WCS tweet

[Jeeepcat]

☆TheFr3shPrinc3☆ ‏@WCS15timefor9 (https://twitter.com/WCS15timefor9) 18m (https://twitter.com/WCS15timefor9/status/316963473974235136)Aight people needa chill with the whole one more year thing lol I get it...







SMH

....our dear fans

[akaukswoosh]

Now he'll get 10,000 more tweets asking if that means he's staying.

[KeithKSR]

Lol, I'm sure Willie appreciates the passion of UK fans wanting him here for one more year.

[BigBlueBrock]

WCS is the kinda player that shouldn't be on Twitter.

[LarryVaught1]

Still t hink Willie is gone. Too much for him to chance and turn down with family situation

[Doc]

Now he'll get 10,000 more tweets asking if that means he's staying.

Rather than tweet him can I just ask here?

[BigBlueBrock]

As I said: https://twitter.com/WCS15timefor9/status/316985279066030081

[golfmanky1982]

What is his family situation? I thought he didnt live with his parents at all? Just curious

[cattails]

Still t hink Willie is gone. Too much for him to chance and turn down with family situation


Think both bigs are gone and wish them nothing but the best. And it's not like Johnson and Lee leave us empty handed.

[Darrell KSR]

He's very slightly distancing himself from Kentucky. Talking in terms of "Kentucky fans" and not "our fans," and the tweets that seem to indicate people wanting him to stay are irritating him (need to chill post, etc.)

Indicates to me that he's leaving. Decent tea leaves, IMHO.

[suncat05]

He's very slightly distancing himself from Kentucky. Talking in terms of "Kentucky fans" and not "our fans," and the tweets that seem to indicate people wanting him to stay are irritating him (need to chill post, etc.)

Indicates to me that he's leaving. Decent tea leaves, IMHO.

That's how I read that as well. Hope we're wrong, but I don't think so after reading that.

[KeithKSR]

I wouldn't make too many predictions based on tweets from a kid tweeting to friends from multiple schools.

[ukpumacat]

I thought just his response immediately after the NIT game was evidence enough. He is gone imo.

[KeithKSR]

I thought just his response immediately after the NIT game was evidence enough. He is gone imo.

Willie is the kind of person that doesn't speak in definitive terms when his options should be evaluated. It was that way in his recruitment, which made him hard to read. Given that many of his friends are not UK fans it seems appropriate for him to say "Kentucky fans" instead of "our fans."

[Darrell KSR]

FWIW, Chad Ford thinks he is returning to UK.

[KeithKSR]

FWIW, Chad Ford thinks he is returning to UK.

It would be no surprise either way. I do think Willie's desire to play on a title winning team could play a big role.

Given a ride was not offered to Hawkins until recently I think we are going to be right at 13 counting Wiggins & Hawkins. That should provide some direction on making predictions. Larry saying Hood & Harrow will not be on scholarship provides added info.

[Terry Blue]

If he can go in top 15 as projected he'd be dumb to stay

[CitizenBBN]

If he can go in top 15 as projected he'd be dumb to stay

No, he wouldn't be. While there are arguments, the math says he's far from stupid to stay, and there are subjective factors in both directions which means it's neither stupid to go or stay. It's simply a decision one has to make for the things that matter to him and what the numbers say. The numbers say waiting a year isn't that big a deal and if you can move up your position just a couple of spots it actually makes you money even discounting the cash flows to get to apples and apples.

Most base that view on the math, but the math says below say #10 it's iffy, when you get to 20 if you have any decent chance of improving you come back. in the #15 range he can go either way, but if he can come back just #13 next year he makes money, and IMO he goes top 10 easily, which would mean a couple million dollars in NPV gain over just the 1st contract.

[CitizenBBN]

Still t hink Willie is gone. Too much for him to chance and turn down with family situation

Larry, can you elaborate? One conditional I've put in my posts is if he's in a situation like Eric's, where even waiting that year allows a level of hardship to persist that overwhelms things like improving one's draft stock.

