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Darrell KSR
09-03-2017, 08:18 PM
Rooting for it to turn more easterly, Doc. You look like you are squarely in the sights of that major hurricane.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-hurricane-irma-to-brush-northern-caribbean-as-it-tracks-toward-the-us-this-week/70002631

suncat05
09-04-2017, 09:45 AM
Most of the current models predict that Irma will turn northward before it reaches the east coast of Florida.
I hope it stays out in the Atlantic Ocean and does no damage to the east coast of the United States. It is shaping up to be a really bad storm.

CitizenBBN
09-04-2017, 10:32 AM
Hoping it turns out to sea and misses FLorida and my beloved Keys.

KentuckyWildcat
09-04-2017, 12:50 PM
Scheduled to leave for Amelia Island on the 15th...hoping it stays away.

Doc
09-04-2017, 05:19 PM
This one looks bad and it looks loke its headed towarss me. Water already gone at local grocery stores. catagory 4 storm. Hopefully the carribean island knock it down

blueboss
09-04-2017, 09:31 PM
Most Spaghetti models have it riding the Gulf Stream north... but it is a hurricane, unlike Harvey Irma looks to have some more predictable steerage influence.

edit: I just saw a new model showing it mowing over the keys and then in to the gulf.


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Doc
09-04-2017, 11:06 PM
Most now show it running up to the tip of FL then turning North. Im a good 100 mile north of miami so it would lose lots of its punch but still likely to shutter up

blueboss
09-05-2017, 07:07 AM
Man!!! Now it looks like the whole length of Fl is going to take the hit. It's been upgraded to a five and will likely hit the southern tip of Fl as a four before it makes its northerly turn.


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suncat05
09-05-2017, 07:50 AM
And I am in the wrong side of the Herbert Hoover Dike. The spaghetti plots mostly show it going just west of Lake Okeechobee, or directly over it.
Not a good scenario for me.
This storm just became a Cat 5, the sustained winds just went from 125 mph to 150+ mph.
My hope is that it goes directly over the mountains in Cuba before it turns north on us here.
Doc & I may be in for a bit of a rough ride.

Darrell KSR
09-05-2017, 09:13 AM
Extremely concerned for you guys. Sustained winds now at 175 mph and the path looks awful. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170905/62db435321793a4e4d98e74efa0cbd81.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170905/212d1f6d2c04c349c1cf4c43672f235d.jpg

MickintheHam
09-05-2017, 10:46 AM
Where it turns north is critical. Hope it stays out of the Gulf and turns into the Gulfstream instead. Let's hope it weakens considerably. God bless those in its path.

badrose
09-05-2017, 11:31 AM
Officially the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever.

Doc
09-05-2017, 11:48 AM
Officially the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever.

180 mph winds! Incredible

I hope it runs right over peutro rico, haiti and cuba. Not so they get smack but so that the storm gets knocked down by the land mass

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 12:41 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l30eClrQtCA

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 01:15 PM
Evacuating the Keys mandatory. (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-hurricane-irma-strengthens-category-storm-49625260)

Darrell KSR
09-05-2017, 01:24 PM
I enjoyed the Keys--not as much as our resident semi-Keys resident--but enjoyed them when I lived in Miami. But there's one little itsy bitsy road in and out of there, so I'd be getting out of Dodge, like, extra-early when the Hurricane comes a-calling.

CitizenBBN
09-05-2017, 02:03 PM
It's going to be grim. I have made a lot of friends down there over the years, most of the island will end up in the ocean before it's over if this thing keeps going on this track.

We're looking at places down there, X Zone is the highest and that's where we want. I guess I'll get to see if it's really high enough or not. I'd rather not find out this way. They're shuttering everything, even the hospitals.

The other option, which is what most do, is pay the insurance on the building (Required), and don't put anything expensive in the house. It's not like you can afford more than 500sf anyway, so there's not much in contents to lose.

In the last one one guy we know was standing in his living room and all he could see out his window was ocean. He was in his house quite literally standing in the ocean. This one looks to be worse.

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 02:42 PM
It is highly unlikely that it arrives at this strength, but even a Cat 4 at 140 mph will level most structures in that area. I am really hoping for a turn north before it gets there, but truly can not see any weather feature that will cause it to do that. Massive, powerful storm that will go where it wants to.

Doc
09-05-2017, 02:47 PM
I enjoyed the Keys--not as much as our resident semi-Keys resident--but enjoyed them when I lived in Miami. But there's one little itsy bitsy road in and out of there, so I'd be getting out of Dodge, like, extra-early when the Hurricane comes a-calling.

My wife asked if we were leaving. My response was to where? My folks live in North Carolina. If it turns before FL, guess where it goes...NORTH CAROLINA. Do I to GA and hunker down in a hotel? It will take me 10 days to get there. Meanwhile I have a house with a generator and shutters, and a hurricane room. Plus I have a business that I have a responsibility to. My daughter can't evacuate since she works for the police dept in Vero Beach. I always make fun of the idiots who stay but mostly its the ones who do idiotic things. Hopefully that won't be me.

But if I was in the Keys, I'd have already left. As you say, there is one road in and out, and much is SINGLE LANE. Talk about a NIGHTMARE.

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 03:03 PM
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

Darrell KSR
09-05-2017, 03:07 PM
My wife asked if we were leaving. My response was to where? My folks live in North Carolina. If it turns before FL, guess where it goes...NORTH CAROLINA. Do I to GA and hunker down in a hotel? It will take me 10 days to get there. Meanwhile I have a house with a generator and shutters, and a hurricane room. Plus I have a business that I have a responsibility to. My daughter can't evacuate since she works for the police dept in Vero Beach. I always make fun of the idiots who stay but mostly its the ones who do idiotic things. Hopefully that won't be me.

But if I was in the Keys, I'd have already left. As you say, there is one road in and out, and much is SINGLE LANE. Talk about a NIGHTMARE.

With the precautions you take, you'll be fine when nobody else will. Just don't decide to go joy riding through 12-feet of water streets, willya?

Catonahottinroof
09-05-2017, 03:08 PM
Sustained winds at 185, gusts to 255. That is insane. Hopefully it crosses Cuba and the mountains curb it before hitting Florida.

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 03:20 PM
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

Doc
09-05-2017, 03:21 PM
With the precautions you take, you'll be fine when nobody else will. Just don't decide to go joy riding through 12-feet of water streets, willya?

Why? I got a 4 wheel drive with a rebel flag and a gun rack, and some cowboy boots! Just because all those other cars are flooded doesn't mean I can't make it thru.

Doc
09-05-2017, 03:23 PM
notice a similarity?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/79630000/jpg/_79630637_alamydt7hcy.jpg

Darrell KSR
09-05-2017, 03:33 PM
Irma looks pretty dang "perfect" as an incredibly dangerous hurricane. The formation is beautiful, if you want to call it that.

UKHistory
09-05-2017, 03:42 PM
is that a certain tweeter you are quoting?

Horrifying. God bless the people and animals in the path of that storm.

Let's work help folks after it passes.

Darrell KSR
09-05-2017, 03:57 PM
Why? I got a 4 wheel drive with a rebel flag and a gun rack, and some cowboy boots! Just because all those other cars are flooded doesn't mean I can't make it thru.

You need hip waders.

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 04:02 PM
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif

CitizenBBN
09-05-2017, 04:03 PM
Doc, you're prepared, you'll be fine. Be careful, but you've made good plans. It's the people in trailer parks and the fools who are in trouble.

That and anyone on an island that's only about 3 or 5 feet above the ocean level on a good day. They're not going to get flooded, that's called swimming in the ocean.

blueboss
09-05-2017, 04:52 PM
Good news bad news... if it does take that northward turn at Miami, the farther up the peninsula it goes the weaker it'll get. The other good news is more than likely it'll be moving faster than say Harvey so there won't be the 50" rain totals.

I've got several friends in and around Doc's area and they're all very nervous and they all have different plans. Some fleeing some staying... all of the ones on Hutchison Island are leaving, some more inland are staying.


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kingcat
09-05-2017, 05:52 PM
A Cat 5, you leave and vacation in the Bluegrass

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 07:08 PM
A Cat 5, you leave and vacation in the Bluegrass

+10,000,000

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 07:09 PM
Hurricane Andrew 1992

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/44/Andrew_23_aug_1992_1231Z.jpg/260px-Andrew_23_aug_1992_1231Z.jpg

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 07:16 PM
https://people.uwec.edu/jolhm/EH2/Kiperts/index_files/an09.jpg

CitizenBBN
09-05-2017, 07:23 PM
Where is that Dan?

Darrell KSR
09-05-2017, 07:36 PM
That has to be Homestead.

CitizenBBN
09-05-2017, 07:43 PM
Duh, yeah, looks like it.

It's not like most of my friends in Key West have much in the way of means. It's so expensive to live there. They make good money as their jobs go, mostly I know bartenders (no surprise), and most rent and don't own, but still. I do know several there who own too, but this one may get all the way up Solares Hill. It's the highest point on the island, and it should be OK from the surge, but obviously not so much from 150+ mph winds blowing tree trunks and everything else across the island.

Of course all of Florida is at risk in this one. I think this is going to go pretty badly.

dan_bgblue
09-05-2017, 07:46 PM
That has to be Homestead.

Yup

CitizenBBN
09-05-2017, 07:57 PM
Just checked some of the webcams in Old Town. Still some folks there, but nothing like normal of course. People are heading out. Tourists have to be out tomorrow, bet that will be fun at the airport.

But honestly I'm surprised how many are still there even though it's maybe a fifth of what is typical for this time of year. Probably waiting on flights later in the week to get out I assume.

Almost no cars. The people who drove down are heading out, these are the folks waiting for flights.

CitizenBBN
09-05-2017, 08:01 PM
As an aside I've considered if we moved there getting a boat b/c if a storm comes you gas up and leave. Head up to the panhandle or Atlantic side depending on the direction.

Cost wise you can buy something pretty cheap used. The only problem is the slips there are as expensive as the land and I don't know the first thing about boats. OK, I know they should keep the water out and stuff, but not sure what to do when that doesnt' happen.

