So...I was attempting to get an idea of possible tropical weather a month from now...

[Darrell KSR]

Realizing that was a total crapshoot a month out, trying to guess what a week's weather would be, I wanted to check some very general guidelines. I did a basic google search, and it looks like...

Nobody has a clue lol. Check this out.

Is it....

Above-average?

Below-Average?

6643

[CitizenBBN]

I'd just ask Dan. If he doesn't have the answer there isn't one.

[BigBluePappy]

^^^^^^
This.
That man has the inside scoop when it comes to all things meteorological.

[dan_bgblue]

Average is 12 named storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean basin during the "season" with 4 of them Cat 3 and above. Land fall storms and Hurricanes in the coastal US are a mixed bag. The US has been very fortunate for several years with few storms actually slamming into the coastal areas. There has already been one tropical storm this year that provided a lot of rain for the eastern gulf coastal area, but that early developed storm is not a predictor for the remainder of the "season".

Peak times for storms runs from the first of August to the end of September, but that is a historical average of the number of storms that have spun up. They could have formed in the mid Atlantic, the Caribbean or in the Gulf.

As to the main question about predicting storms for a specific week, it can not be done. Weather is just too dang random.

[suncat05]

dan, you pretty much nailed that answer. That is one of the best answers to the question of that topic I have ever seen. Good job!

[blueboss]

Realizing that was a total crapshoot a month out, trying to guess what a week's weather would be, I wanted to check some very general guidelines. I did a basic google search, and it looks like...

Nobody has a clue lol. Check this out.

Is it....

Above-average?

Below-Average?

6643

Where are you headed? That has a little bit to do with it as well.

For instance we travel to Amelia Island from time to time and while the area has been affected by tropical weather they have never had a direct hit.

Might lose a few days of seaside activities, but not get forced out with a mandatory evacuation. Much like Cindy that came up into the northern gulf. We had friends in Gulf Shores at the time and they basically polished up on their card skills and did a lot of shopping. They also headed eastward for a day trip which had it not been raining they might never had done.


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[dan_bgblue]

If nothing spins up in the gulf, which could happen after this long trough passes thru in a few days, I am predicting TS free weather for you at month's end. IF, and that is a huge if, the remnants of Don actually stay together as a wave while traveling west, there might be a chance that the tail end of the trough could catch it and spin it up allowing for northern movement of an energetic low pressure area, into favorable conditions for development in the central to east central gulf. Just my untrained observations today.

[Darrell KSR]

Much appreciated--so maybe the first of August will be good beach-going. Never know....

[MickintheHam]

Much appreciated--so maybe the first of August will be good beach-going. Never know....

There is no forecast for jellyfish, algae or the red tide.

[Darrell KSR]

Meh. Who gets in the water anyway?

[dan_bgblue]

Don died today when he ran into a strong easterly headwind. The tail end of that front over the east coast and southern
Florida is doint it's best to spin up a full fledged depression in the central gulf, but I do not think it has a chance of developing.
will look at it again in the morning though.