Mitch Barnhart: UK planning on football in the Fall

[Darrell KSR]

@JonHale_CJ: From last night: Mitch Barnhart told season ticket holders in an email yesterday UK is "planning for football in the fall." https://bit.ly/2zzSAio

[KeithKSR]

Some of the alternate seasons make little sense. Pushing the season into beginning during cold and flu season would make it difficult to play the season if their is a Covid 19 re-emergence.

[Terry Blue]

Yes Sir We're Playing Football! May 1 deadline to renew season tickets

[StuBleedsBlue2]

It's great that they are planning, and the administration needs the money, but if they're married to the idea of fans in the stands as a requirement to play football, they better have a Plan B, Plan C, and so on. Do people think that college sports will put fans in seats before the pros?

If anyone is actually following the data, projections are getting worse, not better. Plus, there hasn't been any modeling to determine the impact of a 2nd wave. Inputs to the models are getting better too, fewer assumptions.

I want football and normalcy just as much as anyone else (well, maybe not everyone), and I have plans to attend large gatherings in the fall, but the reality is the reality. Planning is being driven by hope and miracles, but I totally understand why it has to be done.

I'm not sure this is anything more than a hopeful money grab.

[KSRBEvans]

As I said in the other thread (http://www.kysportsreport.com/forums/showthread.php?55568-Big-12-Commish-Suggests), they should be planning for that, but the odds of them playing a full schedule in the fall like 2019 is slim IMHO.

[KeithKSR]

By early June spread of Covid-19 will be way down. Heat and humidity are detrimental to any virus, which is why the flu is nearly nonexistent in summer months. The second wave isn’t as worrisome as a reemergence during the next cold and flu season, which isn’t being mentioned at all. The lack of herd immunity makes the next cold and flu system a real dangerous time for the virus to kick back into high gear.

Projected deaths are up in large part because of the policy of listing COD as Covid-19 if at all possible, even in untested people. People following the trend line of the model have probably noted the curve still flattens the first week of June and death rates are not seen as increasing in any significant number, but prior death rates have increased.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[Bakert]

I'm planning to start dating Alica Schmidt in the fall. :)

https://www.bellazon.com/main/uploads/monthly_2019_11/image.thumb.png.6294b405a90afc15f60f23b26a5f1ec7.p ng

[catmanjack]

I am sure there are countries in their summer heat months that are still seeing the virus so I do not think the medical field truly knows if heat will control it.

[Bakert]

By early June spread of Covid-19 will be way down. Heat and humidity are detrimental to any virus, which is why the flu is nearly nonexistent in summer months. The second wave isn’t as worrisome as a reemergence during the next cold and flu season, which isn’t being mentioned at all. The lack of herd immunity makes the next cold and flu system a real dangerous time for the virus to kick back into high gear.

Projected deaths are up in large part because of the policy of listing COD as Covid-19 if at all possible, even in untested people. People following the trend line of the model have probably noted the curve still flattens the first week of June and death rates are not seen as increasing in any significant number, but prior death rates have increased.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Just FWIW, the model assumes continuation of social distancing. From the FAQ page:

Beginning April 17, our model no longer assumes any future changes in social distancing mandates. To learn more, visit our estimation update for April 17.

Note that our model does not yet reflect how easing or lifting social distancing measures could increase COVID-19 infections and deaths.

So, if we continue with social distancing the projections made by the model might hold. If we relax social distancing, the model predictions would likely change.

[KeithKSR]

Just FWIW, the model assumes continuation of social distancing. From the FAQ page:

Beginning April 17, our model no longer assumes any future changes in social distancing mandates. To learn more, visit our estimation update for April 17.

Note that our model does not yet reflect how easing or lifting social distancing measures could increase COVID-19 infections and deaths.

So, if we continue with social distancing the projections made by the model might hold. If we relax social distancing, the model predictions would likely change.

I know it sounds counterintuitive, but social distancing can ultimately result in more death, as it prevents herd immunity.

While I do think the season will be able to begin as scheduled that doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see packed stadiums. It is relatively easy to test football teams, coaches, announcers and officials. Testing 100K fans would be much more difficult.

[CitizenBBN]

You mean, in the midst of trying to sell millions of dollars in product, he's going to say the product will in fact be delivered?

Wow, imagine that. No moss growing on that guy.

Now, where's that sarcasm font....

I'm planning on going back to in person as well as online auctions too, and staying with my current format as I perceive this to be temporary. That doesn't mean it is or that I'll be going back to it on the timeframe I expect.

The truth is Mitch, nor anyone else, has a freaking clue. This hand wringing from some corners (a small corner on here) that somehow football might be interrupted by a once in a century global disaster is comical to me.

We have no idea, we won't have an idea for a while, and all Mitch or anyone can do is plan for being ready and see what happens between now and then. His strategy is sound, but he better not spend that season ticket money just yet.