MickintheHam
09-05-2017, 08:07 PM
Doc, Good Luck! I'm becoming increasingly concerned that this damn thing id going to enter the gulf. If it gets there it will become difficult to predict.

CitizenBBN
09-05-2017, 11:25 PM
Well, Sloppy Joes, Hog's Breath, have all shuttered at midnight it looks like. That's usually just getting started time. Streets are deserted, everything just about shuttered up (good news is Key West buildings have built in shutters due to the obvious need periodically). Everyone heading out.

MickintheHam
09-06-2017, 12:34 AM
Very sad Citizen. As of Late Tues Night, the majority models show it now will get to the keys and head north, most likely through the center of the peninsula or up the Atlantic Coast.

Doc
09-06-2017, 06:53 AM
Looks to be that some think its going to stay south and west of us, make it to the gulf. Im going to start shuttering up this afternoon though

Darrell KSR
09-06-2017, 09:48 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJB61PMXoAEkQpD.jpg:large

Darrell KSR
09-06-2017, 10:07 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/AL112017_key_messages.png?030

Darrell KSR
09-06-2017, 10:17 AM
Doc, Suncat--this looks even worse to me (for you guys). Please be careful.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJDNVFDWsAASL6Q.jpg:large

CitizenBBN
09-06-2017, 10:56 AM
Heading right for my beloved Keys. They'll get through it, they've endured it many times, but still hate to see it.

dan_bgblue
09-06-2017, 11:41 AM
NHS is still in a quandary as to where Irma will go, when it will turn, etc. I think it will be sometime Friday before they can pretty much pin down the track. Irma wants to turn north for sure, but the question is when and where will the door be when it opens for Irma.

PedroDaGr8
09-06-2017, 12:58 PM
I have been keeping track of the details of the storm via the http://reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather they have a daily thread that monitors all scientific updates from this storm. If you go to that thread, set the sorting to new (to get newest messages first) and you will get almost realtime updated data and analysis by the users. There was some really interesting data last night. One of the most important being that this storm basically cancelled its Eye Wall Regeneration Cycle. Typically, the storms will regenerate their eye wall every so often and during this time, the storm weakens or maintains strength. Last night, all signs were there pointing to a new eye wall being established soon. The new eye wall was showing structure inside the storm, the old one was showing signs of weakening, etc. Pretty much textbook EWRC, until it just stopped. Nobody knows why, nobody was even sure if this was known to have happened before. Of course, with the cancelled EWRC, the storm kept strengthening overnight, dropping down to 913 mbar. This was very unexpected, today things are a bit better as the mid-level wind sheer that Irma ignored yesterday is making its presence felt today. The eye is less organized and the pressure has risen to 922 mbar (which is still a remarkably strong storm, but at least it isn't strengthening). This is still a catastrophically strong storm, just not quite as catastrophic as it was at 2AM EDT last night.

Watching the models evolve has been very interesting too. GFS has overall been a bit more accurate initially, but Euro is rapidly falling in-line with GFS. Both GFS and Euro have been very squirrely, lots of wobbles in their predictions and a good amount of variation in the ensembles indicating a LOT of uncertainty (more on that later).

As for what the models are predicting on where it will go:

What are the likeliest scenarios?
East coast of Florida Landfall or Brush - Trending slightly up this morning. Both operational model runs are showing this right now, and it is well within their respective model ensembles.
Miami and South Florida Landfall - Holding steady this morning. It is the likeliest path in the center of the National Hurricane Center cone. Model runs have flip flopped between east and west of this location for the last couple of days and the NHC still maintains this is the center-line to follow. The Euro, the most reliable model, has most ensemble members going through this location.
West Coast of FL Landfall - [Trending slightly down this morning, but still in the top possibilities. It wouldn't take much for the models to shift back to a West Coast of FL Landfall, and it is very much within the cone.
Georgia Landfall[/B] - Trending slightly up this morning. If we get an east coast landfall or brush, many ensemble members and at least one operational run takes this storm into the Savannah area.
South Carolina Landfall - Trending up this morning. The Euro model run AND GFS model run both take the storm here. It is well out of the NHC cone because it is simply too far away right now, but I would be highly paying attention to this scenario.
North Carolina Landfall - Holding steady this morning. Yesterday we had a GFS operational run at 18z that took the storm into Wilmington, so the option is still open. It is not the likeliest scenario but it is also a long time from now. I would very much be paying attention in Wilmington.
Gulf Coast and Panhandle - Trending slightly down this morning after a ton of ensemble runs showed a Gulf entry yesterday. Ensemble members have shifted east, and even the western ensemble members hook it back into Florida.

Now for a bit of good news, bad news, worse news, even worse news. There have been some really scary model runs that occurred last night, with some models indicating possibly sub-880mbar pressures after strengthening (a few models even had it at sub 870-mBar). This would make it one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful, storms to ever exist in the Atlantic. The good news: These seem to have let up some due to the aforementioned weakening. The bad news: those models predicted a heavy strengthening followed by a, more or less, rapid collapse. They anticipated a weak grazing of Florida, followed by a weakening and eventual landfall at either strong CAT 3 or CAT 4. The new models don't have the storm getting that strong but anticipate it making a Cat 5 landing in the Miami-Dade area. Worse news: The new models indicate an 895 mBar pressure when it hits the Miami head-on. This would put it in the Top 5 Atlantic storm of ALL TIME (landfall or not) and within spitting distance of the Top 3 ("Labor Day" Storm was recorded at 892 mbar). Additionally, this would put it as either number 1 or number 2 of strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall ever (depending on if it drops below the 892mBar recorded for the Labor Day storm when it landed)! Even worse news: It is expected to retain its Cat V status until it rehits land somewhere between SC and VA.

That being said, this storm is so large and powerful, as I mentioned, the models are having a hard time getting a handle on it with a lot of uncertainty. We just don't have enough data on storms of this scale to make accurate models and forecasts. We can extrapolate from weaker storms but extrapolation only gets you so far. You can extrapolate how well a drag racer can perform but if your data is mostly Kia Rio's and Honda Accords, your estimate isn't going to be very good. That's kinda where they are with this storm. As such, a lot of the predictions will change dramatically over the next 48hours, as it has in the past 48-72h. Because of this rapid change, even if the models don't show it hitting your area, you are still at risk and should take basic precautions.

Darrell KSR
09-06-2017, 01:06 PM
2 pm advisory....



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJD0iUPXoAA57t3.jpg:large

Darrell KSR
09-06-2017, 01:08 PM
I have been keeping track of the details of the storm via the http://reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather they have a daily thread that monitors all scientific updates from this storm. If you go to that thread, set the sorting to new (to get newest messages first) and you will get almost realtime updated data and analysis by the users. There was some really interesting data last night. One of the most important being that this storm basically cancelled its Eye Wall Regeneration Cycle. Typically, the storms will regenerate their eye wall every so often and during this time, the storm weakens or maintains strength. Last night, all signs were there pointing to a new eye wall being established soon. The new eye wall was showing structure inside the storm, the old one was showing signs of weakening, etc. Pretty much textbook EWRC, until it just stopped. Nobody knows why, nobody was even sure if this was known to have happened before. Of course, with the cancelled EWRC, the storm kept strengthening overnight, dropping down to 913 mbar. This was very unexpected, today things are a bit better as the mid-level wind sheer that Irma ignored yesterday is making its presence felt today. The eye is less organized and the pressure has risen to 922 mbar (which is still a remarkably strong storm, but at least it isn't strengthening). This is still a catastrophically strong storm, just not quite as catastrophic as it was at 2AM EDT last night.

Watching the models evolve has been very interesting too. GFS has overall been a bit more accurate initially, but Euro is rapidly falling in-line with GFS. Both GFS and Euro have been very squirrely, lots of wobbles in their predictions and a good amount of variation in the ensembles indicating a LOT of uncertainty (more on that later).

As for what the models are predicting on where it will go:


Now for a bit of good news, bad news, worse news, even worse news. There have been some really scary model runs that occurred last night, with some models indicating possibly sub-880mbar pressures after strengthening (a few models even had it at sub 870-mBar). This would make it one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful, storms to ever exist in the Atlantic. The good news: These seem to have let up some due to the aforementioned weakening. The bad news: those models predicted a heavy strengthening followed by a, more or less, rapid collapse. They anticipated a weak grazing of Florida, followed by a weakening and eventual landfall at either strong CAT 3 or CAT 4. The new models don't have the storm getting that strong but anticipate it making a Cat 5 landing in the Miami-Dade area. Worse news: The new models indicate an 895 mBar pressure when it hits the Miami head-on. This would put it in the Top 5 Atlantic storm of ALL TIME (landfall or not) and within spitting distance of the Top 3 ("Labor Day" Storm was recorded at 892 mbar). Additionally, this would put it as either number 1 or number 2 of strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall ever (depending on if it drops below the 892mBar recorded for the Labor Day storm when it landed)! Even worse news: It is expected to retain its Cat V status until it rehits land somewhere between SC and VA.

That being said, this storm is so large and powerful, as I mentioned, the models are having a hard time getting a handle on it with a lot of uncertainty. We just don't have enough data on storms of this scale to make accurate models and forecasts. We can extrapolate from weaker storms but extrapolation only gets you so far. You can extrapolate how well a drag racer can perform but if your data is mostly Kia Rio's and Honda Accords, your estimate isn't going to be very good. That's kinda where they are with this storm. As such, a lot of the predictions will change dramatically over the next 48hours, as it has in the past 48-72h. Because of this rapid change, even if the models don't show it hitting your area, you are still at risk and should take basic precautions.

Great info, Pedro.

Hopefully all affected will heed your advice in the last sentence. It has the potential to be really devastating to human lives.

truecatsfan
09-06-2017, 04:37 PM
Just got through building a house in Hilton Head. Just got done furnishing the house last week. Was planning on going down after the game Sat. for a couple of weeks and go to the game. Just put the hurricane shutters up and hoping for the best.

CitizenBBN
09-06-2017, 07:57 PM
Just got through building a house in Hilton Head. Just got done furnishing the house last week. Was planning on going down after the game Sat. for a couple of weeks and go to the game. Just put the hurricane shutters up and hoping for the best.

