Despite the DC and Media Narrative right now...

[VirginiaCat]

Trump approval rating still at 48%.

[Doc]

and what is congress's?

rhetorical question but if you want to look it up, it was at 15% on Dec 17th.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

No it's not.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

No it's not.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

It’s quite possible that the OP saw a different poll than you did. There are numerous different polling operations. Some tilted to the right, some to the left and a few are even balanced.

[VirginiaCat]

https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-job-approval-rating-ticks-after-capitol-riot-rasmussen-poll-1560657

this is AFTER Jan. 6.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

It’s quite possible that the OP saw a different poll than you did. There are numerous different polling operations. Some tilted to the right, some to the left and a few are even balanced.

He was looking at Rasmussen which is a notoriously HEAVY R-leaning poll and has really never had Trump below 47-48. That's why 538 does a very good job of eliminating polling bias and smooths out all polls. Even RCP's poll of polls does not show anything close to that.

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

He was looking at Rasmussen which is a notoriously HEAVY R-leaning poll and has really never had Trump below 47-48. That's why 538 does a very good job of eliminating polling bias and smooths out all polls. Even RCP's poll of polls does not show anything close to that.

Whatever.

[ukpumacat]

Frankly, his approval rating doesn't matter anymore.

But, for just simply conversation's sake....I don't think there is anyone who really believes he has a 48% approval rating right now.

He received just under 47% of the vote. And he has without a doubt lost a lot of supporters after Jan 6th. None of us know how many....but we can all admit he hasn't GAINED any.

The 33% approval rating from Quinnipiac is much more believable tbh.

[GhettoBird]

Which polls lean right and which lean left? What is the most accurate poll to pay attention to in regards to anything political?

[ukpumacat]

Here you go. And this is based on evidence....not just theory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[ukpumacat]

As in, when they are wrong on elections that have happened...which side are they wrong about.

That link also gives you grades of pollsters based on their accuracy. So you kind of have to take the two together.

In other words, if someone has an A....it doesn't really matter which way they are wrong about...because they are rarely very off.

If someone has a C....it matters a lot.

Rasmussen is a notoriously right leaning (poor) pollster. I posted a lot about this during the election cycle. Too many people gave them credit for being "right" during the 2016 cycle. The point is that they almost always lean right....so if the polls are off (and contrary to popular opinion polls are usually pretty good AND when they are off...they are usually all off) to the benefit of Republicans....right leaning ones will look accurate.
But in most other races, they are not. Hope that made sense.

Same is true for C pollsters that lean Dem. They will look more accurate when polls are off to the Dems favor.

[ukpumacat]

As an example....Mason-Dixon is a right leaning pollster as well. But they are a very good pollster. So their bias doesn't really effect their accuracy. That is what you are looking for.

Monmouth is a Dem leaning pollster but a very good one. So their bias doesn't matter either.

And then there is Seltzer. The best pollster in America. Who has no bias whatsoever.

[ukpumacat]

Sorry, this is stuff I love so I nerd out a bit.

Fwiw, I don't really think Mason Dixon has a strong bias at all. I just think they tend to do more polling in the South which means when they are off it is usually toward the advantage of the Republican.

Same with Monmouth in the Northeast actually.

And everything I wrote about Rasmussen is doubly true of Trafalgar. They are almost in D territory now.

The bottom line is that Trump races were very difficult to poll. So was Obama actually. But we only pay attention to those huge races. These pollsters poll a lot. So their grade comes from all of it. Not just one race.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

Puma, you are right that his approval rating doesn't matter anymore. The 33% is more believable. When you have as many as 45% of Republicans supporting the Capitol siege, you would definitely have to assume that his rating has a floor.

The only people that "approval" polling should (and will) include are the 435 House members and the 100 senators, at least for now. Reporting out today says Mitch McConnell is pleased with Impeachment and "hates" the President for what he did last week. Soon after Impeachment and probably conviction, the only opinions that will matter are US attorneys, the SDNY and others just waiting to indict.

[Catfan73]

Even 33% is bizarre after what he did last week.

[ukpumacat]

Puma, you are right that his approval rating doesn't matter anymore. The 33% is more believable. When you have as many as 45% of Republicans supporting the Capitol siege, you would definitely have to assume that his rating has a floor.

