As of now, Kentucky is out of the top 4 teams. All hope of an SEC regular season championship has long been gone, so now it's just a hope to finish in the top four and get the double bye and hope to make a tournament run.
There are 9 teams in play at this time.
1. Auburn 10-2
2. Tennessee 8-4
2. Florida 8-4
4. Missouri 7-5
4. Alabama 7-5
I don't know who would win the tiebreaker between Missouri and Alabama, haven't looked, way too early and not terribly relevant anyway. But tiebreaker may come into play for Kentucky, so keep that in mind as Kentucky faces these teams again for possible head to head tiebreaker equations, and/or three-team tiebreakers, etc.
6. Mississippi State 6-6
6. Kentucky 6-6
6. Texas A&M 6-6
6. Arkansas 6-6
I'm going to unilaterally concede spots # 1 through 3 to Auburn, Tennessee and Florida. I started the thread, so that's my rule, but feel free to differ if you'd like. So for my view, I'm eliminating them as irrelevant to the discussion, except to the extent they play UK and other teams.
That leaves 6 teams which will vie for one spot. That's the position we're in--fighting to be the best among those six. Here are the teams and their schedules:
4. Missouri 7-5 (Texas A&M, @ LSU, Ole Miss, @ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, Arkansas)
4. Alabama 7-5 (LSU, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, @ Texas A&M)
6. Mississippi State 6-6 (@ Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, @ Texas A&M, South Carolina, Tennessee, @ LSU)
6. Kentucky 6-6 (@ Auburn, Alabama, @ Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss, @ Florida)
6. Texas A&M 6-6 (@ Missouri, @ Arkansas, Miss. State, @ Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, Alabama)
6. Arkansas 6-6 (@ Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Kentucky, @ Alabama, Auburn, @ Missouri)
If we only had to beat out 2 or 3 of these teams, I'd feel better about it, but having to be # 1 among these 6 teams is tough. Will 4-2 do it? Maybe not, but you know 3-3 won't do it. So Kentucky, AT A MINIMUM, must go 4-2 the last six games to finish top four, and that still may not do it.
Just for reference--TeamRankings projects:
1. Auburn 14-4
2. Tennessee 12-6
3. Florida 12-6 (but lower odds of it)
4. Missouri 10-8
And statistically a little lower
5. Alabama 10-8
6. Texas A&M 10-8
7. Kentucky 9-9
The key, to me, seems to be the Missouri and Alabama games for Kentucky, and pick up two more wins. Ole Miss and either Auburn, Arkansas or Florida.
TeamRankings has the 6 teams "at issue" projected exactly as follows:
4. Missouri 10.3 - 7.7
5. Alabama 9.7 - 8.3
6. Texas A&M 9.5 - 8.5
7. Kentucky 9.2 - 8.8
8. Arkansas 9.1 - 8.9
9. Miss. State 8.8 - 9.2
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