2024 - Never too early

[ukpumacat]

I love watching odds. And it was fascinating to watch the odds on the 2024 Presidential election change yesterday. Trump fell from +500 to +1200. The biggest riser was Mike Pence. He now has the 3rd best odds at +600 (behind Biden and Harris at +500). Nikki Haley is the next Republican on the list.
There are some other pretty funny bets on there. Like, what will Trumps new twitter handle be, etc.

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

I’m really high on a potential Tim Scott/Nikki Haley ticket in 2024. I think they could pull in more black GOP voters as well as women in the suburbs which is where Trump supposedly lost in November.

[catmanjack]

Praying heavily there is no Harris to speak of.
Puma you promised!

[ukpumacat]

Praying heavily there is no Harris to speak of.
Puma you promised!

Ha. Well, I think Biden makes it all 4 years. I don't know after that. I think he would stay in office but honestly have no clue. Either way, I think Harris would have to run in 2024.

[ukpumacat]

I’m really high on a potential Tim Scott/Nikki Haley ticket in 2024. I think they could pull in more black GOP voters as well as women in the suburbs which is where Trump supposedly lost in November.

Who is the top of that ticket? I ask because its really all about what candidate can get through the primaries AND win in the general.
Fwiw, I think both of those would qualify in that regard.

[catmanjack]

Oh I see Biden as a 1 term president and truly hate to hear that Harris would have the votes to even be considered.

[catmanjack]

He is 78 right?

[catmanjack]

We have a huge issue with the age of these politicians.
Biden, McConnell, Pelosi they all stay way to long.

[Catonahottinroof]

I think it’s a doubled edged sword. With age comes experience.....and senility ....

[ukpumacat]

We have a huge issue with the age of these politicians.
Biden, McConnell, Pelosi they all stay way to long.

Yup.

[ukpumacat]

Oh I see Biden as a 1 term president and truly hate to hear that Harris would have the votes to even be considered.

I THINK Harris would be the favorite if Biden decided not to run again. But honestly, if I were a betting man I think he will. After Covid and yesterday, who knows what 4 years from now will look like.

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

Who is the top of that ticket? I ask because its really all about what candidate can get through the primaries AND win in the general.
Fwiw, I think both of those would qualify in that regard.

Not really sure. Both would be great candidates IMO.

[TRUCKERCATFAN]

We have a huge issue with the age of these politicians.
Biden, McConnell, Pelosi they all stay way to long.

Amen! The office of President has term limit. The House and Senate should be the same.

My dad always likes to say “politicians are like diapers. They should be changed often and for the same reason.”

[ukpumacat]

For Republicans....what a difficult task for any candidate.

They will have to get some of the Trump base in order to win the primary. But they can't be "Trumpian" to ever win the general (in other words, Don Jr has no chance after yesterday).

I am not sure who all fits that bill.

Chuck and I have discussed this many times. But the "genius" of Trump is that he tapped into something that has existed for sometime.
He knew conservatives were frustrated with the GOP. So, he used that. He made himself the "outsider" they needed. That was all Roger Ailes doing btw (and a little bit of Steve Bannon). Those guys had their finger right on that pulse. Trump fed that and became a hero.

The problem of course is that he doesn't stand for many conservative values. He is a massive spender and he drove up the debt. At some point, his followers will realize this. And other Republicans will never support it again.
And then Trump became his own worst enemy. It became about him.

The issue is it had nothing to do with him when it started. Ailes just had his finger on that pulse (btw, I am not taking credit away from Trump here. Every politician has strategists in this way. Trump was smart enough to believe it and do it). But eventually, he became the embodiment of that frustration. The frustration of feeling like you aren't heard. And that America is changing and leaving your way of life behind.
Trump is none of those things. He is a rich, entitled, spoiled, etc etc. But, he became the embodiment of it. Everyone wants a Hero King and Trump became it. And he ran against the perfect candidate to beat with that message....the most unpopular candidate in Presidential history.

Unfortunately, that fed his ego and narcissism and he became unhinged in his Presidency. He stopped listening to anyone and bungled his own re-election. He stepped on his own foot weekly. He really thought that most Americans were the people at his rallies. He only played to his base and that won't do it in America. He wanted to be the hero of his rallies so he refused to pivot at all to the middle.