Even if it goes that way they're predicting it will diminish to Cat 3 or so. NOt good of course, but not nearly so bad as it is right now.

That's if it diminishes of course. You never know about these things.

truecatsfan
09-06-2017, 08:13 PM
Even if it goes that way they're predicting it will diminish to Cat 3 or so. NOt good of course, but not nearly so bad as it is right now.

That's if it diminishes of course. You never know about these things.

What that they told me today was they are worried about the surge. Giving fifteen feet, that will put the island under water.

CitizenBBN
09-06-2017, 09:20 PM
What that they told me today was they are worried about the surge. Giving fifteen feet, that will put the island under water.

Makes sense. Hopefully that will be much lower as well.

On several of the keys 5 feet will be enough, including a fair amount of Key West. Solares Hill is the highest point and it's about 18' above sea level. most of the island is more in the 5-10 range.

if this thing hits as a Cat 5 they're saying the surge could be 15-25 feet. It could completely wipe out the island, even Solares Hill. The last time it was hit anything like this bad was 1935.

In general Key West has dodged the bad ones. There are many stories as to why, I prefer to think God knows his children need a place to take a break.

Hopefully this one will turn out to sea sooner than they expect and miss all of us.

CitizenBBN
09-06-2017, 09:37 PM
Checking around the webcams on the island. Schooner's Wharf is still open. Not busy, but a few folks there at the bar. But that bar serves a lot of marina folks, I wonder if that's why, and they're going to boat on out Friday or so if it keeps looking bad.

Catonahottinroof
09-06-2017, 09:59 PM
https://youtu.be/dA5qYrboTUE

Darrell KSR
09-06-2017, 10:12 PM
https://youtu.be/dA5qYrboTUE
Wow.

CitizenBBN
09-06-2017, 10:19 PM
Jeez. Unreal power.

CGWildcat
09-06-2017, 11:10 PM
My daughter and her husband are on a cruise down there right now. Heard from her today. She said they were okay for now and in St. Kitts. Hitting Bonaire tomorrow, but they shore up in Puerto Rico to fly back to Miami....sooooooo Prayers please.

CGWildcat
09-06-2017, 11:12 PM
https://people.uwec.edu/jolhm/EH2/Kiperts/index_files/an09.jpg

Definitely Homestead. I was in Opa Locka on duty that night. :confused0053:

Doc
09-07-2017, 07:09 AM
My daughter and her husband are on a cruise down there right now. Heard from her today. She said they were okay for now and in St. Kitts. Hitting Bonaire tomorrow, but they shore up in Puerto Rico to fly back to Miami....sooooooo Prayers please.

Im surprised they didnt reroute the cruise.

I was suppose to go to a wedding today on a cruise ship in Cape Canaveral. The wedding was to take place in port on the ship and then the guests disembark except for those going on the cruise (bride, groom, some of the family). It all got cancelled and after some scrambling they held it at a restaurant last night. Of course it was appropriate for the couple as its both of their second marriage....to each other. They "accidently" had a kid in college, then got married, he caught her in bed with another man, divorced, got back together and are now remarried. So an altered wedding plan due to a hurricane is par for the course

Doc
09-07-2017, 07:14 AM
https://youtu.be/dA5qYrboTUE

Where was the dumb ass weather reporter, usually eye candy, in a rain slicker that the networks stick in front of the camera to tell you how dangerous it is and to not go out, at? Probably got blown away too

Darrell KSR
09-07-2017, 09:11 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_wind_probs_34_F120+png/114654.png

Darrell KSR
09-07-2017, 09:13 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34+png/114654_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png

Darrell KSR
09-07-2017, 09:15 AM
6781

Doc
09-07-2017, 10:57 AM
6781

That NOT what I want.

Darrell KSR
09-07-2017, 10:58 AM
That NOT what I want.

Doc, I enlarged it and got more detail, and it looked very bad for your town. I know a "jig" here or there can make a ton of difference, so hopefully that will occur.

Catfan73
09-07-2017, 11:03 AM
Had someone tell me this morning to buy a couple of big gas cans and fill them up, and keep both cars topped off, said shortages are coming. I'm not sure how true it might be but it doesn't sound like a bad idea.

Doc
09-07-2017, 12:21 PM
I just finished putting up the majority of my hurricane shutters. Still have 3 big sliding glass door but want them open until the last minute as well as our chimney box (wood box that goes over the chimney then is tap conned into the concrete--although this time I might also strap it down as well!). Also one outdoor TV that I have to pull down and Direct TV dish.

Also trying to figure out which cars get the garage. Of course the 2 motorcycles have one but that also has tons of crap in it. The other one holds two cars after we cleaned it out and 4 candidates (Darrell thought it would be 5----I manage to reduce by one as my daughter is working for the Police dept and is on the next five days). Probably be the boys car since he has liabilty only where as I have total coverage. Of course I wouldn't consider leaving Shawn's car outside.

Have 75% full tank of propane... a full tank gets me about a week of generator power so I figure I got 4 to 5 days of juice one we lose power. Filled up the cars with gas and got some cash.

Think that the last prep we have. Got beer, bourbon, chips and hot dogs.

Doc
09-07-2017, 12:25 PM
Had someone tell me this morning to buy a couple of big gas cans and fill them up, and keep both cars topped off, said shortages are coming. I'm not sure how true it might be but it doesn't sound like a bad idea.

The helpful hints I got.... things like fill up zip lock bags and freeze them, turn your to max cold now, etc... are mostly stupid common sense. One person suggest I put my important paper inside my dishwasher because its "waterproof".

MickintheHam
09-07-2017, 01:05 PM
Folks in Kentucky should also take note of some of the latest models. Several show the sorms, after landfall in SC, the doing a loop de loop in Southeastern Ky. It looks like the center would be in the Middlesboro/Lake Cumberland/Danville areas of the state before exiting to West Va. winds shouldn't be a major concern, but flooding could be amsignificant issue. Don't have a link tomthe site, but folks back home should be on watch.

MickintheHam
09-07-2017, 01:07 PM
Has anyone heard from Suncat. This storm can't be good news for the Lake Okachobee area.

Darrell KSR
09-07-2017, 05:49 PM
Has anyone heard from Suncat. This storm can't be good news for the Lake Okachobee area.
Very concerned.

Darrell KSR
09-07-2017, 05:52 PM
I just finished putting up the majority of my hurricane shutters. Still have 3 big sliding glass door but want them open until the last minute as well as our chimney box (wood box that goes over the chimney then is tap conned into the concrete--although this time I might also strap it down as well!). Also one outdoor TV that I have to pull down and Direct TV dish.

Also trying to figure out which cars get the garage. Of course the 2 motorcycles have one but that also has tons of crap in it. The other one holds two cars after we cleaned it out and 4 candidates (Darrell thought it would be 5----I manage to reduce by one as my daughter is working for the Police dept and is on the next five days). Probably be the boys car since he has liabilty only where as I have total coverage. Of course I wouldn't consider leaving Shawn's car outside.

Have 75% full tank of propane... a full tank gets me about a week of generator power so I figure I got 4 to 5 days of juice one we lose power. Filled up the cars with gas and got some cash.

Think that the last prep we have. Got beer, bourbon, chips and hot dogs.

Take the #8 car and slide it behind the #9 car, then pull the #4 car down and shove over the other column. Then take the #3, do a "L" move with it and backward, and repeat. Then I don't know what you do with the motorcycles.

My only other suggestion is to power bank your cell phones in case you need to post a recruiting thought. Remember what's important.

kingcat
09-07-2017, 06:23 PM
Easy roof access might be important

Darrell KSR
09-07-2017, 07:55 PM
Gov. Rick Scott has also ordered mandatory evacuations for 7 cities along the southern part of Lake Okeechobee

The cities are:
- South Bay
- Lake Harbor
- Pahokee
- Moore Haven
- Clewiston
- Belle Glade
- Canal Point

MickintheHam
09-07-2017, 08:22 PM
Isn't Moore Haven where Suncat is? Godspeed!

dan_bgblue
09-07-2017, 08:46 PM
Isn't Moore Haven where Suncat is? Godspeed!

Yup that is his locale. I also feel sure he is working his butt off. Take care suncat!!!!!!!!!

blueboss
09-07-2017, 08:54 PM
Keep your head down Suncat...Know you're going to be out in it.


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Doc
09-07-2017, 08:56 PM
Take the #8 car and slide it behind the #9 car, then pull the #4 car down and shove over the other column. Then take the #3, do a "L" move with it and backward, and repeat. Then I don't know what you do with the motorcycles.

My only other suggestion is to power bank your cell phones in case you need to post a recruiting thought. Remember what's important.

Car 3 has no reverse

Doc
09-07-2017, 08:57 PM
Easy roof access might be important

Bought 5 lifejackets and 2 umbrellas today

Doc
09-07-2017, 09:00 PM
Isn't Moore Haven where Suncat is? Godspeed!

He is in LaBelle

Doc
09-07-2017, 09:23 PM
Looks like ill still be able to see the UK game as ot wont get bad till late Sat, then all day Sunday

CitizenBBN
09-07-2017, 09:48 PM
Looks like ill still be able to see the UK game as ot wont get bad till late Sat, then all day Sunday

It may get bad between 12 and 3 on Saturday, just not where you live. :)

KSRBEvans
09-07-2017, 10:29 PM
Was in Perdido Key last night & went in a Publix to get some things -all the water was gone. I mean, every last bottle. And Perdido's way west of the projected path & this was 4-5 days before it would hit, anyway. This definitely has everyone's attention. Hang tight, Doc, suncat & others in the path.

CitizenBBN
09-07-2017, 10:46 PM
Was in Perdido Key last night & went in a Publix to get some things -all the water was gone. I mean, every last bottle. And Perdido's way west of the projected path & this was 4-5 days before it would hit, anyway. This definitely has everyone's attention. Hang tight, Doc, suncat & others in the path.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Isn't Perdido Key out at the edge of the Fla. panhandle next to Gulf Shores? That's a LONG way from this thing for people to be hoarding water. Dang.

