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  • With 6 games to go, SEC Standings and UK's quest to finish Top 4

    As of now, Kentucky is out of the top 4 teams. All hope of an SEC regular season championship has long been gone, so now it's just a hope to finish in the top four and get the double bye and hope to make a tournament run.

    There are 9 teams in play at this time.

    1. Auburn 10-2
    2. Tennessee 8-4
    2. Florida 8-4
    4. Missouri 7-5
    4. Alabama 7-5

    I don't know who would win the tiebreaker between Missouri and Alabama, haven't looked, way too early and not terribly relevant anyway. But tiebreaker may come into play for Kentucky, so keep that in mind as Kentucky faces these teams again for possible head to head tiebreaker equations, and/or three-team tiebreakers, etc.

    6. Mississippi State 6-6
    6. Kentucky 6-6
    6. Texas A&M 6-6
    6. Arkansas 6-6

    I'm going to unilaterally concede spots # 1 through 3 to Auburn, Tennessee and Florida. I started the thread, so that's my rule, but feel free to differ if you'd like. So for my view, I'm eliminating them as irrelevant to the discussion, except to the extent they play UK and other teams.

    That leaves 6 teams which will vie for one spot. That's the position we're in--fighting to be the best among those six. Here are the teams and their schedules:

    4. Missouri 7-5 (Texas A&M, @ LSU, Ole Miss, @ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, Arkansas)
    4. Alabama 7-5 (LSU, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, @ Texas A&M)

    6. Mississippi State 6-6 (@ Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, @ Texas A&M, South Carolina, Tennessee, @ LSU)
    6. Kentucky 6-6 (@ Auburn, Alabama, @ Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss, @ Florida)
    6. Texas A&M 6-6 (@ Missouri, @ Arkansas, Miss. State, @ Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, Alabama)
    6. Arkansas 6-6 (@ Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Kentucky, @ Alabama, Auburn, @ Missouri)

    If we only had to beat out 2 or 3 of these teams, I'd feel better about it, but having to be # 1 among these 6 teams is tough. Will 4-2 do it? Maybe not, but you know 3-3 won't do it. So Kentucky, AT A MINIMUM, must go 4-2 the last six games to finish top four, and that still may not do it.

    Just for reference--TeamRankings projects:

    1. Auburn 14-4
    2. Tennessee 12-6
    3. Florida 12-6 (but lower odds of it)
    4. Missouri 10-8

    And statistically a little lower

    5. Alabama 10-8
    6. Texas A&M 10-8
    7. Kentucky 9-9

    The key, to me, seems to be the Missouri and Alabama games for Kentucky, and pick up two more wins. Ole Miss and either Auburn, Arkansas or Florida.

    TeamRankings has the 6 teams "at issue" projected exactly as follows:

    4. Missouri 10.3 - 7.7
    5. Alabama 9.7 - 8.3
    6. Texas A&M 9.5 - 8.5
    7. Kentucky 9.2 - 8.8
    8. Arkansas 9.1 - 8.9
    9. Miss. State 8.8 - 9.2
    Comments 37 Comments
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      There’s a path to getting the 4 seed even with one loss. We can lose at Arkansas or at Florida and still have a chance, but would need some help.

      If we run the table, it’s not a lock, but we’d be in great shape.
    1. CitizenBBN's Avatar
      CitizenBBN -
      Not holding my breath.
    1. Catfan73's Avatar
      Catfan73 -
      I do feel a lot better this morning but there’s only two games separating a double bye from a play in game in the standings. Hopefully we’re starting to understand what it takes to win.
    1. Doc's Avatar
      Doc -
      Arkansas is a huge game. Need that or Florida...but prefer both
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      As frsutrating as the last couple weeks have been, losing the UT game at Rupp is the one we're going to REALLY regret.

