Some forecasters have Trump winning several of Midwest states.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsky
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Some forecasters have Trump winning several of Midwest states.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsky
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ZP1CqS0EtvQnug
Here is RCP Electoral map. Biden has a lock on 216 Electoral Votes. Trump has a lock on 125. There are 197 Electoral votes in battle ground states. Here are the states, the Electoral votes and the RCP poll numbers. The present national RCP average has Biden up 7.4%. Four years ago it had Clinton up 2.9%. Almost exactly the final result.
Wisconsin (10) Biden + 6.4%
Minnesota (10) Biden + 4.7%
North Carolina (15) Biden + 0.6%
Florida (29) Biden + 1.2%
Georgia (16) Biden + 0.4%
Pennsylvania (20) Biden + 3.6%
Ohio (18) Tie
Michigan (16) Biden + 6.5%
Iowa (6) Biden + 1.0%
AZ (11) Tie
Nevada (6) Biden + 4.0%
Texas (38) Trump + 2.3%
The remaining two Electoral votes are Nebraska CD 2 and Maine CD 2. One vote each.
They were pulled. What you said above happened some in Florida. But in Wisconsin, he pulled many of his ads in early October.Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithKSR
Yep.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsky
Here are the last 4 National Elections. The Final RCP averages and the election result:Quote:
Originally Posted by bigsky
2004: Bush +2.6 (Bush +2.4)
2008: Obama +6.5 (Obama +7.3)
2012: Obama +0.1 (Obama +3.9)
2016: Clinton +1.6 (Clinton +2.1)
2020: Biden +7.4 ( )
As you can see, the national polls tend to be VERY very good. Could that change this year? Yes. But I wouldn't bet on it. Btw, I have heard the magic number is 5. Meaning, if Biden wins nationally by 5 points it is statistically impossible for Trump to win the electoral college (meaning not enough pad votes in California, New York etc to make up for the difference). I saw an analysis of it somewhere and if I can find it I will post it. But its something like if Biden wins by 1-2, its like 60/40 Trump wins. If Biden wins by 3, its 70-30 he wins. If he wins by 4 its like 90-10. And if he wins by 5 its 99%.
Don't quote me on those but its something like that. Just another thing to watch on election night.
Here is an awesome link to an article that has every single state, what time their polls close and when we will know the results from that state (when they count early vote, etc.).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
But its something like if Biden wins by 1-2, its like 60/40 Trump wins. If Biden wins by 3, its 70-30 he wins. If he wins by 4 its like 90-10. And if he wins by 5 its 99%.
Don't quote me on those but its something like that. Just another thing to watch on election night.
I’m pretty sure that was Nate Silver.
Very likely...just can't remember if it was a tweet or on 538 or what. But, those numbers aren't far off that I posted above.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
If you want to nerd out with some early voting data by state, here you go:
https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html
Thanks. You know I love to nerd out. HaQuote:
Originally Posted by KSRBEvans
Lots of final polls coming in this week. A few more over the weekend and a couple on Monday and the pollsters are done.
Bottom line is this race has been incredibly steady for months now.
Nationally, Biden has a roughly 8 point lead. Some solid pollsters have him as low as 5, some as high as 11.
Some of the battlegrounds are of course closer. He has a roughly 5 point lead in Pennsylvania just out of the margin of error. The other states he must win he is up in the 7-9 range.
All of this tells us this: Either Biden will win fairly handily. Or the pollsters are just dead wrong (far more wrong than in any election ever) and Trump pulls a stunner.
Most projections now have him with around a 80% chance to win. Trump’s chances are roughly the same odds as needed a 6 in dice and rolling it the first time. It’s possible but unlikely.
The Senate is much much closer. Right around 60% chance for the Dems to take it. So, we shall see.
I will make a more specific prediction on Monday as far as electoral number, Senate seats etc.
Not because anyone cares, but as I said above...I’m a nerd and it’s fun to read the data.
A new Iowa poll dropped tonight that was very good for Trump.
Had him +7. Most other polls have it a dead heat. But this is a very respectable pollster. Just FYI.
