TIPP/IBD Poll

[KeithKSR]

The most accurate poll once again.

http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/ibdtipp-poll-nails-it-again/

[Doc]

Keith, you were very accurate as well in your persistent claim the polls were wrong. I've always felt the same. Polls always overvalue the left due to the media bias in creation and evaluation. However this year was even more skewed by voter embarrassment. Most didn't want to admit they were voting for Trump. I know I didn't because I didn't want to argue, or have to defend voting for a racist hate monger.

[KeithKSR]

Pundits were admitting that the shy Trump voters did exist as the late results rolled in. I think there was not enough credence put into the 3/4 of the country who felt we were headed in the wrong direction as a country.

[badrose]

I wonder how the 90 million people without jobs voted. Seriously, I've no idea.

[KSRBEvans]

Hollywood screenwriter William Goldman famously said about the movie business, "Nobody knows nothing," and I think that applies to the current state of political analytics generally and polling specifically. We live in a time where it's difficult to get a consistently accurate sample, and so you get wildly divergent numbers. The day before the election I saw 2 New Hampshire polls: one had Clinton up by 1, and 1 had her up by 11 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html). Give me a break. Even the Trump campaign and RNC's internal polls were significantly off in important areas.

And even if you get an accurate read, what does that mean? HRC is probably going to win the popular vote by a point, maybe a little more, but she's going to lose the electoral college and it won't be especially close. This will be the 2nd in the last 5 elections where a candidate lost the popular vote and won the Presidency.

People who do the number side of political science have to take a serious look at how they do business, on many levels.

[dan_bgblue]

Interesting read on Google searches (http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2016/11/09/did-google-search-data-provide-clue-to-trumps-shock-election-victory.html). An alternative to polling?

[Doc]

Actually the NATIONAL polls were correct based on the popular vote. Hillary is likely going to win that by a small percentage which is what most predicted. Where they were wrong is the individual states.

[CitizenBBN]

It's why I never cared about the "national" polls. Why poll for a number that doesn't determine anything? If every single Californian votes for her it doesn't mean anything versus 50.00001% voting for her, so why even measure that way?

In the end it was about Trump reaching marginal voters and getting them and traditional conservatives to turn out and vote, while Hillary didn't get as many of her potential supporters to bother with it. I doubt there's any amount of money that can be spent to construct polls to pre-answer whether people will really go down and get in line and vote or not. It's too subjective to be measured, wont know till we open up the polls and see who shows up.

[Doc]

Its interesting because Trump was supposidly about SUPPRESSING voter turnout yet it was voter turn out that helped him. There is little doubt his voters turned out while hers didn't.

[CitizenBBN]

Article on the two that got it a lot more right, and both tried to adjust to deal with whether voters would actually turn out:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/09/how-two-polls-predicted-trumps-surprise-victory.html

[jazyd]

Voters who have not voted in some time turned out,ask Mick, Evangelicals turned out in record numbers which was huge, blue collar workers changed from Obama voters to Trump voters, which is all it took in states to give Trump the slim margins in several states.

For me also, God was in control. But that doesn't mean HE was going to give me what I wanted just because of what Hillary is. HE allowed Obama to be elected twice. But this time, based on Evangelicals turning out in record numbers, with pastors urging their members to get out and support Trump, I honestly believe this time Christians prayed in earnest, asked HIM to change the direction of this country, Trump picked a man for VP that was firm in his faith who doesn't apologize for it, IMO this time God answered to give us another chance. I know some here don't accept this or believe it, buT I do

[BigBluePappy]

It doesn't matter who is president, Christ is still King.