The only people that "approval" polling should (and will) include are the 435 House members and the 100 senators, at least for now. Reporting out today says Mitch McConnell is pleased with Impeachment and "hates" the President for what he did last week. Soon after Impeachment and probably conviction, the only opinions that will matter are US attorneys, the SDNY and others just waiting to indict.

Mitch has not lasted this long in politics and become the Senate Majority leader because he is dumb. He isn't. He is terribly savvy. He knows there is a lot of bad stuff coming out in the weeks ahead.
And he knows the best thing for the Republican Party is to try and get rid of Trump now.

Yes, that will hurt in the short term. But its the only way to not be held hostage by him for the next decade. His followers are in DEEP. The crazy stuff many believe right now is just insane. And I mean a lot of people believe it. There are guys on twitter with hundreds of thousands of followers or more who believe that Trump still has a plan and will be President on January 20th. Many believe he has already been sworn in (which is just amazingly illogical).

As a Dem, I am hoping they don't convict him and that he sticks around to cause havoc to the Republican Party for some time.

But that press conference today warned of details that will come out that the public doesn't know about. I have a feeling Mitch has heard those details. Even Kevin McCarthy has started to change his tune some.

[ukpumacat]

Even 33% is bizarre after what he did last week.

The polls are too close to the event to matter. It takes days to put a good poll together. SO many of them likely have a very small sample size or go back before the events on the 6th.

I would expect others to come out in the coming days to show that.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

Mitch has not lasted this long in politics and become the Senate Majority leader because he is dumb. He isn't. He is terribly savvy. He knows there is a lot of bad stuff coming out in the weeks ahead.
And he knows the best thing for the Republican Party is to try and get rid of Trump now.

Yes, that will hurt in the short term. But its the only way to not be held hostage by him for the next decade. His followers are in DEEP. The crazy stuff many believe right now is just insane. And I mean a lot of people believe it. There are guys on twitter with hundreds of thousands of followers or more who believe that Trump still has a plan and will be President on January 20th. Many believe he has already been sworn in (which is just amazingly illogical).

As a Dem, I am hoping they don't convict him and that he sticks around to cause havoc to the Republican Party for some time.

But that press conference today warned of details that will come out that the public doesn't know about. I have a feeling Mitch has heard those details. Even Kevin McCarthy has started to change his tune some.

Agreed. Mitch may be the most effective senator in our nation's history, not for the things that he accomplished for the good of the country, but for how he stretched and bent every rule, took advantage of Democrats mistakes and weakness to basically push through anything that he wanted, especially for the judiciary.

History will end up proving that Mitch simply used Trump to push his agenda and now it's time to take out the trash.

I like you, if I was only putting on my Dem hat would prefer that Trump does have a slow destruction of the GOP. However, it's time to put country over party and we ALL need to unite and eradicate Trumpism.

As I mentioned in another thread, we are going to be seeing hearings, investigations and so on for a LONG, LONG time that will drag down the GOP, even if Trump is long gone.

[GhettoBird]

Mitch has not lasted this long in politics and become the Senate Majority leader because he is dumb. He isn't. He is terribly savvy. He knows there is a lot of bad stuff coming out in the weeks ahead.
And he knows the best thing for the Republican Party is to try and get rid of Trump now.

Yes, that will hurt in the short term. But its the only way to not be held hostage by him for the next decade. His followers are in DEEP. The crazy stuff many believe right now is just insane. And I mean a lot of people believe it. There are guys on twitter with hundreds of thousands of followers or more who believe that Trump still has a plan and will be President on January 20th. Many believe he has already been sworn in (which is just amazingly illogical).

As a Dem, I am hoping they don't convict him and that he sticks around to cause havoc to the Republican Party for some time.

But that press conference today warned of details that will come out that the public doesn't know about. I have a feeling Mitch has heard those details. Even Kevin McCarthy has started to change his tune some.

Puma,

Serious question, why do you think Mitch blocked the vote for 2K stimulus? He had to know it would cost them votes in Georgia, heck I did. Was/is always his end game to rid the republican party of Trump and his supporters?

