Coronavirus

FWIW, as of today the US has 3 deaths/million population, which is 18th in the world. Total cases is 199/million, which is 35th in the world.

I wish there was some way to have a critical cases/total number of respirators statistic to track capacity. Not sure if that's available anywhere.

At the current rate of doubling (every 3-4 days) we're going to go over 1 million cases in the US in about 2 weeks, give or take. At the same time we will hopefully start to see in the next few days if the distancing measures are having any effect.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

By point of comparison the first San Francisco case was March 5th versus 1st for NY. they had a stay at home order on the 16th, about the same time as New York was shutting down.

BUT, they only had 40 cases. NY had 90 at that point. Much bigger city, but the point still stands IMO.

At every trigger point New York has waited longer than other cities and states to shut down. They've done it about the same time as others but they started several days sooner.

BTW, some of that isn't their fault. The truth is states like Kentucky have been piggybacking on them. They take an action and other states and cities go "OK we need to do that too". It's just that New York is further along the curve so they are getting hammered, and other parts of the US are benefitting from acting when they act b/c their numbers are better.

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The chart I’ve been posting shows this really well.
In an American sense, New York was one of the first to take this seriously. They shut down just after California did (on the same day).
The problem is they had thousands of more cases already at that point.
And as has been posted several times, they are just primed for this because of their density, travel and the way NY’ers live.

I’m so thankful for our Governor in California because he shut down before most people thought necessary. And he was the first to do it. That takes guts. Other states followed (including NY). It’s going to get worse here and there will be some really hard hit areas but we were on basically the same timeline as NY and his quick actions bought some time.
This is why I’m so nervous about Florida and Louisiana in particular. They have been slow to shut down and they have areas with high density and lots of travel. Florida especially. And a lot of New Yorkers left NY as it was being shut down to head to Florida for a while.

It also scares me watching some of these pundits on Fox News talk about how this is only a blue state problem. That is just plain stupid. This will hit big states first. But it will make it to the small states. Guaranteed. It doesn’t care who you vote for.

An update to the chart:
https://twitter.com/nathan510edge/st...027386368?s=21

It’s booming here. The majority of highly concentrated cases are in West Palm/Broward/Miami-Dade counties, but its widespread all over the state. Public beaches are closed, but private ones are full per local news reports this morning.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

The chart I’ve been posting shows this really well.
In an American sense, New York was one of the first to take this seriously. They shut down just after California did (on the same day).
The problem is they had thousands of more cases already at that point.
And as has been posted several times, they are just primed for this because of their density, travel and the way NY’ers live.

I’m so thankful for our Governor in California because he shut down before most people thought necessary. And he was the first to do it. That takes guts. Other states followed (including NY). It’s going to get worse here and there will be some really hard hit areas but we were on basically the same timeline as NY and his quick actions bought some time.
This is why I’m so nervous about Florida and Louisiana in particular. They have been slow to shut down and they have areas with high density and lots of travel. Florida especially. And a lot of New Yorkers left NY as it was being shut down to head to Florida for a while.

It also scares me watching some of these pundits on Fox News talk about how this is only a blue state problem. That is just plain stupid. This will hit big states first. But it will make it to the small states. Guaranteed. It doesn’t care who you vote for.

An update to the chart:
https://twitter.com/nathan510edge/st...027386368?s=21

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Originally Posted by Catonahottinroof

It’s booming here. The majority of highly concentrated cases are in West Palm/Broward/Miami-Dade counties, but its widespread all over the state. Public beaches are closed, but private ones are full per local news reports this morning.

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Ya, I'm sorry to hear. I really wish we would just do a National shutdown for 30 days. Everywhere. Obviously except for essential jobs/personnel.
I've seen several models that show how successful that would be at flattening the curve.
I completely understand the economy effect of this but I just argue its going to get worse if we don't drop a hammer on this now. We will save thousands and thousands of life if we can delay this thing to prepare our hospitals.