And I know 99.9% of people on here know that to be the case. But the other part is cracking me up at this point. lol.

[MickintheHam]

I fully expect college football in September

[Bakert]

I know it sounds counterintuitive, but social distancing can ultimately result in more death, as it prevents herd immunity.

Not sure if I would agree with "more deaths" as that would only be the case if social distancing were to continue for a very long time.

Sweden has been in the news a lot the past couple of days due to their not having really closed down. And the numbers support that:

Sweden has registered 18,926 coronavirus cases and 2,274 deaths among its population of 10.3 million people.

Denmark has had 9,049 cases and 427 deaths in a population of 5.8 million, Norway 7,599 cases and 206 deaths among its 5.4 million people, and Finland 4,695 cases and 193 deaths in its population of 5.5 million.

So even though having only twice as many people as those countries, Sweden has reported about 4.5, 10 , and 11 times more deaths than Denmark, Norway, and Finaland, respectively.

Will Sweden achieve herd immunity, see their incidence rate drop such that over time the others catch up? Maybe, but maybe not.

It is estimated that about 26% of Sweden's population has been infected, still a ways to go to achieve a meaningful number of infected/immune.

Has it worked? Even with staying more open, Sweden's economy is expected to contract by about 7% this year.



While I do think the season will be able to begin as scheduled that doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see packed stadiums. It is relatively easy to test football teams, coaches, announcers and officials. Testing 100K fans would be much more difficult.

This assumes the test kits are available and people who really need them have access. I, for one, would hate to see a loved one denied a test so that a third string defensive tackle could get one.

Furthermore, what happens if/when the day of the game your starting QB shows up with a fever but has no significant other issues? In other words, they could play but there is a chance of them being infected?

I'm a part of the athletic/education industrial complex, I desperately want to see football this fall as that will bring back students. But I am not confident it will happen. Having said that, I hope in September as we prepare for week 3 you are all throwing tomatoes at me! :)

[Bakert]

I fully expect college football in September

I hope you are correct because in addition to seeing football, we will be seeing the DBTs!! :)

[MickintheHam]

Univ of AL has announced it will have in person instruction on Campus this autumn. I believe most public universities in the South will follow suit very soon.

[ETWNAPPEL]

I fully expect college football in September

As do I. And for the record, as part of my job I am following the government models and projections twice daily.

[ShoesSwayedBlue]

Some of the alternate seasons make little sense. Pushing the season into beginning during cold and flu season would make it difficult to play the season if their is a Covid 19 re-emergence.

Since when has it SUBmerged?

[KeithKSR]

Univ of AL has announced it will have in person instruction on Campus this autumn. I believe most public universities in the South will follow suit very soon.

It is harder to panic Southerners.

[KeithKSR]

Since when has it SUBmerged?

It is in the process. Social distancing is more myth than reality, all you have to do is visit a local big box store and you will see hundreds come and go in a short time.

[anderwt]

I think a few things that really hasn’t changed through all this is..

-it is very contagious, like crazy contagious.
-It hits the nursing homes and our older generation something awful(gotta assume of the 58k in deaths, most are over 65)
-More have had this than we thought, which means the mortality rate is way way lower than we will really ever know probably.


The positives are, Smart people all over the country are getting close to the vaccine and treatment for it.. When I say close, i think by September close according to CNN reports today from Oxford and Germany.

[StuBleedsBlue2]

It is harder to panic Southerners.

That's one way to put it.

[anderwt]

As do I. And for the record, as part of my job I am following the government models and projections twice daily.

ET this is the first time I have seen you this positive, which is refreshing lol... what are you seeing that makes you feel this way?

[Bakert]

The positives are, Smart people all over the country are getting close to the vaccine and treatment for it.. When I say close, i think by September close according to CNN reports today from Oxford and Germany.

To that point:

Some possible good news?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...imary-endpoint

"Gilead Sciences Inc. said early results from a U.S.-government-run study showed its experimental drug to treat coronavirus helped patients recover more quickly than standard care, suggesting it could become the first effective treatment for an illness that has turned modern life inside-out.

Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID and the government’s top infectious-disease specialist, said at a White House meeting with President Donald Trump and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards that the trial showed a significant positive effect on the virus and that the results “were quite good news.”"

[Terry Blue]

Thanks, was going to post about the encouraging news on the treatment and we're still 4 months away from first game. Guess you guys know that whoever dies WITH Covid is listed as dying OF Covid although they may have died of another primary cause. 94% of deaths happen to people with at least one other possible terminal factor. Also that hospitals are paid extra for patients diagnosed with Covid. Not confirmed but told that for every Covid diagnosed patient at Shelbyville Hospital, the facility get $17,000! These items plus the idea that there are thousands of undiagnosed folks walking around leads to the conclusion that the Covid and flu death rates are very similar

[KeithKSR]

Bakert, aren’t you at Alabama?

