Electoral College "Beat The Odds", Anyone?

[KSRBEvans]

Pick the number of electoral votes for HRC and DJT, and closest wins.

For reference, here's the 2012 electoral map as a starting point:

http://freedomslighthouse.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2012electoralmapresultsfinal110812.jpg

and here's a link to an interactive electoral college map if you want to do some real-time what-iffing:

http://www.270towin.com/

[KSRBEvans]

Not saying this is going to happen, but I think Trump's absolute best scenario is keeping the 2012 Romney states and flipping

Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Iowa
New Hampshire
Colorado
Nevada.

That gives him 279 electoral votes.

I just don't think Pennsylvania is doable for him, close polls notwithstanding. Every election Republicans think they can offset the Philadelphia-Pittsburgh Democrat advantage and every election they come up short. If he wins Pennsylvania then I think it's going to be a very good night for him.

OTOH, IMHO HRC's absolute best would be keeping the Obama states and flipping

North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona

to give her 374 electoral votes. Taking Arizona and Georgia would be very good signs for her, but she doesn't need them.

I'll give my prediction later.

[Darrell KSR]

Haven't examined it closely enough, but less than Obama 2012, more than 270 for HRC, less than that for DT. I'll try to come up with a number later.

It's sorta sickening to think about, though :).

[KSRBEvans]

My prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/8zJ7A.png

I think NH, NC and Nevada are seriously in play, and if he gets those he gets to 270 exactly. But at the same time Florida and Ohio could easily go HRC's way (especially Florida). IMHO the map above is the most likely result.

[dan_bgblue]

I did my own map this morning but could not figure out how to bring it here like you did. I had NC and MI going to Trump and that is the only difference between your map and mine

[KeithKSR]

The map has changed a lot today. The tossups are now North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire. Trump is needs to hang onto the Red states, win those tossups, and get one leans Dem state to win. Early voting indicates a likely lead for Trump with 7,360 more Republicans voting early in Colorado than Dems.

[Darrell KSR]

5885

[Darrell KSR]

I've got Trump at 284. We'll see.

[KeithKSR]

Here's what I did yesterday. The only missed pick so far is Colorado. 5894

[KSRBEvans]

Well, that was interesting! And way off for me!

For the nuts and bolts of how it happened--especially on the HRC side--I like this article (http://cookpolitical.com/story/10170) by Charlie Cook. (I also like this (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/life-outside-the-liberal-bubble) from J.D. Vance on why the white working class came out so strong for Trump and why so many missed it.) Hillary did worse than Obama 2012 with
Young Voters (55% to Obama's 60%)
African Americans (88% vs 93%)
Latinos (65% vs 71%)
Asian Americans (65% vs 73%).

As Cook said, the Obama coalition basically works only for Obama. Not only did it not hold together sufficiently for HRC, but as Obama leaves office he will have seen a marked decrease in Democrats in the Senate, House of Representatives, Governors and state legislatures from when he took office.

Meanwhile, many people who didn't like or trust Trump at historic levels voted for him, anyway. We live in a time when people have had it with Washington and want change like a person stranded in the desert wants a drink of water. It's the age of populism. I thought it was coming in 2012 and was part of the "poll unscrewing" fad that hoped to explain how Romney could be losing when it was clear so many people were unhappy with Obama. That turned out not to be the case and I let it affect how I looked at this year's election. Probably what I should have seen was that Romney was a horrible choice to carry that message in 2012 and Trump, as flawed as I still believe him to be, was pretty close to a perfect populist choice this season. This is especially true when he was running against Hillary, the embodiment of what so many people hate about Washington and establishment politicians.

As I saw someone tweet today, is there a German word for euphoric dread? Because that's what I feel today. I'm very glad that HRC will never see the White House, but still very concerned about Trump as President. I liked what I heard from him last night (this morning) in his acceptance speech, and I hope I'm as wrong about what he'll be like as President as I was about his chances to win. My prayers are with him.