Having trouble getting registered or subscribing? Email us at info@kysportsreport.com or Private Message CitizenBBN and we'll get you set up!

  • Kentucky needs to hit the duck

    by
    Darrell KSR
    Published on 12-08-2013 01:59 PM
    1 Comment Comments


    There is a huge increase in free throw shooting this year, logically due to an emphasis on enforcing fouling rules that had not been enforced before.

    Last year's # 1 team averaged 26.4 free throws attempted per game. This year Kentucky leads the nation at 35.3 free throws per game, a huge jump.

    I randomly chose # 10, 20 and 40, and there's a significant increase at each number from last year.

    10. 24.6 (2012-13); 31.5 (2013-14)
    20. 23.8 (2012-13); 30.4 (2013-14)
    40. 22.6 (2012-13); 28.9 (2013-14)

    Will that continue? I hope not. I hope teams adjust and begin playing better basketball without fouling. I don't have any recent (e.g., last 3 games) numbers to see if there is any adjustment, but it would be interesting. At a minimum, will check this in 3 or 4 more weeks and see if the numbers this year have changed any.

    Kentucky is hitting 67.0% of their FTs, which is an improvement from last year's 64.0% but still below the NCAA median of 69.4%. But if we suddenly improved to "top 20% of all teams" in shooting free throws, at # 50 we'd be hitting a pretty stellar 73.2%. But even with the team shooting the most free throws in the nation, it would only add 2 points a game to our score.

    My thoughts here? It's not "free throw shooting" that's the problem. It's the mental psyche to make the important free throws that is the problem. We hit 67% in every game this year, including the important ones, we're good. But we can't hit 50-55% in "big" games and 75% in "little" games and be happy with the overall average.

    It reminds me of a joke I like to tell. Three statisticians went duck hunting. One of them shot and missed the duck, leading him just a little too much. The second statistician shot, and missed the duck, trailing him just a little behind. The third statistician put his gun up happy, because on average, they had shot the duck.

    We need to hit the duck.

    Kudos to you if you stayed the course and finished it. Shame on you if you do it again .
    1. Categories:
    2. Basketball
    Comments 18 Comments
    1. KeithKSR's Avatar
      KeithKSR - 12-08-2013, 01:59 PM
      FT shooting cost us the game Friday night, Saturday morning.
    1. ajp40505's Avatar
      ajp40505 - 12-09-2013, 06:42 AM
      Well said, Darrell. Thanks for the early morning chuckle.
    1. jazyd's Avatar
      jazyd - 12-09-2013, 08:52 AM
      Darrell, if I remember correctly the 2012 team shot ft's down the stretch in the big games very well. They may have mussed a few early in the game but not late in the game, and I mean all 6 of them including TJ. Mental toughness
    1. blueboss's Avatar
      blueboss - 12-09-2013, 11:56 AM
      Find the nail and hit the duck!!!


      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    1. StuBleedsBlue2's Avatar
      StuBleedsBlue2 - 12-09-2013, 12:09 PM
      Excellent analysis. Comes down to a mentality to win. When people are capable of doing what needs to be done to win, it's mental. How is this going to be fixed?
    1. blueboss's Avatar
      blueboss - 12-09-2013, 08:17 PM
      We missed our first six free throws, with these guys throwing up 100 each in practice (and Cal mentioned in the presser that some are doing just that...throwing them up so they can be done) when they see the first six not go down they're already dejected and their young confidence takes a hit right out of the gate.
    1. CitizenBBN's Avatar
      CitizenBBN - 12-09-2013, 08:53 PM
      It's definitely about hitting them in the big games. In MOST games the difference between 75% and 60% (pick 2 numbers) won't make a difference in outcome, but in the big games you need to be able to hit them.

      Even hitting consistently though would help. We were 12-23 at Baylor, 52%. To "win the game" with 6 more points we'd need to be 18-23 for 78%, but we fouled down the stretch ,etc. Just hit our 67% and it's 3-4 more points, more than enough to change the dynamic of the finish of the game.

      What we absolutely cannot do is what we've done in both losses, go to the line and shoot 50% in a big game. You won't win many big games doing that.

      now we need to rebound as well, and do other things, but free throws bug me in particular b/c this is something that is NOT a surprise to incoming freshmen. It's been the same shot since middle school or earlier for them, there's no surprise they can be key in close games at the end, you can work on them on your own at any time. It's as fundamental and ubiquitous as dribbling. You should walk into college at this level a 70% shooter or better and be able to do it on demand.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR - 12-10-2013, 08:02 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by CitizenBBN View Post
      It's definitely about hitting them in the big games. In MOST games the difference between 75% and 60% (pick 2 numbers) won't make a difference in outcome, but in the big games you need to be able to hit them.

      Even hitting consistently though would help. We were 12-23 at Baylor, 52%. To "win the game" with 6 more points we'd need to be 18-23 for 78%, but we fouled down the stretch ,etc. Just hit our 67% and it's 3-4 more points, more than enough to change the dynamic of the finish of the game.

