CitizenBBN
01-06-2013, 04:09 PM
I know the gun debate has taken over the board, but these stats are very interesting, and surprising in some ways, and it is after all a nationally very hot topic.
This study was done in 1991 and 1997 by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, updated in 2001. Most recent data on their site.
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/fuo.pdf
Some very interesting numbers. Sorry formatting isn't ideal.
Percent of prison inmates
Armed during
Ever used orEver armed while
current offense
possessed firearmcommitting offense
Type of firearm
FederalState
FederalStateFederalState
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Firearm
18.4%
14.8%
25.1%
20.0%
46.9%
48.9%
Handgun
15.3
12.8
21.3
17.2
36.0
38.6
Rifle
1.3
1.3
2.0
1.9
12.4
14.6
Shotgun
2.4
2.0
3.5
3.0
13.7
15.6
Other
0.5
0.6
1.1
0.9
2.7
2.3
No firearm
81.6%
85.2%
74.9%
80.0%
53.1%
51.1%
Note: Detail do not add to total because inmates may have had more than one firearm.
Only 1.3% of crimes involved rifles of any kind. You know, the guns we're trying to ban. It gets worse for their case:
Armed during
Ever armed while
Ever used or
Specific
current offense
committing offense
possessed firearm
type of firearm
FederalState
FederalState
FederalState
Single shot
9.9%
7.3%
14.2%
10.6%
31.0%
31.4%
Conventional semiautomatic
7.9
7.7
10.9
9.8
22.6
26.0
Military-style semiautomatic
or fully automatic
1.5
1.7
2.5
2.3
5.6
5.6
Percent of prison
inmates carrying a
firearm during current
Type of firearm
State
Federal
Handgun
83.20%
86.7%
Rifle
7.3
8.9
Shotgun
13.1
13.7
Single shot
53.90%
49.2%
Conventional
semiautomatic
43.2
51.8
Military-style
semiautomatic
6.8
9.3
Fully automatic
2.4
3.8
Number of inmates 190,383
190383
12,936
More crimes were committed with single shot guns (derringers, revolvers, lever action, pump action, bolt action) than with semi-autos at the state level, about the same on the federal level.
"Assault weapons" use was FAR less than what would be classified mostly as "hunting and sporting guns" and revolvers, none of which are on anyone's target list even Illinois. More people are killed, no doubt children included, by non-semi autos than by "assault weapons" or "weapons of war", and "semiautomatic weapons" of all kinds aren't any more dangerous than hunting guns.
I'm not surprised at the low numbers for long guns nor the exceptionally low numbers for "military style" weapons. I'm SHOCKED that non-semi autos are the same or higher in use in crimes. Also note that "military weapon" use for legal guns wasn't terribly higher than NFA full auto weapons, which are heavily regulated and exactly what Feinstein wants to do with military style guns. Also the number of those guns is TINY as a percentage of guns out there. Those guns are all being stolen.
Some other numbers, on how weapons were obtained by those criminals:
Percent of State
prison inmates who possessed a firearm during current offense
Source of firearms
1997
1991
Total
100.0%
100.0%
Purchased or traded
from retail outlet
13.9%
20.8%
Retail store
8.3
14.7
Pawnshop
3.8
4.2
Flea market
1.0
1.3
Gun show
0.7
0.6
Family or friend
39.6%
33.8%
Purchased or traded
12.8
13.5
Rented or borrowed
18.5
10.1
Other
8.3
10.2
Street/illegal source
39.2%
40.8%
Theft or burglary
9.9
10.5
Drug dealer/off street
20.8
22.5
Fence/black market
8.4
7.8
Other
7.4%
4.6%
As you can see, guns were either stolen or obtained from close associates like family/friends. Almost none from gun shows or flea markets.
Of those obtained through friends/family, which presumably this "background check on all transfers' would target, only 13% were actually sold, the rest were just given or stolen from them. Given they just gave a gun to someone they knew who was either a criminal or was going to be one, how likely is it they'd run a NICS check on them? They'd just claim the guy stole the gun, which apparently happens almost as often as them giving the guy the gun.
Also notice my point about substitution. As it's gotten harder to get guns from dealers, criminals have shifted to getting them from family/friends. No doubt that also indicates an increase in "straw purchasing". They got it from family/friends who bought the gun for them at the dealer b/c they knew they couldn't get it. Those people are already committing felonies for them, think this new law would make them stop?
Of those getting them from dealers I'm betting the vast majority cleared the checks, i.e. were first time felons now incarcerated. Again, all but impossible to stop them.
Some interesting sociological data in there as well, worth a skim.
in short, even the government's own data shows these laws to be focused on the wrong guns and highly unlikely to impact the criminal's gun sources.
The guns being targeted, even the broadest semi-automatic bans" are no more dangerous to innocent people than hunting guns and revolvers, guns that have been around for more than 100 years. The advancements in gun's rate of fire, capacity, etc. have not increased the danger of guns in the hands of Americans in overall gun violence. They are using "safer" low capacity guns just as often as modern weapons and far more than "high capacity" guns. Capacity and looks have nothing to do with gun violence.
Second, these guns are obtained by means that currently circumvent the background check process and will continue to circumvent those proposals that expand it. If 8% can get through the dealer process surely 10% can get through the private sales process, and that's the current percentage they get from that source now, which means no real impact at all.
How much data do we need, and I mean concrete data not the "seems like it would help" anecdotes, before we conclude these are bad policies and try to go in a more effective direction? All these proposals do is divert us from potentially effective solutions.
