Is The Senate For Sure Republican Majority??

[Darryl]

Thanks

Darryl

[KeithKSR]

It sure looks that way.

[ukpumacat]

I think so D.

The ones that are still unknown are:

Georgia 1 - Very tight but looking pretty good for the R as the Dem is running behind Biden votes.

Georgia 2 - Will be a runoff but R is expected to win any race in Georgia. Could be tight.

North Carolina - VERY close but looking better for the R than the Dem

Maine - a little surprised with this one honestly. But looking like Collins may hold her seat.

Michigan - This is the Dems best chance. I think the Dem holds this seat in the end.

Its sort of the opposite of the Presidential race before it started....all races are very close but Trump had a much narrower path and needed to pull an inside straight. It looks like he didn't.
Dems need to pull one in these final races that are all very close and I doubt they will.

[KeithKSR]

I think so D.

The ones that are still unknown are:

Georgia 1 - Very tight but looking pretty good for the R as the Dem is running behind Biden votes.

Georgia 2 - Will be a runoff but R is expected to win any race in Georgia. Could be tight.

North Carolina - VERY close but looking better for the R than the Dem

Maine - a little surprised with this one honestly. But looking like Collins may hold her seat.

Michigan - This is the Dems best chance. I think the Dem holds this seat in the end.

Its sort of the opposite of the Presidential race before it started....all races are very close but Trump had a much narrower path and needed to pull an inside straight. It looks like he didn't.
Dems need to pull one in these final races that are all very close and I doubt they will.

Michigan is only a flip if the Republican James wins. James currently leads the incumbent Peters by 10,000 votes.

The Collins win isn’t that surprising to me, it is difficult to defeat incumbent senators.

[ukpumacat]

Gideon just called Collins conceding the race.

[ukpumacat]

I think it will end up 52-48 Republicans.

[Doc]

Is 47-47 (2 independents grouped with demos since they caucus that way)

GOP adds / keeps Sullivan (Alaska), Purdue (GA), Collins (Maine), Tillis (NC)

Hopefuls are James (MI FLIP) and the GA run off

[KeithKSR]

I think it will end up 52-48 Republicans.

Possibly 53-48 if Loeffler wins the run off as expected and James flips Michigan.

Divided government tends to work the best. There is no better example than Clinton after Newt became speaker in the 90s.

[ukpumacat]

Divided government tends to work the best. There is no better example than Clinton after Newt became speaker in the 90s.

I don't disagree with this. Its just that people tend to say that when its convenient. Meaning, if Trump won and Republicans kept control of the Senate its unlikely anyone would be on here posting, "I wish the Dems had of won control because a divided government works the best".

[Doc]

I don't disagree with this. Its just that people tend to say that when its convenient. Meaning, if Trump won and Republicans kept control of the Senate its unlikely anyone would be on here posting, "I wish the Dems had of won control because a divided government works the best".

Not here. I and many others on this board have been critical of a single party rule regardless of party in charge.

[KeithKSR]

I don't disagree with this. Its just that people tend to say that when its convenient. Meaning, if Trump won and Republicans kept control of the Senate its unlikely anyone would be on here posting, "I wish the Dems had of won control because a divided government works the best".

When the Senate, the House and the President are all one party they tend to really screw up. That’s how we got Obamacare’s issues and how the GOP screwed up by trying to repeal it without a replacement.

[KeithKSR]

Not here. I and many others on this board have been critical of a single party rule regardless of party in charge.

Yes, and if there is a super majority in the Senate it is even worse. The filibuster has been kept in place for legislation for a long time for good reason.

[ukpumacat]

Not here. I and many others on this board have been critical of a single party rule regardless of party in charge.

Fair enough.

[VirginiaCat]

Can you imagine the outside money that will role into Georgia for that Senate Runoff?

[KeithKSR]

Can you imagine the outside money that will role into Georgia for that Senate Runoff?

They won’t have a lot of time.

[ukpumacat]

Peters just took the lead in Michigan as I suspected he would.

[ukpumacat]

Fwiw, I took a quick peek ahead to 2022 assuming the Reps hold the Senate.

There are 34 seats up for re-election. 22 Reps and 12 Dems.

There are roughly 7 Rep seats that are flippable. And 4 Dem seats.

Looking at those, it would take a lot for Dems to flip it in 2022 as well. So I think a good chance Reps hold on to the Senate throughout Biden's term.

[KeithKSR]

Fwiw, I took a quick peek ahead to 2022 assuming the Reps hold the Senate.

There are 34 seats up for re-election. 22 Reps and 12 Dems.

There are roughly 7 Rep seats that are flippable. And 4 Dem seats.

Looking at those, it would take a lot for Dems to flip it in 2022 as well. So I think a good chance Reps hold on to the Senate throughout Biden's term.

AOC has her sights set on primarying Schumer. That’s why he was all in for packing the court, and adding PR and DC as states.

[CitizenBBN]

I don't disagree with this. Its just that people tend to say that when its convenient. Meaning, if Trump won and Republicans kept control of the Senate its unlikely anyone would be on here posting, "I wish the Dems had of won control because a divided government works the best".

Since Mitch would never end the filibuster it wouldn't be one party rule even if the GOP held the House and Senate and WH.

The fundamental threat is that the Dem leadership has made very serious threats of having true one party rule with a simple majority approach. That's why them getting all three of those bodies of government is such a threat, especially riding this Trump backlash.