KSRBEvans
09-07-2017, 11:03 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Isn't Perdido Key out at the edge of the Fla. panhandle next to Gulf Shores? That's a LONG way from this thing for people to be hoarding water. Dang.

Yep. About as west as you can get & still be in Florida. Found it very odd.

CitizenBBN
09-07-2017, 11:39 PM
Yep. About as west as you can get & still be in Florida. Found it very odd.

Crazy is more like it. Even if the storm gets there, and there's no projection that it will, it'll be several days. Like you, I don't get it.

Maybe everyone just needed to hydrate after some hard drinking?

Doc
09-08-2017, 05:07 AM
The cuba effect, now a catagory 4...but are saying it may strenghten. Winds at 155

MickintheHam
09-08-2017, 05:13 AM
Bought 5 lifejackets and 2 umbrellas today

Are the umbrellas rated at 155 wind speed?

Doc
09-08-2017, 07:04 AM
Now winds 150

Doc
09-08-2017, 07:07 AM
Are the umbrellas rated at 155 wind speed?

http://i.istockimg.com/file_thumbview_approve/16305111/6/stock-photo-16305111-metal-umbrella.jpg

MickintheHam
09-08-2017, 07:42 AM
http://i.istockimg.com/file_thumbview_approve/16305111/6/stock-photo-16305111-metal-umbrella.jpg

nuff said good luck!

Darrell KSR
09-08-2017, 08:23 AM
Latest. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170908/2af2cd93a5efb222dd65ae6703882417.jpg

Darrell KSR
09-08-2017, 09:21 AM
The cuba effect, now a catagory 4...but are saying it may strenghten. Winds at 155
Whatever it is when it hits, it will be a major hurricane with powerful winds. Still hoping for better geography for it. My nephew is in Tampa, and they are concerned too, of course. Bad stuff.

Darrell KSR
09-08-2017, 09:29 AM
Crazy is more like it. Even if the storm gets there, and there's no projection that it will, it'll be several days. Like you, I don't get it.

Maybe everyone just needed to hydrate after some hard drinking?
There is a herd mentality that hits. A very lesser projection had Irma possibly going into the Gulf. If so, anything was possible for the Gulf Coast, and preparing 5-6 days early probably sounded good to a few. Then those few influenced others (I probably would have done the same thing if I were in the store and saw water supply dwindling, why not pick up a case or two that we would drink anyway).

Having lived in New Orleans and Miami during hurricane seasons, and even though tornado alley now, I see that a lot. Heck, you should see us when a snowflake hits.

*I should note that any of us who lived in Birmingham in March 1993 still have a healthy cynicism of "don't worry, be happy and play in the snow" projections. A couple of inches of snow projected turned into 18 and no power for days. As a guy who had 9-month old twins to keep warm and fed with one solo fireplace, any reasonable precautions I can take, even if fairly unlikely, I'll take.

Man, that was miserable.

PedroDaGr8
09-08-2017, 10:50 AM
The cuba effect, now a catagory 4...but are saying it may strenghten. Winds at 155

Cuba was a small part, bigger part was it was undergoing another Eye Wall Replacement Cycle. Those tend to weaken the absolute strength of the storm, with the result of making the storm even more massive. This storm is ENORMOUS at this point! See below, for a comparison between Irma and Andrew (Irma is the monster on the bottom right, Andrew is the top left):

https://media1.fdncms.com/orlando/imager/u/blog/6702021/screen_shot_2017-09-07_at_2.48.08_pm.png

In this image, you can see the old eyewall has collapsed. The current EWRC is just about complete and a newer larger eyewall has emerged. With it being over warm waters and warmer waters to come, this is going to be not only a massive storm in size but a massive storm in absolute power. Storm surges up to 20ft are expected. Most models have it making landfall as an enormous Cat 5.

On a couple of side-notes:

The new GOES-16 satellite that is covering the Caribbean is REALLY showing its value. The sheer amount of data that we get, image quality, etc. are hands over fists better than the old GOES satellite.
The US gov needs to work on updating their storm prediction models and providing more computing power to handle it. The GFS models, which used to be the best, are really showing their age, especially at any forecast longer than 48h. For the past 4-5 yrs, they are getting trounced by the Euro, UKMET, etc. They are in danger of falling out of the Top 5 if they don't develop a new model system soon. A lot of work and money goes into developing a new model system, something a lot of the rest of the world is doing and for good reason. The US has not and it shows. The US Military has already stopped using the US Governments weather data, at a huge cost, because Europe does a better job at forecasting (again improving models costs a lot of money and computing power). They used to be the best in the world, but budget cuts have damaged them severely.
This storm is crazy and Jose, who just became a Cat 4, is just behind it. This could be a humanitarian nightmare, with a Cat 4 or Cat 5 Jose hitting areas trounced by Irma. Even if Jose is no Irma, those areas are not capable of handling another one of this magnitude. This will be interesting to watch (not in a good way).

dan_bgblue
09-08-2017, 11:11 AM
Jmho, but Jose never hits land in the continental US. It will follow the path that everyone hoped Irma would take, which is to make a turn north and heading for far eastern Canada or possibly hopefully even further east of that.

Doc
09-08-2017, 11:17 AM
Im all locked in. Only the dront door and sat dish to coms down. Will do tomorrow. Good news for me is its going well west of me. Thats usually bad news as that puts me to the east of the storm which is the strong and wet side but the other option was it sfaying over open water. I prefer it hitting me after being land affected for a few hundred miles. Bad news is suncat is going to get hammered. Ill still get MAJOR effects but more cat 3ish

PedroDaGr8
09-08-2017, 11:46 AM
Jmho, but Jose never hits land in the continental US. It will follow the path that everyone hoped Irma would take, which is to make a turn north and heading for far eastern Canada or possibly hopefully even further east of that.

Agreed, Irma has disturbed the waters too much and sapped too much energy out of the area for it to be conducive to Jose long term. That being said, there is a good chance that Jose will hit the initial islands that Irma hit in the Carribean. That is what I meant by a humanitarian nightmare, maybe not for Americans but for those people, people on a relatively impoverished island devastated by a Cat 5 hurricane, hit again with a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane, that's nightmare fuel.

dan_bgblue
09-08-2017, 02:49 PM
I did not think of your comment that way. Unfortunately I was very USA centric in my thoughts and comment.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/08/as-world-watches-irma-hurricanes-jose-and-katia-gather-strength.html

Catonahottinroof
09-08-2017, 05:13 PM
Ground zero looks to be Marathon, then the Glades to the North.

CitizenBBN
09-08-2017, 10:44 PM
This thing is looking like the worst case scenario. Coming right at the keys dead center, up to a Cat 5 again as it leaves Cuba. Going to go straight up Florida and hit the whole state from coast to coast.

Unreal.

CitizenBBN
09-08-2017, 11:27 PM
Watching Fox, and they're playing video of people plywooding up buildings while doing an interview. It's all footage on Duval Street. Sloppy Joes, what used to be the Gecko next door, then Willie T's and the Walgreens in the old movie theater. that's straight up Duval on the north side.

Not sure if anyone is interested, but I'm going to follow some of the webcams a long as they broadcast. Some links:

About middle of Duval street, facing Bogart's:
http://wickerguesthouse.com/webcam/

This is down just off Mallory Square, faces Red Fish Blue Fish, and the back entrance to Hog's Breath. This is the far west of Duval and Old Town:
http://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/

This is Sloppy Joe's outside, just up from the one I just posted:
http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/

This is the opposite end of the island, Atlantic side, Southernmost Point:
http://southernmostpointwebcam.com/

Mallory Square, the Old Town most western point:
http://www.oceankey.com/key-west-webcam.aspx

CitizenBBN
09-08-2017, 11:31 PM
I heard a story about the Hemmingway folks trying to deal with protecting the cats (famous for having mostly 6 toes), but Key West is also home to gypsy chickens that roam free on the island. One local is trying to protect them too:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article171996022.html

http://pics.mcclatchyinteractive.com/news/nation-world/national/ewdo9f/picture171996017/alternates/FREE_1140/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-08%20at%2011.23.35%20AM

Yes, those are chickens wrapped in newspaper. How he got them I don't know, they're not afraid of people but they aren't domesticated at all.

MickintheHam
09-09-2017, 03:28 AM
This thing, as I have continued to be concerned, is continuing to move west. It is now slated to come ashore in SW Florida. A few more miles to the west it comes through Tampa or worse yet, it stays in the Gulf. Right now it appears it will go right up the coast and maintain Cat 3 or 4 status all the way. The panhandle and Alabama could come into play. I remember Opal and don't need another.

Doc
09-09-2017, 06:15 AM
The westwart trend is a blessing for me. Now it looks as though I will be spared the majority of the storm's effects. Habe had some rain bands this morning and are predicting only tropical strom force winds today

Doc
09-09-2017, 08:18 AM
The Cuba effect has knocked it down to winds of 130 which is a huge blessing. Will kick up a bit between Cuba and FL but at least it has to build again. Of course 130 is major but its markedly better than 185.

suncat05
09-09-2017, 08:39 AM
Okay, I am currently in the Glades County Emergency Operations Center. And yes, I have been as busy as a one armed painter.
Latest I have heard has Irma going over Naples & Ft. Myers.
I am right on the lower southwest side of Lake Okeechobee in Moore Haven. We're being told we're going to catch the backside of this storm, and that is NOT good.
We have all kinds of help either here or on the way. FEMA, the FL Army National Guard, the Red Cross, FHP, and more coming. We even had a Fire Dept. From Michigan call yesterday offering personnel to help.
I live right on the Lake. My wife, son, & my dogs all went to stay with friends in Avon Park, which is about an hour north of us on US 27. My daughter is in Gainesville with friends.
I am a little more optimistic than some. I believe once it hits real solid land that it will start to dissipate, even though it will keep moving northward.
We'll be okay. Anything we have can be replaced. I just want my family & dogs to be safe. We can start over if need be.
This is where faith in God our Heavenly Father comes into play. I believe that He will guide us through this. And in another note, any prayers you guys offer up for are greatly appreciated.

suncat05
09-09-2017, 08:43 AM
Oh, yeah, did I mention that this storm is going to be a real frog strangler? 🐸

Catfan73
09-09-2017, 08:49 AM
Stay safe Suncat, as much as you can under the circumstances. I imagine all emergency personnel will hunker down during the worst of it? Sending prayers your way and to everyone affected. I have family in Lehigh Acres, Bradenton, St. Pete, Winter Garden, and Mexico Beach. All have gone north or otherwise taken shelter. Prayers to all.

suncat05
09-09-2017, 09:04 AM
Lehigh Acres is just west outside of Ft. Myers. Off of State Road 80.

