Dennis Dodd, CBS prediction on whether there will be college football in the Fall

[Darrell KSR]

@dennisdoddcbs: Latest projection on if there will be cfb this fall -- 35%.

[anderwt]

There will be a season, just won’t be till second semester

[LakeCat]

There will be a season, just won’t be till second semester

Gives TW more healing time.

[Darrell KSR]

Gives TW more healing time.Great point.

[Dokker]

I’d be fine with that, although “Spring” probably really means winter/cold.

[Darrell KSR]

It's just one media guy, don't read too much into it, either.

[Dokker]

Kind of a side note, and it probably doesn’t apply to the media such as Dodd.

Anyway, the NFL commish apparently told coaches and owners to quit going on every form of media and speculating about the season. Says it’s doing no good, and just confusing everyone as people try to speculate and all these different opinions are given. I happen to agree it’s probably not helpful.

[KeithKSR]

There will be a season, just won’t be till second semester

During cold and flu season? Not a good idea. There is no reason at this point not to schedule it for fall. The virus will be gone by August.

[catmanjack]

I have been lead to believe it’s a fore gone conclusion that there will be a season.
Has to be!

[Bakert]

During cold and flu season? Not a good idea. There is no reason at this point not to schedule it for fall. The virus will be gone by August.

And you can guarantee that?

[anderwt]

Dr Fauci comes and Says the virus will determine the schedule lol..

[Terry Blue]

I would bet the farm there will be a 2020 season, even if it's in 2021. Of course we sold the family farm years ago, lol

[Patrick541]

So let's say our government decides to do test, trace, and isolate method meaning that if you test positive, they trace who you've been in contact with the last week or so and then those have to isolate 14 days.

how in the world could you have a season if a player gets sick, his whole team, and his last opponents whole team have to isolate?

[MickintheHam]

@dennisdoddcbs: Latest projection on if there will be cfb this fall -- 35%.

I’m. Not sure what he knowsthat no one else does.

[Darrell KSR]

I would bet the farm there will be a 2020 season, even if it's in 2021. Of course we sold the family farm years ago, lol

lol. I'll bet your family farm that, too.

FWIW, my personal opinion is the same as yours. I think there will be a 2020 season. I also think it will be in the Fall.

Nobody asked me, but I'd put the odds at:

2020 Season: 85%
2020 Fall Season: 50%.

JMO.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

During cold and flu season? Not a good idea. There is no reason at this point not to schedule it for fall. The virus will be gone by August.

What happened to the virus would run its course by June?

It's not going to be GONE by August either. That'll be about the time the 2nd wave starts.




So let's say our government decides to do test, trace, and isolate method meaning that if you test positive, they trace who you've been in contact with the last week or so and then those have to isolate 14 days.

how in the world could you have a season if a player gets sick, his whole team, and his last opponents whole team have to isolate?

Our government will be doing none of those on a mass scale, so there's no worry about that, but your last question is legitimate.

"She's a wonderful young woman, Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time, and then all of the sudden today she tested positive.....This is why the whole concept of tests aren't necessarily great. The tests are perfect, but something can happen between a test where it's good and then something happens and all of the sudden. She was tested very recently and tested negative, and then today I guess for some reason she tested positive."

"If we did very little testing, [America] wouldn't have the most cases, so, in a way, by doing all of this testing, we make ourselves look bad."

Those quotes do not bode well for the planning of testing that we need to effectively minimize the impact of the virus. It's actually really eye-opening on the ignorance of the ability of the virus to spread. That quote certainly isn't going to make any players feel good about the availability of testing.

MLB is producing their plan to the players union tomorrow. Based off that response, it could be the first domino to fall, but that response could almost certainly doom football to 2021.

[Patrick541]

I dont even watch football but the problem is, if football goes, athletic budgets will crumble.

[Terry Blue]

This, why I maintain there will be a season

[catmanjack]

Take it how you want but unfortunately the life economy is way more important then sports.
This there has to be college football is just off base.
When companies start talking about a 20% reduction in work force that the real deal.

[KeithKSR]

Schools all over are announcing a return to on campus classes for the fall terms beginning in August.