      What we absolutely cannot do is what we've done in both losses, go to the line and shoot 50% in a big game. You won't win many big games doing that.

      now we need to rebound as well, and do other things, but free throws bug me in particular b/c this is something that is NOT a surprise to incoming freshmen. It's been the same shot since middle school or earlier for them, there's no surprise they can be key in close games at the end, you can work on them on your own at any time. It's as fundamental and ubiquitous as dribbling. You should walk into college at this level a 70% shooter or better and be able to do it on demand.
      It is probably unfair, but I always think back about WWJD--what would John (Wall) do? Everybody remembers the game-winning jumper against Miami (O) in his inaugural game. But how many remember that he went 8-8 from the FT line in an overtime win against Stanford? Made two FTs with 2 seconds to play in regulation to tie the game? Granted, he was a pretty good free throw shooter at 75%, but even moreso, he "hit the duck."

      100%? No. But he had the winner's psyche; the mentality, desire and drive to win, not just the 2:00 game, but all games.
    1. bigsky's Avatar
      bigsky - 12-10-2013, 08:47 AM
      Went up and blocked a shot for the win vs (UCON maybe?). Just pulled it out of the air. Like the AD block vs UNC, just an unreal #1 player play. John Wall tee shirt had him Superman. These new guys if they played 2 or 3 years would be very good. But we don't have anyone like those two.
    1. Dokker's Avatar
      Dokker - 12-10-2013, 09:59 AM
      The 50% is bad, but Citizen's comment about consistency is spot on too. We walk to the line way too often and don't go 1-2... we go 0-2. James Young's 2 missed FTs late against Baylor were killer in my opinion. You just can't go up there and miss them both.
    1. Padukacat's Avatar
      Padukacat - 12-10-2013, 10:08 AM
      You see cuz dunk on dirk last night?...that's a beast. We don't have mentally strong guys we have soft guys. Cal got away from the hood and our GPa went up and wins went down.
    1. bigsky's Avatar
      bigsky - 12-10-2013, 12:03 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Padukacat View Post
      You see cuz dunk on dirk last night?...that's a beast. We don't have mentally strong guys we have soft guys. Cal got away from the hood and our GPa went up and wins went down.
      pretty tough way to put it, but yep.
    1. badrose's Avatar
      badrose - 12-10-2013, 12:18 PM
      Tremendous insight there. Can't we get a little of both?
    1. ShoesSwayedBlue's Avatar
      ShoesSwayedBlue - 12-10-2013, 02:35 PM
      I don't really believe that Cal feels as though he has much choice but to stay away from the hood as much as possible. I'm sure that he knows that he dodged a bullet with the Bledsoe grades deal and if that didn't convince him, getting shot right in the crotch on the Kanter deal surely did. I'm still surprised that he went so hard after Bazz. He has practically ran away from Whitehead and did so with Vaughn until recently. Cut Alexander loose.

      There's no wiggle room for us with the NCAA. It's not fair but it's true.
    1. Padukacat's Avatar
      Padukacat - 12-10-2013, 04:07 PM
      ^You're right, Cal may have adjusted out of necessity, these guys are certainly not in the mold of what he was used to at Memphis and early UK years. Next year we have more high character guys coming in as well, lets hope they have some fight in them.
    1. Darrell KSR's Avatar
      Darrell KSR - 12-10-2013, 04:22 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Padukacat View Post
      You see cuz dunk on dirk last night?...that's a beast. We don't have mentally strong guys we have soft guys. Cal got away from the hood and our GPa went up and wins went down.
      John Wall had a 4.0 GPA at Kentucky. The two aren't even close to being usually exclusive. Some of the toughest s.o.b's I know were academic stars. Just saying.

      Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk
    1. Padukacat's Avatar
      Padukacat - 12-10-2013, 04:50 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
      John Wall had a 4.0 GPA at Kentucky. The two aren't even close to being usually exclusive. Some of the toughest s.o.b's I know were academic stars. Just saying.

      Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk
      I'm not saying that kids from the Hood can't be smart....im saying kids NOT from the Hood may not be as tough.
    1. blueboss's Avatar
      blueboss - 12-10-2013, 06:22 PM
      Quote Originally Posted by Padukacat View Post
      You see cuz dunk on dirk last night?...that's a beast. We don't have mentally strong guys we have soft guys. Cal got away from the hood and our GPa went up and wins went down.
      Quote Originally Posted by Darrell KSR View Post
      John Wall had a 4.0 GPA at Kentucky. The two aren't even close to being usually exclusive. Some of the toughest s.o.b's I know were academic stars. Just saying.

      Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk
      Cuz was going up pretty soft in his first five six games at Ky, used to drive Cal nuts that he wasn't going up and slam'n on every put back.

  • KSR Twitter Feed