Play Kentucky Derby, 2019 KSR Style

[Darrell KSR]

Rules are simple--you have $100 pretend KSR-bucks to wager on the Derby. Person with the most money remaining after the race wins.

One year somebody (Oledon?) said they took the $100 and put it in their pocket. As I recall, they won the contest that year. Badrose won it one year with a $330 day, as I recall. I don't recall huge wins; his may have been the best. Thedonnie123 won last year with $181, nipping Doc's $180. (His secret was he kept $10 in his pocket, only wagered $90, won $171. Clever.)

We'll use the correct odds, but here are the current ones, courtesy of CBS Sports. If you play early, watch for scratches (unless you just want a refund) so you can place another wager.

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions
The 145th Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on Saturday, May 4th. Here is a look at the competing field, along with their post positions and 2019 Kentucky Derby odds:

POST NUMBER HORSE CURRENT ODDS
1 War of Will 15-1
2 Tax 20-1
3 By My Standards 15-1
4 Gray Magician 50-1
5 Improbable 5-1
6 Vekoma 15-1
7 Maximum Security 8-1
8 Tacitus 8-1
9 Plus Que Parfait 30-1
10 Cutting Humor 30-1
11 Haikal 30-1
12 Bodexpress 30-1
13 Code of Honor 12-1
14 Win Win Win 12-1
15 Master Fencer 50-1
16 Game Winner 9-2
17 Roadster 5-1
18 Long Range Toddy 30-1
19 Spinoff 30-1
20 Country House 30-1

[Darrell KSR]

Whoa...I need to modify the first post--last year Blueboss set the KSR record. Here's what happened in 2018:

I show Blueboss the big winner walking away with $532, and badrose another nice day with $390 right behind him.

Dan had a good profitable day with $222, and I managed to do a little better than break even with $156.

Flounder cut his losses with a $75 winner, and everybody else just enjoyed the history!

[UKFlounder]

$30 on Improbable to win
$30 on Maximum Security to win
$10 on Roadster to win
$20 on Code of Honor to place
$10 on Cutting Humor to show

[dan_bgblue]

I can't vouch for the accuracy of this but for those of you from out of state, it might be helpful

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bowling+Green&state=KY&site=LMK&lat=36.9737&lon=-86.4412#.W1ZuscJOnIU

[snoopcat]

$100 to place on By My Standards

[blueboss]

This ones wide open, no clear favorite despite how the betting goes... weather has to figure into it as well.


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[Darrell KSR]

Gonna rain?

[blueboss]

Gonna rain?

Yep, looks like it might be sloppy. Churchill drains really well so timing might be key, but if it rains all day drainage won’t matter.

Local weather guys play the chamber of commerce curve until they can’t. Saturday looks pretty soggy all day...


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[Darrell KSR]

@DRFGrening: Haikal will scratch from Kentucky Derby, per trainer @KPMRacingStable

[badrose]

I can't vouch for the accuracy of this but for those of you from out of state, it might be helpful

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bowling+Green&state=KY&site=LMK&lat=36.9737&lon=-86.4412#.W1ZuscJOnIU

Looks like we may need to know whose mother was a mudder.

[blueboss]

Another tid bit, since Omaha Beach scratched, jockey Mike Smith lost his mount.

Mike Smith will now be on Todd Pletcher’s Cutting Humor. Could be a game changer, look for his opening 30-1 line to drop

With Hiakel (my long shot) scratching, the one hole will be vacant as all the horses will slide down a spot.

Pletcher now has to pay both jockeys...


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[Doc]

$50 on 5 to place
$25 on 7 to show
$25 on 17 place

So Improbable to place ($50)
Max Sec to show ($25)
Roadster to place ($50)

these are my edited and final picks

[blueboss]

$50 on 5 to place
$25 on 7 to show
$25 on 14 to place

Watch your post numbers, with Hiakel scratching everybody moved over one spot.

...I think

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[Darrell KSR]

Watch your post numbers, with Hiakel scratching everybody moved over one spot.

...I think

Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkDon't know if this is accurate... I'm not a horse guy, although I love it. 7995

[Darrell KSR]

I'm going to do like I do when I don't study the horses at all...play some conservative plays and hope something hits where I more or less break even :).