[Terry Blue]

Georgia, who seems to be the most aggressive state in coming back has been opened up for over 2 weeks now, had their best day Saturday since Covid 19 started the way I heard it

[StuBleedsBlue2]

Georgia, who seems to be the most aggressive state in coming back has been opened up for over 2 weeks now, had their best day Saturday since Covid 19 started the way I heard it

Not quite

93889389

[Carolinawildcats]

Dr. Fauci is certainly not endorsing it....not real surprised.

https://247sports.com/college/kentucky/Article/Anthony-Fauci-says-football-is-perfect-set-up-for-spreading-coronavirus-COVID-19-147024733/?fbclid=IwAR1ehvFl2pyHUoNhpw-GuYsJZIIRkIVhqDAuKju8IFiH0wxil1aAEPEo4ck

Peace

Richard (CW)

[Basket Case]

Not quite

93889389

If deaths are used as the measurement, then your data doesn't contradict what Terry posted. There were only 5 deaths on Saturday and 1 on Sunday.

[Terry Blue]

That's right

[catmanjack]

Heading towards 100,000 is that enough or ok?

[StuBleedsBlue2]

If deaths are used as the measurement, then your data doesn't contradict what Terry posted. There were only 5 deaths on Saturday and 1 on Sunday.

That's why I said not quite, and part of that was responding to the implication that things are getting better. They are clearly not. Plus, I'm not just talking about deaths, it's about cases. These are numbers you should be seeing going down, not range bound.

States can have a one day abnormality based on when/how they get their reporting. You have to look at trends, not data points. Georgia has cluster day dips on weekends.

[Terry Blue]

100,000 is better than the 2.2 million that was forecast had the President elected to do nothing. People die in those type numbers from car accidents, drug overdoses, flu, pneumonia, too. Poverty kills also. The Treasury Sec said if we don't get things open we risk having permanent damage to the economy

[CitizenBBN]

That's why I said not quite, and part of that was responding to the implication that things are getting better. They are clearly not. Plus, I'm not just talking about deaths, it's about cases. These are numbers you should be seeing going down, not range bound.

States can have a one day abnormality based on when/how they get their reporting. You have to look at trends, not data points. Georgia has cluster day dips on weekends.

Since this is now on the Barber shop, I'll respond.

This wont' get better for a while. Period. Whether we lock down, stay home, open up, stand on our heads or drink pickle juice and lemon.

Waiting for a numeric target that will never come makes it a useless target. It's not going to happen that we see declining cases for 2 weeks straight, and even if we do as soon as we open up more or expand testing that will change. Do we then shut down again? That's completely unrealistic.

So we need to get over it. People are going to die. People died before this started, and they'll die when this is over. It's sad, but it's the reality of life that we have death.

Thus it's only down to what balance we strike between getting on with life and trying to minimize the death toll. And NO, that is not necessarily minimizing the number of cases, as if everyone gets this and lives and we get broad immunity we're far better off than not.

We can't shut down until we get everyone a manufactured vaccine, so we have to find a balance between people getting it but the hospitals having enough capacity to treat Covid patients AND the regular patients. That's the only balance, living life and moving on but not collapsing our health care system.

That's it. That simple. Where we draw that line is of course very tricky, so we'll have to feel our way in steps.

But living in fear in our homes and waiting for drone deliveries of vital food and medicine isn't going to cut it.

Stopping the Nazis and Japanese militarists cost lives. The Spanish Flu cost lives. This will cost lives. We can work to minimize them, but it can't be the only variable in the equation. Otherwise we would have never gone to war in Europe b/c that would have definitely minimized US losses. Sometimes we have to do what we have to do, and right now we need to keep calm and carry on.

As for football, that is so far down my priority list I haven't got words to express it. We need to figure out our economy so we can all basically function. If we can manage that and keep the hospitals functioning successfully with minimum risk to those who work there (by keeping them not overwhelmed and well supplied is about the best we can do), then we'll worry about college campuses and sports of all levels.

[Bakert]

Since this is now on the Barber shop, I'll respond.

This wont' get better for a while. Period. Whether we lock down, stay home, open up, stand on our heads or drink pickle juice and lemon.

Waiting for a numeric target that will never come makes it a useless target. It's not going to happen that we see declining cases for 2 weeks straight, and even if we do as soon as we open up more or expand testing that will change. Do we then shut down again? That's completely unrealistic.

So we need to get over it. People are going to die. People died before this started, and they'll die when this is over. It's sad, but it's the reality of life that we have death.

Thus it's only down to what balance we strike between getting on with life and trying to minimize the death toll. And NO, that is not necessarily minimizing the number of cases, as if everyone gets this and lives and we get broad immunity we're far better off than not.

We can't shut down until we get everyone a manufactured vaccine, so we have to find a balance between people getting it but the hospitals having enough capacity to treat Covid patients AND the regular patients. That's the only balance, living life and moving on but not collapsing our health care system.

That's it. That simple. Where we draw that line is of course very tricky, so we'll have to feel our way in steps.

But living in fear in our homes and waiting for drone deliveries of vital food and medicine isn't going to cut it.

