Housing Report from Bozeman--Why I send everyone to Lexington Kay Wye

We inch closer to the uber costly western towns like Jackson, WY or Salmon, ID or Steamboat/Boulder/Aspen, CO. A house I bought for $75K in 1990 now sells for $750K. It is 35 years, but wages have not gone up 10X in that period.

1. Economic & Population Growth:

• Gallatin County continues to experience strong job and income growth, fueled by construction, tourism, healthcare, and tech industries.
• Median household income surpassed $90,000 in 2023, the highest in the state.
• Population growth continues, though net in-migration has slowed since its 2021 peak.

2. Housing Affordability & Prices:

• Median single-family home price in 2024 was $810,000, up just 3% year-over-year, suggesting a slowdown in price acceleration.
• Affordability is critically low: median-income households can only afford ~39% of the cost of a median-priced home.
• Similar declines in rental affordability: median-income renters can only cover ~85% of average rent without being cost-burdened.

3. Housing Supply & Development Trends:

• 1,706 housing units were permitted in 2024, primarily multi-family in Bozeman and single-family in Belgrade.
• Multi-family development, especially duplexes and 5-9 unit structures, continues to grow in response to affordability pressures.
• New single-family detached sales have declined; townhomes have risen, driven by cost concerns.

4. Rental Market Dynamics:

• Bozeman remains the core rental hub; vacancy rates have stayed below the healthy 5% mark, keeping upward pressure on rents.
• HUD data shows sharp rent increases in 2024, though real-time data (e.g., Zillow) suggests a plateau in rent growth.

5. Affordable Housing Gap:

• Nearly 11,000 renter households are cost-burdened; almost half pay more than 50% of their income toward rent.
• For every subsidized unit, there are 9 cost-burdened households in the county.
• Affordable housing programs (LIHTC, Section 8, HOME) serve only a fraction of those in need.