Willis, Hawkins on "normal" career path

[kingcat]

Or, it could be that the star player is higher ranking because he's a better player than the lower ranked kid... and that comes out during practice and games... and Cal makes the decision to play the better player over the other guy..

Certainly. My point is only this, if a high school phenom and one you are counting on tremendously comes into college struggling to adjust, and you find a kid like Willis is actually playing better in practice.
Do you play the better player or the player with what you view as having the most potential, and who is key to your hopes?

That is the dilemma kids like Hawkins and Willis face. They must clearly show equal potential to these 5 star kids coming in to beat them out or else be much the better player.
Bottomline, Cal cannot readily afford for a kid highly ranked to lose his spot in the rotation to an unheralded player.

Development means little to major high school recruits. They most all consider themselves NBA first rounders, preparing to become lottery picks.
Not high school kids preparing to be good college players.

[Krank]

And Krank, sorry on misunderstanding your position.

Not a problem, Philly. It was an understandable, ummm, misunderstanding. Understood?

[Krank]

But was he on a career path to the NBA, the same as he is today? Absolutely, positively. People here like to pretend the NBA are a bunch of raving lunatics. They draft based upon whatever shiny, dazzling object runs in front of their face. Do they draft on "potential?" Certainly. Do they miss sometimes? Absolutely.

Darrell, I have really enjoyed your arguments on this thread and the post I took this from, in particular, but the part quoted above, for whatever reason, just tickled me so much, particularly the bolded part, I suppose because it struck me as so on the money.

I think where some folks here have argued against how the league drafts have been correct is to contend that certain franchises seem to be in the lottery a lot and that it has sometimes been due to bad GM work and/or coaching, but my personal belief is that the greatest experts on pro basketball talent have been working for the league for a long time. It's one of the reasons they have made SO much money over the years. I think they get things right a LOT, and probably a lot more than, say baseball or football does. JMO.

[ajp40505]

Good thread. Darrell, I get what you are saying about Darius Miller. I happen to think he was an aberration, not the norm, but we have a very small sample size, so anything either one of us says is probably more subjective intuition than objective analysis.

The difference in Wiltjer and Willis is that Kyle got to play significant minutes due the roster situation and Willis has not gotten to play. I think Willis has better basketball skills than Wiltjer because he's more athletic and thus quicker. Wiltjer is thriving at Gonzaga just like I think Willis would thrive at many other schools in the country. So the question is - what's best for the kid. Sit on the bench and practice against future NBA players or go someplace where you can the the focus of a good team and have the offense run through you. I contend that Wiltjer's experience at Gonzaga is far superior to what he would have gotten under Cal had he stayed here. There's more to life than getting drafted by a NBA team. We both agree that he would be drafted either way. This isn't a big fish in a small pond argument because Gonzaga is not chicken soup. They are on national tv, they have terrific seasons, and they advance in the NCAA. They didn't make it all the way to the end, but I'll remind you we didn't either.

You said: "Now, you say he wouldn't be playing 6 minutes a game. I think that's hogwash, unless he put himself in a doghouse with John Calipari. Not because of his talent. Not because of his age, looks, height, or competition, but because of his work ethic, attitude, or anything else that he did."

We can argue about how many minutes Wiltjer would have gotten this past season, but that's not the point. The question is whether he's better off at Gonzaga than he would have been here. You're discounting that Wiltjer and his dad had the good sense to realize that he was a bad fit at UK under Cal and I think 99% of folks in tune with college basketball would say there's no question he was a bad fit, just like I think Willis is a bad fit, not because Willis isn't athletic enough to play for Cal, but rather because he's a kid that needs to develop to be a good college basketball player and Cal is not going to play the kid enough to allow him to develop.

Your argument is that fewer minutes by Wiltjer would have been a result of his poor work ethic, but you are discounting his competition for playing time. The conventional wisdom is that Wiltjer would have played significantly fewer minutes in 2014 had he stayed here because of the class of freshmen Cal had coming in. Wiltjer saw the handwriting on the wall and left.

Let's take Frank Kaminski as an example of what I'm saying. Kaminski went from averaging 4 or 5 points a game his freshman and sophomore years to his senior year when he was the college player of the year. Had he made the horrible mistake of coming to UK he would have never gotten the chance to develop into the player he became. He would have been sitting on the bench watching Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, and Karl Anthony Towns play.

You said: "So don't get confused. I haven't suggested Derek Willis will succeed. I have suggested--and I'm very confident in this--talent will succeed at Kentucky under John Calipari. And it may be "four year talent."

You say talent will succeed at UK under Cal and I say it will not succeed if it doesn't get the opportunity to develop. Every kid that comes to UK can play professional basketball somewhere in the world. That's not the issue. Cal says Willis and Dom are on normal career paths at UK. Willis did not play one significant minute his sophomore year. Let see how many he gets to play his junior year. If we don't get Murray he will play far more than he would if Murray comes because Cal won't have any choice - he will have to play the kid.

