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  • Lunardi on Kentucky, NCAA bracket

    By: LARRY VAUGHT

    ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi went on record before Southeastern Conference play started that he didn’t think Kentucky would go unbeaten.

    “Not only saying that they would lose, but that they would lose multiple times before the tournament. Not because I think they are fatally flawed in any way, but because I think that it’s just really hard to win every road game in any league,” said Lunardi during a national conference call Tuesday. “I mean, it almost never happens for a reason. Division I teams lose 70 percent of their road games for a season, and it’s because it’s really hard to win game after game after game after game on the road.”

    Instead, UK swept 18 SEC games to push its record to 31-0 going into Friday afternoon’s SEC Tournament opener in Nashville against either Florida or Alabama.

    “What I’m seeing is a team whose offense has not just begun but is well on the way to catching up with its defense. Like to me, Kentucky is way better than they were, four, five, six weeks ago, and they are a whole lot more unbeatable now, to my eyes than they were then,” Lunardi said.

    He says what UK has done to stay unbeaten is remarkable.

    “Being able to survive a one‑possession game at LSU, being able to win every time they are in overtime; being able to have a finishing kick every time they are in a four or five‑minute game. And I think that makes them an even more overwhelming favorite for March than where they were four to six weeks ago and I think it’s mostly because of their increased efficiency at the offensive end,” Lunardi said.

    “It also helps that when you’re in a one‑possession game like they were at LSU and they are a rebound away from winning or losing; to have a couple seven‑footers on the floor, because sometimes tall people get to those balls better than short people.”

    Lunardi still has Kentucky has the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region with Wisconsin, a Final Four team last year and Big Ten champion, as the No. 2 seed in the same region.

    “I wouldn’t use the word confident that they will be in the same region. I would simply say that if Wisconsin is on the two line, and Kentucky is on the one line, which is where I have them now, then it’s extremely likely that they will be in the same region. Not because of anything other than geographic procedure that the (selection) committee has established,” Lunardi said.

    “If Wisconsin moves up to the one line, which can obviously happen here, then we are talking about a different story. But if Kentucky is a one and Wisconsin is a two, then that’s how it’s going to be because that’s the way the rules are written now. It’s not my rule. It’s not your rule, and it’s certainly not Wisconsin’s rule. But that’s simply the precedent that’s been established, and if we know one thing about the committee, they do tend to follow their own rules pretty well.”
    No Murray: Lunardi said he did not see Ohio Valley Conference champion Murray State receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA after losing in the OVC tourney final to Belmont on a last-second 3-point shot.

    “The more I think about it, the more I think they are not going to make the tournament. I just don’t know how the committee can get up and preach the quality wins mantra, and then leave out teams with multiple wins over tournament teams,” Lunardi said.

    “I’m looking at still a non‑conference schedule number of Murray in the 230s. That’s independent of their league schedule. And that’s the same argument that we are making about the Purdue or a Miami, and those teams have beaten teams like Duke, and Murray has not. So no, I’m not seeing that they will make it.”
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