Reading this report on Iran and the virus, it struck me that there is a similarity between Nancy and leaders in Iran

Earlier this month, as coronavirus took hold nationwide, the U.S. also offered an olive branch of assistance, which was staunchly rejected by the Iran's leaders, who have instead demanded that economic sanctions be lifted so they can adequately fight the virus. Tehran has since ignited the ire of the U.S. State Department by perpetuating false narratives through its state-run media that the novel pathogen was planted by the United States and the fault of America’s hardline approach against them.

“U.S. sanctions do not target imports of food, medicine and medical equipment, or other humanitarian goods. Iranian documents show their health companies have been able to import testing kits without obstacle from U.S. sanctions since January,” State Department spokesperson, Morgan Ortagus, tweeted Monday.

If only it weren't a Republican House member holding this whole thing up.

Btw, we have been hearing for over a month now about how we are going to run short on ventilators and people are going to die from it. All we had to do was learn from Italy.
These are not produced overnight. They will take months. It won't help in NY this go around but it will save lives in other places.

But after the President announced in a news conference on March 21st that GM and Ford were already making new ones (they are not even close) he is now attacking them on twitter and demanding GM use a factory to make them that they don't even own anymore.

Time to listen to Cuomo and enact the Defense Production Act to get these needed supplies made?

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

If only it weren't a Republican House member holding this whole thing up.

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He's a nut. Complete nut. He won't be re-elected. Trump has called for him to be kicked out of the party, and the state GOP will primary him no doubt.

Anyway, he hasn't held it up yet. McCarthy says he has a plan. Not sure what they're planning, but the current debate today was already being observed. So he hasn't wrenched it yet, maybe there's a way to keep him from doing it.

Oh, and Florida is toast. They weren't slow to shut down, they positively spurned it.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

He's a nut. Complete nut. He won't be re-elected. Trump has called for him to be kicked out of the party, and the state GOP will primary him no doubt.

Anyway, he hasn't held it up yet. McCarthy says he has a plan. Not sure what they're planning, but the current debate today was already being observed. So he hasn't wrenched it yet, maybe there's a way to keep him from doing it.

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Good. I hope so. Because the thing that scares me most is not that one guy. Its that him holding it up gives others time to change their mind. No one on either side is happy with this bill. That's how deals work. They need to vote now, move on and not like it later.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Oh, and Florida is toast. They weren't slow to shut down, they positively spurned it.

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Yep. That is what scares me.

As I posted before, I really really believe that there needs to be a nationwide shut down. And I really believe that is the best thing for the economy. Give it 30-45 days. It worked in China. It will work in Italy.
If we don't, this thing is going to keep spiking every few months and the economy is going to be on a severe roller coaster.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

Oh, and Florida is toast. They weren't slow to shut down, they positively spurned it.

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Yep and with the high numbers of elderly it will likely be pretty nasty.

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Originally Posted by PedroDaGr8

Yep and with the high numbers of elderly it will likely be pretty nasty.

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Same scares me about Mexico as well. Their President is talking like ours did early on. He's in denial. And with some of those areas so impacted with density and so many elderly I am really afraid how many will die there. And their health care system is so poor.
I love that country and their people and it breaks my heart what I think we are going to see in the next couple of months there.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Good. I hope so. Because the thing that scares me most is not that one guy. Its that him holding it up gives others time to change their mind. No one on either side is happy with this bill. That's how deals work. They need to vote now, move on and not like it later.

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Bill passed. Well done to all 4 leaders. On to Trump.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Bill passed. Well done to all 4 leaders. On to Trump.

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Bill has been signed.

Attachment 9271

And on the lighter side:

Attachment 9272

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

And on the lighter side:

Attachment 9272

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Haha. Isn't that the truth.

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Originally Posted by bigsky

‪“Have you bought masks?” Seems to me to be the measure of how seriously a person is taking this pandemic. I have not. Well, except for those I wrapped around bottles of beer for a picture on Instagram...‬

On the stock market side it seems to be virus plus (virus=Bernie).

On the political side, what a bunch of clowns they all are.