[anderwt]

Thanks
To that point:

Some possible good news?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...imary-endpoint

"Gilead Sciences Inc. said early results from a U.S.-government-run study showed its experimental drug to treat coronavirus helped patients recover more quickly than standard care, suggesting it could become the first effective treatment for an illness that has turned modern life inside-out.

Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID and the government’s top infectious-disease specialist, said at a White House meeting with President Donald Trump and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards that the trial showed a significant positive effect on the virus and that the results “were quite good news.”"

We will be a full go by September IMO not because of sports. It’s because of the Presidential election this November. No way I trust the political system to vote the next president on a mail in ballot from either side..

[StuBleedsBlue2]

To that point:

Some possible good news?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...imary-endpoint

"Gilead Sciences Inc. said early results from a U.S.-government-run study showed its experimental drug to treat coronavirus helped patients recover more quickly than standard care, suggesting it could become the first effective treatment for an illness that has turned modern life inside-out.

Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID and the government’s top infectious-disease specialist, said at a White House meeting with President Donald Trump and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards that the trial showed a significant positive effect on the virus and that the results “were quite good news.”"

Treatment is a tremendous first step. Assuming this works, it's just a race between easing too quickly and the 2nd wave and getting to market. Treatments are a return to mostly normal ways of lives, but adopting some of the hygienic measures permanently.

I've heard a lot about companies already making investments and partnering with researchers to flip the switch on mass producing vaccines, but I haven't heard much about treatments and what ramp up times, capacity and such look like.

[Bakert]

Bakert, aren’t you at Alabama?

Yep.

Why?

[KeithKSR]

Yep.

Why?

Have you heard what Mick reported about a return to in person classes at Alabama this fall?

[Bakert]

Have you heard what Mick reported about a return to in person classes at Alabama this fall?

There was an article in the paper that sort of said we would be returning in the fall with students in class. It said:

“We are expecting to have a fall semester at all of our universities,” St. John (NOTE: His Excellency Finis E. St. John, IV, the Chancellor of the UA system) told AL.com in an interview on Wednesday. “We are expecting it to be on the regular schedule. We understand that things could happen that make it impossible, but that’s what we are planning for at this time.”

The announcement comes after almost two months of remote instruction for the University of Alabama students at the system’s three campuses. How classes will be conducted safely is still up in the air, the chancellor said.

“Now, what will be the parameters of that?" St. John said. "Will it be smaller classes where you alternate between in-person and online? Will you have the option to be in-person or online? All of these things are being decided by the task force and guided by the safety of the students.”

Given that univeristy administrators are responsible for making the final decision, I am guessing it will be an option to be in-person or online since that is the dumbest possible option.

https://www.al.com/education/2020/04/university-of-alabama-planning-to-reopen-for-fall-we-fully-expect-to-have-on-campus-instruction.html

But there has been no formal announcement from the University. As of yet, there has been no formal decision regarding second summer session.

[dan_bgblue]

I'm planning to start dating Alica Schmidt in the fall. :)

https://www.bellazon.com/main/uploads/monthly_2019_11/image.thumb.png.6294b405a90afc15f60f23b26a5f1ec7.p ng

When are you planning on figuring out what you will do with it once you catch it?

[MickintheHam]

It is harder to panic Southerners.

You are exactly right. Most of the chicken littles are Yankees.

[VirginiaCat]

I'm planning to start dating Alica Schmidt in the fall. :)

https://www.bellazon.com/main/uploads/monthly_2019_11/image.thumb.png.6294b405a90afc15f60f23b26a5f1ec7.p ng

I need to watch more Track and Field

[MickintheHam]

We have been discussing the drug in the barber shop for a couple of weeks. It was developed here in Birmingham at UAB and tested at hospitals throughout the country. It has tremendous potential to block the virus and to treat it successfully. Dr. Fauci has been very bullish on the drug and believes it has great potential to change the direction of the pandemic. He believes there is clear cut evidence the drug works.

I am extremely surprised to see so much expressed pessimism about life going forward. There are a lot of positive developments in the fight against the Covid 19. I am concerned about the virus cases in nursing homes, but I believe for the rest of the populace the return to normal life is in the near future as opposed to being a year or more out.


To that point:

Some possible good news?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...imary-endpoint

"Gilead Sciences Inc. said early results from a U.S.-government-run study showed its experimental drug to treat coronavirus helped patients recover more quickly than standard care, suggesting it could become the first effective treatment for an illness that has turned modern life inside-out.

Anthony Fauci, the head of NIAID and the government’s top infectious-disease specialist, said at a White House meeting with President Donald Trump and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards that the trial showed a significant positive effect on the virus and that the results “were quite good news.”"