Stopping the Nazis and Japanese militarists cost lives. The Spanish Flu cost lives. This will cost lives. We can work to minimize them, but it can't be the only variable in the equation. Otherwise we would have never gone to war in Europe b/c that would have definitely minimized US losses. Sometimes we have to do what we have to do, and right now we need to keep calm and carry on.

As for football, that is so far down my priority list I haven't got words to express it. We need to figure out our economy so we can all basically function. If we can manage that and keep the hospitals functioning successfully with minimum risk to those who work there (by keeping them not overwhelmed and well supplied is about the best we can do), then we'll worry about college campuses and sports of all levels.

Damn. I guess I need to send back all the pickle juice and lemons I ordered to create "Dr. Baker's Wonderful Coranavirus Cure and Floor Cleaner."

I can't disagree with anything you say. I have a friend who wrote something recently based on what he was hearing in and around DC (he works for the govt) to the effect that by wasting the time we did, we really have no option now but to begin phased openings and simply accept the number of deaths. I think the critical balancing act will be between the number of people who have serious health issues due to the virus and our ability to handle them. Deaths are going to occur, but we need to be able to minimize that number by having a plan as to how we will first maximize what we need to treat people (e.g., ventilators) and how we will go about allocating those resources.

Right now the vast majority of us see video/reporting from NYC and compare that to our empty local hospitals. What some are unfortunately unable to see is those local hospitals getting to where those in NYC have been. Here's hoping that never happens, or if it does it doesn't happen all at once or is more of a "rolling" event so that resources can be utilized where and when needed.

[Bakert]

If deaths are used as the measurement, then your data doesn't contradict what Terry posted. There were only 5 deaths on Saturday and 1 on Sunday.

And 37 on Monday.

If you look at this link (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html; scroll down to the "New reported deaths by day in Georgia" chart) you will notice something interesting. Deaths in Georgia seem to drop significantly on the weekends. That is reflected in the chart Stu posted above if you look at it closely. The point is that what was reported this past Saturday/Sunday is not likely "real" but rather an issue with how deaths are being reported on the weekends.

[Doc]

That's why I said not quite, and part of that was responding to the implication that things are getting better. They are clearly not. Plus, I'm not just talking about deaths, it's about cases. These are numbers you should be seeing going down, not range bound.

States can have a one day abnormality based on when/how they get their reporting. You have to look at trends, not data points. Georgia has cluster day dips on weekends.

Identified cases are a going up because there is an increase in the number identified due to testing. Hard to diagnose an asymptomatic case when there is no testing due to severe limitation as a result of FDA approval delaying production. The relevant numbers for comparison would be "deaths" and "hospitalized". Both are going down. (link (https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936))

I find it intriguing that most who advocate extending the lock down are folks with "essential" jobs or ones who are getting paid despite not working. I have yet to see a barber, waitress or gym owner etc.... hop on the "lets stay shut down" bandwagon. Odds are because most of them have to eat.

[CitizenBBN]

Not sure what time we wasted, at least without the benefit of hindsight.

The Chinese hid this for weeks. That wasted time was crucial. It could have been stopped or vastly slowed if we bottlenecked it right there in Wuhan. By the time any nation even knew to have a meeting about steps to take it was already in the US, Europe, the Middle East, etc.

Sure if we had a psychic in charge maybe we could have helped some, but probably not a lot, and certainly not with mere mortals in charge. There's a reason no nation has really escaped this mess. Some have done a bit better, but I doubt too many have really done better given our international travel, density in cities like New York, and our natural reluctance to breach people's privacy.

It's also clear now that had we started even in December before anyone else that we still wouldn't have enough tests to somehow gain full knowledge of the spread and map it and try to manage it. We dont' have enough now after 2 months or more of full tilt effort and the FDA in full out emergency mode. No way we get tests approved and made in mass quantities back in january. in fact we know this b/c even in February the FDA was operating on a non-war footing with this virus.

Unless we closed the border weeks earlier, way ahead of anyone else and even earlier than the earliest memos warning of a potential issue, and then began serious containment and tracing, this was inevitable.

And even that was in the long run useless b/c there's little chance of stopping this from spreading here and there at the edges, and it's virulent enough that's enough for it to spread in communities. It would have taken far more draconian measures than any free nation was ever going to implement in peace time.

This has always been about SLOWING the rate of infection enough that we could treat those who need treatment and keep hospitals functioning and supplied.

That's all this is. It's not about reducing the number of people who get it in the end, it's about reducing the number who die as we bide time to be able to treat them and find treatments.