Catfan73
09-09-2017, 09:09 AM
Been there once. A couple of my wife's aunts live there, right next door to each other. They've gone to stay with family; hopefully they'll have something to come home to.

suncat05
09-09-2017, 09:20 AM
10 personnel from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers checked in about a half hour ago.

Darrell KSR
09-09-2017, 09:32 AM
@NWSKeyWest: Hurricane #Irma will strengthen when it moves away from Cuba. This powerful hurricane is expected to make landfall in the Lower #FLKeys. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170909/6d54a7d5fba94d3ba3169bc6bcd88877.jpg

blueboss
09-09-2017, 09:33 AM
10 personnel from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers checked in about a half hour ago.

Good to hear you've got your family moved out of the bullseye. Sounds like you're also getting some backup into your area as well. Hunker down and when you get out in the aftermath stay safe and God bless.


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dan_bgblue
09-09-2017, 09:43 AM
10 personnel from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers checked in about a half hour ago.

If worse comes to worst, each of them can stick a finger in the dike.

:thinking2:

suncat05
09-09-2017, 10:04 AM
If worse comes to worse, each of them can stick a finger in the dike.

:thinking2:
LOL! 😉

MickintheHam
09-09-2017, 10:21 AM
Godspeed!

Darrell KSR
09-09-2017, 11:50 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJSp1ZHX0AEadxp.jpg

kingcat
09-09-2017, 12:04 PM
My prayers are that this monster dissipates quickly and our friends down there remain safe

Doc
09-09-2017, 12:54 PM
Its now a cat 3 with 125 mph winds and a pressure is up to 941 mb, but it has slowed down to 9 mph due west. No north turn get

Doc
09-09-2017, 01:00 PM
,

kingcat
09-09-2017, 02:02 PM
I like that official.

dan_bgblue
09-09-2017, 07:11 PM
Downtown Key West video live stream. I have been watching for a few minutes and HAVE seen a few folks wandering down the street.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

dan_bgblue
09-09-2017, 07:33 PM
Southern most point (Key West) live video stream


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

MickintheHam
09-09-2017, 08:08 PM
Its now a cat 3 with 125 mph winds and a pressure is up to 941 mb, but it has slowed down to 9 mph due west. No north turn get

The storm will regain strength. I am still concerned it will wind up going into the Gulf and staying there until it reaches the Big Bend.

CitizenBBN
09-09-2017, 09:33 PM
Downtown Key West video live stream. I have been watching for a few minutes and HAVE seen a few folks wandering down the street.

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc)

Thanks Dan, I've been flipping between the YouTube feeds and the local cams.

Still quite a few there. Saw some people walking their dog on Duval about 3pm. Godspeed to them all.

CitizenBBN
09-09-2017, 10:35 PM
Looks like Old Town lost power about 15-25 minutes ago. Some underground run street lights and such are working so it's the above ground wiring and the plant is still operating.

reading that lots of folks who stayed have gone to La Conche, one of the oldest hotels there and a little more island than the new resorts. They opened the old high school too. which is ironic b/c it's a grand old building up on Flagler that has been on the market for 3 years or so with no takers. Was going to get converted to condos, deal fell through. With the demand there for real estate you know it has issues.

MickintheHam
09-09-2017, 10:57 PM
Not to drift off topic, but It is interesting to see how much human behavior with regard to hurricanes has changed in my lifetime. I can barely remember hurricane Betsy and a few others that hit New Orleans. My aunt and uncle at the first hint of a hurricane would book a couple of rooms either at the Roosevelt Hotel or the Monteleone. One room was for kids and the other was theirs to host a party. The ballrooms would book Al Hirt, Pete Fountain and other musicians to keep the party going 24/7.

People who stayed in their homes had neighbors over to party. After the hurricane everyone would talk about how bad the storm was but they all had a good time.

Those memories stand in stark contrast to all the huddled masses in the shelters. Could somebody not open the concession stands in these auditoriums and arenas and serve some booze? Why not turn on the arena sound systems and run through the hockey team playlist? It is just so grim! Life is too short to be so miserable. Too many transplants have moved into these areas. They have no business there.

CitizenBBN
09-09-2017, 11:04 PM
If it makes you feel better Mick there are reports that's what folks are doing at La Conche. Bourbon St Bar stayed open a long while too.

Doc
09-09-2017, 11:38 PM
Not to drift off topic, but It is interesting to see how much human behavior with regard to hurricanes has changed in my lifetime. I can barely remember hurricane Betsy and a few others that hit New Orleans. My aunt and uncle at the first hint of a hurricane would book a couple of rooms either at the Roosevelt Hotel or the Monteleone. One room was for kids and the other was theirs to host a party. The ballrooms would book Al Hirt, Pete Fountain and other musicians to keep the party going 24/7.

People who stayed in their homes had neighbors over to party. After the hurricane everyone would talk about how bad the storm was but they all had a good time.

Those memories stand in stark contrast to all the huddled masses in the shelters. Could somebody not open the concession stands in these auditoriums and arenas and serve some booze? Why not turn on the arena sound systems and run through the hockey team playlist? It is just so grim! Life is too short to be so miserable. Too many transplants have moved into these areas. They have no business there.


I'm always amazed at the idiots and freeloaders. I had to pick up some bolts today at Home Depot as I was short a couple, and was in the parking lot. I stopped at a stop sign and started to go thru when an older gentleman started to cross so I stopped and signaled him to go ahead. He point at the stop sign and proceeded to cuss me out. Not sure why.
We take in boarders during storms for folks who go to shelters. We require they bring a gallon of water in the event we lose water. The number who comment that they can't find water for themselves let alone their pet is remarkable. We simple explain to them all they need to do is get an empty gallon milk jug and fill it with TAP WATER because tap water is drinkable if you fill it BEFORE the hurricane

MickintheHam
09-10-2017, 12:04 AM
If it makes you feel better Mick there are reports that's what folks are doing at La Conche. Bourbon St Bar stayed open a long while too.
That's what I assumed they were doing. But look at how few there are. When faced with a situation you can't control make light of it. It's Mother Nature's reminder that material goods are not that important. Make the best of a bad situation. I blame all the bad attitudes on the weather channel.

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 12:09 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJVN_rpW0AE0KeN.jpg:large

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 12:12 AM
My daughter's little college in Georgia canceled classes Monday and Tuesday in preparation for Irma. It's not far from Mick's favorite Alabama town name, Wedowee!!!!!

I think they're going to be fine, but it will rain a lot, and in that "39 to 70" mph winds thing.

Catfan73
09-10-2017, 05:06 AM
Lehigh Acres is just west outside of Ft. Myers. Off of State Road 80.

I've been corrected by Mrs. Catfan73; her aunts live in Cape Coral. One of their daughters lives in Lehigh Acres. Hope everyone found something to hold onto!

suncat05
09-10-2017, 05:39 AM
Oooooh, Cape Coral. The fastest growing city in the U.S., or so it is said on the news.

suncat05
09-10-2017, 05:45 AM
I got up at 5 AM. I'm sitting at the front desk in the EOC watching one of the rain bands roll through.
Yeah, it's gonna be a real frog strangler. 🐸

Doc
09-10-2017, 07:30 AM
Were getting rain ban after rain ban. Ive not ventured outside yet but will do after my shower and coffee. Expecting 24 to 36 hrs of continual rain with episodes of gust upwards of 80 mph. Hope to not lose cable as I want to watch NFL today

Doc
09-10-2017, 08:25 AM
We just lost power so now on generator but still have cable and internet

suncat05
09-10-2017, 09:22 AM
3 people have died in Florida due to driving in this mess. One in the Keys, two in Hardee County.
More bands of rain rolling in here locally, starting get reports of power outages and debris n the roadways.

kingcat
09-10-2017, 10:23 AM
Stay safe!

blueboss
09-10-2017, 10:59 AM
That's what I assumed they were doing. But look at how few there are. When faced with a situation you can't control make light of it. It's Mother Nature's reminder that material goods are not that important. Make the best of a bad situation. I blame all the bad attitudes on the weather channel.

The Weather Channel and other media guys are almost saddened when there isn't much flooding, and wind destruction to report.

Right now they're trying to exaggerate some street flooding, repeating several inches.

My friends in and around Stuart are doing pretty good, still have power. I just got a text from one of them around Port Salerno west of US 1... she stated so far not much to worry about. Another over by Hobe Sound basically said the same thing. Looks like our friends on the east coast dodged the bullet... right now they're more worried about small pop up tornadoes.


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Doc
09-10-2017, 11:04 AM
And like that, we got power back! Will see for how lomg

blueboss
09-10-2017, 11:05 AM
Ooops


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

MickintheHam
09-10-2017, 11:10 AM
And like that, we got power back! Will see for how lomg

Good Luck, Doc! I woke to a breezy morning here in the Ham. Winds out ot the east so I'm pretty sure it is tropical related. The latest shows the strom blowing through here late Monday night. Should be about 40-60 mph gusts. All the hotels are packed. Couple from Palm City were interviewed by AL.com. They said they had stayed home for Matthew but were too concerened with this storm to stay.

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 11:11 AM
And like that, we got power back! Will see for how lomg
Shh...Don't jinx it.

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 11:13 AM
11am key messages. This is still a powerful, dangerous hurricane. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/8f35de4a1123027383f1bfcb373b3a5c.jpg

Doc
09-10-2017, 11:24 AM
What is annoying is I have 9 channels with 24 hr hurricane coverage and nothing else. To watch football I have to got to my streaming box

blueboss
09-10-2017, 11:31 AM
If it makes you feel better Mick there are reports that's what folks are doing at La Conche. Bourbon St Bar stayed open a long while too.

