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  • With 6 games to go, SEC Standings and UK's quest to finish Top 4

    As of now, Kentucky is out of the top 4 teams. All hope of an SEC regular season championship has long been gone, so now it's just a hope to finish in the top four and get the double bye and hope to make a tournament run.

    There are 9 teams in play at this time.

    1. Auburn 10-2
    2. Tennessee 8-4
    2. Florida 8-4
    4. Missouri 7-5
    4. Alabama 7-5

    I don't know who would win the tiebreaker between Missouri and Alabama, haven't looked, way too early and not terribly relevant anyway. But tiebreaker may come into play for Kentucky, so keep that in mind as Kentucky faces these teams again for possible head to head tiebreaker equations, and/or three-team tiebreakers, etc.

    6. Mississippi State 6-6
    6. Kentucky 6-6
    6. Texas A&M 6-6
    6. Arkansas 6-6

    I'm going to unilaterally concede spots # 1 through 3 to Auburn, Tennessee and Florida. I started the thread, so that's my rule, but feel free to differ if you'd like. So for my view, I'm eliminating them as irrelevant to the discussion, except to the extent they play UK and other teams.

    That leaves 6 teams which will vie for one spot. That's the position we're in--fighting to be the best among those six. Here are the teams and their schedules:

    4. Missouri 7-5 (Texas A&M, @ LSU, Ole Miss, @ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, Arkansas)
    4. Alabama 7-5 (LSU, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, @ Texas A&M)

    6. Mississippi State 6-6 (@ Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, @ Texas A&M, South Carolina, Tennessee, @ LSU)
    6. Kentucky 6-6 (@ Auburn, Alabama, @ Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss, @ Florida)
    6. Texas A&M 6-6 (@ Missouri, @ Arkansas, Miss. State, @ Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, Alabama)
    6. Arkansas 6-6 (@ Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Kentucky, @ Alabama, Auburn, @ Missouri)

    If we only had to beat out 2 or 3 of these teams, I'd feel better about it, but having to be # 1 among these 6 teams is tough. Will 4-2 do it? Maybe not, but you know 3-3 won't do it. So Kentucky, AT A MINIMUM, must go 4-2 the last six games to finish top four, and that still may not do it.

    Just for reference--TeamRankings projects:

    1. Auburn 14-4
    2. Tennessee 12-6
    3. Florida 12-6 (but lower odds of it)
    4. Missouri 10-8

    And statistically a little lower

    5. Alabama 10-8
    6. Texas A&M 10-8
    7. Kentucky 9-9

    The key, to me, seems to be the Missouri and Alabama games for Kentucky, and pick up two more wins. Ole Miss and either Auburn, Arkansas or Florida.

    TeamRankings has the 6 teams "at issue" projected exactly as follows:

    4. Missouri 10.3 - 7.7
    5. Alabama 9.7 - 8.3
    6. Texas A&M 9.5 - 8.5
    7. Kentucky 9.2 - 8.8
    8. Arkansas 9.1 - 8.9
    9. Miss. State 8.8 - 9.2
    This article was originally published in forum thread: With 6 games to go, SEC Standings and UK's quest to finish Top 4 started by Darrell KSR View original post
    Comments 37 Comments
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by Catfan73 View Post
      This is just sad. Now we’re talking about what we need to do to finish 4th in basketball. Not final four mind you but fourth in the SEC. No offense Darrell, and I know where you’re coming from but it just struck me as funny and sad all at once.

      Now if expectations drop to Terry’s expectations for the football program level then we’re in trouble lol.
      None taken.

      At this point, I'm looking for steps to climb. One of them would be getting the "top four teams" bye, which, at this point, looks less likely than not.
    1. kingcat's Avatar
      kingcat -
      We may have to lower our sites to a play in game.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      We need A&M to come back and beat Mizzou tonight to have any realistic chance at the top 4. Mizzou’s renaming schedule is really easy others than playing us in Rupp. If they win tonight, we probably need to run the table just to tie them.
    1. Terminus's Avatar
      Terminus -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      We need A&M to come back and beat Mizzou tonight to have any realistic chance at the top 4. Mizzou’s renaming schedule is really easy others than playing us in Rupp. If they win tonight, we probably need to run the table just to tie them.
      I’m afraid you’re right; they’re schedule certainly looks cushy. They’re up 10 on TAMU at the under 8 TO which surprises me a bit.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Quote Originally Posted by Terminus View Post
      I’m afraid you’re right; they’re schedule certainly looks cushy. They’re up 10 on TAMU at the under 8 TO which surprises me a bit.
      A&M completely forgot they have great big men and jacked up terrible 3’s for most of the part I watched.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Good lord. A&M gets the ball back down 2 with 51 seconds left. Not only do they not go 2 for 1, they get a shot clock violation despite a free timeout. Absolutely pathetic.
    1. Terminus's Avatar
      Terminus -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      Good lord. A&M gets the ball back down 2 with 51 seconds left. Not only do they not go 2 for 1, they get a shot clock violation despite a free timeout. Absolutely pathetic.
      Switched back from the half pipe to see that - just turrible.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Updated.