If Biden wins, these tab numbers will be why. From a campaign perspective, you can see that Trump's Hunter stuff simply didn't work. 56% found Trump corrupt to Biden's 40%. Tough to convince people that you are "draining the swamp" when they think you are the swamp (and too close to extremists).
Attachment 9767
The ISIS look alikes terrorizing the Biden bus aren’t helping their cause any.
Ps. FBI now investigating this. And no, it doesn’t help one bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
All of Trumps talk of Law and Order and he retweeted the video of it and said he “loved Texas”. Not gonna play well with the suburban moms he’s trying to catch up with.
Btw, the issue at this point isn’t even Trump. Statistically speaking, he is likely to lose.
The issue is controlling the Senate. The Republicans have a decent shot at keeping control.
That’s who this stuff hurts the most.
All just like Ben Sasse predicted. Trump may not just lose, he might take down the Senate with him.
Just a slew of new polls today. Too many to post about, but if you are interested I would recommend you check them out on realclearpolitics or 538. Tons and tons of great state polling coming in (from some of the best pollsters out there).
Bottom line, if the state polls are just as wrong as they were in 2016 (in Trump's favor), he will still lose by a decent margin electorally. It would take a polling error of colossal proportions for Trump to win. Its possible...but increasingly unlikely.
If they are right, Biden will win easily.
If they are off in Biden's direction (which statistically speaking is just as likely), Biden will win by what would be a modern day landslide.
The polls were actually correct in 2016, they just figured the electoral college wrong. And they always err in favor of the Republican despite what Trump says—sometimes by just a little, sometimes by a lot—making the hopes of a bunch of underrepresented Republicans look like wishful thinking. I think Trump knows he is going to lose and is just trying to muster the troops.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like pretty good bets for Biden. If either Arizona or Florida goes Democrat that’ll put Biden over the top and they don’t really need Florida if they get all of the other three.
I've done all I can do by voting.
Now it's up to the American people and allowing our system to work as it always has in deciding. A great time to be an American!
The National polls were correct in 2016...some of the state polls were off, especially Wisconsin. They say that has been corrected so we will see. But as I said, its just as likely Biden is benefitted with any polling error as Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
And Biden does not need Arizona or Florida to win. He gets to 270 as long as he wins Pennsylvania.
Dang.
https://t.co/CtSIOuhfrG
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rnc...o-election-dayQuote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Wisconsin ads are part of the $25 million ad buy, the last paragraph lists the states.
I kind of disagree if voting a socialist government happens that is not a great time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
Quote:
Originally Posted by catmanjack
I wont comment other than to say, I've heard about the same boogy man all my life. I've even quoted the same verbatim when I once voted republican.
Personally, and after many years studying it, I know it's a lie meant to tear down democratic forms of government by scaring common folk and in appeasing corporate entities. And it is an old republican battle cry which is as old the hills.
Anything below sound familiar?
On Medicare..
“Having given our pensioners their medical care in kind, why not food baskets, why not public housing accommodations, why not vacation resorts, why not a ration of cigarettes for those who smoke and of beer for those who drink?”
..Senator Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz)
Senator Carl Curtis (R-Neb.) — elected in 1936 on an anti-New Deal platform “[I]t is not needed. It is socialism. It moves the country in a direction which is not good for anyone, whether they be young or old. It charts a course from which there will be no turning back… It is not only socialism – it is brazen socialism.” He later stated, “the insurance industry has a remarkable record,” and added that Medicare “is not public welfare. It is not charity. It is not kindness. It is socialism. Socialism is not the answer to anything.”
..Senator Carl Curtis (R-Neb.) — elected in 1936 on an anti-New Deal platform
Now there are some real issues where republicans have a fair argument with democrats and visa versa. Our ability to compromise and reach across the proverbial isle as citizens to find common ground for the common good is exactly what has set this country apart from all other such endeavors through the centuries. That's what Senator McCain, George Bush, and many others have tried to get across to those who consider themselves conservative. But many have begun to accept radical views meant to divide and destroy our country because social media and radical blogs posing as news outlets have polluted all such discourse on both sides. Each political party has an equal problem, and until we get a handle on such hate and vitriol against our own people..we will each (including some of us here) continue to be exactly what is endangering our great country.