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I have quite a few from emergency backpacks discarded from work. I do wish I had kept my hazmat mask from my OMB days

My mom and stepdad are sick. So I am taking this seriously

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Originally Posted by UKHistory

I have quite a few from emergency backpacks discarded from work. I do wish I had kept my hazmat mask from my OMB days

My mom and stepdad are sick. So I am taking this seriously

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God bless you all.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

If only it weren't a Republican House member holding this whole thing up.

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Massie, the idiot, just threatened to derail it while Nancy and company actually held up the bank and delayed the process a few days.

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Originally Posted by ukpumacat

Bill passed. Well done to all 4 leaders. On to Trump.

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From what I can tell they basically just ignored House rules on two motions, verballed over him and moved on. Right call.

Technically he's right. The House must have a quorum to conduct business, but we've never faced a threat where the actual meeting of Congress is a threat to the Congress and the nation.

IMO the Congress should have been sequestered at the GReenbriar in that well known bunker they built, away from family and everyone else, 2 weeks ago.

But bringing them back to DC like this was a big risk, and this was the right move.

And that guy is political toast. I need to see what the GOP can do to get another candidate on the ballot by November, but I'm betting they do it if they can.

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Originally Posted by dan_bgblue

Massie, the idiot, just threatened to derail it while Nancy and company actually held up the bank and delayed the process a few days.

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Massie is one nutjob. He's not the leadership. The Democrat's holdup for unrelated spending was intentional and supported by the leaders. Huge difference.

And I recall being questioned about whether it was even true Pelosi was gumming things up on Sunday, and of course it's clear now from her own words that's exactly what happened.

So we have loads of pork even in THIS bill. Beyond some very odd things like giving people raises to get on unemployment, which is at least a debate about stimulus, I'm really sleeping better at night knowing the Kennedy center is going to be OK.

Cuomo wants more money. Trump should tweet to go ask the NEA for it. lol

Massie is a kook. Both sides have some, like Maxine Waters.

In just reading a story on it there may have in fact been a quorum, but i'm not clear on that. The Speaker announced there was one just before the vote, but I have to wonder if that wasn't just an agreement by both parties to count the way people count sporting event attendance.

Obviously they'll never officially say there wasn't one, so the world may never know. Like Tootsie Pops.

Chuck, I know you mentioned the effect the situation is having on your company and employees. I hope this part of the Cares act is something that benefits you and them. The initial 10 grand is in essence a grant even if you do not take a loan. And does not have to be repaid if workers retain their jobs.

Emergency Economic Injury Grants

Includes $10 billion in funding to provide an advance of $10,000 to small businesses and nonprofits that apply for an SBA economic injury disaster loan (EIDL) within three days of applying for the loan.

Expands eligibility for access to EIDL’s to include Tribal businesses, cooperatives, and ESOPs with fewer than 500 employees or any individual operating as a sole proprietor or an independent contractor during the covered period (January 31, 2020 to December 31, 2020). Private non-profits are also eligible for both grants and EIDLs.

EIDLs are loans of up to $2 million that carry interest rates up to 3.75% for companies and up to 2.75%for nonprofits, as well as principal and interest deferment for up to 4 years. The loans may be used for expenses that could have been met had the disaster not occurred, including payroll and other operating expenses.

The EIDL grant does not need to be repaid, even if the grantee is subsequently denied an EIDL. It may be used to provide paid sick leave to employees, maintain payroll, meet increased production costs due to supply chain disruptions, or pay business obligations, including debts, rent and mortgage payments. Eligible grant recipients must have been in operation on January 31, 2020. The grant is available to small businesses, private nonprofits, sole proprietors and independent contractors, tribal businesses, as well as cooperatives and employee-owned businesses.

A business that receives an EIDL between January 31, 2020 and June 30, 2020, as a result of a COVID-19 disaster declaration, is eligible to apply for a PPP loan, or the business may refinance their EIDL into a PPP loan. In either case, the emergency EIDL grant award of up to $10,000 would be subtracted from the amount forgiven in the payroll protection plan.

The bill provides $562 million to ensure that SBA has the resources to provide Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) to businesses that need financial support.

