 2016 and Trump doing the whole "mail in is fraud" thing (not to mention no Dems trusting USPS right now) is going to propel Biden and will backfire and Trump as it got people to vote early.

And one final repeat:

The absolute WORST thing that could happen to our country is not Biden or Trump winning. The worst thing that could happen is that this race is super close and lawyers, courts, etc get involved. Or there is tons of threats, rumors or accusations of cheating etc. Or that there IS cheating.

We need a clear election result like never before. If we don't have one, 2020 will make 2000 look like a walk in the park. It would tear this nation apart.

My personal prediction on how it will turn out:

Attachment 9771

But if you look back in this thread you'll also see that I was the guy gaming out how the GOP will deal with Sanders as the Democratic candidate, so that's how much I know.

Best to everybody (and our country), and as I heard Chris Stirewalt say on a recent podcast, if you don't like the results of this election, just hang in there, there'll be another one in 2 years.

Biden and landslidey margins.

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

My personal prediction on how it will turn out:

Attachment 9771

But if you look back in this thread you'll also see that I was the guy gaming out how the GOP will deal with Sanders as the Democratic candidate, so that's how much I know.

Best to everybody (and our country), and as I heard Chris Stirewalt say on a recent podcast, if you don't like the results of this election, just hang in there, there'll be another one in 2 years.

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Almost exactly as mine except I think Nevada goes Biden.

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Originally Posted by bigsky

Biden and landslidey margins.

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I know he won't win there but the polls in Montana started getting much tighter these last few weeks for Biden. It was an interesting and too little discussed movement.

I think Trump wins. Polls have pretty much gotten every major election in the western world wrong the last several years.

I just want to know if everyone will still be my friend tomorrow? :)

I think Biden wins, but I'm voting for Trump.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Almost exactly as mine except I think Nevada goes Biden.

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I think Nevada is Blue too, but I think NC will be a Trump state.

Pennsylvania will be known days later.

Think I am reserved to the notion that Biden win and all we can hope for is he doesn’t screw too much up in his 4 years.

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Originally Posted by KentuckyWildcat

I just want to know if everyone will still be my friend tomorrow? :)

I think Biden wins, but I'm voting for Trump.

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Ha. I will!

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Originally Posted by KeithKSR

I think Trump wins. Polls have pretty much gotten every major election in the western world wrong the last several years.

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He might. Keith, as you know...I just love numbers. So if the polls are way off this year, my head might explode. Haha

I think Biden wins. I seriously hope that the republicans retain the senate. I believe that governing from the middle works best in our country. If that can't happen, a stalemate is fine with me.

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Originally Posted by catmanjack

Think I am reserved to the notion that Biden win and all we can hope for is he doesn’t screw too much up in his 4 years.

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Biden is not the problem; the American hating liberals will do irreparable harm to this nation and that is absolutely their goal.

Darryl

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

He might. Keith, as you know...I just love numbers. So if the polls are way off this year, my head might explode. Haha

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They have had a very bad track record over the last half dozen years and have consistently missed by overestimating to the left.

Brexit, twice, Boris Johnson, Trump, and Scott Morrison in Australia are just a few of the examples. The list goes on and on.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

I know he won't win there but the polls in Montana started getting much tighter these last few weeks for Biden. It was an interesting and too little discussed movement.

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Montana is solid for Trump.

Now that Kentucky held serve in the senate I am hoping my state can do the same.

Go get'um Treasure State.

This is far more insightful, entertaining and educational that watching people fight on social media. Thank you all!

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Originally Posted by Jeeepcat

This is far more insightful, entertaining and educational that watching people fight on social media. Thank you all!

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do you know how to block people?

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Originally Posted by Doc

do you know how to block people?

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Yes but that's a lot of people 🤣

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Originally Posted by KeithKSR

They have had a very bad track record over the last half dozen years and have consistently missed by overestimating to the left.

Brexit, twice, Boris Johnson, Trump, and Scott Morrison in Australia are just a few of the examples. The list goes on and on.

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They overestimated to the right in 2008 and 2018.

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Originally Posted by bigsky

Montana is solid for Trump.

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Yes. My point was that the closing of the polls give the Senate seat flip a chance.

Senator Daines, R is a close friend and former next door neighbor. State is going all red and I hope that is enough to pull
My friend thru over s popular governor opponent.

Is it safe to say the Biden landslide will not come to fruition?

Darryl

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Originally Posted by Darryl

Is it safe to say the Biden landslide will not come to fruition?

Darryl

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Safe to say—altho...

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Originally Posted by Darryl

Is it safe to say the Biden landslide will not come to fruition?

Darryl

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Yep. Not what I predicted, but yes, its safe to say.