My worry though is he has SO much to learn still about the game, it's a lot to throw at him and I have limited faith in some of the franchises to get him on the right track. In his case it's not just getting him down the track, he's still getting on one basketball wise.




WCS is the kinda player that shouldn't be on Twitter.


Definitely seems that way Brock. I've about worn out my sympathy for players/recruits of whatever school having negative reactions to twitter and message boards and such. It's the internet, lots of stupid people have access and there's nothing we can really do about them, so either a) don't get around them, or b) let it go.

My solution is (a). I don't hang out on other UK boards full of gits and morons. It would only frustrate me. I spend a little time on some other quasi-work related sites and I have the same standard there. Life's too short.

He seems way too sensitive to people tweeting at him or to his friends and teammates. If he can't see it as white noise, which is all it's worth, he needs to get away from it.

[dan_bgblue]

Here is a tid bit on his family situation. Not a lot but something. I am still looking for more.

Linkage (http://www.kentucky.com/2012/10/18/2376510/mark-story-for-uk-basketball-cauley.html)

Cauley-Stein was raised by his grandparents (Val and Norma Stein) in the tiny Kansas hamlet of Spearville (population: 773). It is a place so small, the local high school plays eight-man football.

Yet one could still aspire to big football dreams there. "Between eighth grade and my freshman year, my coach said I could potentially be a Division I quarterback," Cauley-Stein said. "When I heard that, I thought I might not even play basketball anymore."

At that time, after experiencing an Anthony Davis-like growth spurt, Cauley-Stein stood 6-6. "I was perfect (size), perfect for a quarterback," Cauley-Stein said. "I was thinking if I didn't play basketball, I could spend all my time in the weight room and work on quarterback stuff."

An older Spearville teammate convinced Cauley-Stein not to give up basketball by pointing out the school might have a chance to win a state title if he continued to play hoops.

Cauley-Stein stayed with basketball and continued to grow. Through AAU hoops, he became close with Shavon Shields, the son of ex-Chiefs All-Pro offensive lineman Will Shields. Eventually, Cauley-Stein's grandparents and mother, Marlene, agreed to allow him to move in with the Shields family in the Kansas City suburb of Olathe.

[cattails]

There's the sliding scale, you do the math. If he slides as low as 15-20 in this draft I think he needs to come back and work himself into the top 10 at least to make a big difference. So it is not so much that this year is a weak draft but his playing position could be short of 5's and he could move up based on that alone. Six of one half dozen another, depends on where he believes he will go based on information. If money and family is a driving force I think he would take the 20th pick and run for it.


7 $2,331,700

8 $2,136,100

9 $1,963,600

10 $1,865,300

11 $1,772,100

12 $1,683,500

13 $1,599,300

14 $1,519,400

15 $1,443,300

16 $1,371,200

17 $1,302,600

18 $1,302,600

19 $1,181,800

20 $1,134,500

[dan_bgblue]

More (http://espn.go.com/college-sports/recruiting/basketball/mens/story/_/id/7173879/willie-cauley-discovers-ok-stand-out)


The choice of Kentucky represents another sign of growth for Cauley, who has spent much of his life simply trying to blend in. Cauley stood out because of his height and his skin color in Spearville, Kan., population less than 800. Raised there by his white grandparents, Val and Norma Stein, Cauley said he didn't realize he was black or that he was tall.

Others noticed. They still do.

"It almost annoys me," Cauley said. "I'll be at the mall, and they always ask how tall I am or if I play basketball."

He began playing quarterback as a third-grader, and, as he grew to 6-6 at age 14, starred in basketball. Cauley joined the Mo-Kan Elite AAU squad, befriending Shavon Shields, son of Will Shields, the former Kansas City Chiefs great and 12-time Pro Bowl pick, and his wife, Senia.

After his sophomore season at Spearville High School, where Cauley played basketball and 8-man football, he moved 300 miles east to the K.C. suburbs to live with the Shields family.

