Predicted Efficiency Margins

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Dylan Ballard
@DylanBallard_UK
·
Jan 6
🚨 CLARIFICATION & LINEUP INFORMATION — VERY INTERESTING 🚨

EVERY UK BASKETBALL SHOULD READ 😼

Shoutout to
@EvanMiya
for his help.

I want to clear something up from a tweet I sent earlier this week.

I was right that the lineup of Otega Oweh, Jaland Lowe, Kam Williams, Mouhamed Dioubate, and Jayden Quaintance only played about one minute together vs Alabama.

I was wrong when I said that exact lineup played most of the second half vs St. John’s.
That run actually had one different player — that’s on me, and I want to own it.

But the conversation that followed turned out to be really important.

I connected with Evan Miyakawa, who does some of the best lineup and efficiency work in college basketball, and he sent me projected lineup data since Jayden Quaintance returned.

Here’s the key point — and this is the whole reason I’m posting this:

➡️ The lineup of Oweh, Lowe, Williams, Dioubate, and Quaintance grades out as BY FAR Kentucky’s best projected lineup when you look at offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall efficiency margin per 100 possessions.

You’ll see it on the graphic I’m attaching:
• A+ overall grade
• Elite defensive efficiency
• Strong rebounding
• Balanced offensive profile

And yet…

👉 That lineup has played only 4 total possessions together.

That’s the part I can’t wrap my head around.

The data isn’t saying this lineup has been great — the sample is tiny.
It’s saying that on paper, based on player strengths, fit, and efficiency models, this lineup SHOULD be great if it’s given real run.

One other trend from the data is also worth noting:

Since Quaintance returned, the top projected lineups do not include Brandon Garrison.
You don’t see a Garrison + Quaintance pairing show up until much further down the list.

That doesn’t mean Brandon Garrison can’t help this team — it just suggests that those two together may not be the most efficient fit right now, and the numbers consistently point that way.

None of this is panic.
None of this is giving up.

I still very much want Mark Pope to succeed, and I think some fans are starting to lose patience — I’m not there.

But it feels like the data is pointing to some small, very fixable lineup decisions that could have a big impact.

I’m attaching the graphs so you can see it for yourself.
Curious what everyone thinks.