Harvey

[Darrell KSR]

What a monster.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170826/92cc3ce64984f67652fc6768c4fd6533.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170826/74a92c90c176e1c64a49fd469d828947.jpg

[CitizenBBN]

Quickly downgrading now that it's over land, but will still dump a lot of water and wind.

[blueboss]

Gonna be a real soaker...


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[Darrell KSR]

It's that 35 inches of rain that is going to be the problem. I saw one projection that it might be as much as 60 inches.

[Doc]

Most folks who don't understand hurricanes focus on the catagory/wind speed but in most cases that isn't the issue. The problem is the rainfall which is a result of how fast it moves, as in storm speed. If the thing is barely moving like Harvey, it dumps water and keeps dumping water. Thats where your issues are. If the storm doesn't move you can't get to fixing stuff either, ie returning electical service, etc. Personally I'd rather get hit with a cat 3 moving at 30 mph than a cat 1 moving at 5 mph.
Its also important if you are on the wet side or the dry side. The northeast side is the wet you want the eye to pass to the east of you so you get less rainfall.

Of course TX got the double whammy with a slow moving cat 4.

[CitizenBBN]

Yep, this will be about the rain and resulting flooding, as well as the inability to function b/c of the rain. If it sits there and just keeps raining, which is what it looks like it will do, that's where the biggest damage will be done.

[Darrell KSR]

Hopefully it will move out before they expect.

[dan_bgblue]

Current forward movement is 2 mph. It was forecast to do a U turn and head back to the gulf but now they forecast it to move north, which is a lot better, but picking up speed would be nice as well.

[Darrell KSR]

Current forward movement is 2 mph. It was forecast to do a U turn and head back to the gulf but now they forecast it to move north, which is a lot better, but picking up speed would be nice as well.
Thank heaven for small favors.

[blueboss]

I rode out Hurricane David in '79. It was unique because it basically came from the south and rode the entire east coast of Fl. It made landfall about 20 miles south of us in between W Palm and Jupiter. I do remember the eye going directly over us which is flat out weird. You think it's over and really it's just half time.

It was a monster but the mountains of Cuba knocked it down from a 4-5 and down to a 2 when we got it.

Anyway I'm not sure what was worse the extended period of sustained winds, the heavy flooding, or the tornados that kicked up out of it.... the storm was rough enough but loss of resources was unbearable. No food, no water, no power.

Ironically some time later I ran away to Ky for a timeout and Hurricane Fredrick came up through the gulf kicked the crap out of Alabama and made its way to the Ohio Vally where heavy rains caused huge problems in both Ky and IN.

If I recall the early '80's was no picnic either with slow moving depressions throwing down buckets of water.

Thoughts and prayers to al those in the path.


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[Darrell KSR]

More than 24 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in Houston, the National Weather Service reported Sunday morning.

[Darrell KSR]

Houston. More rain expected. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170827/112f27e846a53fe4ab2bbfae81a1508e.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170827/1dbc692f9b90de5e5bfc76609187a86d.jpg

[Darrell KSR]

The middle picture is from last year, obviously before Harvey.

[Darrell KSR]

Couple more tweets. Prayers for the millions affected. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170827/a02135b28f39446d838811294f670f7e.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170827/a01ec796a2b3b6ba51e764500ecba05b.jpg

[Darrell KSR]

Current pic of downtown Houston. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170827/0d3cd830d8c3374e4c7047d7a77e10b4.jpg

[Darrell KSR]

Please, people. Don't.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/901838993498800130/video/1

[Doc]

Please, people. Don't.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/901838993498800130/video/1

Sorry but that is just effin stupid. We see this all the time here with hurricanes or floods. Always some guy with a pick'em up truck who thinks he is all that and a bag of potato chip where he can drive thru anything because, well, he has a pick up truck and he knows how to drive even when the police, rescue and fire dept have all said stay off the roads...usually its because he needs either beer or free water

[Doc]

I rode out Hurricane David in '79. It was unique because it basically came from the south and rode the entire east coast of Fl. It made landfall about 20 miles south of us in between W Palm and Jupiter. I do remember the eye going directly over us which is flat out weird. You think it's over and really it's just half time.

It was a monster but the mountains of Cuba knocked it down from a 4-5 and down to a 2 when we got it.

Anyway I'm not sure what was worse the extended period of sustained winds, the heavy flooding, or the tornados that kicked up out of it.... the storm was rough enough but loss of resources was unbearable. No food, no water, no power.