      1. Auburn 11-2
      2. Tennessee 9-4

      3. Florida 8-5
      3. Missouri 8-5
      3. Alabama 8-5

      6. Arkansas 7-6

      7. Mississippi State 6-7
      7. Kentucky 6-7
      7. Texas A&M 6-7

      OK--it's getting extremely difficult now, but not impossible. Top 2 spots, let's concede and move on. If I conceded any more than that, it's over, as spots 3, 4 & 5 are all tied. So we'll pretend they are ALL in play.

      3/4/5. Florida 8-5 (@Vandy, @ Tennessee, Auburn, @ Alabama, Kentucky)
      My comments -- tougher than I thought. The game against Kentucky may be meaningful. I could see them easily losing Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama games. Vanderbilt has been stupid good against Florida in the past.


      3/4/5. Missouri 8-5 (@ LSU, Ole Miss, @ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, Arkansas)
      My comments: pretty easy schedule. Game at Kentucky by far the toughest one. I could see them grabbing the # 3 spot pretty easily, could be as high as a 12-6 record. That usually means they go out and lose to the last place team immediately.

      3/4/5. Alabama 8-5 (@ Kentucky, @ Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, @ Texas A&M)
      My comments: They finish tough. Big games for them coming up beginning this weekend. Obviously big for UK as well, but they could lose 4 of the final 5.

      6. Arkansas 7-6 (Texas A&M, Kentucky, @ Alabama, Auburn, @ Missouri)
      My comments: Surprise, surprise, at them sneaking back in. Have 5 tough games, but 3 of them at home. Could be looking at a 10-8 final conference record. Might be enough for # 4 slot.

      7/8/9. Mississippi State 6-7 (Ole Miss, @ Texas A&M, South Carolina, Tennessee, @ LSU)
      My comments: They play 3 of the weaker teams and two tough ones, one at home. Could be interesting.


      7/8/9. Kentucky 6-7 (Alabama, @ Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss, @ Florida)
      My comments: Kentucky doesn't need to go undefeated in these final 5 games, but a 3-2 mark won't get them in the top 4. A 4-1 mark probably would. At 10-8, they could easily be tied with Alabama, Missouri or Arkansas, and if they win all three of those games, they'd win the tiebreaker.

      7/8/9. Texas A&M 6-7 (@ Arkansas, Miss. State, @ Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, Alabama)
      My comments: I could see them coming from the bottom of the pack and getting in the top 4. Stupid loss last night at Missouri, but their key game may be Saturday vs Arkansas. Win that one, and at home v Miss. State, play Vandy, then Georgia, and could be a nice 4 game win streak before they finish at home vs Bama.

      Sheesh. It really is very difficult.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      I've given up on top 4. I just want to avoid the 5 seed, because I'll be on a plane to Vegas and won't get to watch.

      Waking up this morning and seeing Florida gagged at home to UGA was a gut punch. We missed a golden opportunity. Would've had a very realistic chance to get back in the top 4 if we'd won that one. We would've been 7-6, tied with Arkansas, 1 game back of UF, Mizzou and Bama, with games against all 4.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      I've given up on top 4. I just want to avoid the 5 seed, because I'll be on a plane to Vegas and won't get to watch.

      Waking up this morning and seeing Florida gagged at home to UGA was a gut punch. We missed a golden opportunity. Would've had a very realistic chance to get back in the top 4 if we'd won that one. We would've been 7-6, tied with Arkansas, 1 game back of UF, Mizzou and Bama, with games against all 4.
      You're a wise man. I'm holding out hope. Cats have to beat a very good Alabama team (at times) this weekend, and then pull a rabbit out of their hat and beat Arkansas at their place. If they do that, and hold serve, they'll be 10-7 going into Gainesville. That MIGHT be good enough, but I haven't looked at all the permutations. We'd have to win the 4 seed on a tiebreaker, I'm sure.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      This is a fun website I ran across last year that you can start to play with now with only 5 games left.

      http://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=mbb

      It selects the teams favored by Sagarin as default winners, but you can change it.

      If you don't change anything else, which has us winning all 3 home games, we're the 8 seed at 9-9.
      If you don't change anything else, but have us winning all 3 home games AND the Arkansas game, we're the 5 seed at 10-8.
      If you don't change anything else, but have us winning out, we're the 4 seed at 11-7.
      If you go only by my quick 2 minute predictions of each of the rest of the games (us winning the home games with a couple other changes from the default), we're the 7 seed at 9-9.