$20 across the board on Vekoma
$20 By My Standards to show -- change to $10 for Roadster to win; $10 for Roadster to show (thanks, Doc...nice odds)
$20 Code of Honor to show

[Darrell KSR]

$50 on 5 to place
$25 on 7 to show
$25 on 14 to place

Got you for Improbable, Maximum Security, and Win Win Win

[blueboss]

Got you for Improbable, Maximum Security, and Win Win Win

So it’s improbable Maximum Security will win,win,win? Shoot!! I was liking Maximum Security in a box.


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[Doc]

Got you for Improbable, Maximum Security, and Win Win Win

correct. scratch does not change number

[blueboss]

Big money in the Oaks, fast track, winner went wire/wire....


Serengeti Empress
28.00, 14.80, 9.60

Liora
32.60, 17.00

Lady Apple
7.00

2.00 Exacta 878.40



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[snoopcat]

Big money in the Oaks, fast track, winner went wire/wire....


Serengeti Empress
28.00, 14.80, 9.60

Liora
32.60, 17.00

Lady Apple
7.00

2.00 Exacta 878.40



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My friend had $12 exacta! $5000

[Darrell KSR]

My friend had $12 exacta! $5000Sweet.

[BigBluePappy]

Since Omaha Beach was scratched, I gotta go with the gray horse, Tacitus. Put it all on his nose to get to the line first.

[catmanjack]

$20 to show on the following horses.
5 improbable
8 tacitus
12 Bodexpress
17 Roadster
20 country house

[kingcat]

I would never make this bet with real money..


Game Winner...10 win/place ($20)
Roadster...10 win/place ($20)
Improbable..20 across win/place/show ($60)

[CGWildcat]

Luckily this is (real)KSR $ I've never placed a bet on a horse in my life, and still don't understand how the odds work, but here we go.

Will to Win - $25 to win
Cutting Humor - $25 to place
Roadster - $50 to show

[dan_bgblue]

This is one of those races where it may be smart to bet the jockey and not the horse.

[Darrell KSR]

This is one of those races where it may be smart to bet the jockey and not the horse.Waiting on your plays!

[Darrell KSR]

Luckily this is (real)KSR $ I've never placed a bet on a horse in my life, and still don't understand how the odds work, but here we go.

Will to Win - $25 to win
Cutting Humor - $25 to place
Roadster - $50 to showLooks like you did fine.

[KSRBEvans]

$30 on Maximum Security to win ($30)
$10 across the board on Improbable ($30)
$10 across the board on Tacitus ($30)
$10 on Tax to show ($10)

[KSRdallen]

$10 By My Standards to place
$10 ($30) across the board on Win Win Win
$10 ($30) across the board on Spinoff
$20 on Roadster to win
$10 on Country House to show

[dan_bgblue]

$25.00 across the board on Mike Smith.
$25.00 to win on Mike Smith

As Doc often says, Go Big or Go Home

In the mire of today's track, patience is going to be important

[blueboss]

$10 Exact Box - $60
7- Maximum Security 9-2
8- Tacitus 5-1
10- Cutting Humor 24-1

$5 Exacta Box - $30
5- Improbable 9-2
7- Maximum Security 9-2
17 Roadster 10-1

$5 W - $5
10 Cutting Humor 24-1

$5 W - $5
17 Roadster 10-1


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[blueboss]

Track just downgraded from fast to sloppy (6:25 pm est)...


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[Doc]

if i was going on current odd..Roadster in a slam dunk.

[Doc]

drop win, win,win and replace with Roadster. I edit my pick above

[Darrell KSR]

if i was going on current odd..Roadster in a slam dunk.

Doc, you are welcome to change a wager until post time. We will use the true odds anyway.

[Darrell KSR]

drop win, win,win and replace with Roadster. I edit my pick above

You got it.

[Darrell KSR]

You convince me too, Doc... I changed as well.

[Darrell KSR]

And the finish in a sloppy track

1. Maximum Security
2. Country House
3. Code of Honor

[blueboss]

And the finish in a sloppy track

1. Maximum Security
2. Country House
3. Code of Honor

Not so fast, objection under way


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[Darrell KSR]

$30 on Improbable to win
$30 on Maximum Security to win
$10 on Roadster to win
$20 on Code of Honor to place -- + $98.00
$10 on Cutting Humor to show


$98.00; broke even




$100 to place on By My Standards

Hope you kept cab fare in your pocket!



$50 on 5 to place
$25 on 7 to show
$25 on 17 place

So Improbable to place ($50)
Max Sec to show ($25)
Roadster to place ($50)

these are my edited and final picks

Stripped of winning money by the DQ!




I'm going to do like I do when I don't study the horses at all...play some conservative plays and hope something hits where I more or less break even :).