Though he stayed close to his family across Kansas and his mother in Oklahoma, Cauley needed the structure Will and Senia Shields could help provide, particularly with his academics.

Without the move, Cauley likely would not have qualified to play major-college basketball. It also allowed him to spend more time with his AAU team, based in Kansas City, and gain exposure by playing at a larger high school.

"He's grown tremendously," said Senia Shields, who's sending Willie to Kentucky and Shavon to play basketball at Nebraska next year. "That next period of growth is to find that best fit, where he can mature and become a better basketball player."

Not even a year ago, Cauley said he was scared of Will Shields, the 40-year-old former offensive guard who played at 320 pounds and retired in 2006. Probably still is, Senia Shields said with a straight face

His mother, Marlene Stein, was the first to greet Willie after the victory Friday night. Several other family members attended the game.

Will and Senia stayed in the background. Coaches at Northwest said the family has kept a low profile, remarkable for Will considering his larger-than-life status around Kansas City.

No doubt, though, they've played a key role over the past year in all aspects of his life, including the recruiting process.

"I never had a father figure in my life," Cauley said. "He's a very wise dude."

[CitizenBBN]

There's the sliding scale, you do the math. If he slides as low as 15-20 in this draft I think he needs to come back and work himself into the top 10 at least to make a big difference. So it is not so much that this year is a weak draft but his playing position could be short of 5's and he could move up based on that alone. Six of one half dozen another, depends on where he believes he will go based on information. If money and family is a driving force I think he would take the 20th pick and run for it.


7 $2,331,700

8 $2,136,100

9 $1,963,600

10 $1,865,300

11 $1,772,100

12 $1,683,500

13 $1,599,300

14 $1,519,400

15 $1,443,300

16 $1,371,200

17 $1,302,600

18 $1,302,600

19 $1,181,800

20 $1,134,500


I did the math a week or so ago out of curiosity and to give us a baseline. If he goes 20 this year he has to only go #18 to be ahead on the 4 year contract and to #15 to be roughly equal over 10 years assuming both careers pan out brilliantly. If he goes to #15 from #20 he makes a little more than $1.2 million NPV for just the first 4 years of the contract. Even accounting for a big 2nd contract (no guarantees) he still is roughly even discounted at 5%.

Here are some comparisons for a selection of draft moves. All are discounted cash flows (NPV) at 5% rate. "Delay benefit" is for the 4 year contract assuming full signing bonus (120% of CBA baseline), which is the most common, and picking up the 4th year option. The "Make it Big" or MiB option then assumes a $8mil / year 5 year deal as a 2nd contract just to show how the discount is effected by arriving at that contract 1 year sooner (a common argument).



Pick Today
Delayed Pick
Delay Benefit (Cost)
MiB Benefit (Cost)


#10
#5
$3,863,350.19
$2,571,061.33


#10
#10
($425,251.00)
($1,717,539.86)


#15
#5
$5,495,480.26
$4,203,191.40


#15
#10
$1,206,879
($85,410)


#20
#5
$7,044,664.99
$5,752,376.13


#20
#10
$2,756,063.79
$1,463,774.93


#20
#15
$1,201,654.20
($90,634.66)


#20
#16
$854,454.00
($437,834.86)


#20
#18
$223,360.62
($1,068,928.24)


#20
#20
($273,759.82)
($1,566,048.68)


#25
#15
$2,003,885.79
$711,596.93


#25
#20
$528,471.77
($763,817.09)





Of course that 2nd contract is all speculation and you don't know if going early helps or hurts. The "Delayed benefit" which is just the 4 year deal is still optimistic, assuming you get picked up for the 4th year, but it's far more solid b/c the 3 years are a lock. The problem with going too early is if you don't develop quick enough in those 3 years to get the 4th year and the 2nd contract. You'd better be able to get to that potential by then, and that is a HUGE deal in all of this.

So it could be better to come back not just for the NPV of the 2 draft spots over the 4 years, but also b/c you'd be more ready which means you'd have better results in those first 3 years which means you get a 4th year at full price and a better 2nd contract.