      We're one game out of a 4 way tie for 3rd. UT is a game ahead of that in 2nd, and we have no realistic chance of winning any tiebreaker that involves them, because they swept us. We were up 2 with the ball with less than a minute left. If we had won, we'd be in a 6 way tie for 2nd. Instead, we need help to finish top 4.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      After today (by the way, the three SEC games tonight all went OPPOSITE the way the predictor link predicted them):

      SEC Standings

      1. Auburn (13 - 5) Defeated Tennessee based on head-to-head record.
      2. Tennessee (13 - 5) Lost to Auburn based on head-to-head record.
      3. Florida (10 - 8) Defeated Alabama, Missouri, and Kentucky based on round-robin record.
      4. Missouri (10 - 8) With Alabama, defeated Kentucky and lost to Florida based on round-robin record. Defeated Alabama based on head-to-head record.
      5. Alabama (10 - 8) With Missouri, defeated Kentucky and lost to Florida based on round-robin record. Lost to Missouri based on head-to-head record.
      6. Kentucky (10 - 8) Lost to Florida, Alabama, and Missouri based on round-robin record.
      7. Mississippi State (9 - 9) Defeated Arkansas and Texas A&M based on round-robin record.
      8. Arkansas (9 - 9) With Texas A&M, lost to Mississippi State based on round-robin record. Defeated Texas A&M based on record against #1 teams.
      9. Texas A&M (9 - 9) With Arkansas, lost to Mississippi State based on round-robin record. Lost to Arkansas based on record against #1 teams.
      10. Louisiana State (8 - 10)
      11. South Carolina (7 - 11) Defeated Georgia based on head-to-head record.
      12. Georgia (7 - 11) Lost to South Carolina based on head-to-head record.
      13. Mississippi (6 - 12)
      14. Vanderbilt (5 - 13)
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Mizzou just lost. We’re in a 4 way tie for 5th right now.

      If Auburn and UT can both win at home tomorrow, we'll be in a SIX way tie for 3rd in the SEC.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      There are multiple ways we could get top 4 without winning at Florida, but I say we should just go ahead and win out!
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Current Standings (above is projected):

      CONF OVERALL

      1 Auburn 11-3 23-4
      2 Tennessee 9-5 19-7
      3 Alabama 8-6 17-10
      3 Florida 8-6 17-10
      5 Mississippi State 8-7 20-8
      5 Kentucky 8-7 19-9
      5 Arkansas 8-7 19-9
      5 Missouri 8-7 18-10
      9 LSU 7-8 16-11
      10 Georgia 6-8 15-11
      11 Texas A&M 6-9 17-11
      12 South Carolina 5-9 14-13
      13 Ole Miss 5-10 12-16
      13 Vanderbilt 5-10 11-17
    1. Doc's Avatar
      Doc -
      Well, the rop 4 teams play each other tomorrow (AL at Au and FL at TN) so there will be a shake up after tomorrow
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Quote Originally Posted by Doc View Post
      Well, the rop 4 teams play each other tomorrow (AL at Au and FL at TN) so there will be a shake up after tomorrow
      We definitely want AU and UT to both win. We can't catch Auburn, and while we might be able to tie UT, we can't win any tiebreaker. But if they both win, we can get the 3 seed.
    1. Darryl's Avatar
      Darryl -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      We definitely want AU and UT to both win. We can't catch Auburn, and while we might be able to tie UT, we can't win any tiebreaker. But if they both win, we can get the 3 seed.
      I still think Auburn could lose out and end up with seven losses

      Tennessee is the one that I think ends up with six losses

      Darryl
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Quote Originally Posted by Darryl View Post
      I still think Auburn could lose out and end up with seven losses

      Tennessee is the one that I think ends up with six losses

      Darryl
      Even if they lose the next 3, can't see Auburn losing at home to SC, when they just got thumped by them.
    1. Darryl's Avatar
      Darryl -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      Even if they lose the next 3, can't see Auburn losing at home to SC, when they just got thumped by them.
      D, McLemore was probably Auburn's MVP. USC has 2 really good bigs that will be a real problem for AU.

      Darryl
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Quote Originally Posted by Darryl View Post
      D, McLemore was probably Auburn's MVP. USC has 2 really good bigs that will be a real problem for AU.

      Darryl
      Maybe. Just can't see them losing what would be 5 straight.
    1. KeithKSR's Avatar
      KeithKSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      Maybe. Just can't see them losing what would be 5 straight.
      Their schedule is backloaded, they struggled with bigger teams with McLemore, they are in real trouble without him.
    1. Catfan73's Avatar
      Catfan73 -
      I think if we win out we'll get the 3 seed in the SEC tourney; the 5 if we go 2-1. The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head records among the tied teams and if we end up tied with say Bama, Florida, and MSU, Alabama and UF would get the 3 and 4. If we can win out though and end up tied with only Bama for 3rd, we would win the tiebreaker. With the way we seem to be figuring things out the last couple of games I think that's the most likely scenario. As long as I don't jinx us lol.
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