$20 across the board on Vekoma
$20 By My Standards to show -- change to $10 for Roadster to win; $10 for Roadster to show (thanks, Doc...nice odds)
$20 Code of Honor to show -- $98.00

Broke even



$20 to show on the following horses.
5 improbable
8 tacitus - $56.00
12 Bodexpress
17 Roadster
20 country house -- +$246.00

Nice $302.00 day




I would never make this bet with real money..


Game Winner...10 win/place ($20)
Roadster...10 win/place ($20)
Improbable..20 across win/place/show ($60)

Good thing you saved your real money



Luckily this is (real)KSR $ I've never placed a bet on a horse in my life, and still don't understand how the odds work, but here we go.

Will to Win - $25 to win
Cutting Humor - $25 to place
Roadster - $50 to show

Better to not understand the odds, and not to bet apparently!




$30 on Maximum Security to win ($30)
$10 across the board on Improbable ($30)
$10 across the board on Tacitus ($30) -- +$28.00
$10 on Tax to show ($10)

$28, Kept enough for you and the missus to go to dinner. Well, at McDonald's.



$10 By My Standards to place
$10 ($30) across the board on Win Win Win
$10 ($30) across the board on Spinoff
$20 on Roadster to win
$10 on Country House to show -- +$123

$123, better than a break even day, but barely.


$25.00 across the board on Mike Smith.
$25.00 to win on Mike Smith

As Doc often says, Go Big or Go Home

In the mire of today's track, patience is going to be important

Well, you're going home, but probably walking unless you kept gas money.




$10 Exact Box - $60
7- Maximum Security 9-2
8- Tacitus 5-1
10- Cutting Humor 24-1

$5 Exacta Box - $30
5- Improbable 9-2
7- Maximum Security 9-2
17 Roadster 10-1

$5 W - $5
10 Cutting Humor 24-1

$5 W - $5
17 Roadster 10-1


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Close all around, and killed by the DQ. You coulda been a contender!



Here are the wagers. There's a rider's objection from Country House against Maximum Security, so of course, we would wait on the official payouts anyway.


Please double check my payouts, all done in my head and glancing at a computer monitor.

[Darrell KSR]

Not so fast, objection under way


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I'll be shocked if they change anything, but as someone on twitter said, VAR is killing horse racing!

[Darrell KSR]

I'm think it's a flagrant one, what do you think? Hook and hold?

[Darrell KSR]

Targeting?

[blueboss]

“Go To The Monitor”

I think if anybody has a claim it’s the 1 horse, War of Will


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[Darrell KSR]

“Go To The Monitor”

I think if anybody has a claim it’s the 1 horse, War of Will


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Doug Shows would be so proud!

[Darrell KSR]

I thought this was supposed to be the fastest 2 min. in sports?

[blueboss]

Doug Shows would be so proud!

Doug Shows just T’d up Calipari


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[Darrell KSR]

Question: is this the longest review since the Patrick Sparks three pointer in 2005?

[blueboss]

OMG!!!


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[UKFlounder]

DQ'd!

[KSRdallen]

Wow!

[Doc]

that is HORRIBLE

[Darrell KSR]

I know I am only amusing myself, and I'm stealing most of these from Twitter anyway. But I think my favorite so far has to be this one:

If they take the title away from Maximum Security at least they wouldn't be the first one to get a title taken away in Louisville.

[Darrell KSR]

WOW.

[Darrell KSR]

In case you're just peeking in on this thread, the stewards did disqualify Maximum Security. Country House is the winner.

There will be controversy on this for a long time.

[Darrell KSR]

The odds on the winner just went from 9-2 to 65-1.

[blueboss]

I know I am only amusing myself, and I'm stealing most of these from Twitter anyway. But I think my favorite so far has to be this one:

If they take the title away from Maximum Security at least they wouldn't be the first one to get a title taken away in Louisville.

Was Country House bred in Durham NC?


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[Darrell KSR]

Was Country House bred in Durham NC?


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lol--probably!

