Revised IHME projections: <100 COVID deaths/day in US by 5/23, 0 by 6/19

[KSRBEvans]

9307

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

May it be so.

[dan_bgblue]

Are they assuming that a viable Vax is gonna be available and everyone gets a dose by then?

If that is not part of their thinking, I can not agree with their projection. Just do not see it running it's course by then

[KSRBEvans]

^Dan, I'm guessing they're assuming no vaccine by then. The medical types can speak to this better than I can, but it's my understanding that a vaccine probably won't be ready for general use for another year or so. The hope is for some type of therapeutic treatment to bridge the gap until a vaccine is available.

Regardless, I don't think they're assuming either will be available in the next couple of months. That's just how they see this running its course, at least in the short term. I agree with you, I'd be surprised if that comes to pass, but I sure hope it's true.

[KSRBEvans]

Here's a PDF from IHME on why their projections have changed:

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/Estimation_update_040520_1.pdf

As a layman whose thoughts on this is "Math is hard," it seems they're getting more and better data which is giving them better projections.

[UKHistory]

Don't think there will be a vaccine that soon. I am all for getting this done. My mother and step father are recovering from it. They were quite ill with high fevers but the virus is slowly dying out.

As soon as it is safe to get back to work, let's get to work.

I just don't want to put people in harm's way.

If with better stats we have more accurate information that predicts fewer deaths--what great news. I'd rather people be cautious to protect lives than be wreckless.

Again with my own family, this thing has been real on the life and death thing. After 2:30 this afternoon we will see how things are on the financial side in my family.

[ukpumacat]

I will dig into it but you might know this answer. Does their chart assume we are still in stay at home orders until then?

[dan_bgblue]

I am not expecting a vaccine anytime soon, and only threw that in he original post because IMO that is that is the only way we will meet their deadline. I know that the virus has a life cycle that will eventually cause it to become less virulent or it's potency has been defeated by the body's natural antibodies which is why the normal flu constantly mutates from one season to the next but I just do not think we will be at either point by the end of June. jmho

[CitizenBBN]

I will dig into it but you might know this answer. Does their chart assume we are still in stay at home orders until then?

That's my question. I don't see how it stalls out unless we all keep avoiding each other, which is pretty unworkable for a vaccine in 18 months.

[KeithKSR]

I will dig into it but you might know this answer. Does their chart assume we are still in stay at home orders until then?

I would think it makes the assumption of a status quo on all of the current distancing protocols.

[Doc]

A wide use vax is a year away.....6 months if fast tracked

[ukpumacat]

I would think it makes the assumption of a status quo on all of the current distancing protocols.

Me too. I have looked for modeling to show what will happen when those restrictions let up and I haven't found much.

[CitizenBBN]

Me too. I have looked for modeling to show what will happen when those restrictions let up and I haven't found much.

B/c those numbers are too depressing. We're worried about families spending this much time together already. ;)

[ukpumacat]

B/c those numbers are too depressing. We're worried about families spending this much time together already. ;)

Ha.

More good news: they updated their model again this morning.
Now predicting 30,000 less deaths nationally than they were last week. Also moved up the worst day to be Friday. Most of this is because of New York looking much better.

[KSRBEvans]

At the top of their page they're now saying their projections are based on continued social distancing through May:

9308

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[ukpumacat]

At the top of their page they're now saying their projections are based on continued social distancing through May:

9308

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Thanks. That is interesting for a few reasons:
1. Makes for a good debate whether they mean “through” May 1st or “through” May 31st. I think the latter.
2. I looked at California for instance. They are predicting 0 deaths after May 16th.
3. They show 0 deaths AFTER the restrictions are let up in May. None in June. None in July. This doesn’t seem possible. But I’m very curious why they show that.
Is their thought that if we keep these restrictions “through May” that it will have completely burned out? I can’t imagine that will happen. But I’m very curious.

[UKHistory]

Through May should mean May 31, 2020 11:59 PM. To be precise.

That is exciting. If that happens based on science and not a rush to open the beaches ala Jaws, I think we are good in California.

Hopeful we get back to a sense of normal. Hopeful we properly assess what we need when the next such crisis hits the world.

[kingcat]

Hopeful we properly assess what we need when the next such crisis hits the world.

Global coordination is the only possible deterrent for an enemy such as this. Blame and mistrust, even justified, accomplishes nothing. No one who has any love in their heart wants a scourge like this in the world. It hits home for royalty and paupers alike.

[CitizenBBN]

Thanks. That is interesting for a few reasons:
1. Makes for a good debate whether they mean “through” May 1st or “through” May 31st. I think the latter.
2. I looked at California for instance. They are predicting 0 deaths after May 16th.
3. They show 0 deaths AFTER the restrictions are let up in May. None in June. None in July. This doesn’t seem possible. But I’m very curious why they show that.
Is their thought that if we keep these restrictions “through May” that it will have completely burned out? I can’t imagine that will happen. But I’m very curious.

Like you I find it hard to imagine this will 100% burn out even under the current conditions.

I hope they're right, but I'm bracing for worse. It may fall dramatically so we can reopen some, but what about foreign travel? I can't imagine it won't flare up until we get a vacinne and can simply cut off the supply of new victims.

[kingcat]

I wish we could stay locked down through June and see no more deaths from the thing.....and then have the biggest independence day the world has ever seen.

With God's blessing maybe we can.


That is second to the Lords return of course.

[ukpumacat]

Agree with everything being said. I am also skeptical. I do have hope. But I just am overly curious why they have that as 0 deaths.

They certainly know there will not be a vaccine by then.

Maybe their reply would be that they are only gauging the "worst times" to prepare governments but they don't mean to say there will be no deaths after?

[ukpumacat]

Here is a model in Australia I found. They have contained theirs for the most part. According to this model, they cannot lift the restrictions until there are ZERO cases found. According to the expert, if one person has it it goes two 2. And then just doubles exponentially. This is what Wuhan did. They had zero cases and then lifted the ban.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/new-coronavirus-cases-in-australia-could-number-almost-zero-by-july-modelling-suggests

[ukpumacat]

This is a fantastic interview with the CDC Director that likely helps explain the model. He believes the virus will die down at the end of Spring. And likely will come back in late Fall/Early Winter. I know we have heard this before, but he says it in a more "Expertly" way. Ha

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/31/824155179/cdc-director-on-models-for-the-months-to-come-this-virus-is-going-to-be-with-us

[KeithKSR]

Here is a model in Australia I found. They have contained theirs for the most part. According to this model, they cannot lift the restrictions until there are ZERO cases found. According to the expert, if one person has it it goes two 2. And then just doubles exponentially. This is what Wuhan did. They had zero cases and then lifted the ban.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/new-coronavirus-cases-in-australia-could-number-almost-zero-by-july-modelling-suggests

Australia will soon be entering their cold and flu season.

[ukpumacat]

Australia will soon be entering their cold and flu season.

Good point.