FWIW it gets increasingly better to wait the lower the discount rate, and 5% is generous in this market esp. given the 1st contract is guaranteed for 3 years. One way to play it would be a lower discount rate for the first 3 years then another one for the 4th and 2nd contract. Right now the time value of money is very low, so you don't make much by getting that money now or in a year b/c no one is going to pay you much to borrow it.

I'm not arguing for him to come back per se, but I Cal has said in the past from 20+ you ought to come back if you can move up in a year, and these numbers bear that out. Given that we should primarily stick to the 1st contract due to the far more subjective nature of the 2nd, it doesn't take much of a move to come out ahead by waiting a year and moving up. Given the low TVM right now it's not even a big hit to go in the same exact spot.

[Jeeepcat]

Following WCS is like following three or four streams of consciousness simultaneously....

"Can't wait to go to the Virgin Islands this summer"

[cattails]

Being a 7' gazelle running the floor it is hard to not believe he will not be in the league for some time. As they say he wakes up every morning at 7 feet tall. So a 2nd contract seems a given to me, if he was a wing it's hard to say. Will Shields will no doubt have some influence on what he does, but you just don't know how many hands are in the cookie jar, I think Shields would want him to come back to UK. WCS is young, so who knows, I see him leaving to help his family out, best idea or not.

[dan_bgblue]

The choice of Kentucky represents another sign of growth for Cauley, who has spent much of his life simply trying to blend in. Cauley stood out because of his height and his skin color in Spearville, Kan., population less than 800. Raised there by his white grandparents, Val and Norma Stein, Cauley said he didn't realize he was black or that he was tall.

Others noticed. They still do.

"It almost annoys me," Cauley said. "I'll be at the mall, and they always ask how tall I am or if I play basketball."

He began playing quarterback as a third-grader, and, as he grew to 6-6 at age 14, starred in basketball. Cauley joined the Mo-Kan Elite AAU squad, befriending Shavon Shields, son of Will Shields, the former Kansas City Chiefs great and 12-time Pro Bowl pick, and his wife, Senia.

After his sophomore season at Spearville High School, where Cauley played basketball and 8-man football, he moved 300 miles east to the K.C. suburbs to live with the Shields family.

Though he stayed close to his family across Kansas and his mother in Oklahoma, Cauley needed the structure Will and Senia Shields could help provide, particularly with his academics.

Without the move, Cauley likely would not have qualified to play major-college basketball. It also allowed him to spend more time with his AAU team, based in Kansas City, and gain exposure by playing at a larger high school.

"He's grown tremendously," said Senia Shields, who's sending Willie to Kentucky and Shavon to play basketball at Nebraska next year. "That next period of growth is to find that best fit, where he can mature and become a better basketball player."

Not even a year ago, Cauley said he was scared of Will Shields, the 40-year-old former offensive guard who played at 320 pounds and retired in 2006. Probably still is, Senia Shields said with a straight face

His mother, Marlene Stein, was the first to greet Willie after the victory Friday night. Several other family members attended the game.

Will and Senia stayed in the background. Coaches at Northwest said the family has kept a low profile, remarkable for Will considering his larger-than-life status around Kansas City.

No doubt, though, they've played a key role over the past year in all aspects of his life, including the recruiting process.

"I never had a father figure in my life," Cauley said. "He's a very wise dude."

[Doc]

There's the sliding scale, you do the math. If he slides as low as 15-20 in this draft I think he needs to come back and work himself into the top 10 at least to make a big difference. So it is not so much that this year is a weak draft but his playing position could be short of 5's and he could move up based on that alone. Six of one half dozen another, depends on where he believes he will go based on information. If money and family is a driving force I think he would take the 20th pick and run for it.


