Dorian

[KSRBEvans]

Floridians, I know you're old hands at this hurricane stuff, but stay safe as the storm approaches early next week.

[Darrell KSR]

Just saw they're now predicting a Cat 4 to hit the East coast. Yikes.

[Doc]

Expected to hit Vero. My daughter is a dispatcher for Vero PD. Future son in law is a police office for Feldsmere which is just north of Vero. They are hunkered down. I fly back into Palm Beach Sat night at midnight (I am in MN at the Mayo clinic with my father). I am hoping my flight gets in without delay as my wife is home alone and her going thru a hurricane would not be good for me because it would somehow be my fault

[dan_bgblue]

I have talked to a few of my clients today and 4 of them have cancelled plans to visit Florida this weekend and next week. Looking at the available weather data, my prediction is that your flight should land in some breezy and probably rainy weather. However, if you do not have an overriding reason to get back to Stuart and your wife is good traveling alone then I would call her and ask her to pack a few changes of clothes for you and for her, and tell her to head for Atlanta on Sat morning and you change your plane ticket from a Florida one to one in Atalanta.

Watching a national news broadcast last night led me to believe that if you have not bought your obligatory 10 gallons of bottled water, 10 cases of beer and a case of Cheetos and raman noodles then you are sol for the foreseeable future in Florida. They showed one lady walking around a grocery store with mostly empty shelves carrying a taped up sack of Cat food that looked like it had been run over by a truck, 2, 16 ounce bottles of water and what looked like a quart of olive oil. I got the impression that she had decided to stock up before the storm hit and when she got there that was all that was left and she was not walking out empty handed.

[Doc]

I got my flight switched so I fly into West Palm Sat at 2:40 pm rather than midnight. Gives me time to put up shutters, then watch the game on delay....then head out for some night time beer and college football

[Doc]

I have talked to a few of my clients today and 4 of them have cancelled plans to visit Florida this weekend and next week. Looking at the available weather data, my prediction is that your flight should land in some breezy and probably rainy weather. However, if you do not have an overriding reason to get back to Stuart and your wife is good traveling alone then I would call her and ask her to pack a few changes of clothes for you and for her, and tell her to head for Atlanta on Sat morning and you change your plane ticket from a Florida one to one in Atalanta.

Watching a national news broadcast last night led me to believe that if you have not bought your obligatory 10 gallons of bottled water, 10 cases of beer and a case of Cheetos and raman noodles then you are sol for the foreseeable future in Florida. They showed one lady walking around a grocery store with mostly empty shelves carrying a taped up sack of Cat food that looked like it had been run over by a truck, 2, 16 ounce bottles of water and what looked like a quart of olive oil. I got the impression that she had decided to stock up before the storm hit and when she got there that was all that was left and she was not walking out empty handed.

Yeah, some act like uts the zombie apocalypse. They buy more water than they drink in a year, fill up with gas a 4 days before the storm so they run out on storm day....etc. Then 30 min after the storm get in line for free water.

[Darrell KSR]

Dang, the latest shows it going directly through Stuart.

Be careful, Doc. 8336

[suncat05]

I am a bit further south but still pretty much on line with Doc's location. And if this storm slows down to 5 miles per hour or slower, we will absolutely get pummeled over here.
Honestly, I expect my house to suffer major damage. It will withstand up to a Cat 3, but sustained winds with gusts way over that intermittently over possibly a 24 hour period, and I will be homeless.
I don't need this, not this close to retirement. But this is the hand I've been dealt, so I have to deal with it.

[Doc]

Dang, the latest shows it going directly through Stuart.

Be careful, Doc. 8336

Yep.....that line runs right thru my roof

[Doc]

Me....https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190830/8adadb2a4cc12f52e95e51dca1bf92d5.jpg

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[kingcat]

Prayers for the safety of you, your family and friends in the area. As well as the whole of Florida.

[Darrell KSR]

Me....https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190830/8adadb2a4cc12f52e95e51dca1bf92d5.jpg

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Oh, man...Prayers and good thoughts for you, Doc.

[BigBluePappy]

Prayers for all of our Florida brethren.
You guys stay safe, you hear!

[Darrell KSR]

I am a bit further south but still pretty much on line with Doc's location. And if this storm slows down to 5 miles per hour or slower, we will absolutely get pummeled over here.
Honestly, I expect my house to suffer major damage. It will withstand up to a Cat 3, but sustained winds with gusts way over that intermittently over possibly a 24 hour period, and I will be homeless.
I don't need this, not this close to retirement. But this is the hand I've been dealt, so I have to deal with it.

I heard the latest forecast had it going further south, Suncat. Be safe, friend.

[blueboss]

Me....https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190830/8adadb2a4cc12f52e95e51dca1bf92d5.jpg

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I saw that screen shot and it took me back. I used to live a couple miles north of the Jensen Beach causeway on Hutchison Island, Atlantis 3 Condo’s.

I rode out Hurricane David in 1979, in Rio. (pronounced Rye’o for those not familiar)...

Hunker down!!


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[Catfan73]

You Florida guys all stay safe. Im sure LG&E and KU are already heading that way.