What are you hearing out of the Keys this morning???


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Catonahottinroof
09-10-2017, 11:44 AM
Not exactly what you wish to be hearing......

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/09/10/hurricane-irma-batters-key-west-florida-keys/651064001/


What are you hearing out of the Keys this morning???


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Catonahottinroof
09-10-2017, 11:52 AM
In Key West
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/906848170050818048/video/1

MickintheHam
09-10-2017, 12:06 PM
What is annoying is I have 9 channels with 24 hr hurricane coverage and nothing else. To watch football I have to got to my streaming box

Three isolated cells off the coast south of Fort Pierce, Doc. Not Good. Looks like dozens of tornados on the east coast today!

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 12:27 PM
What are you hearing out of the Keys this morning???


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I'm trying to find out what I can. Power went down across the island about 11pm or so last night, the last webcam was at Irish Kevin's, which oddly stayed on for hours after the main power went down. It was showing Duval covered in water, but it was still inches and not feet.

Found this by checking twitter:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23KeyWest&src=tyah

Several videos, one shows flooding but honestly where I think he's at it's not as bad as I had feared. But that was 5-6 hours ago now.

If the surge stays at 5-7 feet most of the island will get waterlogged but not wiped out. They've dealt with that many times over the years, and Paradise survives.

But if they get 8-10 or more in surge that's going to be a real hit and a half. the middle of old town is the high point, that's the "X flood zone", and that's about 10 feet or more above sea level. That hasn't flooded in more than a century I don't think, but the lower areas are going to be hit hard and even on the hill and the high areas the sheer rainfall of 20 inches will of course lead to a lot of basic flooding and water damage.

The Naval Air Station has people there, their last video was about 5-6 hours as well, and a guy on one of the boats was doing a facebook live about that same time this morning.

So far it was bad but not the complete destruction I've feared. But Key West is in the very worst spot to be, just on the eyewall. The eye will cross about Cudjoe key, where a lot of the locals who work there are now living b/c Key West is so expensive. Hopefully they got out, those islands are even lower than Key West, which is part of why that city has remained for so long.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 12:34 PM
In Key West
https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/906848170050818048/video/1

God, I'm going to be sick. I just figured out where that is. I was just there staying not 50' from that intersection in July. It's the corner of Francis and Eaton, edge of old town before the NAS. It means Caroline, Front and Green are all under water.

it still looks like about a foot or less there, and that intersection on the right starts the rise up the hill, and honestly that's good news given the predictions, but I'm still sick.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 12:37 PM
here's that intersection in normal circumstances if anyone is interested. Think this link will work.

We rented a place on Francis, about 3-4 doors down from that intersection the last trip.

https://www.google.com/maps/@24.5611744,-81.7967183,3a,75y,22.65h,94.09t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sMhTJYO7zL2j9pzkWvmzyQg!2e0!7i1 3312!8i6656
(https://www.google.com/maps/@24.5611744,-81.7967183,3a,75y,22.65h,94.09t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sMhTJYO7zL2j9pzkWvmzyQg!2e0!7i1 3312!8i6656)

Catonahottinroof
09-10-2017, 12:47 PM
If I read it Twitter correctly, that vid was posted around 7:00am this morning. Landfall was at 9:10am.
here's that intersection in normal circumstances if anyone is interested. Think this link will work.

We rented a place on Francis, about 3-4 doors down from that intersection the last trip.

https://www.google.com/maps/@24.5611744,-81.7967183,3a,75y,22.65h,94.09t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sMhTJYO7zL2j9pzkWvmzyQg!2e0!7i1 3312!8i6656
(https://www.google.com/maps/@24.5611744,-81.7967183,3a,75y,22.65h,94.09t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sMhTJYO7zL2j9pzkWvmzyQg!2e0!7i1 3312!8i6656)

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 12:54 PM
Yep, it has to be worse by now, and it's still only halfway through.

Key West was in about the worst spot possible for this. All of the lower keys are going to be hit hard,and it will be slow to get help back in due to the access. If the airport is operational it could help, and they can ferry a lot over as well if the docks are still OK. They can use the ferry dock but also the Mallory Square and Naval docks. You can actually get a lot there if they can get the boats.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 12:58 PM
Of course downtown Miami looks about as bad based on the video posted. Looks like the high rises are all surrounded by water down on the shore line.

Saw a post the cats are all safe at Hemmingways. That house was built by him out of coral blocks, it's damned bunker. Seriously the walls are more than a foot thick solid quarried coral stone, built up on the X zone height. I think it could defend artillery.

blueboss
09-10-2017, 01:06 PM
God, I'm going to be sick. I just figured out where that is. I was just there staying not 50' from that intersection in July. It's the corner of Francis and Eaton, edge of old town before the NAS. It means Caroline, Front and Green are all under water.

it still looks like about a foot or less there, and that intersection on the right starts the rise up the hill, and honestly that's good news given the predictions, but I'm still sick.

Doesn't look good, but it doesn't look like devastation. I'm surprised none of the weather guys stayed on any of the Keys to broadcast from. Fingers crossed for Cudjoe Key and those folks.


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Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 01:08 PM
3 people have died in Florida due to driving in this mess. One in the Keys, two in Hardee County.
More bands of rain rolling in here locally, starting get reports of power outages and debris n the roadways.
Hardee County deaths included a Sheriff deputy doing God's work and a correction officer.

Stay safe, Suncat. Really brings it home. God bless, friend.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/40bf64d1125fa3de882ffd63b312be1e.jpg

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 01:11 PM
Doesn't look good, but it doesn't look like devastation. I'm surprised none of the weather guys stayed on any of the Keys to broadcast from. Fingers crossed for Cudjoe Key and those folks.


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That's where I'm at so far. Won't be good, but so far not wiped out either. I've been there twice after big storms, it's stunning how fast everyone wrings out the water and gets back to the Key West way of things.

But I am worried with no updates in the last 5-6 hours. There is a Miami Herald guy on the island and looks like 2-3 storm chasers as well. Either the cell towers are out and they have no satellite gear or they're hunkered down.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 01:13 PM
I've seen some real damage in marathon, and that's not surprising. Like I said those islands are even less protected, smaller, shorter and frankly many of the properties less well built than Key West. The amount of property will be smaller but they will probably be harder hit.

blueboss
09-10-2017, 01:24 PM
If I read it Twitter correctly, that vid was posted around 7:00am this morning. Landfall was at 9:10am.

I think landfall is based on when the eye contacts land. The outer eye wall and outer bands were most assuredly pummeling the area a couple of hours prior


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CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 01:27 PM
Naval Air Station KW reporting what I had hoped in a sad way, that the reason there are no reports from KW is there is no cell service.

Gettign conflicting reports. One tweet says it's OK so far, just the usual level of flooding (she's right, that Duval/Front area I was talking about does flood even in non-big storms), but also a report through a Miami Herald contact that there may be 14' foot of water and 5 dead at the Hyatt.

The only Hyatt I know of there is down on Front and that area, far west side above Mallory Square. Makes sense, that area does get hit hard and that's where that other video was at generall as well. But there are other regular Hyatt hotels up in new town too.

But a 14' surge would be extreme.

Catonahottinroof
09-10-2017, 01:34 PM
Both CNN and Fox have said its when the eye wall interacts with land and the lowest barometric pressure is read over land.

I think landfall is based on when the eye contacts land. The outer eye wall and outer bands were most assuredly pummeling the area a couple of hours prior


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blueboss
09-10-2017, 02:08 PM
Both CNN and Fox have said its when the eye wall interacts with land and the lowest barometric pressure is read over land.

Which is currently happening for the second time Irma has made landfall in Fl as it crosses Marco Island.


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blueboss
09-10-2017, 02:20 PM
St Lucie county is getting hammered with tornado activity... onshore/offshore


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dan_bgblue
09-10-2017, 02:31 PM
According to several reports, Cudjoe island experienced a 10 foot storm surge

MickintheHam
09-10-2017, 02:41 PM
According to several reports, Cudjoe island experienced a 10 foot storm surge

That is a staggering blow.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 02:56 PM
That is a staggering blow.

I see it as both good and awful news. Cudjoe key will get the worst of it, so if 10' is the worst most of the rest of the keys probably got 5-7 or so, which is good news compared to the dire predictions of 10-15 and even 20+ surges.

BUT, I have friends who live on Cudjoe, and that island is ill prepared for that kind of impact. The houses up on stilts may be OK but maybe not b/c of the sheer force, but the others are likely gone. It's not tiny but it is small, and it's flat.

But I imagine Sugarloaf, Big Pine, they're all going to take a real hit. But they've taken a number of them over the decades, and they're still there. As long as no one was killed they'll fix it up and keep right on keepin' on.

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 03:14 PM
Blue got in. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/f71a29e913e4738978dd3f50ea756ae1.jpg

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 03:22 PM
Increasingly good news from Key West. Airport fb post says things are OK. Surge was there, but doesn't sound like it was any worse than any other storm they've faced. I've been there within a week of 2 of them, if that's all they got they'll be OK.

blueboss
09-10-2017, 03:34 PM
Increasingly good news from Key West. Airport fb post says things are OK. Surge was there, but doesn't sound like it was any worse than any other storm they've faced. I've been there within a week of 2 of them, if that's all they got they'll be OK.

The Fox News guy just queried how the folks in in Key West fared. He mentioned Cudjoe getting the worst of it, then he he said, " one thing for sure, those Conchs will fix it up and get right back after it". He mentioned the Cat Lady and waiting for the perfect sunset at Mallory Square.


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MickintheHam
09-10-2017, 04:14 PM
The Fox News guy just queried how the folks in in Key West fared. He mentioned Cudjoe getting the worst of it, then he he said, " one thing for sure, those Conchs will fix it up and get right back after it". He mentioned the Cat Lady and waiting for the perfect sunset at Mallory Square.


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He used a pejorative. Fox needs to be more politically correct.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:23 PM
"feline endeared person of gender" I think is now the correct term. lol

More mixed signals, they're gearing up for a C130 based supply mission, sounds like they are very worried about the lower and middle keys. Going to try to get to Marathon airport first.