And when our children's, children look back on it, we ourselves will be on the wrong side of history.
Dems aren't any better when it comes to demonizing republicans. But we do not need to go about proving each other correct.
:sHa_clap2:Quote:
Originally Posted by kingcat
When it’s between corporate socialism and individual socialism I’ll be in favor of the individual every time. The problem is both parties have been in corporate interests back pockets for decades. The republicans a little more but it’s both.
National polls mean very little, and the polls in battleground states are nearly all within the margin of error. I don't know who will win, but this is going to be a close election. If I were a betting man, I'd say the odds are 60/40 Trump wins.
Just a couple of quick notes...Quote:
Originally Posted by goodycat
1. National Polls do matter. Its true, battleground polls matter more, but national polls still matter because they tend to be most accurate. National and state polls have Biden winning. And every race Biden needs to win in order to get to 270 are out of the margin of error (with PA being the closest and just out of the margin of error).
2. Odds aren't a thing we have to guess. We can bet on the race. Right now, Vegas has Biden's odds right around 65/35. The largest bet ever placed on a candidate came in this morning. A 1 million dollar bet on Biden.
We will have to agree to disagree on national polls...they are, IMO, too easily manipulated. And I don't care what the actual odds are, I was giving my opinion. I am prepared for either outcome, but I do think Trump has a legitimate shot. I'm not sure you are ready for a possible Trump victory. Either way...we shall see....Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
Polls are only as accurate as the data they use. You can’t use faulty models and get an accurate result.Quote:
Originally Posted by goodycat
2. Odds aren't a thing we have to guess. We can bet on the race. Right now, Vegas has Biden's odds right around 65/35. The largest bet ever placed on a candidate came in this morning. A 1 million dollar bet on Biden.[/QUOTE]
Soros??
Darryl
Ok, Some swings occurring..
Trump will win MN, OH, WI, NC, GA, FL and PA.
Still think AZ goes Blue...
Oh, I do believe Trump has a chance. I believe the forecasts are right and that he has about a 10-20% chance. That is unlikely but not impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by goodycat
And for him to do it...its not like overcoming a huge margin. He just has to do it in a number of places. He has to overcome a decent margin in Pennsylvania (roughly 5 points on average) and then he has to sweep all of the toss ups (Texas, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Arizona). Is that doable? Yes. It wouldn't stun me. And like everyone else, 2016 lingers.
At the same time, its just as statistically possible that Biden wins in a landslide. He is likely to win PA and then he could take a clean sweep of the toss up states (just like Trump could).
Biden's "chances" are so high for two reasons:
1. He has many more paths/roads to victory than Trump. He doesn't need any of the toss-up states at all.
2. He is up in PA (and can still win without it). Trump HAS to win it (and again, as well as all the toss ups).
Here is a great article detailing how/why Trump can win...even if its a low probability.
One last thought....I will be disappointed if Trump wins (politically speaking as I am not voting for him). If he does, I certainly don't think its the end of democracy or America (as people on both sides of the aisle say every single election).
But if he does, it will really bother me from a statistical/polling standpoint. I love numbers. All types of numbers. So, it matters to me that polls are more correct than not over time. They usually are. And when they are wrong they make corrections. That matters to me a lot.
Found it! Not sure how well it will copy and paste but here you go...This is why National Polls matter imo. They have been very very steady/accurate in the past 5 elections.Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfan73
Probability of winning the Electoral College based on various popular vote outcomes, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast as of Nov. 1
POPULAR VOTE MARGIN TRUMP BIDEN 269-269 TIE
Biden +6 to +7 <1% >99% <1%
Biden +5 to +6 3 97 <1
Biden +4 to +5 10 89 2
Biden +3 to +4 30 67 3
Biden +2 to +3 57 41 2
Biden +1 to +2 75 23 2
TIE to Biden +1 89 10 1
TIE to Trump +1 98 2 <1
Trump +1 to +2 >99 <1 <1
Sorry, it is hard to read. Bottom line, a Biden +5 victory nationally gives him a 97% chance to win. 3 points seems to be about the breaking point. If Biden wins by 3, Trump is slightly favored. If Biden wins by 4, he is favored.