[Darrell KSR]

Good thread. Darrell, I get what you are saying about Darius Miller. I happen to think he was an aberration, not the norm, but we have a very small sample size, so anything either one of us says is probably more subjective intuition than objective analysis.

No doubt about that. With Cal, it will probably always be that way, too

[Bakert]

Bakert said: "I see no reason why, if they are as good as many think, Willis and Dom can't play meaningful minutes in their final two seasons."

Here's why: An key cog in Cal's wildly successful recruiting strategy is to showcase his fast-track NBA incoming players. Cal is going to play those guys because it leads to him being able to recruit the next wave of phenoms. I bet Willis and Dom do not play meaningful minutes in their final two seasons for that reason.

But you are making an assumption that the new guys will be significantly better. They may or may not be. Let's say for the sake of argument that Charles Matthews comes in and is not as good as what we can get from Dom - who do you play? Cal's strategy should be based on getting guys to the NBA. Granted, it's mostly about doing it in one year, but I've never heard Cal talk about how many OADs he sends to the draft, but rather how many players he sends to the draft. I truly believe that Cal would be happiest if guys stayed three years, graduated, and were lottery picks.

But back to the original point. If the new guys are better than Willis/Dom, they will play and deservedly so. But while Cal may not talk about it as loudly as we would like, I still believe winning at UK is something he is very committed to doing. And that implies playing the best players. I know someone is going to bring up 2013, but in that case he simply didn't have guys on the bench to bring in. The drop off was much greater than it might be between one of the freshman and Willis/Dom

And please remember, I've probably been loudest about not understanding the hue and cry for Willis getting playing time. I've yet to see why he would deserve it and he may not this year or the next. But I hope for his sake and for UK's that he does, although to be clear I hope it's because he has improved enough to deserve it rather than us simply not having any other options (e.g., Jared Polson).

[Philly Cat]

Note also that, on the most important stage, Cal was not afraid to play Hawkins where Hawkins was better at a particular skill than any other player we could use-- namely, perimeter defense on Russ Smith & Stauskas in the 2014 NCAA tourney run. Heck, we basically played 4-on-5 against those teams on offense just because Hawkins was that much better than all the OADs at perimeter defense.

That move has always proved to me that Cal will give the KY kids a chance, if they have the talent to compete. I attributed the drop-off in playing time for Willis/Hawkins last year to a simple numbers game-- there were too many, better players ahead of them in the rotation. Nothing more, nothing less.

[MickintheHam]

Note also that, on the most important stage, Cal was not afraid to play Hawkins where Hawkins was better at a particular skill than any other player we could use-- namely, perimeter defense on Russ Smith & Stauskas in the 2014 NCAA tourney run. Heck, we basically played 4-on-5 against those teams on offense just because Hawkins was that much better than all the OADs at perimeter defense.

That move has always proved to me that Cal will give the KY kids a chance, if they have the talent to compete. I attributed the drop-off in playing time for Willis/Hawkins last year to a simple numbers game-- there were too many, better players ahead of them in the rotation. Nothing more, nothing less.

And it very well could be that is the case in 2015-16 as well. Only if one of these two guys can show the leadership, skill and heads up play that Darius exhibited, will they play. A senior who has played a lot can add a lot to a team. That's what Darius did. A junior who has reasonably good skills who has played very little may not have a thing to offer. It will take a deep rotation to get these guys on the court. I'm not sure it will happen.

[ajp40505]

And it very well could be that is the case in 2015-16 as well. Only if one of these two guys can show the leadership, skill and heads up play that Darius exhibited, will they play. A senior who has played a lot can add a lot to a team. That's what Darius did. A junior who has reasonably good skills who has played very little may not have a thing to offer. It will take a deep rotation to get these guys on the court. I'm not sure it will happen.

You're right Mick. Although Willis is a junior scholastically, he's probably a mid-term freshman in terms of his experience.

[jazyd]

And it very well could be that is the case in 2015-16 as well. Only if one of these two guys can show the leadership, skill and heads up play that Darius exhibited, will they play. A senior who has played a lot can add a lot to a team. That's what Darius did. A junior who has reasonably good skills who has played very little may not have a thing to offer. It will take a deep rotation to get these guys on the court. I'm not sure it will happen.

Mick, I think Willis has the better chance of the two, we just don't have enough bodies up front for him to sit all the time. Hawkins is a different story, he is still 6' will weak ball handling skills, weak outside jumper unless he improves tremendously, and has 4 much bigger and better players in front of him for two spots because he can't play the 3.

[MickintheHam]

Mick, I think Willis has the better chance of the two, we just don't have enough bodies up front for him to sit all the time. Hawkins is a different story, he is still 6' will weak ball handling skills, weak outside jumper unless he improves tremendously, and has 4 much bigger and better players in front of him for two spots because he can't play the 3.

Up to now his chances have not been better. Unless there is major change with Willis this off season, the best place for him is sitting next to the walk-ons.