[Darrell KSR]

20 Country House $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
13 Code of Honor $15.20 $9.80
8 Tacitus $5.60

Also Ran
5 - Improbable, 16 - Game Winner

Scratched
11 - Haikal, 12 - Omaha Beach

Payouts
WAGER TYPE WINNERS PAYOUT
$1.00 Double 12/20 $121.40
$2.00 Exacta 20/13 $3,009.60
$0.50 Pick 3 7/12/20 $638.80
$0.50 Pick 4 3/7/12/20 $11,325.65
$0.50 Pick 5 2, 8/3/7/12/20 $72,317.60
$0.20 Pick 6 4/2, 8/3/7/12/20 $271,869.81
Pick 6 Carryover $137,593.95
$1.00 Super High Five 20/13/8/5/16 $544,185.88
$1.00 Superfecta 20/13/8/5 $51,400.10
$0.50 Trifecta 20/13/8 $5,737.65

[dan_bgblue]

The ruling had no effect on my meager wagers at all, but if that had been a NASCAR race the car behind would have just caught up and run Max Security off the track. Then run up to the car and thrown his helmet thru the window.

[blueboss]

*


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[kingcat]

Surprised they called it. But they pretty much had to imo. MS had the lane all to himself and a strait line but stepped out and impeded War of Will taking its chance away. Very close to taking that horse and jockey down.

If it were a claims race they would have certainly called it. That's just the way the sport is.

[Darrell KSR]

I show catmanjack walking away from the track with $302 in his pocket after the wagers, a nice day at the track, and the best of the bunch from us.

KSRDallen won a little money, and UKFlounder and Darrell KSR basically played even-steven, with KSRBEvans splurging on a Big Mac, Fries, Supersized, and apple pie for him and the missus with what he had left.

The rest? Hope you had an entertaining day at the track and won money on the other races!

[kingcat]

Good job Jack!. The mud was good to you my man.

[Darrell KSR]

I said that I would be shocked if they disqualified Maximum Security, but they had support for doing so, too. Still surprised. No, still shocked.

[KSRdallen]

Congrats catmanjack! I’ll take my little extra $ from a crazy outcome. Still can’t believe the DQ.

[blueboss]

Even though I used Maximum Security as my horse on top, I got too cute with the exotics so I don’t really have a horse in the conversation.

Having said that, I think Maximum Security did impede War of Will, and bumped Code of Honor lightly, but Country House was not affected.

Since War of Will, or Code of Honor didn’t file an objection IMO you leave it alone. The key is once they straightened out all neck and neck at the top of the stretch, Maximum Security out ran them all.

Do over in two weeks in Baltimore.




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[CGWildcat]

So if I bet $100 on Country House, what would have been my winnings?

[blueboss]

So if I bet $100 on Country House, what would have been my winnings?

$6625


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[blueboss]

$2.00 exacta $3009.50, for 20-13

.50 trifecta $5737.65, for the derby I think there was a minimum trifecta bet of $1.00, so $1.00 would have paid $11,475.30 for,20-13-8


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[Darrell KSR]

So if I bet $100 on Country House, what would have been my winnings?


$6625


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Blueboss gave the answer, but here's how you do it.

The payouts are listed in Win-Place-Show order for a $2 wager. So if you bet $2 on Country House to "Win," you would win $132.40. If you bet $100, instead of $2, then you'll win 50x the payout of $132.40, or $6620.

Take it a step further. If you bet $100 on Country House to "Place," you'd win 50x $56.60, or $2830. Nice.
If you bet $100 on Country House to "Show," you'd win 50x $24.60, or $1230. Those were very strong payouts because the odds were so long.

On the other hand if you bet $100 on Tacitus to "Show," you'd only win 50x $5.60, or $280. Now, remember-that's not all "winnings." That includes your original $100 wager. So your profit is "only" $180 there.

20 Country House $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
13 Code of Honor $15.20 $9.80
8 Tacitus $5.60

[catmanjack]

Just wish I had real dollars down would have been a great day.
Just a bit of insight as to why I picked country house, horse had the outside post and I thought if he got out nicely and broke inside with stride he had a shot and if you look at the relay that’s exactly what happened.
The other picks I placed them out nicely with their poles.

[CGWildcat]

Blueboss gave the answer, but here's how you do it.

The payouts are listed in Win-Place-Show order for a $2 wager. So if you bet $2 on Country House to "Win," you would win $132.40. If you bet $100, instead of $2, then you'll win 50x the payout of $132.40, or $6620.

Take it a step further. If you bet $100 on Country House to "Place," you'd win 50x $56.60, or $2830. Nice.
If you bet $100 on Country House to "Show," you'd win 50x $24.60, or $1230. Those were very strong payouts because the odds were so long.

On the other hand if you bet $100 on Tacitus to "Show," you'd only win 50x $5.60, or $280. Now, remember-that's not all "winnings." That includes your original $100 wager. So your profit is "only" $180 there.