I just got something claiming that Ibuprophen (advil) is a catalyst for coronavirus. Those who took it got exponentially sicker. Those who took acetominophen (tylenol) for relief when they started feeling ill did well. Might be an urban legend

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Originally Posted by Doc

I just got something claiming that Ibuprophen (advil) is a catalyst for coronavirus. Those who took it got exponentially sicker. Those who took acetominophen (tylenol) for relief when they startsd feeling ill did well. Might be an urban legend

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The wife has read several things today saying the same. I saw an article stating they are looking into it...which means oops!, there goes the alternating pain reliever suggestion.

On the other hand I would think that, if true, that would be a breakthrough for virus researchers

As for the bill, personally I with all the money had gone to business and corporations, including big ones. IMO it would be better to keep the nonworking employees on the payroll of their employers with gov't loans or aid rather than the distribution method in the bill. Biggest issue will be once this crisis ends all those have to find jobs. I am using this to dump poor employees that I did not have the opportunity before. I dont think I am unique either. Keeping employees paid. thru business allows the gov't to collect payroll taxes. Condition any loans or grants to be used 100% for payroll ( no stock buybacks, executive bonuses, expansion, etc) which is easy to track since that is filed anyway.

It should have contianed nothing else. No pet projects, no kickbacks, no pork.....but that is asking too much from the parasites in Washington

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Originally Posted by kingcat

The wife has read several things today saying the same. I saw an article stating they are looking into it...which means oops!, there goes the alternating pain reliever suggestion.

On the other hand I would think that, if true, that would be a breakthrough for virus researchers

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Might be an urban lengend or a marketing strategy from the makers of tylenol, but I will keep on acetomin (excedrin migraine) which I have been taking due to a 3 day migraine

There is a substantial delay in payroll tax payments....so that it slows down your demise a bit.

Delay of payment of employer payroll taxes

The provision allows employers and self-employed individuals to defer payment of the employer share of the Social Security tax they otherwise are responsible for paying to the federal government with respect to their employees. Employers generally are responsible for paying a 6.2-percent Social Security tax on employee wages. The provision requires that the deferred employment tax be paid over the following two years, with half of the amount required to be paid by December 31, 2021, and the other half by December 31, 2022. The Social Security Trust Funds will be held harmless under this provision.

The main point is not the taxes. The main benefit is keeping people EMPLOYED over welfare/unemployment

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Originally Posted by Doc

I just got something claiming that Ibuprophen (advil) is a catalyst for coronavirus. Those who took it got exponentially sicker. Those who took acetominophen (tylenol) for relief when they started feeling ill did well. Might be an urban legend

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I’ve had three people send that to me today and I haven’t taken anything but Tylenol in years. I’ve seen reports that it’s all the NSAID’s—Advil, Motrin, Aleve, even aspirin. But I’ve also seen it lumped under Coronavirus disinformation. Still, probably best to play it safe for now.

Quick testing (5-13 minutes) in volume is on the way, starting next week:

Attachment 9274

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...96001958981632

OK, this is my first time trying to read a medical paper, but they just published a report on the first 775 British patients critically ill with Covid 19. The last table:

Attachment 9275

So if you're a young hefty female who requires no assistance with daily activities and no comorbidites, looks like you've got a great shot. (Probably doesn't describe too many of us here.)

The whole thing can be found here:

https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-...-With-Covid-19

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

Quick testing (5-13 minutes) in volume is on the way, starting next week:

Attachment 9274

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...96001958981632

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Evil big pharma likely making a shitload of $$$ on this! Profitting on the suffering of people

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

Quick testing (5-13 minutes) in volume is on the way, starting next week:

Attachment 9274

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/...96001958981632

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I would think potentially huge in being able to really get data mapping going on what we're up against, and isolate people as needed very quickly, while NOT isolating those who don't need it.

Could be the key to better targeting of who is "stay at home" and who can "go about their lives".

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Originally Posted by Doc

The main point is not the taxes. The main benefit is keeping people EMPLOYED over welfare/unemployment

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And there's the rub.