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

Mitch has not lasted this long in politics and become the Senate Majority leader because he is dumb. He isn't. He is terribly savvy. He knows there is a lot of bad stuff coming out in the weeks ahead.
And he knows the best thing for the Republican Party is to try and get rid of Trump now.

Yes, that will hurt in the short term. But its the only way to not be held hostage by him for the next decade. His followers are in DEEP. The crazy stuff many believe right now is just insane. And I mean a lot of people believe it. There are guys on twitter with hundreds of thousands of followers or more who believe that Trump still has a plan and will be President on January 20th. Many believe he has already been sworn in (which is just amazingly illogical).

As a Dem, I am hoping they don't convict him and that he sticks around to cause havoc to the Republican Party for some time.

But that press conference today warned of details that will come out that the public doesn't know about. I have a feeling Mitch has heard those details. Even Kevin McCarthy has started to change his tune some.

Definitely right about Mitch. He’s not dumb. I just hope we as Kentuckians can find a better candidate than him in 6 years. I’ve wanted him gone for a while but the alternatives have been worse.

[VirginiaCat]

He was looking at Rasmussen which is a notoriously HEAVY R-leaning poll and has really never had Trump below 47-48. That's why 538 does a very good job of eliminating polling bias and smooths out all polls. Even RCP's poll of polls does not show anything close to that.


It also is notoriously more accurate in general elections than any of the trash you posted.

[VirginiaCat]

Frankly, his approval rating doesn't matter anymore.

But, for just simply conversation's sake....I don't think there is anyone who really believes he has a 48% approval rating right now.

He received just under 47% of the vote. And he has without a doubt lost a lot of supporters after Jan 6th. None of us know how many....but we can all admit he hasn't GAINED any.

The 33% approval rating from Quinnipiac is much more believable tbh.

under 47% if you count all those illegal ballots...which is how we got here.

[anderwt]

The most powerful man in DC just turned on the Goon.. Mitch wants him impeached, other Republicans will folks hopefully

[Catfan73]

Mitch is worried about losing all of those corporate contributions.

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

I personally wish Trump would wake up in the morning and hold a press conference. In it I wish he’d say Screw you Mitch, Screw you Chuck and screw you Nancy.....I’m out! I’m deciding when I leave........not you swamp monsters. Drop the mic and walk off.

Trump’s greatest accomplishment in his 4 years has been the fact that he completely exposed the elitist left and other swamp creatures for what they truly are.

[anderwt]

I personally wish Trump would wake up in the morning and hold a press conference. In it I wish he’d say Screw you Mitch, Screw you Chuck and screw you Nancy.....I’m out! I’m deciding when I leave........not you swamp monsters. Drop the mic and walk off.

Trump’s greatest accomplishment in his 4 years has been the fact that he completely exposed the elitist left and other swamp creatures for what they truly are.

I felt just like you trucker for a long time.. but last week, man, I just can’t get over it.. it’s not who the Republican Party is. We work and make fun of the crazy left.. it’s what we could always hold over their heads.. that has been stripped away...and it’s all because of one man

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

I felt just like you trucker for a long time.. but last week, man, I just can’t get over it.. it’s not who the Republican Party is. We work and make fun of the crazy left.. it’s what we could always hold over their heads.. that has been stripped away...and it’s all because of one man

Trump needs to go. I agree with that. But impeachment WILL cause more violence with the lunatic fringe. I believe he’ll go quietly if Nancy and Chuck don’t poke the bear.

Despite feeling that he needs to go, I’ll always support his America First agenda and I’ll always be thankful he exposed the left, the swamp and the media for the crooks and scum they are.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

under 47% if you count all those illegal ballots...which is how we got here.

Talk about trash.

:lmao:

[Catfan73]

under 47% if you count all those illegal ballots...which is how we got here.

You know they made that up, right?

This is a huge part of the problem in a nutshell. There are people everywhere out there, including quite a few on this board, that still think the election was stolen. Yet that notion is based on nothing more than rhetoric. One would think that a group so distrustful of the press would be a bit more skeptical.

[VirginiaCat]

You know they made that up, right?

This is a huge part of the problem in a nutshell. There are people everywhere out there, including quite a few on this board, that still think the election was stolen. Yet that notion is based on nothing more than rhetoric. One would think that a group so distrustful of the press would be a bit more skeptical.

