Does the Sunday game ever count in the NCAA tourney bracket when we win it? Seems like we could beat Auburn and still be lower seeded because, darn it, it's really a home game for Kentucky, it's too late to change the brackets, something.
Sunday games never seem to count if UK wins their Sunday match ups. On the other hand if they lose the Sunday game there is often a negative seeding effect.
This happens with polsters, the seeding committee, sports reporters, and the UK AD all claiming Sunday games do not count as the seeds were already assigned days before the final tournament outcomes were known.
Sunday games never seem to count if UK wins their Sunday match ups. On the other hand if they lose the Sunday game there is often a negative seeding effect.
This happens with polsters, the seeding committee, sports reporters, and the UK AD all claiming Sunday games do not count as the seeds were already assigned days before the final tournament outcomes were known.
I think only the first part of this is true. They don't matter, win or lose.
I can't think of a Sunday game we lost that hurt us (mostly because we don't lose on Sunday very often).
I think only the first part of this is true. They don't matter, win or lose.
I can't think of a Sunday game we lost that hurt us (mostly because we don't lose on Sunday very often).
I do not remember any specifics, that being years, seeds, winning opponents. I just remember that in a few years in the last 30 or so that it has happened.
Sunday games never seem to count if UK wins their Sunday match ups. On the other hand if they lose the Sunday game there is often a negative seeding effect.
This happens with polsters, the seeding committee, sports reporters, and the UK AD all claiming Sunday games do not count as the seeds were already assigned days before the final tournament outcomes were known.
I think it's 90-95% certainty that Sunday's outcome will have no bearing on the bracket.
Why it will not:
1) The committee only evaluates a h2h matchup if 2 teams are seeded adjacent, basically tied on the S-curve. Auburn's 14-4 Q1/Q2 record is better than UK's 12-6. As long as Auburn does win at least 1 game in the tourney, they will still finish with a better overall resume (considering that Q1/Q2 is the #1 criteria for evaluating teams).
2) A UK win only neutralizes the road loss. There will be no reason for the committee to elevate UK without a h2h advantage.
3) The committee evaluates on the entire body of work and not just the outcome of 1-2 games. I think the committee must really see something in teams to shuffle them around much after the initial reveal. When you look at Auburn, they're exactly in the same place they were when seeded as a 1-seed. They dropped a couple of games, but so did everyone. However, they won the SEC outright.
4) UK's direct competition is Kansas. Most bracketologists have Baylor and KU getting a 1-seed. Baylor will not lose theirs, but what about Kansas? If they win, they'll get it.
Reasons why we will get the 1 seed:
1) Recency bias. A win over Auburn on a neutral court means more than a loss on the road, that resulted in a loss primarily from 2 players going down.
2) UK's wins have always been more impressive, add to that 3 more wins over legitimate tourney teams may be enough to persuade the committee that a lack of overall Q1/Q2 wins is offset by the overall quality of our wins.
3) UK has shown an ability since the initial reveal to win with men down. It is legitimate to question during the first reveal if the committee over-evaluated the team with doubts to TyTy and Wheeler. Maybe we were higher than we originally thought from the reveal.
So, the reasons why we would get the 1-seed are very objective criteria that the committee has not proven that they use when doing their seeding. But frankly, the primary reason why I don't feel we would get the 1-seed is because Sunday games have never mattered. The more unsettled the back end of the tournament is on Sunday, the less likely the committee is going to look at Sunday games. If there are no surprises when games end Sunday, then the committee may take a look at Sunday results assuming that geographical continuity is not disrupted. Luckily, Auburn has none, but UK certainly does.
I do not remember any specifics, that being years, seeds, winning opponents. I just remember that in a few years in the last 30 or so that it has happened.
Here are the only times we lost on Sunday in the SECT since the NCAA field expanded to 64.
2014 - Lost to Florida. Got an 8 seed. Ridiculous looking back, but that was a bubble team heading into the SECT. Losing didn't hurt our seed in that one.
2012 - Lost to Vandy. Still #1 overall seed, clearly didn't hurt our seed
2005 - Lost to Florida. Got a 2 seed. Guess there's a chance that dropped us a seed line, but I don't think that was the case.
1996 - See 2012
So there really aren't examples of losing in the SECT final hurting our seed.
The East bracket is by far the most likely #1 seed still up for grabs.
As of now, I believe that is Auburn.
That puts UK as the likely #2 seed in the Midwest (Arizona) or South (Baylor).
I think Gonzaga and Arizona are likely locked in as #1's. So, there are 2 #1's between 4 teams (Baylor, Auburn, Kansas, UK).
It would be VERY easy for the committee to meet on Saturday, and if UK and Auburn are in the championship game on Sunday, they can give the final #1 in the East to whoever wins that game. It's a simple swap. Winner gets #1 in East. Loser gets #2 in Midwest or South.
And definitely if one of Auburn/UK lose before Sunday and the other is playing on Sunday, they would likely get the #1 and the Sunday result wouldn't matter (as that would complicate too many things). Swapping two SEC teams is easy.
In most years, I have no doubt the Sunday games matter very little. But, in a year where two teams from the same conference are neck and neck and playing on the final day of the season....I think it will.
The East bracket is by far the most likely #1 seed still up for grabs.
As of now, I believe that is Auburn.
That puts UK as the likely #2 seed in the Midwest (Arizona) or South (Baylor).
I think Gonzaga and Arizona are likely locked in as #1's. So, there are 2 #1's between 4 teams (Baylor, Auburn, Kansas, UK).
It would be VERY easy for the committee to meet on Saturday, and if UK and Auburn are in the championship game on Sunday, they can give the final #1 in the East to whoever wins that game. It's a simple swap. Winner gets #1 in East. Loser gets #2 in Midwest or South.
And definitely if one of Auburn/UK lose before Sunday and the other is playing on Sunday, they would likely get the #1 and the Sunday result wouldn't matter (as that would complicate too many things). Swapping two SEC teams is easy.
In most years, I have no doubt the Sunday games matter very little. But, in a year where two teams from the same conference are neck and neck and playing on the final day of the season....I think it will.
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