Ironically some time later I ran away to Ky for a timeout and Hurricane Fredrick came up through the gulf kicked the crap out of Alabama and made its way to the Ohio Vally where heavy rains caused huge problems in both Ky and IN.

If I recall the early '80's was no picnic either with slow moving depressions throwing down buckets of water.

Thoughts and prayers to al those in the path.


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When Francis and Jeanne hit in 2004, they both made landfall at Sewall Point, then over Stuart, then Palm City (that is maybe 7 miles as the crow flies) a month apart. I live in Palm City. We went outside in the eye of one of the two, and there was a weird orange hue to the sky. Reminded me of a scene from the movie "The Final Countdown". The eye is just a really odd weather occurance. Of course was also got out the kite and flew it in the early feeder bands. And for one of the first hurricanes we were here, probably 1994 or 95, we headed to the beach. Was a cat 1 and had never wxperienced a hurricane. I recall getting out of the car and looking for the train because that is how it sounded. When you came over the dune to the beach you were sandblasted. It was amazing!

[dan_bgblue]

https://s.w-x.co/brays-bayou-sudduth.gif

https://s.w-x.co/houston-45-white-oak.gif

https://s.w-x.co/white-oak-bayou-instagram.gif

[Darrell KSR]

Wow, those images, Dan.

[Darrell KSR]

Toll road. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170827/2f1440bdc4c1015de7ced5c42d5eec24.jpg

[blueboss]

I just saw a weather report showing multiple models where Harvey is going to move south east back out over the gulf and hook back around to re-impact the Houston area around Wednesday.


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[Darrell KSR]

Real photo. They have been rescued since this photo.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIQiiN0WAAMLQZi.jpg:large

[blueboss]

No play book on this one...

Harvey is now gaining energy off of its own rainfall. It's moving so slowly that it's sucking up the energy over the warm water that it has deposited. It's referred to as the "brown ocean effect"

My source is CNN so take it FWIW.


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[dan_bgblue]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[dan_bgblue]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/272046.shtml

[Darrell KSR]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/272046.shtml

Some scary stuff from your link, Dan. A couple of excerpts:

Harvey is drifting toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow southeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast on Monday and meander just offshore through Monday night.

Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.

Oh. My. Gosh.

[Darrell KSR]

Houston Mayor defending his decision not to issue a mandatory evac order. Tough call, I think. His point was that it wasn't in the direct path of Harvey, and if it isn't well thought out and planned, putting the city's 2.3 million residents on the streets toward evacuation could be a nightmare. In fact, the Houston/Harris County combination is 6.5 million residents.

That could have been catastrophic on its own.

[dan_bgblue]

This may be one of the few Aug-Sep gulf storms that pounded Texas or southwest LA that I have tracked in the last several years that winds up NOT being a rain maker for KY. Most of the time the storm tracks up the Mississippi river and then bends to the east and dumps rain and spanking winds on us.

[CitizenBBN]

Please, people. Don't.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/901838993498800130/video/1

I don't know what is more funny and sad about that video. That he was so completely stupid to drive into a lake, or that once he got out he swam up to the front and IMO tried to stop it and pull it back.

That's doubling down on stupid.

https://i.stack.imgur.com/jiFfM.jpg

[CitizenBBN]

Some scary stuff from your link, Dan. A couple of excerpts:

Harvey is drifting toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow southeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast on Monday and meander just offshore through Monday night.

Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.

Oh. My. Gosh.

50 inches. Wow. I don't know what the record rainfall for something like this in the US is but surely that's close to one. I don't even know what you do with that.

If Lexington got 50" my house would be OK b/c we picked REALLY high ground (we're above the aptly named High Street), but downtown lexington would finally get that lake the Webbs wanted. My neighborhood would be lakefront property and Rupp would be an indoor fishing pond. I can't even imagine what it would look like. My gallery would be toast.

Insane numbers.

[CitizenBBN]

I looked it up and apparently this is old hat, I guess it what Dan was alluding to. The 24 hour record is Alvin Texas, outside of Houston, in 1979 from a tropical storm. 43 inches. The total for the storm was 45 inches, but 43 of it was in one day.

[Darrell KSR]

Sorry but that is just effin stupid. We see this all the time here with hurricanes or floods. Always some guy with a pick'em up truck who thinks he is all that and a bag of potato chip where he can drive thru anything because, well, he has a pick up truck and he knows how to drive even when the police, rescue and fire dept have all said stay off the roads...usually its because he needs either beer or free water
Yessir. Makes me mad as he'll and I don't have to suffer those fools in person as you do. I'm the first to feel bad for anybody suffering (OK, maybe not the first, but I do feel bad), but the line is drawn when they create their own hazards.