My guess is Key West is about like normal from a storm, as are the larger keys, but the smaller ones like Cudjoe, Sugarloaf, Big Pine, etc. may be really in trouble.

But the CNN guy was down on Plantation Key and it looked OK. It's all beaten up, but OK. I'm thinking the media is making more of this than is really there, which is no surprise.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:23 PM
Oh, and all of the sunsets are perfect,b/c just stopping to watch one is the important part.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:24 PM
If this is real, it wins for best picture of this whole mess.

Supposedly this is on I-75.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJYOlT0W4AATZLT.jpg

https://twitter.com/mopage19/status/906928414858338304

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 04:28 PM
Related, but not exactly news.

Girl I coached in volleyball is a freshman at Florida State. Her mom just told us that they canceled classes next week, so Emily came home last night. I think they (FSU) believed the campus was safe, but would lose power and it would be out for several days, possibly. Given that existence, Emily brought a friend (whose parents live near the Keys) home with her.

Jefferson County schools here in Birmingham have canceled classes tomorrow and Tuesday. I am awaiting Shelby County's response (where we live/son goes to school).

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 04:28 PM
If this is real, it wins for best picture of this whole mess.

Supposedly this is on I-75.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJYOlT0W4AATZLT.jpg

https://twitter.com/mopage19/status/906928414858338304

Believe that's the fake shark pic that routinely goes around for hurricanes. I'm just guessing; not sure I've ever seen it, but they joke about it on twitter a lot.

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 04:30 PM
Shark gets around. He was in Houston a week or so ago.

6783

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:39 PM
Believe that's the fake shark pic that routinely goes around for hurricanes. I'm just guessing; not sure I've ever seen it, but they joke about it on twitter a lot.

Figured it had to be. I thought it was that one too. Good shop work, I esp. like how you can see the pic was taken from a truck in the rear view, then the shark pasted in.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:40 PM
Shark gets around. He was in Houston a week or so ago.

6783

They spend all that money to try to track them, they just need to let social media do it. :)

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:42 PM
Sounding like KW is as fine as one could expect. Some reports from the Hemmingway house staff saying no surge there, typical trees down and such. That's a high point, so if there was water there it's bad, but if Whitehead and Olivia are OK that means this was more of the "typical" bad storm for them.

But not much out of the other lower keys yet.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:45 PM
Guy at La Concha saying caroline and that area is flooded, but as I said above that's not unusual in about any big storm. Sounds like about like a normal tropical storm impact.


Re The shark pic, there are also a number of tweeted and re-tweeted "key west" and "south florida" videos that are "live" that aren't live and aren't even of Florida. Anything for clicks I guess.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 04:49 PM
One last post on the KW subject.

Miami Herald reporter just submitted that KW is bruised but OK and the locals say they're ready for a drink.

Now you know why I like it there. It will be a race between electricity and getting the bars open as to what takes priority. Not that they ever stopped drinking, but they'll want to get the bars open b/c it's a very social activity.

Catonahottinroof
09-10-2017, 05:03 PM
We love that area too. The people are resilient and salt of the earth. My concern would be the area to the right of the eyewall. Marathon etc. they received the harshest of the winds and rain.
One last post on the KW subject.

Miami Herald reporter just submitted that KW is bruised but OK and the locals say they're ready for a drink.

Now you know why I like it there. It will be a race between electricity and getting the bars open as to what takes priority. Not that they ever stopped drinking, but they'll want to get the bars open b/c it's a very social activity.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 05:11 PM
We love that area too. The people are resilient and salt of the earth. My concern would be the area to the right of the eyewall. Marathon etc. they received the harshest of the winds and rain.

Much more worried about the rest of the lower keys and the middle keys. I'm betting they're OK, just beaten up. I think the media is playing this up a lot more than the actual impact. It was bad, but not 'wiped off the face of the earth' bad or anything.

They're esp. playing up that mortuary teams are going in as part of the recovery. I am betting that is standard procedure, they'll take in all that stuff. At least I sure hope so.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 05:17 PM
Well this is cool, Atlanta gets it's very first tropical storm warning. You don't see that every day.

blueboss
09-10-2017, 05:26 PM
Shark gets around. He was in Houston a week or so ago.

6783

Sharknado is alive and well!!!


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blueboss
09-10-2017, 05:30 PM
.... and in the " you can't make this stuff up" category. When asked about how high the wind gust are getting, a female reporter standing rain soaked in the middle of a street said " it's really strong, it literally just blew my hat off"

I swear....


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CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 05:31 PM
.... and in the " you can't make this stuff up" category. When asked about how high the wind gust are getting, a female reporter standing rain soaked in the middle of a street said " it's really strong, it literally just blew my hat off"

I swear....


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I think "blow your hat off" is somewhere between Cat 4 and Cat 5. lol

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 05:37 PM
And Shelby County Schools are closed tomorrow and Tuesday.

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 05:46 PM
And Shelby County Schools are closed tomorrow and Tuesday.

Sorry, but if you don't have a tropical storm warning you aren't all cool like Atlanta. :)

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 05:55 PM
Does this count? We're being "affected" by the Hurricane?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170910/0bf850832f3637af6e1530629daaca86.jpg

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 05:57 PM
May get you into the band or the chess club. :)

Catonahottinroof
09-10-2017, 06:05 PM
Marathon HS this morning
6784

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 06:32 PM
May get you into the band or the chess club. :)
I'm back in high school claiming athlete status for being on the golf team.

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 07:27 PM
Bread aisle and water aisle, respectively, at Walmart in Birmingham tonight. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170911/20fa130f13fc802664a970b0ec333827.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170911/e8ff4261ea302be738026872e1b1f224.jpg

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 07:45 PM
Well since you were on the golf team, as long as you vouch for the rest of Birmingham I guess Atlanta may let you in the club. :)


As for the bread and water thing, what exactly do folks think is going to happen there?

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 08:08 PM
I am ready. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170911/29f9e37be2b81435b5310c66fcc1155c.jpg

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 08:14 PM
Didn't you get that notice that you shouldn't throw hurricane parties and get drunk?

But feel free to send out invites and I'll stand up to the man with you. :) That does look good. I had some leftover Wendy's chili.

Darrell KSR
09-10-2017, 08:24 PM
Didn't you get that notice that you shouldn't throw hurricane parties and get drunk?

But feel free to send out invites and I'll stand up to the man with you. :) That does look good. I had some leftover Wendy's chili.
I'm from New Orleans and Miami by marriage and school. We subscribe to different rules. I was just happy the fools went for the water and left the beer alone.

Doc
09-10-2017, 08:32 PM
Looks like its past me now! Or at least Im past the worse of it

dan_bgblue
09-10-2017, 08:48 PM
That is great news Doc. I truly hope that any damage you incurred was minimal. How would you describe flooding in your area, that is if any has occurred.

Catonahottinroof
09-10-2017, 09:02 PM
In Naples....


https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChannel/videos/10155819540155921/

CitizenBBN
09-10-2017, 09:18 PM
I'm from New Orleans and Miami by marriage and school. We subscribe to different rules. I was just happy the fools went for the water and left the beer alone.

Mick is right, once you're in it no reason to lose your mind. Have a drink and hope for the best.

I know it's in your DNA. Not so sure about your neighbors. Like you said, they cleaned out the water and left the booze.

Doc
09-10-2017, 09:32 PM
That is great news Doc. I truly hope that any damage you incurred was minimal. How would you describe flooding in your area, that is if any has occurred.

Not bad

suncat05
09-11-2017, 06:47 AM
Nothing official to report right now, but damage assessment is underway here by the S.O., the Fire Dept., & the Road Dept.
I've received a few calls here already from folks that left to get away from the storm and want to know if it's clear to come back.
We can receive phone calls here at the EOC but cannot call out.
Just from what I'm hearing, it's bad in places and in others it's like there was no storm at all.
It's south Florida in September. At this point that's all I can definitively say.

HerbTarlek
09-11-2017, 07:28 AM
Irma has arrived in the ATL. As is the custom here, because no one has to work, it's an excuse to party. Need bottled water? No problem. Public is flush to the gunnels. Need liquor? T.S. Liqour stores are empty. Go figure. My local opened early today, their sandwich board touting that they might lose power later, so we have to start early.

MickintheHam
09-11-2017, 07:45 AM
Irma has arrived in the ATL. As is the custom here, because no one has to work, it's an excuse to party. Need bottled water? No problem. Public is flush to the gunnels. Need liquor? T.S. Liqour stores are empty. Go figure. My local opened early today, their sandwich board touting that they might lose power later, so we have to start early.

What else ya gonna do? Party on! Life never gives us enough chances to be carefree.

suncat05
09-11-2017, 12:07 PM
Okay, I was able to make it home for about 45 minutes. I have very minimal damage. I lost shingles from the roof, some siding on three sides of the house, my steps to the back door are now sitting just inside my front gate ( 😂 ) , but no damage inside the house and no broken windows.
We have no power, of course, and no phone and internet is spotty.
But nobody in my family was injured, and my pups are fine.
Somebody upstairs was looking out for my family and my house. I owe Him more devotion than ever.

suncat05
09-11-2017, 12:15 PM
In other related news, Hurricane Irma affected differing areas of the county in different ways. We have power lines down all over, some homes are destroyed, some minimally touched, others with zero damage. As rough as the winds were, I'm really surprised the damage wasn't much worse.

suncat05
09-11-2017, 12:26 PM
Last night, during the beginning of the worst part of this event, we receive a 9-1-1 emergency call from a lady that said her husband was outside, face down in water, and he wasn't breathing. So, even though the Sheriff and the Public Safety Director send out a response, even though it was NOT safe for any human to be out in this mess. And if course our people get there, there's no one face down in anything.
I've heard that this individual that called this in may be in for a very unpleasant surprise. And rightfully so......