      Of course, it won't play out according to the Sagarin rankings, but still fun to play with.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Quote Originally Posted by dtalbersjr View Post
      This is a fun website I ran across last year that you can start to play with now with only 5 games left.

      http://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=mbb

      It selects the teams favored by Sagarin as default winners, but you can change it.

      If you don't change anything else, which has us winning all 3 home games, we're the 8 seed at 9-9.
      If you don't change anything else, but have us winning all 3 home games AND the Arkansas game, we're the 5 seed at 10-8.
      If you don't change anything else, but have us winning out, we're the 4 seed at 11-7.
      If you go only by my quick 2 minute predictions of each of the rest of the games (us winning the home games with a couple other changes from the default), we're the 7 seed at 9-9.

      Of course, it won't play out according to the Sagarin rankings, but still fun to play with.
      That looks really cool. I'm parked in my car, but when I get back in front of a computer I expect to be useless and unproductive while I play with it.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      Kentucky pretty much has to go undefeated, or have a lot of help and go 4-1 the last 5 games. Wow. Tough.

      Great link, dta. That's a very fun site. I played around with it a little for my Alabama friends, too.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
      Kentucky pretty much has to go undefeated, or have a lot of help and go 4-1 the last 5 games. Wow. Tough.

      Great link, dta. That's a very fun site. I played around with it a little for my Alabama friends, too.

      It really is fun. A lot better once you get down to 4 or 5 games left and you can go through and give your best guesses.

      I'd love to get the 4 seed, but I'd be overjoyed to go 4-1 even if we don't sneak into the top 4 because that would mean a good run against at least 2 or 3 good teams.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      You laid it out, but didn't realize how brutal Florida's last 5 are. They SHOULD win at Vandy, especially coming off a puzzling home loss to UGA. But if they happened to stumble, they could be in some trouble.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      lol. I put in some absurd results, and Kentucky can get an SEC regular season championship! We would get the # 2 seed in the tournament, but still add to our SEC regular season championships (SEC does not recognize "co" championships, any tie is a full championship).

      SEC Standings

      1. Auburn (11 - 7) Defeated Kentucky and Arkansas based on round-robin record.
      2. Kentucky (11 - 7) Defeated Arkansas and lost to Auburn based on round-robin record.
      3. Arkansas (11 - 7) Lost to Auburn and Kentucky based on round-robin record.
      4. Georgia (10 - 8) Defeated Alabama and Tennessee based on round-robin record.
      5. Alabama (10 - 8) Defeated Tennessee and lost to Georgia based on round-robin record.
      6. Tennessee (10 - 8) Lost to Georgia and Alabama based on round-robin record.
      7. Florida (9 - 9) Defeated Vanderbilt based on record against #1 teams.
      8. Vanderbilt (9 - 9) Lost to Florida based on record against #1 teams.
      9. Louisiana State (8 - 10) Defeated Missouri and Texas A&M based on round-robin record.
      10. Missouri (8 - 10) Defeated Texas A&M and lost to Louisiana State based on round-robin record.
      11. Texas A&M (8 - 10) Lost to Louisiana State and Missouri based on round-robin record.
      12. Mississippi (7 - 11) Defeated South Carolina and Mississippi State based on round-robin record.
      13. South Carolina (7 - 11) Defeated Mississippi State and lost to Mississippi based on round-robin record.
      14. Mississippi State (7 - 11) Lost to Mississippi and South Carolina based on round-robin record.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR -
      If you just leave it alone, they show Kentucky at 9-9 getting the # 8 seed, with Auburn and Tennessee each winning the SEC regular season championship.

      If Kentucky goes 4-1 and beats Arkansas, we get the # 5 seed. Really can't see us going 5-0, but if we do, we'd get the # 4 seed, based on that projection.
    1. Catfan73's Avatar
      Catfan73 -
      I have this unshakable fear that we're going to finish out 1-4. Hopefully I'll feel better after this afternoon.
    1. dtalbersjr's Avatar
      dtalbersjr -
      Other than Arkansas winning, today could not have gone better for us. Cats win, Mizzou loses and UF loses. (And UT losing doesn’t really affect us, but is always good).

      We’re now 1 game back of what is a 4 way tie for 3rd. And we play 3 of the 4 teams that are tied for 3rd. Still probably need to win out or get a ton of help to get a top 4 seed in the SECT, but today was a good start.
    1. Doc's Avatar
      Doc -
      Looking at the schedule....look for UK to pick up a game on everybody the week of Feb 27/28. UK hosts OL Miss while everybody ahead is on the road (FL at Bama, TN at MSU, MO at Vandy, AU at ARK, LSU at SC and aTm at GA). Several teams ahead of us lose that week.
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