Kingcat -- I've been working on those parts of the bill for some days, and just got releases from Barr's office I will read tomorrow.

There are catches to it though that make it tough to use versus Doc's point.

Here's what it comes down to: the way this bill is structured it's better to NOT take the SBA money and just lay off everyone. That's how the math works out for this due to the massive unemployment supplements versus how much is allocated to small business.

I'm about 80% sure on that right now, hope to be 100% but Monday/Tuesday so we can plan the next couple of weeks.

But while this was a necessary bill, it's badly structured by people who largely don't know a thing about incentive based economics. They want to help people, but with no regard to the incentives they create.

If you give everyone who gets laid off a RAISE, you're going to get a lot of layoffs, even with the SBA money.

In fact, you can bring people back for so many hours and they still get their unemployment, and I think 100% of their $600 weekly Federal money, and only get an adjustment in their state money.

So employers who are slack but not shut down can lay everyone off, use them hourly with it only lowering their state payment, and the employees end up with MORE money per week than they have staying on full time. The employees are happy, the employer slashes payroll and still can operate at the slack capacity. There's no reason to keep them on with this structure.

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Originally Posted by CitizenBBN

And there's the rub.

Kingcat -- I've been working on those parts of the bill for some days, and just got releases from Barr's office I will read tomorrow.

There are catches to it though that make it tough to use versus Doc's point.

Here's what it comes down to: the way this bill is structured it's better to NOT take the SBA money and just lay off everyone. That's how the math works out for this due to the massive unemployment supplements versus how much is allocated to small business.

I'm about 80% sure on that right now, hope to be 100% but Monday/Tuesday so we can plan the next couple of weeks.

But while this was a necessary bill, it's badly structured by people who largely don't know a thing about incentive based economics. They want to help people, but with no regard to the incentives they create.

If you give everyone who gets laid off a RAISE, you're going to get a lot of layoffs, even with the SBA money.

In fact, you can bring people back for so many hours and they still get their unemployment, and I think 100% of their $600 weekly Federal money, and only get an adjustment in their state money.

So employers who are slack but not shut down can lay everyone off, use them hourly with it only lowering their state payment, and the employees end up with MORE money per week than they have staying on full time. The employees are happy, the employer slashes payroll and still can operate at the slack capacity. There's no reason to keep them on with this structure.

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I hope it benefits you and others in some way.

This guy here is double-tough. When they start doing the plasma treatment with survivors' plasma, I want his:
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Meanwhile, a 101-year-old man was released from hospital after recovering from the coronavirus, Gloria Lisi, the deputy mayor of the Italian city of Rimini, has said.

The man, who has been named only as "Mr. P," was admitted to hospital in Rimini, northeast Italy, last week after testing positive for Covid-19 and left the hospital on Thursday.

Lisi said his "truly extraordinary" recovery gave "hope for the future."

"Mr. P made it. The family brought him home yesterday evening. To teach us that even at 101 years the future is not written," she said.

Mr. P was born in 1919, during the Spanish flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 30 million and 50 million people worldwide.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/europ...ntl/index.html

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Originally Posted by KSRBEvans

This guy here is double-tough. When they start doing the plasma treatment with survivors' plasma, I want his:
________________________

Meanwhile, a 101-year-old man was released from hospital after recovering from the coronavirus, Gloria Lisi, the deputy mayor of the Italian city of Rimini, has said.

The man, who has been named only as "Mr. P," was admitted to hospital in Rimini, northeast Italy, last week after testing positive for Covid-19 and left the hospital on Thursday.

Lisi said his "truly extraordinary" recovery gave "hope for the future."

"Mr. P made it. The family brought him home yesterday evening. To teach us that even at 101 years the future is not written," she said.

Mr. P was born in 1919, during the Spanish flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 30 million and 50 million people worldwide.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/europ...ntl/index.html

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His great great grand son was tough too. (Mr P fathered Mr Q who fathered Mr R who fathered Mr S who was Mr T's father). Don't " Pity da fool"!