[Darrell KSR]

I looked it up and apparently this is old hat, I guess it what Dan was alluding to. The 24 hour record is Alvin Texas, outside of Houston, in 1979 from a tropical storm. 43 inches. The total for the storm was 45 inches, but 43 of it was in one day.
That's crazy. This is Noah's ark stuff.

[CitizenBBN]

That's crazy. This is Noah's ark stuff.

It was interesting reading.

The largest 12 hour rain was recorded in Pennsylvania of all places, so not from a tropical storm, just a storm. Got 34 inches in 12 hours, but they think that 28 of it fell in 3 hours. The article said it stripped hillsides to the bedrock.

The record for an hour is 13.8 inches in a town in West Virginia in the 40s.

The record for 1 minute is 1.23 inches. That's over 70" an hour. That is apparently also the world's record for rainfall, and it was in Maryland. Personally I'd bet some tropical areas have seen more but it was just never recorded by anyone, but that's a ton.

But in my view that makes this storm in Texas one of the "right up there" rainfalls with the national records if they really get up in that 50" range. It will be over days but still just as crazy an amount of rain as it appears to be.

[blueboss]

Houston's 911 has received 56,000 calls in the last 24 hours. In a typical 24 hour period Houston's 911 service receives 8000 calls.


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[blueboss]

This may be one of the few Aug-Sep gulf storms that pounded Texas or southwest LA that I have tracked in the last several years that winds up NOT being a rain maker for KY. Most of the time the storm tracks up the Mississippi river and then bends to the east and dumps rain and spanking winds on us.

Yet.


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[dan_bgblue]

5 day Harvey precip forecsst

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0917WPCQPF+gif/211730WPCQPF_sm.gif

[Catfan73]

Probably going to be wet in Hattiesburg Saturday.

[MickintheHam]

This may be one of the few Aug-Sep gulf storms that pounded Texas or southwest LA that I have tracked in the last several years that winds up NOT being a rain maker for KY. Most of the time the storm tracks up the Mississippi river and then bends to the east and dumps rain and spanking winds on us.
It will be over Kentucky Bend on Friday and everyone in Western Ky should get a soak and possibly a tornado or two.

[Darrell KSR]

Probably going to be wet in Hattiesburg Saturday.
Looks like it.

[Catfan73]

Wonder how long fire ants can float around before they ALL drown?

http://news.opera-api.com/news/detail/66227b43564350328ee6276010b6bfd2_us

[Darrell KSR]

Wonder how long fire ants can float around before they ALL drown?

http://news.opera-api.com/news/detail/66227b43564350328ee6276010b6bfd2_us
Too long.

[MickintheHam]

Probably going to be wet in Hattiesburg Saturday.

It appears to me the storm will be clear of Hattiesburg on Sat. Doesn't mean it won't rain. It rains there most every day this time of year.

[Darrell KSR]

Hopefully not much more... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170829/431232e8bc407257761f3cec022eea63.jpg

[Darrell KSR]

And... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170829/549c3d88248d07982beee5c5e83899f3.jpg

[Darrell KSR]

Records. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170829/83ec5ae8f8003a08b9d32d914d13cc0c.jpg

[Darrell KSR]

This forecast is good news, isn't it? https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170829/e0aaae380e369c9303a7cb060860d2f6.jpg

[Catonahottinroof]

As it relates to the game Saturday, yes it is.

[Darrell KSR]

Snakes....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIVlx56XYAA-0h8.jpg

Fire ants...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRYPcRUEAAZPv-.jpg:large


Alligators...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIU2OkyXgAEbNZU.jpg:large

All Hurricane Harvey issues...

[Darrell KSR]

UK Equipment Staff preparing contributions of gear to send to Coach Sampson at Houston, who is organizing the effort.

UK is always on the forefront of charitable endeavors. It makes me proud. Calipari has already sent some stuff, I think, in addition to a $150k contribution from the charity fundraising alumni game.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIavmMoVoAExW8h.jpg:large

[UKHistory]

It is like the plagues in Egypt. Heart breaking.

This is an unbelievable amount of rain. Several years ago I flew to Houston on business. Torrential down pour (relatively speaking) hit the city. I was struck how the water (3 inches) stood and the area started to flood.

