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  • Kentucky Roster Watch 2018-19

    Comments 37 Comments
    1. StuBleedsBlue2's Avatar
      StuBleedsBlue2 -
      Actually, that graph triggers a good conversation piece.

      For those that gripe so much about having to reload every year, what would be your minimum threshold for returning scoring, rebounding and assists?

      I'm not a griper, but for me it depends a lot who's coming in, but I would like be in that 40-60% range for any given stat. However, that's a very fluid answer.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      I'm going to be very pleased with what we have returning. When you add 3-5 5* players to a team with 40-60% returning production, that bodes well for the team in general.
    1. CatQuick's Avatar
      CatQuick -
      Given Cal isn't going to stop recruiting the elite talent, if we could get 40% returning production each year, I think that would be a good mix with new talent.
    1. ebarbaau's Avatar
      ebarbaau -
      Strike Hami too
    1. blueboss's Avatar
      blueboss -
      Quote Originally Posted by ebarbaau View Post
      Strike Hami too
      When did he announce?


      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Updated with SGA/Hagans announcements.

      Attachment 7078
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      By the way, by explanation, I just used "Guard" for the 1-2-3 positions, and "Forward" for bigs, 4's and 5's. You can rearrange guys like Johnson if you'd like. I consider Gabriel more of a 4 than a 3.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Updated with the Pulliam announcement.

      By my count we have 12 scholarship players (not counting Brad Calipari), and two walk-ons (counting Brad Calipari).Attachment 7079
    1. KeithKSR's Avatar
      KeithKSR -
      Hagans is not a definite 2018 kid right now.
    1. ukpumacat's Avatar
      ukpumacat -
      This is going to get worse unfortunately. Not better.
    1. ukpumacat's Avatar
      ukpumacat -
      Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
      I'm going to be very pleased with what we have returning. When you add 3-5 5* players to a team with 40-60% returning production, that bodes well for the team in general.
      The two teams that have won it all with the lowest returning production were (unsurprisingly) UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015.
      Their %ís relative to returning points/rebounds was:
      UK - 55/52
      Duke - 41/50

      So, that would be the absolute floor for me. BUT...and this is a big BUT because it goes back to one of my concerns for next years team:
      That was only possible because both of those teams had elite talent coming in.
      Davis is one of the best college basketball players of all time.
      And Okafor and Winslow were both NBA lottery picks.
      Those numbers can hover around 50% IF you have a Top 3 draft pick coming in.
      Those were transcendent college players.

      Iím not going to do the math right now on every National Champion in the last 10 years....but I can nearly guarantee you the average is closer to 70%.

      Cal has been here 10 years. He has gotten to the Final Four when he has a mix of experience AND elite talent.
      If we lose anyone else, next year we are lacking in the experience category...AND do not have elite/transcendent talent (which is somewhat subjective. But I am using Top 5 high school player as my guide).
      Now, if we donít lose anyone else...I will feel better.
      And if we donít lose anyone else AND add Wiseman or Carey for this years class....weíll then I will feel optimistic at our chances for the Final Four.
      Still just waiting to see how it all shakes out.
    1. Krank's Avatar
      Krank -
      Sooooo....

      lookin' at that roster, today as it stands NOW, I'll take the following for starters and reserves...


      Starters:

      PG Green
      SG Diallo
      SF Johnson
      PF Gabriel
      PF Washington


      Reserves:

      PG Hagans
      PG Quickley
      SG Herro
      PF Vanderbilt
      C Richards


      That leaves Baker, Montgomery, and Calipari in the 11-13 slots on this roster. That's DEEP baby.

      Starters include 1 Jr., 3 So., and ONLY ONE Freshman. Multiple players capable of playing multiple positions on both sides of the ball.

      Reserves include a three guard lineup with size and D at the point, shooting from the guards, and stout rebounding/athleticism inside.

      Perhaps I should somehow find minutes for Baker and Montgomery in the Top 10 of the rotation, but our guards/wings will be playing multiple guard/wing spots, depending on rotations, but maybe Montgomery will take minutes from someone. I just see PJ and Wenyen as our minutes horses down there, Richards getting a lot off the bench, but Vanderbilt too (IF Jarred doesn't start, which he very well might).

      Man, this is a tough roster to slot guys into. We'll see if it changes again.