No actually.

In each state in the Union that used the courts or executive branch to change their voting laws (be it date to receive or mail ballots or extending period for which ballots could be accepted) those are illegal ballots. Only the legislative branches can make change to state voting laws. As I understand it SCOTUS never said they were legal, just that the claims were filed too late (balless Roberts). That would not even account for the new mail in ballots processed developed by those two branches that were outside the approved absentee ballot process in each state.

And that is why you will always have 74MM people, at least, saying Biden is not legitimate POTUS. COVID or any pandemic is no excuse for Exec Branch and Judicial Branch to make an end run around the legislative branches.

[ukpumacat]

No actually.

In each state in the Union that used the courts or executive branch to change their voting laws (be it date to receive or mail ballots or extending period for which ballots could be accepted) those are illegal ballots. Only the legislative branches can make change to state voting laws. As I understand it SCOTUS never said they were legal, just that the claims were filed too late (balless Roberts). That would not even account for the new mail in ballots processed developed by those two branches that were outside the approved absentee ballot process in each state.

And that is why you will always have 74MM people, at least, saying Biden is not legitimate POTUS. COVID or any pandemic is no excuse for Exec Branch and Judicial Branch to make an end run around the legislative branches.

It happens in every single election. There have always been exceptions made and rule changes. They were simply highlighted this year.
Not just that, every single new member in the House and Senate as well as a huge number of state and local elections were on the exact same ballots following the exact same rules.
No one is standing up and saying anyone else "stole the election". No one is sating any of those people are "not legitimate".

That is what has always made this argument such an illogical one. There were people in House and Senate elected on the same ballot who voted to overturn the Presidential election based on your exact argument. Even though its completely and utterly illogical to do.

[ukpumacat]

Definitely right about Mitch. He’s not dumb. I just hope we as Kentuckians can find a better candidate than him in 6 years. I’ve wanted him gone for a while but the alternatives have been worse.

Mitch will be 84 when his current term ends. I don't suspect he will run again.

[ukpumacat]

Puma,

Serious question, why do you think Mitch blocked the vote for 2K stimulus? He had to know it would cost them votes in Georgia, heck I did. Was/is always his end game to rid the republican party of Trump and his supporters?

Blocking the vote was smart of him imo (as a political move). The reason he did it is because it would not have passed the Senate. The majority of Republicans had already said they would not support it. He knew it wouldn't pass.
As bad as it might have looked to not hold the vote....it would have been worse to hold it and not pass it. And that would have put those particular Republicans on record which they didn't want.

Trump put the squeeze on Mitch and the Republicans and it didn't work. Imo (and I am sure in Mitch's), Trump cost Republicans the Georgia races. Him putting pressure on Mitch and going public about the stimulus was likely the final nail in the coffin.

But, Republican turnout in that run-off was doomed from the start. That's what happens when the President tells people for months their election was rigged and they can't trust the Republican SOS etc to run an election.

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

Mitch will be 84 when his current term ends. I don't suspect he will run again.

You never know. He could try to become a modern day Strom Thurmond. God help us all!

[StuBleedsBlue2]

It happens in every single election. There have always been exceptions made and rule changes. They were simply highlighted this year.
Not just that, every single new member in the House and Senate as well as a huge number of state and local elections were on the exact same ballots following the exact same rules.
No one is standing up and saying anyone else "stole the election". No one is sating any of those people are "not legitimate".

That is what has always made this argument such an illogical one. There were people in House and Senate elected on the same ballot who voted to overturn the Presidential election based on your exact argument. Even though its completely and utterly illogical to do.

Not to mention that everything that VirginiaCat's arguments could or have been settled in court and the point of yours that I have called out is absolutely important to remember.

There are people smarter than any of us here that have concluded that it is over.

At this point, people can either accept that this election was indeed the most safe and secure (as stated by the DHS) or choose to believe lies.

No one likes to be conned. We all have at some point in our life to some degree or another, but there is a time to accept reality and get over it.