This study was done in 1991 and 1997 by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, updated in 2001. Most recent data on their site.
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/fuo.pdf
Some very interesting numbers. Sorry formatting isn't ideal.
Percent of prison inmates
Armed during
Ever used orEver armed while
current offense
possessed firearmcommitting offense
Type of firearm
FederalState
FederalStateFederalState
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Firearm
18.4%
14.8%
25.1%
20.0%
46.9%
48.9%
Handgun
15.3
12.8
21.3
17.2
36.0
38.6
Rifle
1.3
1.3
2.0
1.9
12.4
14.6
Shotgun
2.4
2.0
3.5
3.0
13.7
15.6
Other
0.5
0.6
1.1
0.9
2.7
2.3
No firearm
81.6%
85.2%
74.9%
80.0%
53.1%
51.1%
Note: Detail do not add to total because inmates may have had more than one firearm.
Only 1.3% of crimes involved rifles of any kind. You know, the guns we're trying to ban. It gets worse for their case:
Armed during
Ever armed while
Ever used or
Specific
current offense
committing offense
possessed firearm
type of firearm
FederalState
FederalState
FederalState
Single shot
9.9%
7.3%
14.2%
10.6%
31.0%
31.4%
Conventional semiautomatic
7.9
7.7
10.9
9.8
22.6
26.0
Military-style semiautomatic
or fully automatic
1.5
1.7
2.5
2.3
5.6
5.6
Percent of prison
inmates carrying a
firearm during current
Type of firearm
State
Federal
Handgun
83.20%
86.7%
Rifle
7.3
8.9
Shotgun
13.1
13.7
Single shot
53.90%
49.2%
Conventional
semiautomatic
43.2
51.8
Military-style
semiautomatic
6.8
9.3
Fully automatic
2.4
3.8
Number of inmates 190,383
190383
12,936
More crimes were committed with single shot guns (derringers, revolvers, lever action, pump action, bolt action) than with semi-autos at the state level, about the same on the federal level.
"Assault weapons" use was FAR less than what would be classified mostly as "hunting and sporting guns" and revolvers, none of which are on anyone's target list even Illinois. More people are killed, no doubt children included, by non-semi autos than by "assault weapons" or "weapons of war", and "semiautomatic weapons" of all kinds aren't any more dangerous than hunting guns.
I'm not surprised at the low numbers for long guns nor the exceptionally low numbers for "military style" weapons. I'm SHOCKED that non-semi autos are the same or higher in use in crimes. Also note that "military weapon" use for legal guns wasn't terribly higher than NFA full auto weapons, which are heavily regulated and exactly what Feinstein wants to do with military style guns. Also the number of those guns is TINY as a percentage of guns out there. Those guns are all being stolen.
Some other numbers, on how weapons were obtained by those criminals:
Percent of State
prison inmates who possessed a firearm during current offense
Source of firearms
1997
1991
Total
100.0%
100.0%
Purchased or traded
from retail outlet
13.9%
20.8%
Retail store
8.3
14.7
Pawnshop
3.8
4.2
Flea market
1.0
1.3
Gun show
0.7
0.6
Family or friend
39.6%
33.8%
Purchased or traded
12.8
13.5
Rented or borrowed
18.5
10.1
Other
8.3
10.2
Street/illegal source
39.2%
40.8%
Theft or burglary
9.9
10.5
Drug dealer/off street
20.8
22.5
Fence/black market
8.4
7.8
Other
7.4%
4.6%
As you can see, guns were either stolen or obtained from close associates like family/friends. Almost none from gun shows or flea markets.
Of those obtained through friends/family, which presumably this "background check on all transfers' would target, only 13% were actually sold, the rest were just given or stolen from them. Given they just gave a gun to someone they knew who was either a criminal or was going to be one, how likely is it they'd run a NICS check on them? They'd just claim the guy stole the gun, which apparently happens almost as often as them giving the guy the gun.
Also notice my point about substitution. As it's gotten harder to get guns from dealers, criminals have shifted to getting them from family/friends. No doubt that also indicates an increase in "straw purchasing". They got it from family/friends who bought the gun for them at the dealer b/c they knew they couldn't get it. Those people are already committing felonies for them, think this new law would make them stop?
Of those getting them from dealers I'm betting the vast majority cleared the checks, i.e. were first time felons now incarcerated. Again, all but impossible to stop them.
Some interesting sociological data in there as well, worth a skim.
in short, even the government's own data shows these laws to be focused on the wrong guns and highly unlikely to impact the criminal's gun sources.
The guns being targeted, even the broadest semi-automatic bans" are no more dangerous to innocent people than hunting guns and revolvers, guns that have been around for more than 100 years. The advancements in gun's rate of fire, capacity, etc. have not increased the danger of guns in the hands of Americans in overall gun violence. They are using "safer" low capacity guns just as often as modern weapons and far more than "high capacity" guns. Capacity and looks have nothing to do with gun violence.
Second, these guns are obtained by means that currently circumvent the background check process and will continue to circumvent those proposals that expand it. If 8% can get through the dealer process surely 10% can get through the private sales process, and that's the current percentage they get from that source now, which means no real impact at all.
How much data do we need, and I mean concrete data not the "seems like it would help" anecdotes, before we conclude these are bad policies and try to go in a more effective direction? All these proposals do is divert us from potentially effective solutions.