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  • Things to watch for: Armageddon Edition

    By: Tyler Adkins

    For the second time in three years, the Bluegrass Battle will be played out in the NCAA tournament. The most intense rivalry in America, sorry Duke/UNC, is going to be watched by millions across the world. The two coaches do not like each other no matter what they say. The players do not like each other. The fans hate each other. Rick Pitino is 11-0 in Sweet 16's. John Calipari is 5-1 against Pitino since he came to UK and is looking for his 4th Elite Eight in 5 years at UK. Enough of a primer? I thought so.

    With that, let's get to the things to watch for:

    *Julius Randle

    Randle looked to be unstoppable against Louisville in the first match-up, until cramps stopped him. Randle played almost none in the second half of the UK win in December after dropping 17 points in the first half. If Randle gets going, there is no one who can stop him except possibly Harrell. Harrell is the key for Louisville. He has to stay out of foul trouble because after him there is a major drop off in talent and ability in the front court. Randle playing great forced him into foul trouble in the first game and allowed UK to coast without UK's best player for a half. Randle needs to be aggressive from the tip and either force Harrell into foul trouble or dominate the game because he is backing off. I am looking for 15-12 from Randle.

    *Handle the press

    Everyone talks about the Louisville press causing problems for UK; but no one really talks about why it didn't cause problems when they played in December. The reason is simple: for the big UK guards, it is like being pressured by quick middle-school kids. The UK guards are 6-6 and above, the UL guards are 5-11 and below. That is at minimum at 7 inch difference in height per man, and more in some cases. UK was able to see over the traps in December and find the open man, and I expect to see them do the same tonight. The problem is if they try to dribble through the press. UL is too quick to try to dribble through the press with the UK guards. If UK passes the ball well on the press you should see another low turnover night again from UK. I am looking for 10 turnovers or less.

    *Lock up Luke

    Luke Hancock is the reigning Final Four MVP and is a great shooter, but, he is not a very good player unless a team leaves him wide open on the perimeter. Simply put, Luke is not a threat to beat any of our guards off the dribble and cannot create his own shot. If he is hounded on the perimeter and not given open looks, he will be a non-factor in this game and that will completely stymie the Louisville offense. Its offense is already limited to mainly guard production and Harrell: take away Hancock and there are not many options left. I am looking for Hancock to have 8 or fewer points.

    That is all for today. As always, Go Big Blue.
    Comments 13 Comments
    1. Philly Cat's Avatar
      Philly Cat -
      Honest question, because I refuse to watch Louisville unless I have to -- can Hancock do ANYTHING other than shoot 3's? Anyone who sags on him should be immediately yanked from the game, right? If he's more than a one-trick pony, please tell me so I can save my screams tonight for some other miscue.
    1. badrose's Avatar
      badrose -
      The dynamics seem good but the results seem overstated. If Hancock has 8 or fewer it would be over at halftime. I'd take that but braced for a bit closer game.
    1. bigsky's Avatar
      bigsky -
      Take care of the ball, make our free throws, hit a reasonable % from the outside and we win.
    1. Rock Hard Ten's Avatar
      Rock Hard Ten -
      Quote Originally Posted by Philly Cat View Post
      Honest question, because I refuse to watch Louisville unless I have to -- can Hancock do ANYTHING other than shoot 3's? Anyone who sags on him should be immediately yanked from the game, right? If he's more than a one-trick pony, please tell me so I can save my screams tonight for some other miscue.
      He is sneaky good on the press and just lurking……this is greatly enhanced if the refs are allowing lots of hacking and body checking….imho, he is a sneaky thug….the worst kind…..he is also very arrogant quite easy to dislike
    1. Krank's Avatar
      Krank -
      Great write-up, Tyler.

      I will only add one thing... Russ Smith. HE is honestly my most consistent concern. If he goes off, plays like he can't be guarded, then anything can happen. Otherwise, they have few advantages from what my eyes have watched lately.
    1. tyleradkins's Avatar
      tyleradkins -
      I agree Krank. The reason I did not even mention him is that I assume he will go off for 25 or so regardless tonight. As always, I am a firm believer of letting the star "get his" but make it difficult, then shut down everyone else. IE Hancock.
    1. Carolinawildcats's Avatar
      Carolinawildcats -
      So who handles Luke? One of my match up concerns !!!

      Peace

      Richard (CW)
    1. Krank's Avatar
      Krank -
      Quote Originally Posted by tyleradkins View Post
      I agree Krank. The reason I did not even mention him is that I assume he will go off for 25 or so regardless tonight. As always, I am a firm believer of letting the star "get his" but make it difficult, then shut down everyone else. IE Hancock.
      Agreed. I will be frustrated if they don't stick to LH like glue tonight.

      BIG BLUE GLUE GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!
    1. Krank's Avatar
      Krank -
      Quote Originally Posted by Carolinawildcats View Post
      So who handles Luke? One of my match up concerns !!!

      Peace

      Richard (CW)
      Well, they will switch all over him like they do with everyone, right?

      Outside of that, Young and or "pick your twin" could be used to focus on him more specifically. I like to think that Randle and WCS will have their share of wingspanning his potential shot arc from his fingers, but they can't sleep on his little fakes. Both Smith and Hancock have enough variety of head and body fakes to take advantage of any complacency. I still say Young is most likely to get the most minutes on Hancock, yet Poythress might too since LH and AP both come off the bench.
    1. catmanjack's Avatar
      catmanjack -
      Question is who does Luke guard? That is the guy that needs to
      drive on him and try to get the fouls.
      Also do the refs allow the reaching and grabbing when
      UL does try to press.
      Foul trouble could be big.
    1. tyleradkins's Avatar
      tyleradkins -
      As someone said, expect UK to switch everything up top and it will not matter who is on who as long as everyone on the perimeter is guarded. But, I would expect Aaron Harrison to be on Hancock mostly.
    1. snoopcat's Avatar
      snoopcat -
      Let me start by saying Hancock is the player I hate most. Just seems to rub me the wrong way. With that said he is a smart heady player that is borderline cheap bush league. He uses his off arm when driving to create space. So hoping they call that push on him. If not our guys need to smart and not fall for all his fakes.
    1. snoopcat's Avatar
      snoopcat -
      Quote Originally Posted by bigsky View Post
      Take care of the ball, make our free throws, hit a reasonable % from the outside and we win.
      This^
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