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After last week's disastrous 0-4 mark, Kentucky has the entire week off until the weekend series. I think that's a good thing.
Losing 4 games this week drops Kentucky to the College Baseball # 4 RPI. Amazing how great scheduling (and, to be fair, good results until recently) can pay off.
South Carolina, this week's SEC opponent, is # 2 in the country in RPI, and sitting at 35-8 (14-6) will be more than a handful, even at Kentucky Proud Park.
Kentucky continues to tumble in the efforts to finish in the top 4 in the SEC and earn the first day bye, and although you'd say they are in outstanding shape to merely make the SEC Tournament in Hoover--as well as receive an NCAA bid--they have to do SOMETHING the rest of the season. Sitting at 30-13 (11-10 SEC), 9 times out of 10 we'd take that record heading into the final 3 weeks of the regular season. It's a disappointment only because we were so much better than that early--we thought. Still, although we have seen no sign of recent life, there's plenty of opportunity to have a great final 3 weeks plus postseason play.
The top 4 byes contenders appear to be as follows. Remember, the winner of each division gets a first day bye, and the next two best records, regardless of division.
SEC East
Vanderbilt 16-5
South Carolina 14-6
Florida 14-7
SEC West
LSU 15-5
Arkansas 14-7
Believe it or not, Kentucky and Tennessee are tied for the next best record in the league at 11-10. Still very unlikely that we'll earn a first day bye, sitting 3 games behind the worst record of that bunch.
As far as making Hoover is concerned, we just have to avoid being in the bottom 2. There are some bad SEC records so far this year. 5 of the 7 teams in the SEC West have a losing record, and 2 in the SEC East do as well.
Teams most likely to miss Hoover (bottom 2):
Missouri 5-16
Ole Miss 5-16
Miss. State 6-15
Georgia 8-13
Three teams have a 9-12 record; all sitting in decent shape to make Hoover with a 3 or 4 game lead, but you never know: Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M.
You'd think Kentucky was a lock, with at least a 2 game or more lead over 7 teams, and we probably are. But I wouldn't want to lose out and try.
I haven't liked everything Nick Mingione has done with the pitching staff, and the batting order has been...odd, to say the least. I'm fine with "shaking things up," but I think Dan pointed out that he had mixed it up so much--even from Game 1 to Game 2 to Game 3 in a series--it was doubtful the players even knew who they were batting after.
But I will say this. Ultimately players have to perform. I've been a fan of Ryan Hagenow, and thought he should have been used more. Well, the last 2 big outings he's had, he has blown. If pitchers can't get outs, it's hard to criticize the **strategy** of which one to use. Now, why they can't get outs is another story. The talent is there. Hagenow was one of the top 2 pitchers out of high school and signed with Kentucky. These are major league arms with minor league results. I was really giving UK pitching coach Dan Roszel a lot of praise early in the season. He had great results at ECU, forming stellar pitching staffs with low ERAs year after year and I thought he had established himself finally at UK with this bunch.
Maybe not. Or at least, "not so fast." Our team ERA has gone from 2nd or 3rd best in the SEC to 4th. While that may not seem like a big jump, we're now at a 4.10 ERA, whereas we were flirting with under 3. That's a HUGE jump, and enough to cause W's to turn into L's. The 4.10 isn't bad--but jumping from 3 to over 4 is horrible. Means we probably have had a "recent ERA" of something in the 6's, I'd guess (that's a WAG, but I bet it's close). An ERA of over 6 means you lose 4 games in a week.
Our team batting average remains 4th in the SEC at .292. We are such light hitters--only 28 home runs for the season, last in the league--we have to make up for it in other ways. Our "small ball" was excellent for much of the season, but recently has deflated. We lead the league in stolen bases with 70, but the margin is less than what it was--I see teams with 64, 64, and 63 stolen bases, too. We're stealing fewer bases. Our bunts have been fewer (although from what I've seen, they've mostly still been successful when attempted).
We still lead the league in sacrifice bunts by a LARGE margin -- we have 44, 2nd is Alabama with 16--but anecdotally, that has slowed down. I haven't checked, and won't, but I think that's accurate.
The only thing I have remained consistently happy with all year is our fielding. I will credit Nick Mingione--the UK teams have generally been very good fielding teams, and this year, despite fielding almost all new position players (7 of the 8, but even catcher was only a recent starter at the end of the season), Kentucky sports a .983 fielding percentage, which is # 1 in the SEC. We've turned some massive double plays at opportune times, and fielder our positions better than I expected this year. I haven't seen any real sign of that deteriorating, as I have with others.
Part of the reason for our deterioration, I think, is just schedule. It was set up nicely for us to get a good start, and gain confidence. We did that. But you have to pay the piper at some point in the SEC, and we reached that point and we have wilted.
Wow. This turned into a lot longer than I intended. Sorry for the length. Here's hoping we can buck the trend and win the series this weekend.
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