And Dems got lucky. They had a safe, boring, trusted, nice old grandpa to be their (our) candidate. That was luck. Sort of like the same way Trump won because Rubio, Cruz and Bush kept beating each other up and not taking Trump serious.
Biden just stuck around. He won SC and everyone said, "I guess he's our guy". It worked. People (like fanbases) want what they don't have. So America chose the opposite of Trump. They wanted boring. America was exhausted. Its like dating a 21 year old and eventually just going...."Um, I can't keep up with this anymore"....so you go back to your boring ex. Ha

So now for Republicans, who can stay tapped into the pulse of that GOP frustration but also not come across so crazy that you lose independents and suburbia?
I don't know honestly. Cruz and Hawley tried yesterday and that didn't work out well for them. Trying to be Trump is going to look shallow and obvious. They have to be authentic.
Tim Scott is well liked by many so maybe he can be that. But, will he tap into that base? I just don't know.

But a lot will change in 4 years and I suppose we will see. Trump lost a lot of influence yesterday but he will still have some. Who he endorses will go a long way with the faithful. But to be honest, I am not sure he will want someone to beat Biden when he couldn't. That's just Trump.

[catmanjack]

Well actually it can be an easy thing to clean up you just have to find that right candidate and both parties are struggling to find them.

[catmanjack]

I don’t see your views lining up with hers all that well. Would you support her direction?
And I know you do not and have not discussed your views but I think it would be very interesting to hear and then why you support those views.
As has been stated we all should be striving for the same common views.

I THINK Harris would be the favorite if Biden decided not to run again. But honestly, if I were a betting man I think he will. After Covid and yesterday, who knows what 4 years from now will look like.

[ukpumacat]

I don’t see your views lining up with hers all that well. Would you support her direction?
And I know you do not and have not discussed your views but I think it would be very interesting to hear and then why you support those views.
As has been stated we all should be striving for the same common views.

I’ll let you know in 4 years! Ha.
I’m being serious but I honestly don’t know. She’s a bit of a quagmire. I know people call her “far left” and all that and she has a very liberal voting record (which I’m largely a fan of) but progressives were not fans of her for a very long time.
In California, she was so known for being a hard prosecutor that it took a while for some to soften to her.
And she’s like so many others, she is very malleable to what the winds are at the time (which is why I didn’t vote for her in the primary).
My guess is that she’s not nearly as “socialist” as many would like to believe but we shall see.
And of course I don’t know who else would be running if Biden doesn’t.
Will I vote for her over Ted Cruz and most Republicans? Of course.
But don’t have a clue if she would get my vote in a primary until I know the choices.

[suncat05]

We have a huge issue with the age of these politicians.
Biden, McConnell, Pelosi they all stay way to long.

Which is one of the many reasons why term limits for these leeches are needed.
We DO NOT NEED CAREER POLITICIANS. Career politicians are what have led us to the mess we are in now.
What we are witnessing is the fall of Rome all over again. THAT was brought on by several centuries worth of corrupt career family politicians.
And I fully understand that nothing lasts forever, but what we've allowed as a nation with all of these career politicians on both sides is pretty repugnant.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

I’ll let you know in 4 years! Ha.
I’m being serious but I honestly don’t know. She’s a bit of a quagmire. I know people call her “far left” and all that and she has a very liberal voting record (which I’m largely a fan of) but progressives were not fans of her for a very long time.
In California, she was so known for being a hard prosecutor that it took a while for some to soften to her.
And she’s like so many others, she is very malleable to what the winds are at the time (which is why I didn’t vote for her in the primary).
My guess is that she’s not nearly as “socialist” as many would like to believe but we shall see.
And of course I don’t know who else would be running if Biden doesn’t.
Will I vote for her over Ted Cruz and most Republicans? Of course.
But don’t have a clue if she would get my vote in a primary until I know the choices.

Just seeing this for the first time...

When there were all the Presidential candidates in the primary, Harris was my original first choice, for the reason in bold above. Then as I learned more about some of the other candidates and saw, of all people, Tulsi Gabbard skewer her, I realized that she's not ready to be at the head of the ticket. When Biden chose her as his running mate, I was really happy. 4 years as VP will season her and ease my concerns about her abilities to handle the rigors of a campaign.

[KentuckyWildcat]

I've always felt like Haley would be the next republican candidate. Actually thought she would be this time. Always knew Trump would be a one term guy, just didn't know how it would end. Something tells me that Pence has had enough lol

Two of my favorites are Crenshaw and Gabbard. (I know that doesn't make sense). I'd love see a ticket that crosses party lines, but I know that will never happen.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

I would suspect that anyone tainted with Trump support is going to be poisonous going into 2024, unless Biden/Harris completely falls apart. As long as things are calm and cool, IMO, the best shot Republicans have in 2024 is putting up a never-Trumper, but then they would have to worry about enthusiasm.

I'm not sure when 74 million Republicans will show up to vote for a candidate again, at least until there are major changes to the party. It's not like the Democrat Party is this big tent, but at least moderate Republicans are willing to support their candidates against anyone that has, or continues, to support Trumpism.