7 $2,331,700

8 $2,136,100

9 $1,963,600

10 $1,865,300

11 $1,772,100

12 $1,683,500

13 $1,599,300

14 $1,519,400

15 $1,443,300

16 $1,371,200

17 $1,302,600

18 $1,302,600

19 $1,181,800

20 $1,134,500

Unfortunately this is how folks view it when in actuality the first contract is insignificant compare to subsequent contracts. A player who isn't ready and is forced to develop in the D-league or sit on the NBA bench for 2-3 years isn't going to get as strong a second contract, or may not even get a second contract. The key is being productive by year 3 and if a player doesn't do that, they will suffer financially in the long run.

However in some cases there is greater potential for improvement on a NBA roster or in the D-league due to lack of restrictions that are present in the NCAA. No 20 hr rule, better facilities and equip etc... The key is having the maturity and drive to do it on the NBA without the structure presented by a college program. So IMO one should ignore the salary scale of the first contract and instead focus on the second contract, being productive enough to maximize that contract. Look at the numbers. The difference between the 7th and the 16th pick is "only" a million dollars. That might seem a lot but compare to the difference in potential pay out after 3 years, its chump change.

[CitizenBBN]

Being a 7' gazelle running the floor it is hard to not believe he will not be in the league for some time. As they say he wakes up every morning at 7 feet tall. So a 2nd contract seems a given to me, if he was a wing it's hard to say. Will Shields will no doubt have some influence on what he does, but you just don't know how many hands are in the cookie jar, I think Shields would want him to come back to UK. WCS is young, so who knows, I see him leaving to help his family out, best idea or not.

I agree completely re the second contract and his size/athleticism. I think he gets one, it's just tough to say how much it will be for or if going now helps or hurts the dollar value.

You've got three years to prove you're worth the fourth year, and those four to set the amount of the 2nd contract if any. IMO it's jus speculation to guess how a player develops but there's no doubt that's how long you've got.

For wcs the question is how much time and coaching he needs, and of course the fact that he's 19. If he spends the whole first year in the nbdl does that help more or less than a year at uk? If he stays at uk he's got three years, if he doesn't he's got two left, is that important? It's just guessing

The numbers say you make more money to wait if you can move up even a few spots. Then the question is where will you develop the skills and confidence better to put you in the best position in three years.

A lot of the pros say they were glad they waited IMO bc theres no comparison to being nineteen w a job and playing in the nbdl versus at a place like uk. I think that's a factor in development.

So given that I think overall cal will develop a player better or at least no worse than a pro team, and definitely better than some nbdl staff, I think you stay here that year and develop to be more ready for your three year audition as well as in many cases make more first contract. Money to boot.

Sent from my iPhone using Forum Runner

[cattails]

Unfortunately this is how folks view it when in actuality the first contract is insignificant compare to subsequent contracts. A player who isn't ready and is forced to develop in the D-league or sit on the NBA bench for 2-3 years isn't going to get as strong a second contract, or may not even get a second contract. The key is being productive by year 3 and if a player doesn't do that, they will suffer financially in the long run.

However in some cases there is greater potential for improvement on a NBA roster or in the D-league due to lack of restrictions that are present in the NCAA. No 20 hr rule, better facilities and equip etc... The key is having the maturity and drive to do it on the NBA without the structure presented by a college program. So IMO one should ignore the salary scale of the first contract and instead focus on the second contract, being productive enough to maximize that contract. Look at the numbers. The difference between the 7th and the 16th pick is "only" a million dollars. That might seem a lot but compare to the difference in potential pay out after 3 years, its chump change.


Doc the problem here is the bird in the hand and the 3 in the bush, his family position and being a young person that bird in the hand looks awful good. IMO the future in his eyes is right now, regardless of a better investment.

[ukblue]

With the way the NBA drafts on potential WCS most likely is gone. However if the NBA advisory board advises him to come back it will be all good for us.