I have posted several times on Trafalgar and I am really really interested to see how 2020 turns out because of them. Polling averages work because there is a 3% margin of error in most polls (based on sampling size).
So, a poll having Biden +3 and another having Biden +9 could both be right if Biden wins by +6. That's how it works.
But, Trafalgar often throws averages off because they are such outliers. They famously called Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016 so they made a name for themselves. They also got the Florida Governor race correct in 2018. But, they have missed a lot of other races by a lot since....
Attachment 9768Attachment 9768
One of the outcomes of the 2020 race will not just be the Presidency, Senate, etc...it will be which pollsters people trust. If Trafalgar is right again, they will not be considered such an outlier and other pollsters will need to change even more. If, on the other hand, Trafalgar continues this more recent trend of being wrong (and always leaning Dem), they will soon lose all credibility (since they are always wrong in favor of R's). Even more so, they are now doing their polling for a GOP PAC.
If Trump wins MN, I will simply be stunned. Hillary won it in 2016 and even Trafalgar has Biden up there.Quote:
Originally Posted by VirginiaCat
Rasmussen has Biden +1 nationally, they had accurately polled Hillary +2 in 2016. At Biden +1 nationally Trump will win, because of the way California and some smaller liberal states have overwhelming majorities.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_nov02
Why? It’s a state Hillary barely won and since that time there are a lot of Dems that have come to support Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by ukpumacat
This is a reminder why looking at one poll (by anyone) doesn't work. Because, they all have margins of error. AND, more importantly, every survey can and will be off. In fact, Nate Silver says one of the best signs of a great/trusted pollster is when they have a poll that is way off with all of their other polls.Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithKSR
For instance, ABC just had a poll that had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17. There is no one who thinks Biden is winning by 17 there. Not even anyone at ABC. But, that is what that particular survey found. And when you are only polling 1,000 people, you will get an outlier like that every once in a while.
So, you have to look at the averages of many pollsters. This evens out the outliers.
Rasmussen, as you said, has Biden +1 nationally. If Biden wins by 1, he will very likely lose (which is still just crazy to say out loud). But, Rasmussen also has Biden +3 in Pennsylvania. Let me go ahead and tell you, if Biden is +1 nationally, he isn't winning PA.
In fact, here is an article by Rasmussen saying how little Trump's chances are at winning: https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2020...ctoral-college
I will be stunned because every single poll (including the very right wing ones) has Biden winning there. Even in 2016, there were a few polls that had Trump winning Wisconsin (which he did).Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithKSR
There has not been one poll since May that had Trump winning there. Not one.
Is it impossible? No. But again, I would be stunned.
Some other numbers I crunched today.
The final RCP average had Clinton nationally +3.2. She won +2.1. So, final average finished within one point.
But, many state polls were off. BOTH ways.
Here are the final RCP averages in several states and the final results in those states:
Wisconsin RCP AVG C +6.5 / FR (Final Result) T +0.7
PA RCP AVG C+2.1 / FR T +0.7
Michigan RCP C +3.6 / FR T +0.3
These were the 3 states that won him the election. On average, he outperformed the state polls there by 5 points.
But, in several other toss up states, he actually underperformed the state polls: Texas, Nevada, Arizona.
And in several others, he basically came in right on target: Georgia, Florida, North Carolina.
More importantly, in all of the following states, his final results were within 2-3 points of his final national results:
Florida, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
All of that to say this....If the National Final Results are the same difference as the state results as they were in 2016, Trump would lose the following states:
Florida, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. He would win Georgia barely.
So, for Trump to win, he would need to expand his margin in all of those states from 2016. They would all need to be trending further red.
This is why the National polls are so important. If Biden wins nationally by 4, he will win the electoral college based on the states above.