When people are inflamed or irrational enough to believe that ends justify the means it's a sure sign tyranny is coming. When threats are made to pack SCOTUS, make 2 new states for political gains and end the filibuster are all being stated by very senior leadership, it's time to worry.

For all of Mitch's warts he will not go any further to destroy the tempered nature of the Senate. He removed the filibuster for SCOTUS in response to Reid's removal of it for all other judiciary positions, and removed the blue slip rule that IMO either party needed to end, but didn't remove it even when the GOP held the same 3 bodies for 2 years. They could have gotten much more of the agenda implemented, but he didn't cross that line.

Just like how SCOTUS judges sometimes look out for the body of the Supreme Court rather than looking to make a ruling, sometimes Senators need to protect the Senate more than get a law passed.

[Doc]

Peters just took the lead in Michigan as I suspected he would.

Was pretty amazing come back. When I went to bed, Peters was up by like 4 and a 1/2 percentage points. Then WHAM, lead was gone. Almost like a whole bunch of ballots showed up, that all happened to be democrat. Flipped the entire states presidential race as well.

[Darryl]

Was pretty amazing come back. When I went to bed, Peters was up by like 4 and a 1/2 percentage points. Then WHAM, lead was gone. Almost like a whole bunch of ballots showed up, that all happened to be democrat. Flipped the entire states presidential race as well.

Happened to Trump in 4 states. A Christmas miracle??

Darryl

[ukpumacat]

Happened to Trump in 4 states. A Christmas miracle??

Darryl

I know you guys know these didn't just "show up". These are ballots that were turned in before Election Day. They can't count them until Election Day per their state rules. That is why we are waiting on all of these states. It happens every single election.

The same way Trump NEEDS Nevada and Arizona to keep counting their votes or he loses. He hasn't filed lawsuits there because he's behind (unlike PA, Michigan and Georgia).

I'm hoping you are both joking because the longer this goes...the more some of Trump supporters are going to start going crazy with this stuff. They have already had Trump supporters trying to get into the voting center in Philly and Detroit. And now there is a protest in Arizona outside one.

Just let people count the votes. And let the winner win and the loser lose.

This is exactly why I was hoping Biden or Trump would have a clear win early. This is the worst possible scenario for where our country is at right now.

[ukpumacat]

Back to the Senate.

Perdue in Georgia is very likely going to drop below 50%. If he does, there will be TWO Senate run-offs there in January.
That would make it 50-48. Meaning, those two run-offs would be for Senate control. That is nuts. Talk about a lot of money being spent.

[CitizenBBN]

I know you guys know these didn't just "show up". These are ballots that were turned in before Election Day. They can't count them until Election Day per their state rules. That is why we are waiting on all of these states. It happens every single election.

The same way Trump NEEDS Nevada and Arizona to keep counting their votes or he loses. He hasn't filed lawsuits there because he's behind (unlike PA, Michigan and Georgia).

I'm hoping you are both joking because the longer this goes...the more some of Trump supporters are going to start going crazy with this stuff. They have already had Trump supporters trying to get into the voting center in Philly and Detroit. And now there is a protest in Arizona outside one.

Just let people count the votes. And let the winner win and the loser lose.

This is exactly why I was hoping Biden or Trump would have a clear win early. This is the worst possible scenario for where our country is at right now.

the problem is that no one does, or should, trust government or the voting process in many of these states.

When people are allowed to vote without an ID, register the same day potentially in multiple locations, when you can have political operatives collect ballots, it's hard to believe there is no fraud.

Any sane person knows there is vote influencing and editing in places like nursing homes in states like California, where an operative can go through and "help" people fill out ballots, watch them to do it, and then take them away. Of course they can influence them easily, throw away ballots he/she doesn't like, etc.

It's a joke, and what is going on is that people are realizing more and more how easy it is to influence elections in these states.

Poor backward kentucky runs a far better, more honest, more secure election than these big states that puff out their chests about their greatness. You have to have an ID, you have to be registered with enough time to be properly verified, the voting is properly monitored, there is absolutely no harvesting, etc.

It doesn't mean the Dems stole the election, but just as supposedly Russian bots on Facebook "stole" it for Trump, now people will wonder.

And they should wonder. b/c the system is dirty as hell.

[ukpumacat]

Back to the Senate.

Perdue in Georgia is very likely going to drop below 50%. If he does, there will be TWO Senate run-offs there in January.
That would make it 50-48. Meaning, those two run-offs would be for Senate control. That is nuts. Talk about a lot of money being spent.

He did indeed drop below 50%. So, two run-offs in Georgia in January....likely for control of the Senate.

[Doc]

He did indeed drop below 50%. So, two run-offs in Georgia in January....likely for control of the Senate.

who knows, maybe a car with a bunch of Perdue votes will pull in. However is still 2% to be counted,

[ukpumacat]

who knows, maybe a car with a bunch of Perdue votes will pull in. However is still 2% to be counted,

Because of the counties that are still counting...Perdue will finish just below the line. But, Osoff is running behind Biden a bit so you never know (which again, is more proof none of this is cheating).

[goodycat]

With Trump off the ballot, I would suspect that both Republicans will win the runoffs in Georgia. However, if Tillis wins in NC all republicans need is for one of the two to win.

[Doc]

With Trump off the ballot, I would suspect that both Republicans will win the runoffs in Georgia. However, if Tillis wins in NC all republicans need is for one of the two to win.

Tillis is up roughly 100,000 votes with 93% in. Doing the math, means 380,000 votes left. Means 75% would have to be against Tillis for him to lose, unless some more votes are found. I would expect option 2 as most likely.