[CitizenBBN]

However in some cases there is greater potential for improvement on a NBA roster or in the D-league due to lack of restrictions that are present in the NCAA. No 20 hr rule, better facilities and equip etc... The key is having the maturity and drive to do it on the NBA without the structure presented by a college program. So IMO one should ignore the salary scale of the first contract and instead focus on the second contract, being productive enough to maximize that contract. Look at the numbers. The difference between the 7th and the 16th pick is "only" a million dollars. That might seem a lot but compare to the difference in potential pay out after 3 years, its chump change.

You have to pay attention to the 1st contract b/c of several factors. One is the time value of money of course, but also the fact that risk/variance in outcome goes up as we go forward in time. The uncertainty of the 2nd contract should push me to a higher rate on it, but it would be better to value it in a binary branch model. what that means is the 1st conrtract's value is amplified by its relative certainty.

It also depends on which one we're talking about. The #30 contract is worth $4.5 million in discounted dollars, not a "lot" as you said, but the #1 contract is $20.4 million. that's a LOT of money regardless of 2nd contract. Even assuming the big monster contract of $8m/yr for 5 years, top tier money, that 1st contract is still 42.95% of the 9 year NPV.


Another factor we haven't discussed is marketing/endorsements. A player who has contributed more for 3 years has more fans, more shoe interest, etc. which is all valuable to a franchise. If year 3 looks good but is basically your rookie year for the fans your off court value is likely to be lower.


But in general we agree. You have 3 years to make your case for a 4th and that big 2nd contract. No doubt doing the things that maximizes your contribution and value in year 3 are very important. I also agree versus a lot of schools the NBA may be a better environment to develop, but not versus UK. No pro team can beat what we have, and no NBDL facility can hold a candle to it for staff or resources.


Just for kicks I ran the 1st contract % of total NPV in my 9 year contract calculation, again with the $8m/yr 2nd contract for 5 years.



Pick
1st % of Total


1
43%


2
40%


3
38%


4
35%


5
33%


6
31%


7
29%


8
27%


9
26%


10
25%


11
24%


12
23%


13
23%


14
22%


15
21%


16
20%


17
20%


18
19%


19
18%


20
17%


21
17%


22
17%


23
16%


24
16%


25
15%


26
15%


27
15%


28
15%


29
14%


30
14%

[jazyd]

It all depends on what he wants to do and whether his family truly needs the money now vs one more year. I imagine seeing what happened to Nerlens will enter into his decision.

All of us look at it as adults and what "we" think is best, but put era of us in his shoes we may make the same decision he will.

And if his grandparents are white, then why is he black? One parent is evidently white so he is as much white as black.

Whatever he does I appreciate him being a Cat

[millsforthree]

I agree with others the big guy needs another year to work on his offense, however, this draft is WEAK and I fully expect him to take advantage of that

[Padukacat]

Hes a goner boys

[uklandrn]

I thought Willie was gone after hearing his comments after the Robert Morris game. I still believe that to be the case. I wish him well.

[Darrell KSR]

It's pretty much a sideline to the topic here, but I'll never figure out fans who insist upon ridiculing and blasting UK athletes. I read a conversation Willie had with one such fan, who told him that the D-League needed subs, too, and berated him for his decisions.

Interesting comments from WCS, who did not seem to be that bothered by the guy, other than saying the guy didn't know him. WCS rejected the guy's comment that you play for the name on the front of your shirt, rather than the back, telling the guy that you had to play with enough pride for the name on the BACK of your shirt, not the front--or so Cal told him. Calipari does things a different way, and it's not "all about the school"--it just works out that way for a mutually beneficial relationship. And the kids who leave the school end up loving the school.

Anyway, just an aside.

[cattails]

With the way the NBA drafts on potential WCS most likely is gone. However if the NBA advisory board advises him to come back it will be all good for us.

A serious question. Does he start next year? How many minutes does he play? Let's not forget we have Johnson and Lee coming in and they are GOOD.

[Darrell KSR]

JMO, but Willie Cauley-Stein would start over both Johnson and Lee.

[KentuckyWildcat]

JMO, but Willie Cauley-Stein would start over both Johnson and Lee.

If he doesn't, I can't wait to see Johnson and Lee :)