There is a huge increase in free throw shooting this year, logically due to an emphasis on enforcing fouling rules that had not been enforced before.
Last year's # 1 team averaged 26.4 free throws attempted per game. This year Kentucky leads the nation at 35.3 free throws per game, a huge jump.
I randomly chose # 10, 20 and 40, and there's a significant increase at each number from last year.
10. 24.6 (2012-13); 31.5 (2013-14)
20. 23.8 (2012-13); 30.4 (2013-14)
40. 22.6 (2012-13); 28.9 (2013-14)
Will that continue? I hope not. I hope teams adjust and begin playing better basketball without fouling. I don't have any recent (e.g., last 3 games) numbers to see if there is any adjustment, but it would be interesting. At a minimum, will check this in 3 or 4 more weeks and see if the numbers this year have changed any.
Kentucky is hitting 67.0% of their FTs, which is an improvement from last year's 64.0% but still below the NCAA median of 69.4%. But if we suddenly improved to "top 20% of all teams" in shooting free throws, at # 50 we'd be hitting a pretty stellar 73.2%. But even with the team shooting the most free throws in the nation, it would only add 2 points a game to our score.
My thoughts here? It's not "free throw shooting" that's the problem. It's the mental psyche to make the important free throws that is the problem. We hit 67% in every game this year, including the important ones, we're good. But we can't hit 50-55% in "big" games and 75% in "little" games and be happy with the overall average.
It reminds me of a joke I like to tell. Three statisticians went duck hunting. One of them shot and missed the duck, leading him just a little too much. The second statistician shot, and missed the duck, trailing him just a little behind. The third statistician put his gun up happy, because on average, they had shot the duck.
We need to hit the duck.
Kudos to you if you stayed the course and finished it. Shame on you if you do it again
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