Real estate bubble?

[KSRBEvans]

The market is smoking hot where we live, to the point that Mrs. BEvans and I are doing some home improvement stuff and considering listing our house just to see if someone will make us a crazy offer.

Anyone else seeing this where you live?

Trying not to think of the housing bubble in 2005-2006, but it does cross my mind.

[CitizenBBN]

No one is selling, haven't for over a year, and now new construction costs are soaring due to lumber prices. Think triple.

For some reason people starting standing pat on selling last year. Existing home listings were off 50% from 2020 compared to 2019 in the Lexington Board region, which is now 12 counties. Not looking like it's picking up much this year. Some, but not to 2019 levels.

Rates are low so demand is still strong, but there's no supply. Thus the price boom.

It's only a "bubble" in that obviously at some point supply will increase, and if rates go up then demand will decrease. So it will ebb and flow back, but unlike some of the government induced bubbles due to lending practices and artificial manipulations, this one is based on actual supply and demand.

This one will change, but not for the next several months at least. People aren't going to start listing their homes in great numbers IMO, even with the price incentive, and the Fed is under a lot of pressure to not raise rates during Covid. Even a modest move in both of those factors (some people selling as Covid lessens, and rates rising some) wont' be enough to completely kill it, esp. with lumber and materials prices up this high to keep new construction at a relative disadvantage.

[Darrell KSR]

Oldest son and daughter both bought houses in the last year and glad they got in when they did.

[Darrell KSR]

Btw, I'll be glad when lumber returns to something reasonable. "My guy" has recommended I hold off on redoing a deck, porch, patio, double stairs and more right now because of lumber price. It's "ok" right now but really need the projects done.

[Doc]

Here in FL it is a seller market. Listings getting multiple full price offers within hrs of hitting the market. Same I HI where my folks just sold a condo they owned. Got a full price offer which they took, and a day or two later got on for $50k over list. Tried to back out of first but to no avail. Our CO house appraised for nearly 85k what our build cost was, and more than $20K what we have in it (Build plus land plus furnishings). It is crazy

[dan_bgblue]

Supply of houses is well below the supply of money right now. Those that have cash or can get financing are going full bore in the market. I do not see how it can last

[KeithKSR]

I’ve got some friends who are realtors. It is a big time sellers market right now. They are moving homes as fast as they can get them on the market. If anyone is thinking about selling then now is the time.

[KeithKSR]

Btw, I'll be glad when lumber returns to something reasonable. "My guy" has recommended I hold off on redoing a deck, porch, patio, double stairs and more right now because of lumber price. It's "ok" right now but really need the projects done.

I checked on pressure treated lumber prices and they have skyrocketed. Nearly $20 for a 2x6x10 is way too high. Last summer I built three raised garden beds using treated 2x8s. The three beds cost around $80. This year it is going to cost $60 for one bed.