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  • Things to watch for: Texas A&M Edition

    by
    tyleradkins
    Published on 01-21-2014 12:56 PM
    9 Comments Comments
    By: TYLER ADKINS



    After going 1-1 last week, UK looks to get this week off to a good start with a match-up against Texas A&M tonight. Last year, the Aggies pulled off the upset in Rupp Arena and are still one of only two teams to beat Calipari in Rupp. The Aggies have been bad this season but did beat Tennessee on the road and beat Arkansas (albeit at home). The Cats can put this one to bed early if they show up to play. With that, let's get to the things to watch for:

    *Pep in their Step

    A lot of time this season UK has looked lost to start games and dug holes for themselves that took a while from which to escape. It seems to have become worse lately as the Wildcats consistently look flat and uninterested until they are down and Calipari has to call a quick timeout. At some point, this team has to come out playing with fire and put a team down and out early. This is a game to do it. A&M struggles to score the ball and if UK can ratchet up the intensity early, they could route A&M from the beginning. I am looking for UK to FINALLY have a lead at the first TV timeout tonight.

    *Cauley-Stein

    The last two games have been the worst of the season for WCS and the reason has been simple: physical play. WCS is a big that does not like contact and it has shown the past two games. He has to assert himself in this game from the beginning. With Willie, it has always been defense that has been his calling card and he needs to get it going to reignite the fire. I am looking for WCS to have four blocks and at least one steal tonight to reassert his dominance.

    *Stop Jamal Jones

    A&M has only one guy that is a double figure scorer, and that is Jamal Jones. Jones is 6-8 and shoots 39% from three point land so it will be imperative to stop him tonight. As with most team's leading scorer, if UK can put the clamps on Jones in the first half, I do not think A&M has the balance on offense to stay with the Cats. I am looking for UK to hold Jones to eight or less in the first half.

    That's all for today. Go Big Blue.
    1. Categories:
    2. Basketball
    Comments 9 Comments
    1. Doc's Avatar
      Doc - 01-21-2014, 12:47 PM
      *The scoreboard - because its going to be changing quickly.
    1. KSRBEvans's Avatar
      KSRBEvans - 01-21-2014, 12:57 PM
      A&M has a puncher's chance if it lights it up from 3, as it's been doing during conference play (.441 from 3 in 4 SEC games). In SEC play, UK's leading the conference in 3-pt FG% D* at 26% allowed. Hopefully that will continue (and UK will shore up its 2-pt D, as discussed in another thread).




      *--If you believe in such a thing. Some don't.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR - 01-21-2014, 01:16 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by KSRBEvans View Post
      A&M has a puncher's chance if it lights it up from 3, as it's been doing during conference play (.441 from 3 in 4 SEC games). In SEC play, UK's leading the conference in 3-pt FG% D* at 26% allowed. Hopefully that will continue (and UK will shore up its 2-pt D, as discussed in another thread).




      *--If you believe in such a thing. Some don't.
      I remember when you (I think it was you) first posted Ken Pomeroy's position on that, and I was skeptical. But then when I read what he had to say--as always, well-supported--it sorta made sense.

      I like his theory--if teams find it more difficult to have good 2-point field goal attempts, they are likely to take riskier 3-point field goal attempts. Well, that's only part of it. I'll excerpt his conclusion here (it's a fascinating read, so please click BEvan's link provided):

      - The offense is largely in control of the quality of 3-point shots it takes.
      - These decisions are affected by the quality of the opposing 2P% defense
      - 3P% is also influenced by effective challenging of shots.
      - All of that can add up to about a 3% swing from average.
      - So 3P% defense is not totally random
      - But a defense has considerably more direct impact on 2P% than 3P%.
    1. KSRBEvans's Avatar
      KSRBEvans - 01-21-2014, 01:20 PM
      ^That's what I always liked about Cal's approach. He wants to make it very difficult to take a 2 while not completely conceding the 3, either. I think that approach is sounder than the reverse.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR - 01-21-2014, 01:26 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by KSRBEvans View Post
      ^That's what I always liked about Cal's approach. He wants to make it very difficult to take a 2 while not completely conceding the 3, either. I think that approach is sounder than the reverse.
      I do, too. Focus first on 2-point defense, then 3-point, conceding neither. Defense in-then-outward.
    1. MickintheHam's Avatar
      MickintheHam - 01-21-2014, 02:09 PM
      Tyler, I always appreciate your analysis. Time to put a boot on the Aggies throat and not let up.
    1. Padukacat's Avatar
      Padukacat - 01-21-2014, 02:15 PM
      Yeah but they only have one Jamal, we have...like 12 Jamal's. Jamal Harrison twins, Jamal young, Jamal cauley stein, Jamal poythress, and Jamal randle just to name a few.
    1. LakeCat's Avatar
      LakeCat - 01-21-2014, 02:26 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
      I do, too. Focus first on 2-point defense, then 3-point, conceding neither. Defense in-then-outward.
      Did you just. Say ball line defense. Lol
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR - 01-21-2014, 02:37 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by LakeCat View Post
      Did you just. Say ball line defense. Lol
      Shhh....there are certain hot button words that sometimes connote the wrong meaning.

      (but I guess, maybe, sorta....)

      Truth is, most teams play a form of ball-line defense. The key is how far away you play the skip pass recipient. We went from Rick Pitino, who emphasized deflections, and closer to the passing lane for the skip pass recipient, to Tubby Smith, who did not emphasize it as much (if at all). It was a big change, and one that many people believed was not in UK's best interests.

      I'm going to skip the BCG era, because I'm never really sure what we did there, and fast forward to John Calipari. Calipari does it a lot like Tubby, except with better athletes. My position would be that I'd like him to migrate--a little, perhaps--to more like Rick, although I am, generally, happy with what he's doing forcusing inside then out. But I acknowledge my own internal inconsistency, as I bang the drum for a lack of steals, which would likely be enhanced with a deflection/passing lane emphasis.

      Bascially, I want it all. But I am a UK fan, so I think I am entitled.

      See what you did! lol.

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