No city was built for this type of weather. But the city doesn't do well with heavy rains.

Terrible story and the pictures are terrifying.

[Darrell KSR]

Seattle, Washington has an average annual rainfall of 37".https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170830/4d3d56ad3be32bf4958cea0c63b62c74.jpg

[Catfan73]

Bayou: a marshy arm, inlet, or outlet of a lake, river, etc., usually sluggish or stagnant.

We need to stop living where the water is supposed to be.

[blueboss]

They have the same amount of water on the ground that would be equal to 15 days of flow over Niagara Falls.


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[Doc]

Ugh....I'm watching Irma pretty closely now. Coming off Africa, already a Cat 2 and predicted to come bearing down on me although some models have it going into the Gulf and even hitting the Texas coast. That would be a real pisser, huh! However most models have it hitting the east coast of FL middle of next week. Hopefully the models are wrong and it turns north before it hits Puerto Rico.

[Catonahottinroof]

On the news today, it was stated that the amount of area under water in Texas was roughly the size of Lake Michigan. That is astounding and absolutely dwarfs what Katrina did in New Orleans. Mind boggling.

[CitizenBBN]

Bayou: a marshy arm, inlet, or outlet of a lake, river, etc., usually sluggish or stagnant.

We need to stop living where the water is supposed to be.


I put up a thread on the Barber shop b/c I was worried about it being a big controversial here, but it revisits the fact that as early as 1998 there was a report on how government is skewing the market in several ways to basically cause these disasters.

Obviously they don't make it rain, but they do have a lot of control over whether people build right in the low lying area in the path of that rain. Houston is a low lying area, and they have paved over the bayous and marsh lands there and now we're surprised when it rains a bunch and it floods.

It got into the federal flood insurance programs, Houston's long time lack of control over zoning and development, etc. Even back then Houston was cited as one of the worst situations in the country, where numerous homes had been flooded repeatedly and paid out. The record was in Houston, paid out 16 or 18 times.

So a lot of this is people simply building where it isn't wise to build.

[Catfan73]

It floods every time in rains in parts of southwest Jefferson County here in Louisville. Residents always want to blame the Metropolitan Sewer District but one glance at a map shows it's in a flood plain.

[Catfan73]

Speaking of rain in Louisville, we're supposed to get remnants of Harvey starting around midnight tonight, some of it pretty heavy. The high tomorrow is only forecast for 64 degrees.

[dan_bgblue]

Looks like BG is in for a lot of liquid sunshine, but fortunately it is only bringing moderate winds with it.

[blueboss]

Ugh....I'm watching Irma pretty closely now. Coming off Africa, already a Cat 2 and predicted to come bearing down on me although some models have it going into the Gulf and even hitting the Texas coast. That would be a real pisser, huh! However most models have it hitting the east coast of FL middle of next week. Hopefully the models are wrong and it turns north before it hits Puerto Rico.

I think you might luck out on Irma, the Gulf Stream may move it more northward...


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[dan_bgblue]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/OHX_loop.gif

[Darrell KSR]

Tornado warnings here, but just a tad north of me, I believe.

[dan_bgblue]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/HTX_0.png

[kingcat]

Why did they have to go and name it Harvey? It just sounds mean and contrary.
I told someone way before it raised up its ugly head that was a bad name.

[Catfan73]

Looks like Hattiesburg will be dry tomorrow. Well, hot and humid but no rain.

[Darrell KSR]

Why did they have to go and name it Harvey? It just sounds mean and contrary.
I told someone way before it raised up its ugly head that was a bad name.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/2d/0d/6b/2d0d6b04848d5c2f552da1a3f1a9b64a.jpg

[Doc]

Always room for humor


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubWVHsiY70s

[Darrell KSR]

Oh that's funny lol.

[dan_bgblue]

6.7 inches of rain in my back yard since 8:00 pm yesterday.

[Catfan73]

Wow.

[Doc]

Oh that's funny lol.

I think that is Joe the Plumber

[Catfan73]

6.7 inches of rain in my back yard since 8:00 pm yesterday.

Most of Louisville has gotten about 1.5 to 2 inches since midnight. Would have been a good day to stay in bed.

[Darrell KSR]

Worst headline ever? Maybe not, but this one gets you where it hurts.

Harvey horror: Shivering tot found clinging to drowned mom (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/harvey-horror-shivering-tot-found-clinging-to-drowned-mom/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=41608032)

[dan_bgblue]

7.29 inches of rain at home in the last 24 hours and still raining lightly