[dan_bgblue]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/234529_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[KentuckyWildcat]

Prayers guys

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[Doc]

You want to know how bad the focast/prediction is? Jim Cantore is here in Stuart. I am at the Rochester Airport now, heading home. ETA 2:30....time to clean garage so I can get both cars in, and put up shutters assuming I can find where the previous owner put the nuts. Our first storm in new house

[Doc]

Have the democrats blamed Trump yet? Have the GOP blamed Obama? And will Obama take credit if it turns before hitting FL? Although it is possible that Trump blew it off the coast since he has enough wind, and he want border security

Seriously, last update has it turning before hitting FL which is best case for me. Hope it does then drops in intensity before making landfall in Ga or north. Best would be a U turn before hitting anything but the bahamas

[Doc]

My pbm is I have a fantasy draft on Sunday and 2 on Monday

[Darrell KSR]

Have the democrats blamed Trump yet? Have the GOP blamed Obama? And will Obama take credit if it turns before hitting FL? Although it is possible that Trump blew it off the coast since he has enough wind, and he want border security

Seriously, last update has it turning before hitting FL which is best case for me. Hope it does then drops in intensity before making landfall in Ga or north. Best would be a U turn before hitting anything but the bahamasHoping that latest forecast stays true (or even better)...

[Doc]

Hoping that latest forecast stays true (or even better)...

If not I may head your way...LOL

Right now I am delayed in Chicago

[blueboss]

I thought I heard where NHC has issued a mandatory evacuations for Martin Co. (low lying areas) which everything in Martin Co is low lying. The current forecast has it following a similar path as David, where it came in between W. Palm and Jupiter, then hugged the entire east coast coast of Fl. before making its way up the entire eastern seaboard.




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[suncat05]

Hey Doc! Guess who I saw on TV this morning from Stuart, Florida?
Jim Cantore.......😁

[suncat05]

On the possible bright side (for us over here on the west side of Lake Okeechobee), almost all of the forecast models have this thing turning north before it touches the east coast.
At least that's what the forecast says now.

[Darrell KSR]

If not I may head your way...LOL

Right now I am delayed in ChicagoCome on. I'll have my house with my son and daughter, or I will have a hotel room in Jackson. Your choice!

[Doc]

Lastest is it is suppose to crank north offshore. Would be huge if so. Will still get hammered but not with Wall Wind. Still expecting 100 mph winds which I have experienced. Anything Cat 2 or less is just a good storm. 3 causes concern and 4/5 is "poop your pants"

[Doc]

Come on. I'll have my house with my son and daughter, or I will have a hotel room in Jackson. Your choice!

If we lose juice for more than a day, we will exit north til we find 1) power and 2) a room

[blueboss]

Hey Doc! Guess who I saw on TV this morning from Stuart, Florida?
Jim Cantore.......😁

Saw that, a friend of mine down there just posted a photo of Cantore at the House of Refuge down towards the Bathtub.


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[blueboss]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190901/4687e3a072cf25443e65335570296687.jpg


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[dan_bgblue]

Where's Jim?

[Catonahottinroof]

He should be on a boat off the Atlantic Coast about now....
Where's Jim?

[suncat05]

The high pressure front moving northwest opened up the way for Hurricane Dorian to stay further out to sea and turn northward.
I hope it stays like this.
And I feel for the folks in the Bahamas and the Carolinas.

And I am certainly glad that I will likely not be homeless going into retirement.

And let's all not forget that this storm is still unpredictable and a long way from being over.

[suncat05]

I meant northeast, not northwest. Apologies.

[Darrell KSR]

Now Cat 5, 180 mph. Please stay over water.

[Doc]

We are now wihin cone for 110 mph winds. That I will take

[Doc]

suncat looks to be out of the woods. Me, not so much. Predicting 90% chance of hurricane force winds. 4-7 foot storm surge (far less than I expected... and good because I'm about 20 feet above sea level, and about 1/2 mile from the Indian River, which for those unfamiliar with FL geography, the Indian river basically the edge of FL. Just off the coach is the "barrier islands" (for us that is Hutchison and Jupiter). Between the barrier islands and FL proper is the Indian River. And in theory we have 2 segments of land between us and the ocean to block the surge. Hutchenson Island and Sewell's point with is a pennisula as the St Lucie Inlet

[dan_bgblue]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/220614_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[blueboss]

Looking more and more like the exact same track that David took in Sept 1979 straight up FL’s entire east coast starting just north of Palm Beach.

Hunker down...


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[suncat05]

Back on duty at the EOC. Brought enough clothes to get me through about 5 days.
I think I will likely only be here max 3 days.
But as slow as this storm is moving, and as unpredictable as it has been, it is really hard to tell how long I will be here.
Prayers and best wishes for Doc and any of our KSR family in any of the affected areas.

[suncat05]

Good news! I will be released at 2 PM today and we're back to regular business tomorrow.

And very, very thankful that what happened in the Bahamas did not happen to us. Because it could have.
Prayers for those folks there. 🙏

[Doc]

I have been laughi g at the TV coverage. Watching Weather Channel, Fox, etc......it is no womder the media has so little credibility. I am not referring to the build up as this was a powerful storm and had it actually hit FL it would have been devastating, but it didn't yet the media is intent on making it into something it wasn't. I sat and watch Jim Cantore and other on the scene weather experts getting windwhipped on TV yet I was maybe a mile away with my door open, walking my dog down the street. They repeatedly and continually showed the effects in Freeport Bahama while talking FL in an effort to make its impact far greater. We literally had occasional feeder bands lasting maybe 15 min with fairly hard rain and moderate winds (30 mph). That is it yet the perception via TV is something totally different. I hate when the narative directs the story. Just report it accurately, not what you want it to be

[blueboss]

Thankfully it made the turn early, plus sadly for Freeport, sitting there for a day and half helped to weaken it....


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[dan_bgblue]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/220614_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Wish I had a big black sharpie

[Catfan73]

Hope all you guys in Alabama came out okay!