20 Country House $132.40 $56.60 $24.60
13 Code of Honor $15.20 $9.80
8 Tacitus $5.60

Thanks for the breakdown

[kingcat]

I started to take some long shots but knew nothing about them. I have no doubt on a fast track and with mud in their eyes some are still running.

I wanted to bet all three Baffert horses with our KSR money because his entries have destroyed my bets the last few years.

I think his horses ran just out of the money to keep my string of bad betting luck intact..:mixed-smiley-030:

[KSRBEvans]

FB friend of mine said her husband last week got them a condo at Perdido Key for next month after the school year ends, and they'll pay for it with a $20 win ticket on Country House.

[blueboss]

FB friend of mine said her husband last week got them a condo at Perdido Key for next month after the school year ends, and they'll pay for it with a $20 win ticket on Country House.

I’ll be at Perdido Key tomorrow, unfortunately a horse won’t be paying for our condo.


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[KSRBEvans]

I’ll be at Perdido Key tomorrow, unfortunately a horse won’t be paying for our condo.


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Enjoy! It's one of my favorite places to relax and forget about the world for a few days.

[Darrell KSR]

FB friend of mine said her husband last week got them a condo at Perdido Key for next month after the school year ends, and they'll pay for it with a $20 win ticket on Country House.

Sweet. Hope they toast the horse (and maybe the stewards!)

Back to the controversial DQ--here's an interesting look at it from a head-on angle.


https://twitter.com/CarsoniPH/status/1125028240144457730/video/1

[KSRBEvans]

FWIW, here's racing writer Andy Beyer writing (persuasively, IMHO) about why Maximum Security should not have been DQd in spite of fouling War of Will. As he puts it, it's like deciding the NBA Finals on a foul call away from the ball:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/the-kentucky-derby-decision-was-a-bad-one-country-house-never-had-a-chance-of-winning/2019/05/06/59a584b4-701c-11e9-8be0-ca575670e91c_story.html?utm_term=.4174bddad0ad

[BigBluePappy]

I’ll be at Perdido Key tomorrow, unfortunately a horse won’t be paying for our condo.


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Ah the Redneck Riviera, East.
Enjoy, and tell it hang in there until I can visit the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach/Perdido Beach area again...
Prayers for safe travel to and from.

[blueboss]

Ah the Redneck Riviera, East.
Enjoy, and tell it hang in there until I can visit the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach/Perdido Beach area again...
Prayers for safe travel to and from.

Thanks, so far so good. Got a late start and had to endure Nashville rush hour, complete with a multi-car pile up on the south side.

Hole’d up in Athens Al. for the night. Easy five hour drive in the morning.

Fisherman’s Corner is on the menu for dinner tomorrow night... mmmm lobster bisque, and royal reds.


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[KSRBEvans]

^That's usually our 1st meal when we get there. Gumbo and Oyster po boys. Great little place under the bridge.

[KSRBEvans]

Maximum Security jockey Luis Saez suspended 15 days for "failure to control his mount and make the proper effort to maintain a straight course thereby causing interference with several rivals that resulted in the disqualification of his mount."

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/233636/jockey-luis-saez-suspended-15-days-for-derby-infraction

I'm not a racing guy, but from a layman's eye I don't see it. Feels like Churchill Downs doubling down on their DQ decision in the face of public disagreement.

[Darrell KSR]

Maximum Security jockey Luis Saez suspended 15 days for "failure to control his mount and make the proper effort to maintain a straight course thereby causing interference with several rivals that resulted in the disqualification of his mount."

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/233636/jockey-luis-saez-suspended-15-days-for-derby-infraction

I'm not a racing guy, but from a layman's eye I don't see it. Feels like Churchill Downs doubling down on their DQ decision in the face of public disagreement.@TimSullivan714: Agreed with stewards’ decision on Kentucky Derby disqualification, but having hard time with 15-day suspension of Jockey Luis Saez. Feels like the second decision designed to justify the first one.

[KSRBEvans]

Not to be outdone, Maximum Security's owners file a federal lawsuit:

https://twitter.com/KentuckySports/status/1128681880080015360

[dan_bgblue]

Is it safe to assume that the gambling houses have settled with the bettors? It could really turn into a royal cluster if the judge or a jury decides in favor of the Maximum Security group.

[KSRBEvans]

I don't know the rule on that, but I doubt we'll have to worry about it, anyway. I don't think the suit will succeed.