      Who ya got, anyone?
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
      The two teams that have won it all with the lowest returning production were (unsurprisingly) UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015.
      Their %’s relative to returning points/rebounds was:
      UK - 55/52
      Duke - 41/50

      So, that would be the absolute floor for me. BUT...and this is a big BUT because it goes back to one of my concerns for next years team:
      That was only possible because both of those teams had elite talent coming in.
      Davis is one of the best college basketball players of all time.
      And Okafor and Winslow were both NBA lottery picks.
      Those numbers can hover around 50% IF you have a Top 3 draft pick coming in.
      Those were transcendent college players.

      I’m not going to do the math right now on every National Champion in the last 10 years....but I can nearly guarantee you the average is closer to 70%.

      Cal has been here 10 years. He has gotten to the Final Four when he has a mix of experience AND elite talent.
      If we lose anyone else, next year we are lacking in the experience category...AND do not have elite/transcendent talent (which is somewhat subjective. But I am using Top 5 high school player as my guide).
      Now, if we don’t lose anyone else...I will feel better.
      And if we don’t lose anyone else AND add Wiseman or Carey for this years class....we’ll then I will feel optimistic at our chances for the Final Four.
      Still just waiting to see how it all shakes out.
      Meh. I'm unconvinced by absolutes. You can't convince me that 2012 Kentucky was the absolute bottom number of returning production that it takes to win a title. It's a little like the Ken Pomeroy AdjO and AdjD numbers. Those numbers are the key until they aren't. The game has changed, and is continuing to evolve. One year it will be a team winning with 80% returning production. The next year it will be a version of the Michigan Fab Five.

      I'll stick with the 40-60% and 3-5 5* players and be in the hunt more often than not, statistics be damned. Now, it has to be the right mix of players, shooters, alpha dogs, rebounders, etc. It doesn't happen in a vacuum. Nothing happens in a vacuum. That's why I'm even hesitant to be formulaic with it, but that's why I built in a fairly large margin (40-60%, and 3-5 5* players is a lot of leeway).

      JMO. That isn't making a prediction on this particular year's team, but I will be content just about every year if we do fall within those parameters. It will work out more often than not.
    1. ukpumacat's Avatar
      ukpumacat -
      For sure. I think I would agree with that Darrell. Unfortunately we could possibly drop below that level in return production. I absolutely hope not.
      Cal has just yet to win without a Top 5 guy. It doesnít mean he canít. But he hasnít. Which means Iím not confident until he does it without one.
    1. KeithKSR's Avatar
      KeithKSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
      For sure. I think I would agree with that Darrell. Unfortunately we could possibly drop below that level in return production. I absolutely hope not.
      Cal has just yet to win without a Top 5 guy. It doesn’t mean he can’t. But he hasn’t. Which means I’m not confident until he does it without one.
      Win what? Are you referring to Final Fours or titles? What do you mean by top 5? NBA draft or recruiting rankings?
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
      For sure. I think I would agree with that Darrell. Unfortunately we could possibly drop below that level in return production. I absolutely hope not.
      Cal has just yet to win without a Top 5 guy. It doesn’t mean he can’t. But he hasn’t. Which means I’m not confident until he does it without one.
      Agree with all of that as well. I'm trying to be careful not to be overly optimistic, even if we don't drop (and we may very well drop) below those numbers. I think those superstar players play such a vital role, for sure.

      Here's a story Jon Hale has today on "best case" and "worst case" roster for next year.

      https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...ons/497954002/
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Updated with Diallo's likely departure. Not necessarily accurate with Hagans.

      Attachment 7081
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Despite all the chatter about PJ and Quade, in my gut I still believe in the end PJ, Quade and Vanderbilt will all be back, making this an experienced AND talented team.

      Don't feel as good about Wenyen, but I really hope we hold on to him as well.
    1. ukpumacat's Avatar
      ukpumacat -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      Despite all the chatter about PJ and Quade, in my gut I still believe in the end PJ, Quade and Vanderbilt will all be back, making this an experienced AND talented team.

      Don't feel as good about Wenyen, but I really hope we hold on to him as well.
      If we lose one more the % drops below the least experienced teams to ever win it all.
      And those teams had AD and Okafor on them.
      I just really hope we keep them all.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by ukpumacat View Post
      If we lose one more the % drops below the least experienced teams to ever win it all.
      And those teams had AD and Okafor on them.
      I just really hope we keep them all.
      ....and hope that it's a weak year for elite teams.