Catonahottinroof
09-11-2017, 12:35 PM
Twitter stuff from Sugarloaf Key in the middle keys
6788
6789
6790

Darrell KSR
09-11-2017, 03:10 PM
Last night, during the beginning of the worst part of this event, we receive a 9-1-1 emergency call from a lady that said her husband was outside, face down in water, and he wasn't breathing. So, even though the Sheriff and the Public Safety Director send out a response, even though it was NOT safe for any human to be out in this mess. And if course our people get there, there's no one face down in anything.
I've heard that this individual that called this in may be in for a very unpleasant surprise. And rightfully so......

Putting lives in danger as a joke? There can't be a harsh enough punishment.

Catfan73
09-11-2017, 04:49 PM
About 30 years ago I was offered a job at the Marine Institute on Big Pine Key but turned them down. I'm sure it was just me but it seemed so isolated at the time. I thought I was at the end of the world lol. It probably didn't help to ease my fears any that they flew me from Miami to Marathon on a puddle jumper and picked me up there. That was the first time anyone had ever asked me how much I weighed before getting on a plane. That's a different world down there and one more suitable to vacations than permanent living imo. That being said, hopefully everything gets back to normal in short order.

BigBluePappy
09-11-2017, 06:25 PM
Getting asked how much you weigh before a flight is not bad; it is when the response from the personnel there is "Oh S***", that you need to worry.:tongue08:

CitizenBBN
09-11-2017, 06:44 PM
About 30 years ago I was offered a job at the Marine Institute on Big Pine Key but turned them down. I'm sure it was just me but it seemed so isolated at the time. I thought I was at the end of the world lol. It probably didn't help to ease my fears any that they flew me from Miami to Marathon on a puddle jumper and picked me up there. That was the first time anyone had ever asked me how much I weighed before getting on a plane. That's a different world down there and one more suitable to vacations than permanent living imo. That being said, hopefully everything gets back to normal in short order.

I'm hoping for permanent, but yes it does feel like the end of the world, even though it's vastly more populated than it was then. Back then it was really sparse, esp. on the lower keys other than Key West. Now Big Pine is basically a suburb bedroom community of Key West. Same for Sugarloaf, Cudjoe, all of them.

It still has its own feel though, despite the influx of people. It's people who want that feel for the most part, so it has maintained some of that charm.

CitizenBBN
09-11-2017, 08:22 PM
From a Miami Herald report:

Not that the locals mind — by Sunday afternoon, as Irma’s winds continued to slam the island, two bars on Duval Street had already reopened. They were packed.


The Department of Defense announced (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/1305558/update-of-dod-response-to-hurricane-irma/) Monday that all 10,000 people who chose to stay in the Keys might have to be evacuated until basic services come back.

Of course they were back in the bars. As long as the club soda holds out they'll be fine till water is restored, and electricity being out won't be the end of the world. They'll be fine.

But if the government really tries to come in and remove everyone, that will be a real show. Lots of locals already talking about not leaving next time b/c now they can't get back.

jazyd
09-11-2017, 10:19 PM
Not bad


Doc, glad all is well, maybe we can do another FF in the future. You and sun at were in my prayers

HerbTarlek
09-12-2017, 12:22 AM
From Atlanta. . . a lot of rain. Some wind. Nothing worse than a midsummer thundershower.

Doc
09-12-2017, 05:48 AM
I got power back in the middle of the night. Good thing as my generator was failing. Developed an oil leak and shut down. Was leaking around a hose so I clamped it which seemed to work but also noted the bolts in the top of the engine were loose. Got it running but needs a complete service prior to the next storm

kingcat
09-12-2017, 07:56 AM
Very glad you folks got through alright.

dan_bgblue
09-12-2017, 11:45 AM
105 degrees in Ft Lauderdale at this time. That has to be miserable for those there and with no electricity. Thanks to the weather widget above for giving me the temperature

Doc
09-12-2017, 12:50 PM
105 degrees in Ft Lauderdale at this time. That has to be miserable for those there and with no electricity. Thanks to the weather widget above for giving me the temperature

Yeah but with the humidity it feels like 106!!

KSRBEvans
09-12-2017, 02:09 PM
I was stationed in Puerto Rico when Hugo came through in '89. We were without power for 5 weeks. The thing that struck me most was how the slightest movement caused me to sweat profusely. You don't realize how important A/C is until you find yourself without it in a tropical climate.

KentuckyWildcat
09-12-2017, 04:03 PM
What is Jose going to do? Hoping to leave out for Amelia Island on Friday but right now they are not allowing anyone on the island.

Doc
09-13-2017, 11:15 AM
I was listening to the radio today. I'm amazed at how much damage there is here. I mean I'm shocked that FL is in such shambles. I was totally unaware of it driving to work today on the streets. I didn't even come across a boat in the middle of the road or a roof that had been displaced. Worse damage I can find is that I could not find a damn cup of coffee anywhere because panera, starbucks and the bagel shop isn't open. The media has so overblown the damage but then anything to make viewers watch. Hey, the Keys got hit and lots of folks don't have power. Guess what, those w/o power have generators because 90% of the people in FL have them. And if they don't, those people are in a hotel. I'm serious, life here is pretty much back to normal, and if you see a newcast that tells you otherwise, don't believe it. Sure, there are piles of tree debris but big deal. People in FL are prepared for this type of thing. Its like people in Alaska who get a snow storm. You know how to deal with it by being prepared, and dealing with the effects. Granted there are going to cases where folks take advantage of services like FEMA, anything to get something for free, but for the most part Floridians are moving on. Hell, I'm going to Universal this weekend for Halloween Horror Night!!!

CitizenBBN
09-13-2017, 11:43 AM
Doc, you are so right. The media will say anything for ratings.

Yes there was flooding and obviously damage, but the version that this was some kind of "bomb went off" state wide event is false.

The Keys were hit hard, but Key West is pretty much fine other than waiting for electricity. The other lower and middle keys are far worse off, but honestly not much more than after any hurricane event, of which there have been several to hit them. Boats are up on land, of course mobile homes and RVs are strewn around.

It's not good, and given the access issues it will take a while to fix everything, but it will be fixed, and it will be months and not years. It will be days and weeks for most of it.

Bad storm, but not the end of the world.

Doc
09-13-2017, 02:17 PM
Doc, you are so right. The media will say anything for ratings.

Yes there was flooding and obviously damage, but the version that this was some kind of "bomb went off" state wide event is false.

The Keys were hit hard, but Key West is pretty much fine other than waiting for electricity. The other lower and middle keys are far worse off, but honestly not much more than after any hurricane event, of which there have been several to hit them. Boats are up on land, of course mobile homes and RVs are strewn around.

It's not good, and given the access issues it will take a while to fix everything, but it will be fixed, and it will be months and not years. It will be days and weeks for most of it.

Bad storm, but not the end of the world.

Some of the pictures I've seen could have been taken BEFORE the storm. I mean a trailer with a bunch of trash up against it isn't a rarity in the FL, or any other state for that matter. They go out and drive for an hour, find a boat or two blown onto the road and take a picture of it, then make it sound like that is a typical occurrence. The county I live in had about 80% of the population w/o power after the storm but today maybe 20% and as I said everybody has generators. If you live in FL, a portable generator is pretty much a standard home appliance. When I moved here I had no idea how to back plug one and people thought I was an idiot. When the storm ended, I was out within 30 min pulling limbs off the road so we could get out and folks where there with chainsaws cutting limbs...because its just what you do. Today there is 100% access to anywhere you want to go, but if you watch the news you would think we are underwater, or living in piles of garbage. I'm expecting reports of cannibalism. 95% of the people here are back to normal as far are our lives go. Sure, we have to repair our houses, throw some shingles on the roof, fix up the busted screens, clean up the yard, replace some tree and fences.... and areas that are flooded like Jacksonville isn't "Jacksonville" but rather the areas on the city by the St John's river. Jacksonville isn't underwater, like they would have you believe. The "news" so misrepresents reality that its a joke.

CitizenBBN
09-13-2017, 08:07 PM
I will say things are sounding worse in the lower and middle keys. Key west seems OK, but looting and even armed robbery reports are coming out of the other harder hit keys, as well as real water and food shortages.

I imagine with all the air lifting of supplies and soldiers they will be OK in a day or two, but it sounds like those folks were really ill prepared. There are some stores and such on those islands that may have supplies, but not many.

Sounds like they aren't heavily armed enough either. Read one report that they were asking for water, food and weapons to be able to defend their homes. I guarantee you this much, I'm not going into any situation like that without a good reliable assault rifle, probably an SKS and at least 1 sidearm.

Should get back to being at least tolerable there quickly, and it's not the end of the world there for most, but it would seem that the laid back approach of the Keys may not be the best plan for bad weather. Hard to imagine Key West as the Keys leader in responsibility and planning.

CitizenBBN
09-13-2017, 08:12 PM
Also mosquitoes are a growing problem. The only thing that makes those islands tolerable for human habitation is a heavy spraying program to keep the mosquitoes down. key West was able to be OK from the early 1800s on, but those other islands were considered all but inhabitable. They were used for some farming operations in the past and such, but people would hole up at night to keep away from being eaten alive by them.

There's a great old story about a guy who imported bats to get rid of them to open a resort there, lots of history. But the mosquitoes really are horrid there and with people in open air situations now I bet it's really not fun.

blueboss
09-14-2017, 01:35 AM
What is Jose going to do? Hoping to leave out for Amelia Island on Friday but right now they are not allowing anyone on the island.

Let me know how Amelia fared. Mrs boss and I were curious after the over blown Jacksonville news reports.

I was told by a local one time that after a big storm shark teeth are more plentiful, maybe even a prehistoric meglodon or two...


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KentuckyWildcat
09-14-2017, 07:05 PM
Let me know how Amelia fared. Mrs boss and I were curious after the over blown Jacksonville news reports.

I was told by a local one time that after a big storm shark teeth are more plentiful, maybe even a prehistoric meglodon or two...


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Will do Boss. I called today and they are letting visitors on the island now so we will get to go. Power was still and issue yesterday. Just hope everything still looks nice. This is a bucket list trip and likely the only time we will go so we hope we enjoy it.

note: we could go back but I suspect it will be a while if do unless we really really really love it.

KentuckyWildcat
09-14-2017, 07:29 PM
The weather looks to be in our favor. About 85 and sunny/mostly sunny nearly every day. Hope that holds true.