A curve of complete stranglehold and then release seems no more effective than a slow and steady approach to the race. In that sense there are things we could have done, but not much that in the end will make much statistical difference in how many get it or even how many die. That's esp. true b/c even our slowest rate of infection is going to be enough that we won't have our best treatments ready and we will lose people. But holding it to near zero for the 6-18 months it may take was never going to happen.

[KSRBEvans]

My WAG is the only way this will be substantially defeated nationwide in our current treatment situation (no therapeutics, no vaccine) is to implement mandatory mass isolation/quarantine measures for positive cases and those who've been in contact with positive cases. And America just isn't ready to go there.

[CitizenBBN]

My WAG is the only way this will be substantially defeated nationwide in our current treatment situation (no therapeutics, no vaccine) is to implement mandatory mass isolation/quarantine measures for positive cases and those who've been in contact with positive cases. And America just isn't ready to go there.

I agree we don't seem willing to go there. when the first Kentucky case came out I questioned why we didn't announce the names so people would know if they had potentially been exposed, but we didn't.

Some of that is our reticence to pierce privacy, some is legal like HIPPA.

Regardless, I doubt that would even do it. Slow it for sure, but only slow it. There would still be too many holes in that net, too many missed contacts, to really do a job on it.

Would we catch every stop at every gas station?

And that's the next level of problem, the math won't let it work. Slow yes, but not stop. Patient Zero goes to grocery, gas station two times and maybe 1-2 other spots in the 14 day window. that's a low number. Now find everyone who could have been exposed.

Two challenges:

1) Now we need to gather everyone's cell phone data to track them, permission or not, bc otherwise we never know who got breathed on at the grocery and gas station. BIG step for this country, rightfully so.

2) let's say we do that. Now we need to quarantine not just that Patient zero but everyone they contacted. Do we then quarantine everyone THOSE people contacted? Then that 3rd layer?

The math quickly grows out of proportion. We would have to live with quarantining level 1 contact with a known infected person and maybe those in their households. That's a large number, but still won't catch where else it has spread b/c it will still have gotten to some level 2 people if this went on a week or more.

So it would slow the spread for sure, but only slow an ever increasing level of infection.

And it may be our best option, versus just quarantining everyone as we are doing now. But it will lead to more deaths than locking everyone down no matter what we do, it just will.

We also accept that allowing people to travel whenever they want for non-essential purposes kills tens of thousands a year, but we arent' willing to tell people they can't go visit grandma or the beach without permission, so we live with the tradeoff. We accept that people can have private pools despite the deaths that result, b/c we choose that balance.

We just have to find a new balance. Not a good one, not one we want, but one we must choose to make.

[Bakert]

I find it intriguing that most who advocate extending the lock down are folks with "essential" jobs or ones who are getting paid despite not working. I have yet to see a barber, waitress or gym owner etc.... hop on the "lets stay shut down" bandwagon. Odds are because most of them have to eat.

A recent Economist/YouGov poll suggests it may not matter. On page 44 in the document linked below there is very little difference across reported income groups with regard to when it will be safe to open the economy. While there are differences across the different alternatives, as would be expected, that does not appear to be a function of income.

The same is true for age with one exception, that being that there are more younger respondents who chose "in a month or so" than other age groups. But there are fewer young respondents who suggested it is safe right now.

Granted, income and age are not perfect proxies for what you suggest, but I would imagine there is a pretty good correlation.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5yope37lqh/econTabReport.pdf

This is more or less corroborated by a Morning Consult poll. See page 29.

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2004100_crosstabs_CONTENT_CORONAVIRUS_RVs_v2_JB.pd f

[bigsky]

No school in Cali this fall. So much for the Pac 12, eh?

[Bakert]

No school in Cali this fall. So much for the Pac 12, eh?

Just saw that. In the article I read they included a link to a list being kept at the Chronicla of Higher Education of schools who have made announcements. May be something interest to follow.

FWIW, all universities being monitored, 70% have said they will be in-person, 13% have yet to decide, 8% are planning for online, 5% are proposing a hybrid model, and 4.6% are considering a range of scenarios, which to me sounds like "have yet to decide.

https://www.chronicle.com/article/Here-s-a-List-of-Colleges-/248626

[CitizenBBN]

No school in Cali this fall. So much for the Pac 12, eh?

Will anyone notice they aren't playing?

[Doc]

Will anyone notice they aren't playing?

Come on man..... Conference of Champioms

[CitizenBBN]

Come on man..... Conference of Champioms

When Sonny and Cher were on the air maybe.

[Doc]

When Sonny and Cher were on the air maybe.

Before Bill Walton found LSD