[GhettoBird]

Blocking the vote was smart of him imo (as a political move). The reason he did it is because it would not have passed the Senate. The majority of Republicans had already said they would not support it. He knew it wouldn't pass.
As bad as it might have looked to not hold the vote....it would have been worse to hold it and not pass it. And that would have put those particular Republicans on record which they didn't want.

Trump put the squeeze on Mitch and the Republicans and it didn't work. Imo (and I am sure in Mitch's), Trump cost Republicans the Georgia races. Him putting pressure on Mitch and going public about the stimulus was likely the final nail in the coffin.

But, Republican turnout in that run-off was doomed from the start. That's what happens when the President tells people for months their election was rigged and they can't trust the Republican SOS etc to run an election.

Thanks, I had not thought of it from that point of view.

[dan_bgblue]

No actually.

In each state in the Union that used the courts or executive branch to change their voting laws (be it date to receive or mail ballots or extending period for which ballots could be accepted) those are illegal ballots. Only the legislative branches can make change to state voting laws. As I understand it SCOTUS never said they were legal, just that the claims were filed too late (balless Roberts). That would not even account for the new mail in ballots processed developed by those two branches that were outside the approved absentee ballot process in each state.

And that is why you will always have 74MM people, at least, saying Biden is not legitimate POTUS. COVID or any pandemic is no excuse for Exec Branch and Judicial Branch to make an end run around the legislative branches.

There have been a lot of excuses put forth about this issue like, it always happens but was made an issue in this election, lots of other people were on these same ballots that are claimed to be illegal and none of them are complaining. What the excuse makers are not addressing is the FACT that the ballots were filed ILLEGALLY. I do not give a damn about the other candidates on those ballots, but I do care about the ones that were illegal for POTUS due to a judge, a governor, a mayor, etc that decided they had the power to change voting rules that only the legislators are charged with doing by the constitutions of the USA and of the individual states.

Count all the legal votes for POTUS, throw out the ones that were not filed legally and see how the results shake out.

[dan_bgblue]

I also do not care about the rulings of lower court judges that nullified the legal complains filed by the Trump administration.

Count the damn legal votes and see who wins. I will not be angry or disappointed if Trump loses under those circumstances. Given the events of the last couple of weeks I would hope he loses, but that is not really fair either as none of the events of the last 2 weeks would have happened if the election had been handled in a fair and legal manner whether he had won or lost.

[ukpumacat]

I also do not care about the rulings of lower court judges that nullified the legal complains filed by the Trump administration.

Count the damn legal votes and see who wins. I will not be angry or disappointed if Trump loses under those circumstances. Given the events of the last couple of weeks I would hope he loses, but that is not really fair either as none of the events of the last 2 weeks would have happened if the election had been handled in a fair and legal manner whether he had won or lost.

You can't have one without the other.

We have laws (like election laws).
And then we have judges to enforce, implement and apply those laws.
They did. And they concluded all legal votes were counted. And Trump lost by over 7 million.

Trump received votes in the exact same election on the exact same ballot that Biden did. No votes would be counted under your scenario for either candidate (or any other race) because the "rules were changed".

[VirginiaCat]

You can't have one without the other.

We have laws (like election laws).
And then we have judges to enforce, implement and apply those laws.
They did. And they concluded all legal votes were counted. And Trump lost by over 7 million.

Trump received votes in the exact same election on the exact same ballot that Biden did. No votes would be counted under your scenario for either candidate (or any other race) because the "rules were changed".

No they did not. Those judges steped into MAKING law, not interpreting them. There in is the problem

[ukpumacat]

No they did not. Those judges steped into MAKING law, not interpreting them. There in is the problem

You missed my point.

As an example....When the Supreme Court makes a decision that conservatives disagree with because they say the justices "made the law and didn't interpret the law" (this happens a lot) is that decision still the law?

And of course the answer is yes. Just because you or me disagree with the decision (or how they made it) doesn't change the fact that their decision is now the law. Their decision is literally the supreme decision. There is no higher court to appeal.

Those judges made the decision. The Supreme Court accepted (or refused to overturn) those decisions. So, it is THE LAW. Therefore, all legal votes were counted. That is the law (like it or not).

And again, Trump received votes on the exact same ballots in the exact same states where you disagree with the judges decisions on election law.
So, either none of their votes are legal or both of their votes are legal. That is ultimately the point.